Chadtech Chadtech

April 2017 November 2018 Calibration Predictions

What is a Calibration prediction?

Here is how this works. Write down as many predictions as you can think of. They dont necessarily have to be things you think will happen, just things that could happen. Next, for each prediction, give your most sincere guess as to what the probability is that it will occur. If you think theres a 50% chance of it happening then you should assign it 50% (Assign 30% to 30% likely ones, 80% to 80% likely ones, etc).

Why would you do this?

Calibration predictions are a way of measuring your own objectivity about future events. If I were truly objective in my expectations about the future, then 50% of the things I expect to have 50% probability of occuring, should occur. If 90% of the things I think have a 50% chance of happening, then something is way off in how I am thinking about the world. If you were objective, then you would see things like 90% of the ones rated "90% likely" would come true.

Finding out how you'v

	import qualified Prelude as P
	import qualified Data.Text.Lazy.IO as TIO
	import qualified Data.Text.Lazy as T
	import Data.Text.Lazy ( Text )
	import qualified System.Directory as SysDir
	import qualified Data.List as List
	import CtBasic
	import Flow

	{-# LANGUAGE OverloadedStrings, GeneralizedNewtypeDeriving #-}


	module Main (main) where

	import Prelude.Extra
	import Flow

	import qualified Audio
	import Audio (Audio)

	module Modal exposing
	( view
	, headerView
	, Msg(..)
	)


	import Html.Styled exposing (Html)
	import Html.Styled.Attributes as Attrs

	module BigLoadingState exposing (update)


	type Model
	= Loading LoadingModel
	\| Loaded LoadedModel


	type alias LoadingModel =
	{ name : Maybe String

	module Main exposing (main)

	import Browser
	import Html exposing (Html, button, div, text)
	import Html.Events exposing (onClick)
	import Component

	type alias Model =
	{ count : Int
	, component : Component.Model

	validatePassword : String -> Result String ValidPassword
	validatePassword password =
	validate password passwordConditions


	passwordConditions : List (String -> Bool, String)
	passwordConditions =
	[ (isBlank, "Password can't be empty")
	, (isTooShort, "Password too short")
	]

	{-# LANGUAGE OverloadedStrings, GeneralizedNewtypeDeriving #-}


	module Main (main) where

	import Control.Applicative
	import qualified Control.Concurrent.STM as STM
	import qualified Control.Monad.Reader as CMR
	import Data.Default.Class
	import Data.String

	type alias Fields =
	{ data1 : Maybe String
	, data2 : Maybe Int
	, data3 : Maybe Bool
	}


	type alias Submission =
	{ data1 : String
	, data2 : Int

	export enum MaybeType {
	Just = 'Just',
	Nothing = 'Nothing',
	}

	interface IMaybe {
	type: MaybeType;
	}

	interface IJust<T> extends IMaybe {