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Debilski/Euro prediction.ipynb

Last active July 12, 2021 13:58
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Euro prediction.ipynb
{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"from dataclasses import dataclass\n",
"import json\n",
"from urllib.request import urlopen\n",
"from typing import Tuple"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Euro 2020/21 prediction template"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Load the data about which matches were played from this URL."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"DATA_URL = \"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lsv/uefa-euro-2020/master/data.json\""
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"dict_keys(['stadiums', 'tvchannels', 'teams', 'groups', 'knockoutphases'])"
]
},
"execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"DATA = json.loads(urlopen(DATA_URL).read())\n",
"DATA.keys()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Some peeking. What does that data look like?"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"[{'id': 'BEL',\n",
" 'name': 'Belgium',\n",
" 'rank': 1,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇧🇪',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Flag_of_Belgium.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-be:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'ITA',\n",
" 'name': 'Italy',\n",
" 'rank': 2,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇮🇹',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/03/Flag_of_Italy.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-it:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'ENG',\n",
" 'name': 'England',\n",
" 'rank': 3,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🏴\\U000e0067\\U000e0062\\U000e0065\\U000e006e\\U000e0067\\U000e007f',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/be/Flag_of_England.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-england:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'GER',\n",
" 'name': 'Germany',\n",
" 'rank': 4,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇩🇪',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/ba/Flag_of_Germany.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-de:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'ESP',\n",
" 'name': 'Spain',\n",
" 'rank': 5,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇪🇸',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/9a/Flag_of_Spain.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-es:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'UKR',\n",
" 'name': 'Ukraine',\n",
" 'rank': 6,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇺🇦',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/Flag_of_Ukraine.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-ua:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'FRA',\n",
" 'name': 'France',\n",
" 'rank': 7,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇫🇷',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c3/Flag_of_France.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-fr:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'POL',\n",
" 'name': 'Poland',\n",
" 'rank': 8,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇵🇱',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/12/Flag_of_Poland.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-pl:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'SUI',\n",
" 'name': 'Switzerland',\n",
" 'rank': 9,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇨🇭',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/Flag_of_Switzerland.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-ch:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'CRO',\n",
" 'name': 'Croatia',\n",
" 'rank': 10,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇭🇷',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Flag_of_Croatia.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-hr:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'NED',\n",
" 'name': 'Netherlands',\n",
" 'rank': 11,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇳🇱',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/Flag_of_the_Netherlands.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-nl:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'RUS',\n",
" 'name': 'Russia',\n",
" 'rank': 12,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇷🇺',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f3/Flag_of_Russia.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-ru:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'POR',\n",
" 'name': 'Portugal',\n",
" 'rank': 13,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇵🇹',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Flag_of_Portugal.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-pt:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'TUR',\n",
" 'name': 'Turkey',\n",
" 'rank': 14,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇹🇷',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Flag_of_Turkey.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-tr:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'DEN',\n",
" 'name': 'Denmark',\n",
" 'rank': 15,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇩🇰',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Flag_of_Denmark.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-dk:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'AUT',\n",
" 'name': 'Austria',\n",
" 'rank': 16,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇦🇹',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Flag_of_Austria.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-at:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'SWE',\n",
" 'name': 'Sweden',\n",
" 'rank': 17,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇸🇪',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4c/Flag_of_Sweden.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-se:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'CZE',\n",
" 'name': 'Czech Republic',\n",
" 'rank': 18,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇨🇿',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/Flag_of_the_Czech_Republic.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-cz:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'WAL',\n",
" 'name': 'Wales',\n",
" 'rank': 19,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🏴\\U000e0067\\U000e0062\\U000e0077\\U000e006c\\U000e0073\\U000e007f',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Flag_of_Wales_%281959%E2%80%93present%29.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-wales:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'FIN',\n",
" 'name': 'Finland',\n",
" 'rank': 20,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇫🇮',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/Flag_of_Finland.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-fi:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'MAC',\n",
" 'name': 'North Macedonia',\n",
" 'rank': 30,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇲🇰',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Flag_of_North_Macedonia.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-mk:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'SLO',\n",
" 'name': 'Slovakia',\n",
" 'rank': 22,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇸🇰',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e6/Flag_of_Slovakia.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-sk:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'SCO',\n",
" 'name': 'Scotland',\n",
" 'rank': 29,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🏴\\U000e0067\\U000e0062\\U000e0073\\U000e0063\\U000e0074\\U000e007f',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Flag_of_Scotland.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-scotland:'}},\n",
" {'id': 'HUN',\n",
" 'name': 'Hungary',\n",
" 'rank': 31,\n",
" 'disciplinary': 0,\n",
" 'flag': {'unicode': '🇭🇺',\n",
" 'url': 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/Flag_of_Hungary.svg',\n",
" 'slackcode': ':flag-hu:'}}]"
]
},
"execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"DATA['teams']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"[{'id': 'a',\n",
" 'name': 'Group A',\n",
" 'winner': 'ITA',\n",
" 'runnerup': 'WAL',\n",
" 'thirdplace': 'SUI',\n",
" 'fourthplace': 'TUR',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 1,\n",
" 'name': '1',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'TUR',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ITA',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 3,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-11T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'STA',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 2,\n",
" 'name': '2',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'WAL',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SUI',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-12T15:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'OLY',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 13,\n",
" 'name': '13',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'TUR',\n",
" 'away_team': 'WAL',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-16T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'OLY',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 14,\n",
" 'name': '14',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'ITA',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SUI',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-16T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'STA',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 25,\n",
" 'name': '25',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'SUI',\n",
" 'away_team': 'TUR',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-20T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'OLY',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'},\n",
" {'id': 26,\n",
" 'name': '26',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'ITA',\n",
" 'away_team': 'WAL',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-20T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'STA',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'}]},\n",
" {'id': 'b',\n",
" 'name': 'Group B',\n",
" 'winner': 'BEL',\n",
" 'runnerup': 'DEN',\n",
" 'thirdplace': 'FIN',\n",
" 'fourthplace': 'RUS',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 3,\n",
" 'name': '3',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'DEN',\n",
" 'away_team': 'FIN',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-12T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 4,\n",
" 'name': '4',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'BEL',\n",
" 'away_team': 'RUS',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-12T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'KRE',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 15,\n",
" 'name': '15',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'FIN',\n",
" 'away_team': 'RUS',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-16T15:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'KRE',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 16,\n",
" 'name': '16',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'DEN',\n",
" 'away_team': 'BEL',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-17T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 27,\n",
" 'name': '27',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'RUS',\n",
" 'away_team': 'DEN',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 4,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-21T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'},\n",
" {'id': 28,\n",
" 'name': '28',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'FIN',\n",
" 'away_team': 'BEL',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-21T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'KRE',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'}]},\n",
" {'id': 'c',\n",
" 'name': 'Group C',\n",
" 'winner': 'NED',\n",
" 'runnerup': 'AUT',\n",
" 'thirdplace': 'UKR',\n",
" 'fourthplace': 'MAC',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 6,\n",
" 'name': '6',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'AUT',\n",
" 'away_team': 'MAC',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-13T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'NAT',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 5,\n",
" 'name': '5',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'NED',\n",
" 'away_team': 'UKR',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-13T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'JOH',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 18,\n",
" 'name': '18',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'UKR',\n",
" 'away_team': 'MAC',\n",
" 'home_result': 2,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-17T15:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'NAT',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 17,\n",
" 'name': '17',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'NED',\n",
" 'away_team': 'AUT',\n",
" 'home_result': 2,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-17T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'JOH',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 29,\n",
" 'name': '29',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'MAC',\n",
" 'away_team': 'NED',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 3,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-21T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'JOH',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'},\n",
" {'id': 30,\n",
" 'name': '30',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'UKR',\n",
" 'away_team': 'AUT',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-21T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'NAT',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'}]},\n",
" {'id': 'd',\n",
" 'name': 'Group D',\n",
" 'winner': 'ENG',\n",
" 'runnerup': 'CRO',\n",
" 'thirdplace': 'CZE',\n",
" 'fourthplace': 'SCO',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 7,\n",
" 'name': '7',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'ENG',\n",
" 'away_team': 'CRO',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-13T15:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 8,\n",
" 'name': '8',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'SCO',\n",
" 'away_team': 'CZE',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-14T15:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'HAM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 19,\n",
" 'name': '19',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'CRO',\n",
" 'away_team': 'CZE',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-18T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'HAM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 20,\n",
" 'name': '20',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'ENG',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SCO',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-18T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 31,\n",
" 'name': '31',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'CRO',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SCO',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-22T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'HAM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'},\n",
" {'id': 32,\n",
" 'name': '32',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'CZE',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ENG',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-22T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'}]},\n",
" {'id': 'e',\n",
" 'name': 'Group E',\n",
" 'winner': 'SWE',\n",
" 'runnerup': 'ESP',\n",
" 'thirdplace': 'SLO',\n",
" 'fourthplace': 'POL',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 10,\n",
" 'name': '10',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'POL',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SLO',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-14T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'KRE',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 9,\n",
" 'name': '9',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'ESP',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SWE',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-14T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'CAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 21,\n",
" 'name': '21',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'SWE',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SLO',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-18T15:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'KRE',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 22,\n",
" 'name': '22',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'ESP',\n",
" 'away_team': 'POL',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-19T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'CAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 33,\n",
" 'name': '33',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'SLO',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ESP',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 5,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-23T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'CAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'},\n",
" {'id': 34,\n",
" 'name': '34',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'SWE',\n",
" 'away_team': 'POL',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-23T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'KRE',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'}]},\n",
" {'id': 'f',\n",
" 'name': 'Group F',\n",
" 'winner': 'FRA',\n",
" 'runnerup': 'GER',\n",
" 'thirdplace': 'POR',\n",
" 'fourthplace': 'HUN',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 11,\n",
" 'name': '11',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'HUN',\n",
" 'away_team': 'POR',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 3,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-15T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PUS',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 12,\n",
" 'name': '12',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'FRA',\n",
" 'away_team': 'GER',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-15T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'ALL',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '1'},\n",
" {'id': 23,\n",
" 'name': '23',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'HUN',\n",
" 'away_team': 'FRA',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-19T15:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PUS',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 24,\n",
" 'name': '24',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'POR',\n",
" 'away_team': 'GER',\n",
" 'home_result': 2,\n",
" 'away_result': 4,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-19T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'ALL',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '2'},\n",
" {'id': 35,\n",
" 'name': '35',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'POR',\n",
" 'away_team': 'FRA',\n",
" 'home_result': 2,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-23T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PUS',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'},\n",
" {'id': 36,\n",
" 'name': '36',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'group',\n",
" 'home_team': 'GER',\n",
" 'away_team': 'HUN',\n",
" 'home_result': 2,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-23T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'ALL',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '3'}]}]"
]
},
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"DATA['groups']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"{'round16': {'id': 'round16',\n",
" 'name': 'Round of 16',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 37,\n",
" 'name': '37',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'group': 'a'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'runnerup', 'group': 'c'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'ITA',\n",
" 'away_team': 'AUT',\n",
" 'home_result': 2,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'ITA',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-26T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'},\n",
" {'id': 38,\n",
" 'name': '38',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'runnerup',\n",
" 'group': 'a'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'runnerup', 'group': 'b'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'WAL',\n",
" 'away_team': 'DEN',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 4,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'DEN',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-26T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'JOH',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'},\n",
" {'id': 39,\n",
" 'name': '39',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'group': 'b'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'thirdplace', 'group': 'A/D/E/F'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'BEL',\n",
" 'away_team': 'POR',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'BEL',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-27T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'CAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'},\n",
" {'id': 40,\n",
" 'name': '40',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'group': 'c'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'thirdplace', 'group': 'D/E/F'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'NED',\n",
" 'away_team': 'CZE',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'CZE',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-27T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PUS',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'},\n",
" {'id': 41,\n",
" 'name': '41',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'group': 'f'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'thirdplace', 'group': 'A/B/C'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'FRA',\n",
" 'away_team': 'SUI',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 3,\n",
" 'home_penalty': 4,\n",
" 'away_penalty': 5,\n",
" 'winner': 'SUI',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-28T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'NAT',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'},\n",
" {'id': 42,\n",
" 'name': '42',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'runnerup',\n",
" 'group': 'd'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'runnerup', 'group': 'e'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'CRO',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ESP',\n",
" 'home_result': 3,\n",
" 'away_result': 5,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'ESP',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-28T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'PAR',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'},\n",
" {'id': 43,\n",
" 'name': '43',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'group': 'e'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'thirdplace', 'group': 'A/B/C/D'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'SWE',\n",
" 'away_team': 'UKR',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'UKR',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-29T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'HAM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'},\n",
" {'id': 44,\n",
" 'name': '44',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'group': 'd'},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'runnerup', 'group': 'f'}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'ENG',\n",
" 'away_team': 'GER',\n",
" 'home_result': 2,\n",
" 'away_result': 0,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'ENG',\n",
" 'date': '2021-06-29T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '4'}]},\n",
" 'round8': {'id': 'round8',\n",
" 'name': 'Quarter-finals (Round of 8)',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 45,\n",
" 'name': '45',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'match': 41},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner', 'match': 42}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'SUI',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ESP',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'home_penalty': 1,\n",
" 'away_penalty': 3,\n",
" 'winner': 'ESP',\n",
" 'date': '2021-07-02T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'KRE',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '5'},\n",
" {'id': 46,\n",
" 'name': '46',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'match': 39},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner', 'match': 37}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'BEL',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ITA',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'ITA',\n",
" 'date': '2021-07-02T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'ALL',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '5'},\n",
" {'id': 47,\n",
" 'name': '47',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'match': 40},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner', 'match': 38}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'CZE',\n",
" 'away_team': 'DEN',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': 'DEN',\n",
" 'date': '2021-07-03T18:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'OLY',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '5'},\n",
" {'id': 48,\n",
" 'name': '48',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'match': 43},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner', 'match': 44}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'UKR',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ENG',\n",
" 'home_result': 0,\n",
" 'away_result': 4,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': None,\n",
" 'date': '2021-07-03T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'STA',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '5'}]},\n",
" 'round4': {'id': 'round4',\n",
" 'name': 'Semi-finals (Round of 4)',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 49,\n",
" 'name': '49',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'match': 46},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner', 'match': 45}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'ESP',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ITA',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'home_penalty': 2,\n",
" 'away_penalty': 4,\n",
" 'winner': 'ITA',\n",
" 'date': '2021-07-06T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '6'},\n",
" {'id': 50,\n",
" 'name': '50',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'match': 48},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner', 'match': 47}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'DEN',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ENG',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 2,\n",
" 'home_penalty': None,\n",
" 'away_penalty': None,\n",
" 'winner': None,\n",
" 'date': '2021-07-07T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '6'}]},\n",
" 'round2': {'id': 'round2',\n",
" 'name': 'Final',\n",
" 'matches': [{'id': 51,\n",
" 'name': '51',\n",
" 'matchtype': 'knockout',\n",
" 'teams_found': True,\n",
" 'qualification': {'home_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner',\n",
" 'match': 49},\n",
" 'away_team': {'qualificationtype': 'winner', 'match': 50}},\n",
" 'home_team': 'ITA',\n",
" 'away_team': 'ENG',\n",
" 'home_result': 1,\n",
" 'away_result': 1,\n",
" 'home_penalty': 3,\n",
" 'away_penalty': 2,\n",
" 'winner': 'ITA',\n",
" 'date': '2021-07-11T21:00:00+02:00',\n",
" 'stadium': 'WEM',\n",
" 'tvchannels': [],\n",
" 'finished': True,\n",
" 'matchday': '7'}]}}"
]
},
"execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"DATA['knockoutphases']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Use some fancy Python dataclasses to handle the data"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"@dataclass\n",
"class Team:\n",
" id: str\n",
" name: str\n",
" flag: str"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"@dataclass\n",
"class Match:\n",
" home_team: str\n",
" away_team: str\n",
" result_no_pen: Tuple[int]\n",
" result_penalty: Tuple[int] = (None, None)\n",
" @property\n",
" def result(self) -> Tuple[int]:\n",
" return (\n",
" self.result_no_pen[0] + (self.result_penalty[0] or 0),\n",
" self.result_no_pen[1] + (self.result_penalty[1] or 0)\n",
" )\n",
" def __repr__(self):\n",
" return f\"{self.home_team}:{self.away_team} {self.result}\""
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"teams = {\n",
" t['id']: Team(t['id'], t['name'], t['flag']['unicode'])\n",
" for t in DATA['teams']\n",
"}"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"{'BEL': Team(id='BEL', name='Belgium', flag='🇧🇪'),\n",
" 'ITA': Team(id='ITA', name='Italy', flag='🇮🇹'),\n",
" 'ENG': Team(id='ENG', name='England', flag='🏴\\U000e0067\\U000e0062\\U000e0065\\U000e006e\\U000e0067\\U000e007f'),\n",
" 'GER': Team(id='GER', name='Germany', flag='🇩🇪'),\n",
" 'ESP': Team(id='ESP', name='Spain', flag='🇪🇸'),\n",
" 'UKR': Team(id='UKR', name='Ukraine', flag='🇺🇦'),\n",
" 'FRA': Team(id='FRA', name='France', flag='🇫🇷'),\n",
" 'POL': Team(id='POL', name='Poland', flag='🇵🇱'),\n",
" 'SUI': Team(id='SUI', name='Switzerland', flag='🇨🇭'),\n",
" 'CRO': Team(id='CRO', name='Croatia', flag='🇭🇷'),\n",
" 'NED': Team(id='NED', name='Netherlands', flag='🇳🇱'),\n",
" 'RUS': Team(id='RUS', name='Russia', flag='🇷🇺'),\n",
" 'POR': Team(id='POR', name='Portugal', flag='🇵🇹'),\n",
" 'TUR': Team(id='TUR', name='Turkey', flag='🇹🇷'),\n",
" 'DEN': Team(id='DEN', name='Denmark', flag='🇩🇰'),\n",
" 'AUT': Team(id='AUT', name='Austria', flag='🇦🇹'),\n",
" 'SWE': Team(id='SWE', name='Sweden', flag='🇸🇪'),\n",
" 'CZE': Team(id='CZE', name='Czech Republic', flag='🇨🇿'),\n",
" 'WAL': Team(id='WAL', name='Wales', flag='🏴\\U000e0067\\U000e0062\\U000e0077\\U000e006c\\U000e0073\\U000e007f'),\n",
" 'FIN': Team(id='FIN', name='Finland', flag='🇫🇮'),\n",
" 'MAC': Team(id='MAC', name='North Macedonia', flag='🇲🇰'),\n",
" 'SLO': Team(id='SLO', name='Slovakia', flag='🇸🇰'),\n",
" 'SCO': Team(id='SCO', name='Scotland', flag='🏴\\U000e0067\\U000e0062\\U000e0073\\U000e0063\\U000e0074\\U000e007f'),\n",
" 'HUN': Team(id='HUN', name='Hungary', flag='🇭🇺')}"
]
},
"execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"teams"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"group_matches = [\n",
" Match(m['home_team'], m['away_team'], (m['home_result'], m['away_result']))\n",
" for g in DATA['groups']\n",
" for m in g['matches']\n",
"]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"[TUR:ITA (0, 3),\n",
" WAL:SUI (1, 1),\n",
" TUR:WAL (0, 2),\n",
" ITA:SUI (3, 0),\n",
" SUI:TUR (3, 1),\n",
" ITA:WAL (1, 0),\n",
" DEN:FIN (0, 1),\n",
" BEL:RUS (3, 0),\n",
" FIN:RUS (0, 1),\n",
" DEN:BEL (1, 2),\n",
" RUS:DEN (1, 4),\n",
" FIN:BEL (0, 2),\n",
" AUT:MAC (3, 1),\n",
" NED:UKR (3, 2),\n",
" UKR:MAC (2, 1),\n",
" NED:AUT (2, 0),\n",
" MAC:NED (0, 3),\n",
" UKR:AUT (0, 1),\n",
" ENG:CRO (1, 0),\n",
" SCO:CZE (0, 2),\n",
" CRO:CZE (1, 1),\n",
" ENG:SCO (0, 0),\n",
" CRO:SCO (3, 1),\n",
" CZE:ENG (0, 1),\n",
" POL:SLO (1, 2),\n",
" ESP:SWE (0, 0),\n",
" SWE:SLO (1, 0),\n",
" ESP:POL (1, 1),\n",
" SLO:ESP (0, 5),\n",
" SWE:POL (3, 2),\n",
" HUN:POR (0, 3),\n",
" FRA:GER (1, 0),\n",
" HUN:FRA (1, 1),\n",
" POR:GER (2, 4),\n",
" POR:FRA (2, 2),\n",
" GER:HUN (2, 2)]"
]
},
"execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"group_matches"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"knockout_matches = [\n",
" Match(m['home_team'], m['away_team'], (m['home_result'], m['away_result']), (m['home_penalty'], m['away_penalty']))\n",
" for round_name, round_data in DATA['knockoutphases'].items()\n",
" for m in round_data['matches']\n",
"]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"[ITA:AUT (2, 1),\n",
" WAL:DEN (0, 4),\n",
" BEL:POR (1, 0),\n",
" NED:CZE (0, 2),\n",
" FRA:SUI (7, 8),\n",
" CRO:ESP (3, 5),\n",
" SWE:UKR (1, 2),\n",
" ENG:GER (2, 0),\n",
" SUI:ESP (2, 4),\n",
" BEL:ITA (1, 2),\n",
" CZE:DEN (1, 2),\n",
" UKR:ENG (0, 4),\n",
" ESP:ITA (3, 5),\n",
" DEN:ENG (1, 2),\n",
" ITA:ENG (4, 3)]"
]
},
"execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"knockout_matches"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Finally, we need a function that evaluates our predictions:"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def evaluate(match: Match, predict_fn, log=True):\n",
" \"\"\" Takes a match and a prediction function and returns\n",
" the number of points given to the prediction.\n",
" \"\"\"\n",
" result = match.result\n",
" res_diff = result[0] - result[1]\n",
" predicted = predict_fn(match.home_team, match.away_team)\n",
" pred_diff = predicted[0] - predicted[1]\n",
" \n",
" if result == predicted:\n",
" points = 4\n",
" elif res_diff == pred_diff and res_diff != 0:\n",
" points = 3\n",
" elif res_diff == pred_diff and res_diff == 0:\n",
" points = 2\n",
" elif (res_diff > 0 and pred_diff > 0) or (res_diff < 0 and pred_diff < 0):\n",
" points = 2\n",
" else:\n",
" points = 0\n",
" if log:\n",
" print(f\"Evaluating match {match}. Your prediction: {predicted}. {points} points.\")\n",
" return points"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Model prediction"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"We are blindly following the ranking in table 9 from https://www.zeileis.org/assets/posts/2021-06-10-euro2020paper/euro2020-hybridforecasts.pdf \n",
"\n",
"We will assume that the higher team wins against the lower team 1:0. (NB. we are ignoring the fact that the table is actually telling us the chance of a team to win the Euros and not what its chances are to win against another team. But it’s the only table in the paper that comes with flags *and* numbers and we’re lazy and don’t read the rest of the paper.)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"The teams from the paper."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"hybrid_paper_teams = ['FRA', 'ENG', 'ESP', 'POR', 'GER', 'BEL', \n",
" 'ITA', 'NED', 'DEN', 'CRO', 'SUI', 'AUT',\n",
" 'POL', 'SWE', 'TUR', 'WAL', 'SCO', 'RUS',\n",
" 'CZE', 'UKR', 'SLO', 'FIN', 'MAC', 'HUN']"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"hybrid_paper_ranking = {t:rank for rank, t in enumerate(hybrid_paper_teams)}"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Our prediction function."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 18,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"def predict(t1, t2):\n",
" # simple rule: the team with the better (= lower) ranking in the paper\n",
" # wins by 1:0\n",
" rk1 = hybrid_paper_ranking[t1]\n",
" rk2 = hybrid_paper_ranking[t2]\n",
" if rk1 < rk2:\n",
" return (1, 0)\n",
" else:\n",
" return (0, 1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Match points"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 19,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"*** Group matches ***\n",
"Evaluating match TUR:ITA (0, 3). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match WAL:SUI (1, 1). Your prediction: (0, 1). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match TUR:WAL (0, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ITA:SUI (3, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match SUI:TUR (3, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ITA:WAL (1, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 4 points.\n",
"Evaluating match DEN:FIN (0, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match BEL:RUS (3, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match FIN:RUS (0, 1). Your prediction: (0, 1). 4 points.\n",
"Evaluating match DEN:BEL (1, 2). Your prediction: (0, 1). 3 points.\n",
"Evaluating match RUS:DEN (1, 4). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match FIN:BEL (0, 2). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match AUT:MAC (3, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match NED:UKR (3, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 3 points.\n",
"Evaluating match UKR:MAC (2, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 3 points.\n",
"Evaluating match NED:AUT (2, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match MAC:NED (0, 3). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match UKR:AUT (0, 1). Your prediction: (0, 1). 4 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ENG:CRO (1, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 4 points.\n",
"Evaluating match SCO:CZE (0, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match CRO:CZE (1, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ENG:SCO (0, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match CRO:SCO (3, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match CZE:ENG (0, 1). Your prediction: (0, 1). 4 points.\n",
"Evaluating match POL:SLO (1, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ESP:SWE (0, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match SWE:SLO (1, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 4 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ESP:POL (1, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match SLO:ESP (0, 5). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match SWE:POL (3, 2). Your prediction: (0, 1). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match HUN:POR (0, 3). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match FRA:GER (1, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 4 points.\n",
"Evaluating match HUN:FRA (1, 1). Your prediction: (0, 1). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match POR:GER (2, 4). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match POR:FRA (2, 2). Your prediction: (0, 1). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match GER:HUN (2, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Group stage score: 61 points.\n",
"\n",
"*** Knockout matches ***\n",
"Evaluating match ITA:AUT (2, 1). Your prediction: (1, 0). 3 points.\n",
"Evaluating match WAL:DEN (0, 4). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match BEL:POR (1, 0). Your prediction: (0, 1). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match NED:CZE (0, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match FRA:SUI (7, 8). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match CRO:ESP (3, 5). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match SWE:UKR (1, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ENG:GER (2, 0). Your prediction: (1, 0). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match SUI:ESP (2, 4). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match BEL:ITA (1, 2). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match CZE:DEN (1, 2). Your prediction: (0, 1). 3 points.\n",
"Evaluating match UKR:ENG (0, 4). Your prediction: (0, 1). 2 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ESP:ITA (3, 5). Your prediction: (1, 0). 0 points.\n",
"Evaluating match DEN:ENG (1, 2). Your prediction: (0, 1). 3 points.\n",
"Evaluating match ITA:ENG (4, 3). Your prediction: (0, 1). 0 points.\n",
"Knockout stage score: 19 points.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"print(\"*** Group matches ***\")\n",
"\n",
"group_score = sum(evaluate(m, predict) for m in group_matches)\n",
"print(f\"Group stage score: {group_score} points.\")\n",
"\n",
" \n",
"print()\n",
"print(\"*** Knockout matches ***\")\n",
"\n",
"knockout_score = sum(evaluate(m, predict) for m in knockout_matches)\n",
"print(f\"Knockout stage score: {knockout_score} points.\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Bonus points"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"The group firsts from that list would have been: FRA, ENG, ~ESP~, BEL, ITA, NED"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 20,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"group_firsts_score = 4 * 5"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"I’m too lazy to simulate the whole knock-out stage to predict the semi-finalists. We’ll just take the top 4 from the ranking: ~FRA~, ENG, ~ESP~, ~POR~"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"semi_finalists_score = 4 * 1"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Total score"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 22,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"104"
]
},
"execution_count": 22,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"group_score + knockout_score + group_firsts_score + semi_finalists_score"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": []
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "base",
"language": "python",
"name": "base"
},
"language_info": {
"codemirror_mode": {
"name": "ipython",
"version": 3
},
"file_extension": ".py",
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.8.6"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 4
}
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