Marc Jacobs MJacobs1985
MJacobs1985
/ M5.3A
Last active
December 2, 2021 13:01
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| d<-Book%>%dplyr::select(ADG,ADF,Country) | |
| d$Country<-as.factor(d$Country) | |
| d<-as.data.frame(d) | |
| fit<-lm(ADG~ADF+Country, data=d);summary(fit) | |
| dn <- mltools::one_hot(as.data.table(d)) | |
| dn$B <- dn$Country_Belgium | |
| dn$I <- dn$Country_Italy | |
| dn$P <- dn$Country_Poland | |
| dn$S <- dn$Country_Spain | |
| dn$UK <- dn$Country_UK |
MJacobs1985
/ Compare models
Created
December 2, 2021 12:52
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| rethinking::compare(m4.3, m4.5, m4.6, func=WAIC ) | |
| plot(rethinking::compare(m4.3, m4.5, m4.6, func=WAIC )) |
MJacobs1985
/ m4.5_m4.6
Created
December 2, 2021 12:50
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| par(mfrow = c(1, 3)) | |
| d$ADF_s2 <- d$ADF^2 | |
| fit <-lm(ADG~ADF+ADF_s2, data=d) | |
| m4.5 <- quap( | |
| alist( | |
| ADG ~ dnorm( mu , sigma ) , | |
| mu <- a + b1*ADF + b2*ADF_s2 , | |
| a ~ dnorm (30 , 16 ) , | |
| b1 ~ dlnorm(1 , 1 ) , | |
| b2 ~ dnorm (0.5 , 1 ) , |
MJacobs1985
/ m51
Last active
December 2, 2021 12:33
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| par(mfrow = c(1, 4)) | |
| N <- 50 | |
| dN <- d[ 1:N , ] | |
| mN51 <- quap( | |
| alist( | |
| ADG ~ dnorm( mu , sigma ) , | |
| mu <- a + b*(ADF) , | |
| a ~ dnorm(mean(d$ADG) , sd(d$ADG) ) , | |
| b ~ dlnorm( 0 , 1 ) , | |
| sigma ~ dunif( 0 , 50 ) |
MJacobs1985
/ mN
Created
December 2, 2021 12:19
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| par(mfrow = c(1, 2)) | |
| N <- 100 | |
| dN <- d[ 1:N , ] | |
| mN <- quap( | |
| alist( | |
| ADG ~ dnorm( mu , sigma ) , | |
| mu <- a + b*(d$ADF) , | |
| a ~ dnorm(mean(d$ADG) , sd(d$ADG) ) , | |
| b ~ dnorm(0.6153863 , 0.02) , | |
| sigma ~ dunif( 0 , 50 ) |
MJacobs1985
/ m4.3
Last active
December 2, 2021 12:01
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| set.seed(2971) | |
| N <- 100 # 100 lines | |
| a <- rnorm( N , mean(d$ADG) , sd(d$ADG) ) | |
| b <- rlnorm(1e4, as.vector(coef(fit)[2]) , 1 ) | |
| par(mfrow = c(2,2)) | |
| dens(a) | |
| dens( b , xlim=c(0,5) , adj=0.1 ) | |
| abline(v=as.vector(coef(fit)[2]), lty=2, col="red") | |
| m4.3 <- quap( | |
| alist( |
MJacobs1985
/ ADG ~ADF
Created
December 2, 2021 11:53
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| par(mfrow = c(2, 2)) | |
| fit<-lm(ADG~ADF, data=d);fit;plot(fit);summary(fit) | |
| par(mfrow = c(1, 3)) | |
| plot(d$ADG ~ d$ADF ) | |
| set.seed(2971) | |
| N <- 100 # 100 lines | |
| a <- rnorm(N , 3.7 , 2 ) | |
| b <- rnorm(N , 0.6 , 2 ) | |
| plot( NULL , xlim=range(d$ADF) , ylim=range(d$ADG) , | |
| xlab="ADF" , ylab="ADG" ) |
MJacobs1985
/ m4.2
Created
December 2, 2021 11:52
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| m4.2 <- quap( | |
| alist( | |
| ADG ~ dnorm( mu , sigma ) , | |
| mu ~ dnorm( 70 , 1 ) , | |
| sigma ~ dunif(6 , 10 ) | |
| ) , data=d ) | |
| precis( m4.2 ) |
MJacobs1985
/ m4.1
Created
December 2, 2021 11:47
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| flist <- alist( | |
| ADG ~ dnorm( mu , sigma ) , | |
| mu ~ dnorm( 70 , 20 ) , | |
| sigma ~ dunif( 6 , 50 )) | |
| m4.1 <- quap( flist , data=d ) | |
| precis( m4.1 ) | |
| par(mfrow = c(1, 2)) | |
| start <- list( | |
| mu=mean(d$ADG), | |
| sigma=sd(d$ADG)) |
MJacobs1985
/ gist:53816137398aa49e75cf040d2b99ce1a
Created
December 2, 2021 11:46
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| par(mfrow = c(1, 3)) | |
| d3 <- sample( d$ADG , size=20 ) | |
| mu.list <- seq( from=60, to=70 , length.out=200 ) | |
| sigma.list <- seq( from=5 , to=10 , length.out=200 ) | |
| post2 <- expand.grid( mu=mu.list , sigma=sigma.list ) | |
| post2$LL <- sapply( 1:nrow(post2) , function(i) | |
| sum( dnorm( d3 , mean=post2$mu[i] , sd=post2$sigma[i] , | |
| log=TRUE ) ) ) | |
| post2$prod <- post2$LL + dnorm( post2$mu , mean(d$ADG) , sd(d$ADG) , TRUE ) + | |
| dunif( post2$sigma , 0 , 50 , TRUE ) |