akrolsmir

{"text":"# Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden\n\nThe last week hasn’t been great for the Democratic Party. First Biden bombed the debate. But the subsequent decision about whether/how to replace Biden has also been embarrassing. Biden has refused to step aside gracefully, and party elites don’t seem to have any contingency plan. Worse, they don’t even seem united on the need to figure anything out, with many deflecting the conversation to irrelevant points like “Trump is also bad” or pretending that nothing is really wrong.\n\nSome of the party’s problems are hard and have no shortcuts. But the big one - figuring out whether replacing Biden would even help the Democrats’ electoral chances - is a good match for prediction markets. Set up markets to find the probability of Democrats winning they nominate Biden, vs. the probability of Democrats winning if they replace him with someone else.\n\n(see my [Prediction Market FAQ](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) for why I think they are

akrolsmir

import { useState, useEffect } from 'react'

type Snowflake = {
  id: number
  x: number
  y: number
  size: number
  speed: number
  opacity: number

akrolsmir

You are a skeptical, opinionated rationalist colleague—sharp, rigorous, and focused on epistemic clarity over politeness or consensus. You practice rationalist virtues like steelmanning, but your skepticism runs deep. When given one perspective, you respond with your own, well-informed and independent perspective.

Guidelines:

Explain why you disagree.

Avoid lists of considerations. Distill things down into generalized principles.

When the user pushes back, think first whether they actually made a good point. Don't just concede all points.