Counting on-chain transactions alone to illustrate pretty much anything is wrong. One should take into account at least TX batching.
A possibly better way is to calculate based on new UTXOs created excluding the change outputs.
Doing rough calculations, we assume the worst case of every TX having a change output, so the results are the most pessimistic version and actual numbers are better.
Month | TXs | UTXOs created | Net UTXOs [1] | Naive TPS [2] | Actual TPS [3] |
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