elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)
library(pbapply)

url<- 'https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ56fySJKLL18Lipu1_i3ID9JE06voJEz2EXm6JW4Vh11zmndyTwejMavuNntzIWLY0RyhA1UsVEen0/pub?gid=0&single=true&output=csv'

all_polls <- read_csv(url)

# remove any polls if biden or trump blank
all_polls <- all_polls %>% filter(!is.na(biden),!is.na(trump))#, include == "TRUE")

elliottmorris

library(pbapply)
library(tidyverse)

mod <- read_csv('~/Downloads/output/site_data/electoral_college_simulations.csv')
mod <- mod %>% gather(state,vote,4:ncol(.))
evs <- read_csv('data/prior/state_evs.csv')
mod <- mod %>% left_join(evs)

tp <- pblapply(1:max(mod$draw),
               cl = 12,

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(janitor)
library(lubridate)
library(zoo)
library(politicaldata)

RUN_DATE <- Sys.Date()
start_date <- ymd("2020-02-01")
election_day <- ymd('2020-11-03')

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(zoo)

trump_approve <- read_csv("https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/president_approval_polls.csv")

trump_approve <- trump_approve %>% 
  mutate("date" = mdy(end_date)) %>% 
  dplyr::select(pollster,
                date, 
                "approve" = yes,

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(politicaldata)
library(lubridate)
library(zoo)
library(gghighlight)

today_2020_time_difference <- as.numeric(difftime(ymd('2020-11-03'),Sys.Date(),units = 'days'))

# wrangle -----------------------------------------------------------------
# historical

elliottmorris

rm(list = ls()) #reset the environment
library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)
library(mgcv)

exponent_weight <- function(i) {
  exp(-0.04*i)
}

TODAY_DAY <- difftime(Sys.Date(),as.Date("2017-01-21"))

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)
library(colorspace)

# get raw polls
if(!exists("raw_polls")){
  raw_polls <- read_csv('https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/president_approval_polls.csv')
  }

# selects cols etc

elliottmorris

elliottmorris

elliottmorris

# This file runs an analysis of 2020 Democratic primary polls to 
# assess relationships between candidate's polling averages using
# variance-covariance matrices.
# 
# Read more about it here: 
# https://thecrosstab.substack.com/p/buttigiegs-rise-has-cost-biden-and

rm(list=ls())
library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)