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fela / zane_zaphyr.md
Last active December 27, 2025 05:34
A story by Bing Chat
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fela / gpt_fda.txt
Created March 30, 2023 20:06
GPT Analisis of file
# Assistant:
{"comment": "Printing first few lines of the file", "python": "with open('food-enforcement.json') as f:\n for i in range(3):\n print(f.readline().strip())"}
## Extracting comment:
Printing first few lines of the file
## Extracting python code:
with open('food-enforcement.json') as f:
for i in range(3):
print(f.readline().strip())
## Do you want to execute this code? (y/n)
y
@fela
fela / manifold_tips.md
Created November 27, 2024 14:55
Manifold tips

Market making in high-volatility market. Most of my profits come from market making in highly volatile markets. When there are polarizing questions, and the market swings back and forth, it's a good time to set limit orders.

Think about when news can come in. Understanding when news might drop is crucial for deciding how long to keep limit orders open. If no meaningful new information is expected, limit orders are relatively safe. If news is likely, be more careful.

Set deadlines on your limit orders. Leaving limit orders open indefinitely makes you vulnerable to adverse selection—your order will fill only when it's a bad deal for you. Always set a deadline.

Understand how news can move the price. News often only moves the price in one direction, while the price may naturally drift the other way over time. For example, in "Will X happen by T?" markets, it's usually safer to put limit orders on YES, but buying NOs means you risk only getting filled if X has already happened. Bye bye mana.