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March 13, 2026 03:35
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| Single smartest addition to the plan right now: | |
| Add a closed-loop “Value Router” (autonomous work allocator) that scores backlog items by expected merge value per agent-hour, then dynamically spawns/pauses/ | |
| resumes sessions based on live outcomes. | |
| Why this is the highest-leverage gap: | |
| - You already have backlog auto-claim and decomposition, but it is mostly label/FIFO + fixed capacity (MAX_CONCURRENT_AGENTS = 5) in services.ts. | |
| - You already collect rich telemetry (success/failure, reasons, durations) in observability, but it is not yet feeding scheduling decisions | |
| (observability.md). | |
| - You already have reaction/lifecycle machinery; this would become the optimizer layer above it. | |
| What makes it radically accretive: | |
| - It turns AO from “automation runner” into a self-optimizing execution system. | |
| - Every run improves future prioritization (which issue types, repos, agents, and decomposition patterns actually ship fastest with least rework). | |
| - It compounds throughput and merge quality without increasing operator overhead. | |
| If you want, I can draft the minimal V1 spec and implement the first scorer + scheduler loop behind a config flag. | |
| Use a normalized expected-value score per candidate issue: | |
| MergeValue = (P_merge_24h * BusinessImpact * StrategicFit * Confidence) / ExpectedAgentHours | |
| Practical breakdown: | |
| - P_merge_24h (0..1): model from your own history by repo/label/agent/type. | |
| - Signals: similar issue merged rate, CI pass-on-first-try rate, review churn, reopen rate. | |
| - BusinessImpact (1..5): configurable weight from labels/metadata. | |
| - Example: customer-facing=5, reliability=4, tech-debt=2. | |
| - StrategicFit (0.8..1.3): multiplier for current priorities. | |
| - Example: if this sprint targets onboarding, onboarding-labeled issues get +30%. | |
| - Confidence (0.6..1.2): evidence quality factor. | |
| - Clear acceptance criteria/tests/decomposition quality increase it. | |
| - ExpectedAgentHours: predicted completion time from past runs. | |
| - Include expected retries from CI/review loops. | |
| Then schedule by descending MergeValue subject to constraints: | |
| - max parallel sessions, | |
| - fairness per project, | |
| - dependency/blocked checks. | |
| Start simple: | |
| 1. Hand-tuned weights + rule-based estimates. | |
| 2. Log predicted vs actual. | |
| 3. Replace each component with learned models once you have enough data. |
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