2015 経済動学 講義資料 (2015-07-06)

2015-07-06.ipynb

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   "cell_type": "markdown",
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   "source": [
    "# Policy Iteration\n",
    "\n",
    "Stachurski (2008) Chapter 10"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "skip"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%matplotlib inline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "from scipy.interpolate import interp1d\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "## ラムゼーモデル\n",
    "\n",
    "再掲"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "class Ramsey:\n",
    "    \"\"\"One-sector Ramsey model\"\"\"\n",
    "\n",
    "    def __init__(self, A, α, ρ):\n",
    "        self.A, self.α, self.ρ = A, α, ρ\n",
    "\n",
    "    def f(self, x):\n",
    "        \"\"\"Production function\"\"\"\n",
    "        return self.A * x ** self.α\n",
    "\n",
    "    def U(self, x):\n",
    "        \"\"\"Utility from consumption\"\"\"\n",
    "        return np.log(x)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def u(self, x, y):\n",
    "        \"\"\"Reduced form utility\"\"\"\n",
    "        return self.U(self.f(x) - y)\n",
    "\n",
    "    def is_feasible(self, x, y):\n",
    "        \"\"\"Checks feasibility\"\"\"\n",
    "        return self.f(x) >= y"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "## 解析解\n",
    "\n",
    "再掲"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def analytic_solutions(A, α, ρ):\n",
    "    c0 = (1.0 / (1.0 - α * ρ) / (1.0 - ρ) * np.log(A) +\n",
    "          α * ρ * np.log(α * ρ) / (1.0 - α * ρ) / (1.0 - ρ) +\n",
    "          np.log(1.0 - α * ρ) / (1.0 - ρ))\n",
    "    c1 = α / (1.0 - α * ρ) \n",
    "    \n",
    "    def value_func(x):\n",
    "        return c0 + c1 * np.log(x)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def policy_func(x):\n",
    "        return ρ * c1 * A * x**α / (1.0 + ρ * c1)  ## Fixed this line\n",
    "        \n",
    "    return value_func, policy_func"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "## 線形近似\n",
    "\n",
    "前回より実用的に ... "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "class PLApprox:  # Refactored this class\n",
    "    def __init__(self, a, b, N, upsample=10):\n",
    "        self.a, self.b, self.N = a, b, N\n",
    "        self.grids = np.linspace(a, b, upsample*N)\n",
    "        self.centers = np.linspace(a, b, N)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def proj(self, f):\n",
    "        return np.array([f(c) for c in self.centers])\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def inj(self, a):\n",
    "        return interp1d(self.centers, a)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "# Policy Iteration"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "任意の $x \\in X$, に対して $(x, f(x)) \\in \\mathbb{D}$ を満たす関数 $f$ を policy function という. \n",
    "\n",
    "Policy function $f$ と十分大きな $T$ について, その policy function の value\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    "    v_f(x) = \\sum_{t=0}^\\infty \\rho^t u(f^t(x), f^{t+1}(x)) \n",
    "    \\approx \\sum_{t=0}^T \\rho^t u(f^t(x), f^{t+1}(x))\n",
    "$$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def value_of_policy(f, model, apx, T):\n",
    "    fc = apx.inj(f)\n",
    "    X = apx.centers\n",
    "    Y = fc(X)\n",
    "    vf = np.zeros_like(X)\n",
    "    for i in range(T):\n",
    "        vf += model.ρ**i * model.u(X, Y)\n",
    "        X, Y = Y, fc(Y)\n",
    "    return vf"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "Policy の更新則: $f\\to v_f \\to \\hat f$ \n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    "  \\hat f (x) = \\arg\\max_y u(x, y) + \\rho v_f(y)\n",
    "$$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def greedy(vf, model, apx):\n",
    "    vc = apx.inj(vf)\n",
    "    Y = apx.grids\n",
    "    fhat = np.empty_like(vf)\n",
    "    for i, x in enumerate(apx.centers):\n",
    "        X = np.ones_like(Y) * x\n",
    "        with np.errstate(invalid='ignore'):\n",
    "            maximand = np.where(model.is_feasible(X, Y),\n",
    "                                model.u(X, Y) + model.ρ*vc(Y),\n",
    "                                -np.inf)\n",
    "        fhat[i] = Y[np.argmax(maximand)]\n",
    "    return fhat"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "### Policy Iteration Algorithm\n",
    "\n",
    "\\begin{align}\n",
    "\\begin{array}{cccccc}\n",
    "f_0        &          & f_1        &          & f_2        & \\cdots & \\to & f^* \\\\\n",
    "\\downarrow & \\nearrow & \\downarrow & \\nearrow & \\downarrow &        &     &     \\\\\n",
    "v_0        &          & v_1        &          & v_2        & \\cdots & \\to & v^* \\\\\n",
    "\\end{array}\n",
    "\\end{align}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "いつものモデルで実験"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "A, α, ρ =1.1, 0.4, 0.9\n",
    "ramsey = Ramsey(A, α, ρ)\n",
    "apx = PLApprox(a=1e-3, b=5.0, N=500, upsample=100)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
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   "outputs": [
    {
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     "execution_count": 9,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
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n3Oul7BdSwT7rqed5I38/NyxegOt1Ibc897RuIhKRkOLlj6cTzOz+kuVZpYV6KPls9gKO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\nwMLcfG4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x11012bb38>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df = apx.proj(lambda x: 0.5 * ramsey.f(x))\n",
    "\n",
    "fhat = df\n",
    "for _ in range(10):\n",
    "    vf = value_of_policy(fhat, ramsey, apx, T=100)\n",
    "    fhat = greedy(vf, ramsey, apx)\n",
    "\n",
    "for _ in range(3):\n",
    "    plt.plot(apx.centers, vf)\n",
    "    vf = value_of_policy(fhat, ramsey, apx, T=100)\n",
    "    fhat = greedy(vf, ramsey, apx)\n",
    "    \n",
    "v, h = analytic_solutions(A, α, ρ)\n",
    "plt.plot(apx.grids, v(apx.grids), ':')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x110131160>]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 10,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x110131128>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plt.plot(apx.centers, fhat)\n",
    "plt.plot(apx.centers, h(apx.centers))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "## なぜ収束するのか？\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    "f_{n+1}(x) = \\arg\\max_y u(x, y) + \\rho v_n(y)\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\n",
    "に対応する作用素\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    "  T_{n+1} w (x) = u(x, f_{n+1}(x)) + \\rho w(f_{n+1}(x))\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\n",
    "を定義. \n",
    "\n",
    "3つの性質に注意:\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    " T_{n+1} v_n = v_{n+1}\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    " T_{n+1} v_n = Tv_n\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    "  v \\le w \\Longrightarrow T_{n+1}v \\le T_{n+1}w\n",
    "$$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "### 価値の単調性\n",
    "\n",
    "\\begin{align}\n",
    "v_n(x) &= u(x, f_n(x)) + \\rho v_n(f_n(x)) \\\\\n",
    "       &\\le u(x, f_{n+1}(x)) + \\rho v_n(f_{n+1}(x)) \\\\\n",
    "       &=: T_{n+1} v_n(x) \\\\\n",
    "       &\\le T_{n+1}^2 v_n(x) \\\\\n",
    "       &\\le \\cdots \\\\\n",
    "       &\\to v_{n+1}(x)\n",
    "\\end{align}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "### Bellman作用素 $T$ との関係\n",
    "\n",
    "\\begin{align}\n",
    "    T^n v_0 \\le v_n \\le v^*\n",
    "\\end{align}\n",
    "\n",
    "#### 証明\n",
    "\n",
    "$n=0$\n",
    "のときは自明に成り立つ. \n",
    "$n$ まで成り立つとして, \n",
    "\n",
    "\\begin{align}\n",
    "    T^{n+1} v_0 = T(T^n v_0) \\le Tv_n = T_{n+1} v_n = v_{n+1}\n",
    "\\end{align}"
   ]
  }
 ],
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