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neoyipeng2018/semanticsearchandsentiment.ipynb

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SemanticSearchAndSentiment.ipynb
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semanticsearchandsentiment.ipynb
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"<a href=\"https://colab.research.google.com/gist/neoyipeng2018/26e7dde7a9ba11d4b2018df1b5ccfb2c/semanticsearchandsentiment.ipynb\" target=\"_parent\"><img src=\"https://colab.research.google.com/assets/colab-badge.svg\" alt=\"Open In Colab\"/></a>"
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},
{
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"source": [
"#Semantic Search for Themes\n",
"Instead of finding cluster keywords, we just provide the theme title, and let semantic search go through the embedding space to find what works for us. Testing it out on 'electric vehicles'"
],
"metadata": {
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},
{
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"text": [
"Successfully installed huggingface-hub-0.4.0 pyyaml-6.0 sacremoses-0.0.47 sentence-transformers-2.1.0 sentencepiece-0.1.96 tokenizers-0.11.4 transformers-4.16.2\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
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]
},
{
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"source": [
"!pip install -U spacy\n",
"!python -m spacy download en_core_web_sm\n",
"import spacy"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "Rju3UCjsPkgF",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"outputId": "9f954292-85a8-4646-c6c8-d75c3c3ff19a"
},
"execution_count": null,
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"text": [
"Installing collected packages: catalogue, typer, srsly, pydantic, thinc, spacy-loggers, spacy-legacy, pathy, langcodes, spacy\n",
" Attempting uninstall: catalogue\n",
" Found existing installation: catalogue 1.0.0\n",
" Uninstalling catalogue-1.0.0:\n",
" Successfully uninstalled catalogue-1.0.0\n",
" Attempting uninstall: srsly\n",
" Found existing installation: srsly 1.0.5\n",
" Uninstalling srsly-1.0.5:\n",
" Successfully uninstalled srsly-1.0.5\n",
" Attempting uninstall: thinc\n",
" Found existing installation: thinc 7.4.0\n",
" Uninstalling thinc-7.4.0:\n",
" Successfully uninstalled thinc-7.4.0\n",
" Attempting uninstall: spacy\n",
" Found existing installation: spacy 2.2.4\n",
" Uninstalling spacy-2.2.4:\n",
" Successfully uninstalled spacy-2.2.4\n",
"Successfully installed catalogue-2.0.6 langcodes-3.3.0 pathy-0.6.1 pydantic-1.8.2 spacy-3.2.1 spacy-legacy-3.0.8 spacy-loggers-1.0.1 srsly-2.4.2 thinc-8.0.13 typer-0.4.0\n",
"Collecting en-core-web-sm==3.2.0\n",
" Downloading https://github.com/explosion/spacy-models/releases/download/en_core_web_sm-3.2.0/en_core_web_sm-3.2.0-py3-none-any.whl (13.9 MB)\n",
"\u001b[K |████████████████████████████████| 13.9 MB 7.0 MB/s \n",
"\u001b[?25hRequirement already satisfied: spacy<3.3.0,>=3.2.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from en-core-web-sm==3.2.0) (3.2.1)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: langcodes<4.0.0,>=3.2.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from spacy<3.3.0,>=3.2.0->en-core-web-sm==3.2.0) (3.3.0)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: setuptools in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from spacy<3.3.0,>=3.2.0->en-core-web-sm==3.2.0) (57.4.0)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: catalogue<2.1.0,>=2.0.6 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from spacy<3.3.0,>=3.2.0->en-core-web-sm==3.2.0) (2.0.6)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: tqdm<5.0.0,>=4.38.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from spacy<3.3.0,>=3.2.0->en-core-web-sm==3.2.0) (4.62.3)\n",
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"# Actual Text (warning: v long)\n",
"Found 5 recent earning call transcripts online, 1 outlier and 4 automakers\n",
"1. nextera: electrical energy company (to see how if model will pick out false positives)\n",
"1. tesla\n",
"1. ford \n",
"1. nio\n",
"1. toyota "
],
"metadata": {
"id": "XbX9wEskUc4-"
}
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"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"nextera_text=\"\"\"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Good morning and welcome to the NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Jessica Aldridge, director of investor relations. Please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Jessica Aldridge -- Director of Investor Relations\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2021 combined earnings conference call for NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners. With me this morning are Jim Robo, chairman and chief executive officer of NextEra Energy; Rebecca Kujawa, executive vice president and chief financial officer of NextEra Energy; John Ketchum, president and chief executive officer of NextEra Energy Resources; and Mark Hickson, executive vice president of NextEra Energy. All of whom are also officers of NextEra Energy Partners, as well as Eric Silagy, president and chief executive officer of Florida Power and Light Company.\n",
"\n",
"Jim will provide some opening remarks and we'll then turn the call over to Rebecca for a review of our fourth quarter and full year results. Our executive team will then be available to answer your questions. We will be making forward-looking statements during this call based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in today's earnings news release and the comments made during this conference call in the risk factors of the accompanying presentation or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our websites, nexteraenergy.com and nexteraenergypartners.com.\n",
"\n",
"10 stocks we like better than NextEra Energy, Inc.\n",
"When our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.*\n",
"\n",
"They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now… and NextEra Energy, Inc. wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.\n",
"\n",
"See the 10 stocks\n",
"\n",
"*Stock Advisor returns as of January 10, 2022\n",
"\n",
"We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure. As a reminder, Gulf Power legally merged into Florida Power and Light Company effective on January 1, 2021.\n",
"\n",
"Gulf Power continued as a separate reportable segment within Florida Power and Light and NextEra Energy through 2021, serving its existing customers under separate retail rates. Throughout today's presentation, when we refer to FPL, we are referring to Florida Power and Light, excluding Gulf Power, unless otherwise noted or when using the term combined. With that, I will turn the call over to Jim.\n",
"\n",
"Jim Robo -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, Jessica and good morning, everyone. Both NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners had an outstanding year in 2021 and are well positioned to capitalize on the substantial opportunities that lie ahead. NextEra Energy's performance was strong both financially and operationally and we executed the largest capital program in our history. Investing approximately $16 billion in American Energy infrastructure in 2021, which we expect will again place NextEra Energy among the top capital investors in the U.S.\n",
"\n",
"across all industries. Continuing our long track record of delivering value for shareholders, NextEra Energy achieved full year adjusted earnings per share of $2.55, up more than 10% from 2020. Over the past 10 years, we've delivered compound annual growth and adjusted EPS of approximately 9%, which is the highest among all top 10 U.S. power companies who have achieved, on average, compound annual growth of roughly 3% over the same period.\n",
"\n",
"Amid this significant growth, the company has maintained one of the strongest balance sheets and credit positions in the industry. In 2021, we delivered a total shareholder return of more than 23%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Utilities Index and continuing to outperform both the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Utilities Index in terms of total shareholder return on a three, five, 10 and 15-year basis. Over the past 15 years, we've outperformed nearly all of the other companies in the S&P 500 Utilities Index and quadrupled the average total shareholder return of the index. Over the same period, we've outperformed 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 while nearly tripling the average total shareholder return of the index.\n",
"\n",
"We are proud of our long-term track record of providing growth and value creation opportunities for our shareholders and we remain intensely focused on execution and continuing to drive shareholder value over the coming years. At FPL, net income increased nearly 11% year over year while continuing to deliver on its commitment to making smart, long-term investments in innovative technology, clean energy and strengthening our electric grid for the benefit of our customers. We were pleased the Florida Public Service Commission unanimously approved the settlement agreement in October, an agreement, which we believe is a fair and balanced outcome in our base rate case. The 2021 settlement agreement supports continued smart capital investments, including the largest solar build-out by a utility in the U.S.\n",
"\n",
"while keeping FPL's typical residential bills well below the national average and among the lowest in Florida through the end of 2025. For customers in Northwest Florida, typical customer bills are projected to decline over the next four years. Among the long-term infrastructure investments anticipated in the new agreement, new solar generation is expected to grow through the expanded SolarTogether community solar program which is expected to more than double over the next four years as well as through new base rate solar generation, including the nearly 1,800 megawatts to be recovered under solar base rate adjustment or SoBRA upon reaching commercial operations in 2024 and 2025. In total, our current solar build-out expectations are for approximately 4,800 megawatts of new solar over the term of the settlement agreement.\n",
"\n",
"In early 2019, FPL announced its groundbreaking role to install 30 million solar panels in Florida by 2030. With the anticipated solar additions approved under the settlement agreement, I am pleased to announce that we now expect to reach this milestone by 2025, five years earlier than previously anticipated. Including the solar additions anticipated through 2025, this ambitious 30 by 30 initiative is expected to have generated approximately $2.5 billion in fuel cost savings for customers and created more than 20,000 construction jobs while supporting the Florida economy with more than $700 million in property taxes over the life of the assets. During 2021, FPL successfully executed on its strategic initiatives, including placing another 671 megawatts of cost-effective solar and service, completing the first roughly 1,500 megawatt phase of our SolarTogether community solar program.\n",
"\n",
"Additionally, last month, we commissioned the world's largest integrated solar-powered battery system, the 409-megawatt Manatee Energy Storage Center, which will allow our customers to benefit from low-cost solar energy even during times when the sun is not shining. FPL has also continued to provide exceptional service reliability, achieving its best-ever reliability rate in 2021. And FPL was recognized for the sixth time in seven years as being the most reliable electric utility in the nation. Moreover, FPL was ranked No.\n",
"\n",
"1 in both residential and business customer satisfaction in the Southern U.S. among large electric providers by J.D. Power in 2021 and we are completely committed to continuing to provide clean, affordable and reliable service to our customers for many years to come. energy resources also had a terrific year in 2021, delivering adjusted earnings growth of 13% versus the prior year.\n",
"\n",
"The team also had an outstanding record year of renewables and storage origination, adding approximately 7,200 megawatts to our backlog during the year as we continue to capitalize on the ongoing clean energy transition that is occurring in our nation's generation fleet. Our backlog additions have grown more than 20% compound annual growth rate since 2017 and we are well on our way to meeting our current development expectations for new signed contracts. With the significant additions to our backlog of signed contracts over the last year, we've now signed nearly 80% of the megawatts needed to realize in the midpoint of our 2021 to 2024 development expectations range, with significant time remaining to sign additional power purchase agreements. Our supply chain and engineering and construction teams also continued to execute in 2021, commissioning approximately 3,800 megawatts of new wind and wind repowering, solar and storage projects.\n",
"\n",
"Over the past two years, energy resources has constructed more than 9,500 megawatts of renewables and storage projects, demonstrating the strength and resiliency of its execution expertise, even in the midst of a global pandemic and industrywide supply chain disruptions. Finally, during 2021, NextEra energy transmission its efforts to grow America's leading competitive transmission company and had its best year ever. During the year, the business delivered a record earnings contribution by increasing net income by nearly 20% over its previous earnings contribution record in 2020. Growth in renewables means that there is also a growing imperative to build additional transmission across the U.S.\n",
"\n",
"to support this transition to a low-cost, low-carbon economy fueled by renewable energy. We anticipate that NextEra energy transmission will continue to capitalize on the growing opportunity set to both deploy capital profitably as well as to enable further renewables deployment. The tremendous execution in both the major businesses in recent years, including '21, gives us great visibility to the longer-term outlook of NextEra Energy. Let me start with our opportunity set, which I would not trade with anyone in our industry.\n",
"\n",
"At Florida Power and Light, the settlement agreement allows us to focus on operating the business efficiently, reliably and affordably for the benefit of our customers. Under the new agreement, we expect our average annual growth in regulatory capital employed to be between 8% and 9% over the four-year term through 2025. When you put it all together, low bills, best-in-class reliability, award-winning customer service and a clean emissions profile are what helped FPL provide what we believe is one of the best customer value propositions in the nation. At energy resources, our outlook for new renewables and storage development remains as strong as ever and we are excited to be able to continue supporting the industry's transition away from old inefficient forms of generation and into clean, reliable, low-cost renewables and storage.\n",
"\n",
"We believe that the rapidly accelerating trend toward electrification and decarbonization of a broad range of sectors across the U.S. economy has significantly increased the total addressable market for new renewables and storage, even beyond our expectations just a few years ago and is now measured in trillions of dollars of capital investment opportunity in the coming decades. We believe that energy resources is uniquely positioned to advance its market leadership position in this environment. We have been in the renewables business for more than 30 years and have the experience, resources, balance sheet, talent and advanced data capabilities necessary to execute complex renewable energy generation and storage integration projects at scale.\n",
"\n",
"We believe we have an excellent opportunity set for continued growth ahead of us at energy resources and we will further discuss our long-term plans for deploying renewables at both energy resources and Florida Power and Light and the associated impact to our overall emissions profile and future goals at our upcoming investor conference, which we plan to hold on June 14 in New York City. With the anticipated continued strength of the investment opportunities at both Florida Power and Light and NextEra energy resources, I am pleased to announce that we are increasing our adjusted earnings per share expectations for 2022 and 2023 and introducing our expectations for 2024 and 2025. For 2022, we are now expecting our adjusted earnings per share to be in a range of $2.75 to $2.85, up from our prior range of $2.55 to $2.75. For years 23 through 25, we expect to grow our adjusted earnings per share by roughly 6% to 8% per year off the expected 2022 adjusted earnings per share.\n",
"\n",
"For 2023, this translates to a new range of $2.93 to $3.08, up from our prior range of $2.77 to $297 million. Our new adjusted earnings per share expectations for 2024 are $3.13 to $3.33. And for 2025 are $3.35 to $3.60. As always, our expectations assume our usual caveats, including normal weather and operating conditions.\n",
"\n",
"In summary, we continue to remain as enthusiastic as ever about NextEra Energy's long-term growth prospects. Based on the strength and resiliency of our underlying businesses, we will be disappointed if we are not able to deliver financial results at or near the top end of our adjusted earnings per share expectation ranges in each of 2022, '23, '24 and 2025, while at the same time, maintaining our strong credit ratings. Let me now turn to NextEra Energy Partners, which delivered a total unitholder return of approximately 30% in 2021, bringing its two-year total unitholder return up to more than 72% and further advancing its history of value creation since the IPO in 2014. For 2021, the NextEra Energy Partners grew its LP distributions per unit by 15% year over year and has now grown its distributions per unit by nearly 280% since the IPO.\n",
"\n",
"NextEra Energy Partners achieved its distribution growth objectives while maintaining a trailing 12-month payout ratio of approximately 80% as of year-end 2021. NextEra Energy Partners had a terrific year of execution in '21 and we are increasing our year-end 2021 financial expectations to reflect this better-than-expected growth execution. NextEra Energy Partners delivered year-end run rate adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution in excess of our prior expectations, including delivering more than 13% year-over-year growth in run rate cash available for distribution at the midpoints. This execution is supported by NextEra Energy Partners' outstanding portfolio of clean energy assets, which was further diversified in 2021.\n",
"\n",
"During the year, NextEra Energy Partners acquired interests in approximately 1,900 net megawatts of long-term contracted renewables and storage assets from energy resources. In addition, during the year, NextEra Energy Partners successfully completed two acquisitions of renewable energy assets from third parties, adding nearly 500 megawatts of operating wind projects to its portfolio. These transactions demonstrate NextEra Energy's ability to leverage the operational expertise of NextEra energy resources, low-cost sources of capital and our strong industry relationships to be successful in third-party acquisitions. The combination of a growing portfolio at energy resources and a growing set of opportunities to acquire renewables from third parties as well as significant organic growth opportunities, further supports the partnership's long-term growth visibility.\n",
"\n",
"NextEra Energy Partners also continued to demonstrate its ability to access attractive sources of capital to finance its growth investments, including executing on the lowest-cost convertible equity portfolio financing in its history. The roughly $820 million convertible equity portfolio financing carries a low implied cash coupon to the investor and partially funded NextEra Energy Partners acquisition of a 50% interest in a renewables portfolio, consisting of approximately 2,520 megawatts of newly constructed or in construction renewables projects and approximately 115 megawatts of integrated battery storage. NextEra Energy Partners was able to demonstrate the benefits to LP unitholders of the convertible equity portfolio financing structure during the fourth quarter when the partnership exercised its right to purchase 100% of the outstanding minority equity interests in the portfolio of wind and solar assets, supporting its 2018 convertible equity portfolio financing. Relative to issuing the same amount of common equity in 2018 to fund our growth needs.\n",
"\n",
"This financing allowed us to reduce unit issuance by more than 50% and save more than $140 million or roughly 75% in nominal cash costs while retaining the more than 80% increase in the net unit price over the last three years. NextEra Energy Partners public float has increased approximately 50% since 2019. We believe our strategy of using low-cost convertible equity products to efficiently layer in common equity over time has created significant value for existing LP unitholders. I continue to believe that the combination of NextEra Energy's partners clean energy portfolio, growth visibility and financing flexibility offers LP unitholders a uniquely attractive investor value proposition.\n",
"\n",
"As with NextEra Energy, we remain intensely focused on continuing to execute and deliver that unitholder value over the coming years. Finally, I'd like to comment on some important organizational changes that we announced this morning. These changes are part of a long-term succession process undertaken by the board and me over the better part of the last six years. Effective March 1, John Ketchum will price me as president and CEO of NextEra Energy.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca will succeed John as president and CEO of NextEra energy resources. Kirk Crews, currently vice president, business management for NextEra energy resources will succeed Rebecca as executive vice president and chief financial officer of NextEra Energy. John, Rebecca and Kirk will also be appointed to the respective roles at NextEra Energy Partners. In addition, Eric Silagy, president and chief executive officer of Florida Power and Light Company has been named chairman and chief executive officer of Florida Power and Light.\n",
"\n",
"It has been an honor and a privilege to serve as CEO for nearly 10 years. I'm as excited as I've ever been about the future prospects of NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners. A big part of a CEO's legacy is the new leader in the next-generation leadership team that follows. And I couldn't be more thrilled about turning over the CEO role of this great company to John.\n",
"\n",
"I know he will be as focused on creating value for you, our owners, as I have been over the last two decades. John has been an incredible partner to me and a senior leader in this company for more than 19 years and I can think of no better person to succeed me as CEO. John's breadth of experience across all aspects of our company, including commercial, operational, financial and legal as well as the significant leadership capabilities and vision position him exceptionally well to lead NextEra Energy to even greater heights in the coming years. I also want to congratulate Rebecca, Eric and Kirk on their new roles.\n",
"\n",
"One of the defining characteristics of this company over the last 30 years has been the quality and strength of its leadership team and I'm very proud of and excited for the team that will leave this company into the future. Most importantly, I want to thank my team and all our employees for all that they have done. Our team, the best in the business, has built this amazing company and I can't thank them enough. As the announcement mentioned, I'm going to remain as executive chairman for a transition period to support John in his new role.\n",
"\n",
"I will now turn the call over to John, who would like to make some remarks.\n",
"\n",
"John Ketchum -- President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Jim and good morning, everyone. I have been privileged to have worked with and learned from Jim during an incredible period of growth for our company and I am honored to have the opportunity to lead this company in the years ahead. As CEO, I intend to remain intensely focused on delivering value for our shareholders and building upon our long track record of success. I believe there is no company better positioned to lead our country's energy transformation than NextEra Energy.\n",
"\n",
"And I am humbled by the opportunity to lead this team through such an exciting period for our company. I am fortunate to have a broad leadership team with the experience and capability that I too believe is the best in the industry. I am very excited to have Eric, Rebecca and Kirk take on these expanded and new roles in the company. They, along with our broader leadership team and all of our approximately 15,000 employees worked tirelessly every day to serve our customers in Florida and across North America.\n",
"\n",
"Finally, I wanted to take a moment to thank Jim for his exceptional leadership and friendship. Jim has been an unbelievable steward of this company over his nearly 10 years as CEO, growing the leading, most profitable electric utility and renewable energy company in North America. Our total shareholder return during Jim's tenure has been more than 500% and it is great evidence of Jim's exceptional vision, leadership and commitment to excellence. I know I speak for all of our employees that we are deeply grateful for everything Jim has done for our company.\n",
"\n",
"Let me now turn it over to Rebecca for a more detailed review of our results.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, John and good morning, everyone. Let's now turn to the detailed results, beginning with FPL. For the fourth quarter of 2021, FPL reported net income of $560 million or $0.28 per share, up $0.03 per share year over year. For the full year 2021, FPL reported net income of $2.94 billion or $1.49 per share, an increase of $0.14 per share versus 2020.\n",
"\n",
"Regulatory capital employed increased by approximately 11% for 2021 and was the principal driver of FPL's net income growth of nearly 11% for the full year. During the fourth quarter, net income was impacted by a number of factors, including an approximately $32 million pre-tax contribution to our charitable foundation that will allow it to continue to support the communities that we serve. FPL's capital expenditures were approximately $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter, bringing its full year capital investments to a total of roughly $6.8 billion. FPL's reported ROE for regulatory purposes is expected to be 11.6% for the 12 months ended December 31, 2021.\n",
"\n",
"During the fourth quarter, we utilized approximately $137 million of reserve amortization, leaving FPL with a year-end 2021 balance of $460 million. As a reminder, our new four-year settlement agreement became effective this month and includes the flexibility over the four-year term to amortize up to $1.45 billion of depreciation reserve surplus, which is inclusive of $346 million in reserve amount that we previously anticipated to be remaining at year-end 2021 under FPL's now expired 2016 rate agreement. Consistent with the terms of the 2021 settlement agreement, half of the $114 million in excess reserve balance at year-end 2021 will be used to reduce our outstanding capital recovery asset balance and the other half will increase FPL's storm reserve to offset future restoration costs. As a reminder, the new agreement limits reserve amortization to $200 million in 2022, which we will treat as a limitation in any given quarter during the year.\n",
"\n",
"Given the historical shape of our customer usage, we typically use more reserve amortization in the first half of the year and reverse reserve amortization in the hotter summer months. We currently expect FPL to initially earn below our target regulatory ROE in the early part of 2022. Although for the full year, we are targeting the upper end of the allowed range of 9.7% to 11.7%. As a result, we also expect FPL's earnings growth to be lower in the first half of the year and higher in the second half.\n",
"\n",
"As always, our expectations assume our usual caveats, including normal weather and operating conditions. Our overall capital program at Florida Power and Light is progressing well. We continue to advance one of the nation's largest solar expansions and met our solar deployment objectives at both FPL and Gulf Power in 2021, including commissioning more than 800 megawatts of new solar across the combined system. Beyond solar, construction on the highly efficient roughly 1,200 megawatt Dania Beach Clean Energy Center remains on schedule and on budget, as it continues to advance toward its projected commercial operations date later this year.\n",
"\n",
"The North Florida Resiliency Connection remains on track to be in service by mid-2022. Let me now turn to Gulf Power, which, as a reminder, was legally merged into FPL on January 1, 2021, but continue to be reported as a separate regulated segment during 2021. Gulf Power reported fourth quarter 2021 GAAP earnings of $60 million or $0.03 per share. For the full year, Gulf Power reported net income of $271 million or $0.14 per share an increase of $0.02 per share year over year.\n",
"\n",
"Base O&M reductions and investments in the business were the primary drivers of Gulf Power's approximately 14% year-over-year growth in net income. Gulf Power's capital expenditures for the full year were roughly $800 million and its reported ROE for regulatory purposes is expected to be approximately 11.25% for the 12 months ending December 2021. Given that this is the last time we will be talking about Gulf Power's financial results, let me take a moment to summarize the team's execution over the past three years. Gulf Power has delivered significant improvements in all key financial and operational metrics, while meaningfully improving its customer value proposition.\n",
"\n",
"The execution of the NextEra Energy playbook at Gulf Power, which is focusing on reducing costs and making smart capital investments for the benefit of customers, has been a remarkable success. Gulf Power has realized a nearly 40% reduction in O&M costs since the acquisition. Since 2018, Gulf Power improved service reliability by nearly 60% and it was awarded national recognition for its outstanding reliability performance in the Southeast suburban and rural service area for the second year in a row in 2021. Over the same period, Gulf Power realized an approximately 60% improvement in safety among our employees who have worked tirelessly to help us execute on our plans.\n",
"\n",
"Regulatory capital employed has grown by approximately 16% compound annual growth rate since 2018. We have invested approximately $2.5 billion in long-term improvements to Gulf Power's existing system and generation fleet. As a result of our clean power modernization investments at Gulf Power, we have already delivered an approximately 25% reduction in CO2 emissions over the last three years and we look forward to further expanding the opportunity for our customers to access clean, low-cost solar and storage in the years to come. This high level of performance across the board could not have been possible without the hard work and commitment of all of the Gulf Power employees.\n",
"\n",
"And I would like to thank all of our Florida Power and Light employees, old and new, for their relentless focus on reducing costs while improving reliability and safety over the past three years. Execution of the plans that we laid out at Gulf Power has generated great outcomes for our shareholders as well. Gulf Power's net income has grown by a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19% since 2018, an outcome that was even better than our expectations when we announced the acquisition. Our performance with Gulf Power is a clear validation of our strategy and our conviction that you can be clean, reliable, affordable and profitable at the same time.\n",
"\n",
"The Florida economy remains strong. Over the last 10 years, Florida's GDP has grown at a roughly 5% compound annual growth rate. The GDP of Florida is roughly $1.2 trillion, which is up approximately 8% from pre-pandemic levels and would make Florida the 15th largest economy in the world. At the same time, Florida's population continues to grow at one of the fastest rates in the nation.\n",
"\n",
"According to recent Census Bureau data, more people moved to Florida from other parts of the country than to any other state in 2021. We believe this is a reflection of Florida's unique proposition in terms of great weather, low taxes and a pro-business economy, all of which should support ongoing customer growth at Florida Power and Light. Over the past year, Florida has created more than 485,000 new private sector jobs and Florida's labor force participation rate has improved significantly. Three months average Florida building permits, a leading indicator of residential new service accounts are up 15% year over year and have outpaced the nation's quarterly growth in new building permits by roughly 13%.\n",
"\n",
"Other measures of confidence in the Florida economy have meaningfully improved versus the prior year, including a 34% improvement in Florida's retail sales index and a 2.6% decline in mortgage delinquencies while mortgage delinquencies across the U.S. have remained roughly flat. During the quarter, FPL's average customer growth was strong, increasing by nearly 82,000 customers from the comparable prior-year quarter. FPL's fourth quarter retail sales were down 1.5% versus the prior-year period, driven by an unfavorable weather comparison.\n",
"\n",
"For 2021, FPL's retail sales increased 1.7% from the prior year on a weather-normalized basis, driven primarily by ongoing strong customer growth and a 1.5% year-over-year increase in underlying usage per customer. Additional details are shown on the accompanying slide. Energy resources reported fourth quarter 2021 GAAP net income of $851 million or $0.43 per share. Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter were $414 million or $0.21 per share.\n",
"\n",
"energy resources contribution to adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter is up $0.04 versus the prior-year comparable period. For the full year, energy resources reported GAAP earnings of $599 million or $0.30 per share and adjusted earnings of approximately $2.21 billion or $1.12 per share. Energy resources full year adjusted earnings per share contribution increased $0.13 or approximately 13% versus 2020. For the full year, growth was driven by continued new additions to our renewables and energy storage portfolio as contributions from new investments increased by $0.12 per share.\n",
"\n",
"Contributions from existing generation and storage assets decreased $0.04 versus the prior year due primarily to underperformance in our existing wind fleet as a result of extreme market conditions in Texas in February of last year. NextEra energy transmission and gas infrastructure contributed favorably, increasing results by $0.01 and $0.02, respectively, year over year, while the contribution from our customer supply and trading businesses decreased $0.02 versus 2020. All other impacts increased results by $0.04 year over year. As Jim mentioned, energy resources had an outstanding year, delivering our best year ever for origination, adding approximately 7,200 net megawatts of new renewables and battery storage projects to our backlog.\n",
"\n",
"In 2021, we commissioned approximately 3,800 megawatts of wind, solar and storage projects, including a 110-megawatt build-own-transfer project that was not included in our backlog. In addition, since the last call, we have added approximately 1,500 megawatts of renewable projects to our backlog, including approximately 70 megawatts of new wind and wind repowerings, 300 megawatts of solar and 500 megawatts of battery storage. Our origination performance in 2021 reflects continued high demand among all customer classes for clean energy solutions that not only help achieve their renewable energy goals but perhaps more importantly, allow our customers to save energy -- save money on energy costs, while switching to lower cost forms of generation like wind, solar and solar plus storage. Our renewables backlog now stands at more than 16,600 megawatts, which is roughly the size of our entire renewables generation portfolio at the end of 2017 and nearly 25% larger than our backlog at year-end 2020 and this provides terrific visibility into the strong growth that lies ahead for energy resources over the next few years.\n",
"\n",
"The accompanying slide provides additional details on where our development program in energy resources now stands. We remain optimistic about the expanded investment opportunities that the broad decarbonization of the U.S. economy presents for energy resources. We believe that there are many new market opportunities where our industry-leading development platform will provide a competitive advantage to further grow our core long-term contracted renewables and storage business.\n",
"\n",
"As we have previously discussed, green hydrogen presents a particularly compelling new market for energy resources. During the fourth quarter, a clean energy technology company in which we are a minority equity investor and that has developed a proprietary process to decarbonize the industrial production of hydrogen at economic prices. One, a conditional approval for an approximately $1 billion DOE, Department of Energy loan to expand its clean hydrogen and carbon black production facilities in Nebraska. Our agreement with this company provides energy resources the opportunity to be its preferred renewable energy supplier for the facility and we are encouraged by the acceleration of the facility build-out that is expected to occur as a result of this new loan.\n",
"\n",
"Similarly, early in the year, we completed the strategic investment in a liquid fuels company with a proprietary process to produce 0 emissions synthetic fuels by combining green hydrogen with concentrated carbon dioxide streams captured from industrial processes. Our strategic partnership with this company includes the opportunity for energy resources to provide up to 3,000 megawatts under a preferential energy supply agreement. Finally, as part of our efforts to help our commercial and industrial customers achieve their substantial goals for both energy savings and decarbonization, we recently announced an agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase that allows for use of our proprietary state-of-the-art smart energy software to optimize its energy use and reduce its carbon footprint.\n",
"\n",
"Energy resources advanced software platform uses artificial intelligence and blockchain technology and leverages data from the industry-leading renewables and storage fleet owned and operated by energy resources. Two, among other things, match energy demand with clean energy resources available on the market in real time. We recently signed a similar agreement that allows a large university to use our advanced software platform to manage and optimize more than 100-megawatt solar plus storage asset in California. Through these initiatives, energy resources is leveraging its best-in-class renewable energy expertise to provide significant value to its customers in a market with meaningful growth potential.\n",
"\n",
"We are at the vanguard of building a sustainable energy era that is both clean and affordable and we are driving hard to continue to be at the forefront of the disruption that is occurring within the energy sector and broader parts of the U.S. economy. Consistent with our long-term track record, we will remain disciplined as we take steps to be at the forefront of these developing markets while taking a leadership role in clean energy transition expected to drive tremendous growth for energy resources over the next decade and beyond. Turning now to the consolidated results for NextEra Energy.\n",
"\n",
"For the fourth quarter of 2021, GAAP net income attributable to NextEra Energy was $1.2 billion or $0.61 per share. NextEra Energy's 2021 fourth quarter adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS were $814 million or $0.41 per share, respectively. For the full year 2021, GAAP net income attributable to NextEra Energy was $3.57 billion or $1.81 per share. Adjusted earnings were $5.02 billion or $2.55 per share.\n",
"\n",
"For the corporate and other segment, adjusted earnings for the full year decreased $0.05 per share compared to the prior year, primarily as a result of higher interest and refinancing costs associated with certain liability management initiatives completed during the fourth quarter to take advantage of the low interest rate environment. Our fourth quarter refinancing activities reduced nominal adjusted net income by roughly $140 million. We expect these initiatives to translate into favorable net income contribution in future years and an overall improvement in net present value for our shareholders. Specifically, during the fourth quarter, NextEra Energy successfully refinanced approximately $5.2 billion in existing debt and hybrid securities and proactively issued roughly $4.9 billion in replacement funding.\n",
"\n",
"This combination of redemptions and new issuance extended its maturity profile by over six years and is expected to generate an approximately $30 million after-tax reduction in annual interest expense in the near term. Capital recycling remains an important part of our financing plan as we continue to execute on the tremendous growth opportunities in front of us. During the fourth quarter, energy resources closed on its previously announced agreements to sell a portfolio of newly constructed and under construction renewable assets to NextEra Energy Partners and to a third-party infrastructure investor. Through the sale of this 2.5 gigawatt renewables portfolio, energy resources was able to recycle nearly $3.5 billion of capital, including the tax equity proceeds, an accretive matter -- manner and take advantage of the strong market for wind, solar and storage assets.\n",
"\n",
"We believe that our renewables development platform at energy resources is second to none and our ability to continue to harness market demand for renewables and recognize the value of that platform is a key competitive advantage for NextEra Energy as it continues to grow its portfolio of long-term contracted operating renewables and storage assets at energy resources. Turning now to our financial expectations for NextEra Energy. As Jim discussed, today, we are increasing the ranges of our adjusted EPS expectations for 2022 and 2023 and introducing our expectations for 2024 and 2025. For 2022, NextEra Energy now expects adjusted earnings per share to be in a range of $2.75 to $2.85.\n",
"\n",
"For 2023 through 2025, NextEra Energy expects to grow roughly 6% to 8% off of the expected 2022 adjusted earnings per share range. And we will be disappointed if we are not able to deliver financial results at or near the top end of these ranges for each year. Details of our new financial expectations are included on the accompanying slide. From 2021 to 2025, we expect that our average annual growth in operating cash flow will be at or above our adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate range.\n",
"\n",
"We also continue to expect to grow our dividends per share at roughly 10% per year through at least 2022 off of a 2020 base. As always, our expectations assume our usual caveats. Let me now turn to the detailed financial results for NextEra Energy Partners. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $322 million and cash available for distribution was $91 million.\n",
"\n",
"Adjusted EBITDA growth versus the prior-year comparable quarter was primarily due to the growth in the underlying portfolio. For the full year 2021, adjusted EBITDA was $1.36 billion, up 8% year over year and was primarily driven by the full contribution from new projects acquired late in 2020. Our existing projects portfolio, favorable performance from NextEra Energy Partners natural gas pipeline investments and contributions from the wind repowerings that we added at the end of 2020 were partially offset by weaker wind resource and lower generation at our Genesis Solar project as a result of outages for major maintenance in the first and fourth quarters of 2021. For the full year, wind resource was 98% of the long-term average versus 100% in 2020.\n",
"\n",
"Cash available for distribution was $584 million for the full year. The benefit to cash available for distribution from lower corporate level interest expense was partially offset by a comparably higher project level financing costs on our Genesis solar project and other existing assets that were recapitalized to fund the acquisition of approximately 500 net megawatts from energy resources at the end of 2020. Over the past three years, NextEra Energy Partners cash available for distribution has grown at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20%. As a reminder, these results include the impact of IDR fees, which we treat as an operating expense.\n",
"\n",
"Additional details are shown on the accompanying slide. Yesterday, the NextEra Energy Partners board declared a quarterly distribution of $0.775 per common unit or $2.83 per unit on an annualized basis, up 15% from the comparable quarterly distribution a year earlier and at the top end of the range we discussed going into 2021. During the quarter, NextEra Energy Partners closed on the initial funding of its approximately $820 million convertible equity portfolio financing with Apollo Global Management and use those proceeds along with existing NextEra Energy Partners debt capacity to fund its acquisition of approximately 1,300 net megawatts of renewables and storage from energy resources. Under the terms of the agreement, NextEra Energy Partners is expected to benefit from a low implied initial cash coupon over the first 10 years, despite only providing approximately 4% of the upfront capital needed to purchase the assets.\n",
"\n",
"While we expect to allow NextEra Energy partners to achieve a full return of its capital invested into this acquisition in less than two years. Additionally, the financing will provide NextEra Energy partners the flexibility to periodically buy out the investors' equity interest between the five and 10-year anniversaries of the agreement at a fixed pre-tax return of approximately 5.6% inclusive of all prior distributions, making this NextEra Energy Partners lowest cost convertible equity portfolio financing to date. NextEra Energy Partners will have the right to pay up to 100% of the buyout price in NEP common units issued at no discount to the then current market price. NextEra Energy Partners also issued approximately 7.25 million new NEP common units during the fourth quarter to acquire the remaining equity interest in a portfolio of 1,388 megawatts of wind and solar assets associated with the convertible equity portfolio financing that NEP entered into in 2018.\n",
"\n",
"NextEra Energy Partners funded the remaining roughly $265 million of the approximately $885 million of total consideration for the acquisition of equity in the portfolio, with project level debt issued on a subset of the underlying assets. The nearly $650 million project financing supported by these assets, which was also the lowest cost project level debt financing in the partnership's history is reflective of the strong performance of the underlying assets in the portfolio and also supportive financing of other growth opportunities executed in 2021. From an updated base of our fourth quarter 2021 distribution per common unit at an annualized rate of $2.83, we continue to see 12% to 15% growth per year in LP distributions as being a reasonable range of expectations through at least 2024. We expect the annualized rate of the fourth quarter 2022 distribution that is payable in February of 2023 to be in a range of $3.17 to $3.25 per common unit.\n",
"\n",
"We continue to expect to achieve our 2022 distribution growth of 12% to 15%, while maintaining a trailing 12-month payout ratio in the low 80% range. Given the successful execution of the recent acquisition from energy resources as well as the approximately 100-megawatt operating wind facility from a third party, year-end December 31, 2021 run rate adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution exceeded our previous expectations ranges. As a result, today, we are introducing new year-end 2021 run rate expectation ranges for adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution of $1.635 billion to $1.795 billion and $640 million to $720 million, respectively. With a combination of strong cash flow generation from existing NextEra Energy Partners portfolio, including the approximately 2,400 net megawatts of new renewables and storage added during 2021 and its relatively low payout ratio, NextEra Energy Partners has significant flexibility in terms of acquisitions in the coming year.\n",
"\n",
"Although acquisitions could occur at any time during 2022, for modeling purposes, it may be practical to assume that any new unannounced asset additions occur late in 2022 and therefore, have limited contributions to the calendar year 2022 expectations implied by the year-end 2021 run rate for adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution for the portfolio that we just discussed. NextEra Energy Partners run rate expectations for adjusted EBITDA and CAFD at December 31, 2022, remain unchanged. Year-end 2022 run rate adjusted EBITDA expectations are $1.775 billion to $1.975 billion and CAFD in the range of $675 million to $765 million, respectively, reflecting calendar year 2023 expectations for the forecasted portfolio at year-end 2022. As a reminder, all of our expectations are subject to our normal caveats and include the impact of anticipated IDR fees as we anticipate -- as we treat those as an operating expense.\n",
"\n",
"In summary, we continue to believe that both NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners have excellent prospects for growth, both in the near and longer term. Florida Power and Light, energy resources and NextEra Energy Partners each have outstanding set of opportunities across the board. The progress we made in 2021 reinforces our longer-term growth prospects. And while we have a lot to execute on in 2022, we believe that we have the building blocks in place for another excellent year.\n",
"\n",
"That concludes our prepared remarks. And with that, we will open up the line for questions.\n",
"\n",
"Questions & Answers:\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"[Operator instructions] The first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hey, good morning, team. And thank you for the time and congratulations to everyone here. So many folks so well deserved. Indeed, Jim, we'll miss you, but we'll see you soon enough here, I'm sure.\n",
"\n",
"Jim Robo -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Absolutely. If I can pivot here just to some of the core questions. First off, just impressive guidance. Can you talk about how you're thinking about BBB? I mean, maybe the way to ask this is a little bit in reverse.\n",
"\n",
"How do you think about BBB is that it actually happened here? What assumptions are you making out in '25 on extensions or which frankly appear more likely than not eventually anyway? And perhaps more directly, how are you thinking about investments beyond wind and solar in those 2025 figures, for instance, storage or hydrogen, for instance?\n",
"\n",
"Jim Robo -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"So Julien, let me take that. So we don't need BBB to deliver on the expectations that we've just laid out, right? I think about BBB as an accelerator, not as that is something that we would need in order to deliver on what we just laid out in terms of the earnings or the backlog growth that we've projected through '24. In terms of how am I feeling about BBB, I would say two things. I am optimistic about something happening some point this year.\n",
"\n",
"And I would say that might -- when I say optimistic, I would say more likely than not. I think I was -- I think I felt more optimistic in the fourth quarter than I do now. I think that's just reality. But I do think it's more likely than not that the clean energy piece of BBB gets acted on this year.\n",
"\n",
"I do think it's going to take a while. And everything we have heard says there is particularly in the Senate, I think a desire for some process and process takes time, given the Senate rules. And my sense is that it's not going to be first quarter event, it's going to be post that either a second quarter event or honestly, probably more likely sometime in the fourth quarter after the election.\n",
"\n",
"Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, I got you there. Feel free to open any more on the '25 guidance. I know that it's probably pre-empting a little bit the June analyst day, regardless. And then maybe if I could pivot in brief, any thoughts or comments you'd like to share around some of the headlines pertaining to FPL here? I know there's been a lot of back and forth and perhaps there's a lot of context to provide there.\n",
"\n",
"Jim Robo -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Sure, Julien. I think on some of the Florida political headlines, I think what I'd like to say on that is pretty simple. When we got -- when we received the report and those allegations that have been in the press. We conducted a very extensive and thorough investigation that included looking at company financial records.\n",
"\n",
"It includes looking at everyone who was named in its company emails also looking at their -- they've all provided access to their personal emails and text to us as part of that investigation. And the bottom line is we found no evidence of any issues at all, any illegality or any wrongdoing on the part of FPL or any of its employees. And so that's kind of the bottom line. And I feel very good about the investigation that we did and I feel very good that there is no basis to any of these allegations.\n",
"\n",
"So I think that's probably all that we're going to say on that today. And I think Rebecca is going to talk about the 2025, your question on 2025.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Julien, as you might appreciate and I'm sure everyone does on the call. When we think about our ranges of expectations, particularly when we're talking about several years out, like you asked about specifically 2025, there are quite a number of variables that we consider in order to set those ranges. And in particular, for the comment that we provided that we'd be disappointed not to be at the high end of each of those ranges, including 2025. I would say the key parts that we think about, first on Florida Power and Light Company, we've got the outcome from the four-year settlement agreement that is now the -- how we expect to operate for the next couple of years and that creates the opportunity to continue investing in the business.\n",
"\n",
"And executing on the strategy that's been so successful for customers over quite a number of years looking back, so we can continue that for the next couple of years. And we believe that, that will enable us to grow rate base in the range of 8% to 9% on a compound annual growth rate basis, assuming all of the investments that were anticipated in the settlement agreement, ultimately, we're able to successfully bring into service. On the energy resources side, the biggest drivers are the ones that we've talked about and are laid out in the slide materials on Page 16. Looking at our development ranges for all of wind, solar, energy storage and wind repowering over this four-year period from '21 through 2024, which, obviously, would have the largest impact on what our earnings look like in 2025.\n",
"\n",
"As Jim highlighted, if there's change in regulatory or incentive structures, we would obviously factor that in the future. But that's not anticipated in these estimates and we feel really good about how we're positioned to execute between now and then. We do have to execute a lot. We have to execute the energy resources, which I'm excited to take on that challenge.\n",
"\n",
"We have a lot to do to continue delivering like we have at Florida Power and Light, but I think we're in a great position to do so.\n",
"\n",
"Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Excellent, team. Best of luck. Speak soon.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Julien.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"The next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Steve Fleishman -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, thanks. Good moring. Congrats, Jim and John and everyone else. So maybe Jim, could you just give us a little more color on what you are going to focus your time on as executive chair? And how long you intend to likely be in that role?\n",
"\n",
"Jim Robo -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Sure, Steve. So I think my focus is going to be to help John with the transition and in particular, help John with the transition as it relates to the board. You should think about my transition time in terms of months, not years. And that's probably all we're ready to say about it today.\n",
"\n",
"But my real focus is going to be on making John as successful as I know he will be.\n",
"\n",
"Steve Fleishman -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"OK, that's helpful. Second question, just on the renewable development. Maybe you could just talk a little bit to the trends that you're seeing there. It did seem like fourth quarter slowed versus the prior quarters in terms of backlog growth? And is there maybe some kind of waiting to see what happens with folks on BBB in the market right now or anything else that you might want to highlight.\n",
"\n",
"John Ketchum -- President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Yes. Steve, I'll take this. This is John. First of all, we're coming off a record year with 7.3 gigawatts, had a strong fourth quarter, posting about 1,500 megawatts.\n",
"\n",
"What we are seeing in the market is continued strong demand and that's coming from a number of different sources. It's not only coming from investor-owned utilities and munis and co-ops, but also C&I. As there's been a lot of rotation of capital into ESG funds. It's certainly getting investor attention and putting an impetus on companies to become sustainable.\n",
"\n",
"And so one of the things that we've spent a lot of time on over the last couple of years is our customer base and how do we market to a different customer base, not that the investor-owned utility and muni and co-op won't always be our core. It will be. But we're doing some things differently, too, around C&I., for example. Some of you might have seen the Optos release where J.P.\n",
"\n",
"Morgan is partnering with us on a new software product, where we go in and we basically are able to calculate exactly what their energy footprint looks like today. How we can make it better, how we can take money out of the bill, how we can make it greener. That's just one example of some of the things that we're doing differently in terms of the ways that we approach the customer. And when I look at the pipeline that we have in place, the land positions, the interconnects, it's second to none.\n",
"\n",
"It's an area of certainly focus that we are continuing to build out. We'll talk a lot more about that at the analyst day. But we have the best sites, the best team, the best talent the best analytics and the normal competitive advantages of being able to manage the supply chain operate cheaper, finance cheaper, all those things come together, give us a lot of optimism about the future.\n",
"\n",
"Steve Fleishman -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"OK, great. And then one last question, just on the guidance improvement. If I had to kind of simplify kind of what's driving the higher guidance, '22 and beyond in terms of factors? Any just kind of key reasons you would say for the higher guidance?\n",
"\n",
"John Ketchum -- President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, I will take that as well, Steve. I think Rebecca covered certainly the FPL piece. And then you think about energy resources. We've doubled the backlog in the last few years, continue to see a lot of promise there with or without build back better.\n",
"\n",
"Jim said, more likely than not that we're able to get something passed there by the end of the year. But we plan our business as if it doesn't happen. And our financial forecast is based on it not happening. And that's why we were very resolute in our ability to take our expectations up not only for 2022, but to extend the guidance out through 2025.\n",
"\n",
"And that's just based on what we see in our renewable backlog. And when you think about the expectations that we laid out for investors for '21 and '22, I think we've done a terrific job of meeting those and then laying out '23 and '24. We've made tremendous headway against those expectations.\n",
"\n",
"Steve Fleishman -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Great. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Jessica Aldridge -- Director of Investor Relations\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, Steve.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"The next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Shar Pourreza -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hey, good morning, guys.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Good morning.\n",
"\n",
"Shar Pourreza -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Congrats, Jim, John, Rebecca and team on the moves, well deserved. Just most of my questions actually just got answered. But just a quick question on near ventures. Obviously, you guys are starting to expand the playbook into CCS.\n",
"\n",
"Water, wastewater treatment. And obviously, in the prepared remarks, you just highlighted the hydrogen value chain opportunities there. Is the future growth of any of these type of investments more specifically predicated on any outcomes of federal policy like a hydrogen PTC and seeing sort of the lack of progress on that front. Do you anticipate any pullback from these sort of opportunities? Not the base business, not the base newer opportunities but more specifically on the venture side.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, Shar and appreciate the question. We do think there's a lot of opportunities as I talked about in the prepared remarks, not only of purely executing our renewables for the electricity sector, but helping use clean energy to decarbonize these other industries. And we're thinking about some of these investment opportunities as a way to explore how those business models and investment opportunities are ultimately going to shape up over time. But to answer your direct question around the incentives, the investments we've made to date do not assume that there's a change of incentives or even the specific question around hydrogen that there's a hydrogen PTC.\n",
"\n",
"But as John and his team, the energy resources team has evaluated a number of hydrogen pilot opportunities or future business opportunities. They certainly would be furthered and helped. Some of them would be by hydrogen PTC. And that's one of the things that I know we, as a whole team remain optimistic about that if something happens, whether it's the full BBB or just a climate title that happens through reconciliation, we're optimistic that a hydrogen incentive would be included in that package.\n",
"\n",
"I think there's a lot of opportunities to further the decarbonization of the U.S. economy through the use of hydrogen. So short answer, investments don't assume it, but I think there's even more opportunity if there are some incentives like the hydrogen PTC in the future.\n",
"\n",
"Shar Pourreza -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"And then let me ask you just obviously the opportunity is sort of that, especially as you're thinking about on the hydrogen side. As sort of the growth starts to transpire, how are you sort of thinking about credit metrics? Any potential pressures there as that business grows? And how we should be thinking about equity funding on those?\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, one of the strategic imperatives, the way that we think about managing the business over the long term and I highlighted a couple of times in remarks and we highlighted on a consistent basis because it's a high priority for us is maintaining that strong balance sheet. As you've seen, quality of credit degrade elsewhere in the industry, we've remained as committed as ever to maintaining that strong balance sheet. We think it's a huge differentiator for us and being able to execute our business to deploy the capital that we deploy and to provide the stability that our customers assume and expect from us, we think a strong balance sheet is imperative. So as we think about all of these investment opportunities, the growth in our business, that will remain a priority and we will assume that as part of the way that we're thinking about the business as a private facia part of the strategy.\n",
"\n",
"Shar Pourreza -- Guggenheim Partners -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Terrific. Thanks, again. I'll pass it to someone else. Again, big congrats John and no surprises here.\n",
"\n",
"Thanks.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, Shar.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. The next question comes from Stephen Boyd with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Unknown speaker\n",
"\n",
"Hey, good morning. I just want to echo congratulations to Jim and to John and Rebecca and Kirk and Eric. The performance you all have achieved is really quite remarkable. So congrats are absolutely in order.\n",
"\n",
"So just so happy for you all. I wanted to spend a little time on the technology side. I guess it strikes me that within NextEra for years, you've all been developing a variety of interesting technologies, sometimes not always as visible to us. But it just strikes me that some of those developments are becoming both more visible and potentially more commercial, more of interest in terms of ways you can monetize that to a fairly broad customer base.\n",
"\n",
"And then just curious, I know this is a high-level question, but just interested in your take on how important technology such as some of the software development that you all mentioned could be to driving earnings power to driving growth of NextEra in the long term.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Yes, Stephen, thank you for the question. And I think you're absolutely right. It's probably something that we have not talked about very much and probably will talk about more going forward. The reason why we had not talked about it a lot in the past is we really have thought about it as a strategic advantage to us, which we continue to believe a strategic advantage to us.\n",
"\n",
"And we've largely used as a way to further both the profitability and the win rates on developing renewables. As we thought about how does the business grow and change and we capitalize all of these opportunities that you and we and the industry see, one of the shifts is thinking about our commercial and industrial customers, whether they're in traditional C&I customers that have been interested in the products that we sell or new ones or ones that are more industrial in nature or agricultural in nature. They often need some additional services to help them understand how to manage their generation and load needs, think about their carbon intensity, deliver on their own environmental, social and governance goals and some of the things that we've developed internally through all of our expertise are very appropriate and enormously valuable to these customers. So we've seen the opportunity to continue these investments, think about how we package and sell them to customers and you'll see a lot more of that from us going forward.\n",
"\n",
"And we think there's a huge opportunity to sell not only those services, but also use them as a way to deepen our relationships with our customers and ultimately deploy renewables over time.\n",
"\n",
"Unknown speaker\n",
"\n",
"That's really helpful, Rebecca. And would that be essentially upside to the plan, in other words, sort of beyond the typical kind of numbers we see around renewables deployment, etc.? Is this an area of upside or have you factored some of this into thinking about your growth?\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"I think for base assumptions, we're including some assumptions around what we think we can do with these types of businesses. But as always, there's pluses and minuses. Fortunately, for us, they've largely been pluses in recent history and we've been able to deliver adjusted EPS growth in excess of even what we, they have anticipated or laid out for investors prior to delivering. So hopefully, we'll be in a position to do that again over time.\n",
"\n",
"But for now, I think you should safely assume that our expectations are the ones we just laid out in the last couple of minutes. And we'll use all of these levers to deliver against those and again, hopefully achieve as we expect the high end of each of these ranges, which we would feel very proud of and see as enormously value accretive to shareholders.\n",
"\n",
"Unknown speaker\n",
"\n",
"Agree. Maybe just one last one for me. We're often asked about impediments to growth in clean energy and pretty clearly, NextEra is not experiencing that. Just curious if you could talk a little bit more about just sort of some of those impediments sort of perception versus reality, things like supply chain, labor availability, permitting, anything else? Just sort of -- I think there, frankly, is sometimes a misconception about those limits to growth.\n",
"\n",
"And it looks like clean energy growth remains very strong, especially for NextEra. But just curious if you could just comment on those perceptions of limits on growth.\n",
"\n",
"John Ketchum -- President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, let me take that one. I think you identified some of the obvious ones that we have that we are addressing, certainly, supply chain and those types of issues and I think we've answered those. I think when I look at the market today, Stephen, the issue for companies to be successful or not successful. The biggest differentiator is going to be many of the questions that you just asked.\n",
"\n",
"And are you positioning your company for what is going to be a more complex energy offering that is going to be demanded by the customer? Rebecca gave the example of a C&I customer. It's not as simple as being able to approach a C&I customer and say, hey, I'm going to sell you 100 megawatts of wind or 100 megawatts of solar or what do you think about a 50-megawatt battery? These are people that are selling candy bars and bottles of water and things of that nature. They're not in our business. They need the expertise as to how they think about that addition within their existing energy needs.\n",
"\n",
"And so it takes a comprehensive skill set in order to come forward with a clean energy solution that makes sense for that business. And so when you think about a lot of the small developers that we have to compete against in solar and wind, they don't have that expertise. They don't have the ability to offer firm and shape products and things that it's going to take to really win the business. That's the first piece.\n",
"\n",
"The second piece is the question you asked around technology. We have been very aggressive in our investment around technology. We've talked about the NextEra Energy analytics team that we bought back in '05. We have really built that team out.\n",
"\n",
"It's a group of PhD, mathematicians, software developers, software engineers, that not only use those tools to help manage our existing fleet and help leverage and drive operating efficiencies around what we do every day in managing our existing footprint, but they're now able to take all that data, all that information, all that know-how to develop comprehensive software solutions for customers. And that is a huge leg up that we have over the rest of the industry and one of the things that we're looking at. And the third thing is renewable enablers. We are really looking at what it means to lead the energy transition.\n",
"\n",
"What are you going to have to be good at? And what capabilities are you going to have to have as an organization to really do that. And we have been spending the last three or four years, very focused on it. We don't talk a lot about some of the things that we're up to. You'll get more details at the analyst day.\n",
"\n",
"But needless to say and be self-assured, we're ready.\n",
"\n",
"Unknown speaker\n",
"\n",
"That's great overview. Thank you so much.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Stephen.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"The next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Michael Lapides -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, guys. Thank you and congrats to everyone on all the leadership changes. I actually have two questions on the regulated business in Florida. First of all, can you just remind us and I know you'll give us more detail six months from now.\n",
"\n",
"But just can you remind us what the capital spend levels for the next couple of years are, combined FP&L and gold or if you want to break it out and separate those two?\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, it's probably about $7 billion to $8 billion per year. It's included, Michael, in the regulatory capital employed growth of roughly 8% to 9% per year.\n",
"\n",
"Michael Lapides -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Got it. $7 billion, $8 billion per year. And kind of flat or do you see that escalating over time? And how should we think about what percent of that capital is either recovered as part of the rate case revenue requirement increase or via the tracker? And what part may -- would build up as rate base and you get it back in a future case?\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"There's a mix of course Michael as you might expect. And we certainly have our best laid plans that will include as part of the updated capex tables in the 10-K when we publish it in a couple of weeks. One comment on that, I would make -- and obviously, there's a difference between, as you recall, from the capex table for FPL versus energy resources. But in both cases, as you get closer to that operating year, the teams tend to find good investment opportunities that are value accretive from a customer standpoint and may add and subtract to those over time.\n",
"\n",
"But those will be our best estimates based on what we've seen so far and also under the parameters of the settlement agreement inclusive of the SolarTogether investments that were approved as part of the settlement agreement. And also anticipate the current views around the investments on both storm hardening and undergrounding that, as you know, are included in a clause mechanism and recovered separately and approved separately over time. Those change over time depending on what we see and where we see the value coming for our customers, but we feel very good about the overall views. And of course, we'll give more details as we go into the investor conference in June.\n",
"\n",
"Michael Lapides -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Got it. And Rebecca, I just want to come back to some of the comments you made in your prepared remarks about FP&L and earnings targets for next year and beyond. Is it getting harder operationally, just given the size and the amount of capital you're deploying at FP&L, to hit the highest end or the top end of the earnings band? You're laying -- historically, if you kind of go back and skim the transcript, always kind of talk about hitting that high end and it almost seems -- and I may be misinterpreting, but the language today was kind of toward the high end, but maybe not exactly added. And I was just curious if there's a change there in terms of being able to hit the 11.7% level.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Sure. Let me answer the -- I don't know if you're asking full on the NextEra Energy side where we typically have the language would be disappointed not to be at or near the high end. That language is exactly the same. And if anything changes solely a stumble on my part in terms of speaking, but the language is exactly the same.\n",
"\n",
"If you're asking specifically around Florida Power and Light Company, the approved range, as you know, for the settlement agreement is the range of 9.7% to 11.7%. And my comment was specifically around our expectations for 2022, which, of course, is the first year of the new settlement agreement. And that also includes the 1-year limitation that was included in the settlement agreement around the use of surplus amortization just in this year, which is a maximum amount of $200 million. When we think about everything, what our investment plans are, our opportunities for continuing to focus on cost improvements, other improvements for customers, the investments that we plan to make and the use of the surplus amortization, including the shape over time.\n",
"\n",
"We believe that at the end of the year, we'll be able to report a regulatory ROE at the high end of the range. Where exactly that is, of course, we'll refine it over the -- as the year progresses. And then of course, we'll be targeting the high end of the ROE range in future years as well.\n",
"\n",
"Michael Lapides -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Got it. Thank you, Rebecca. Appreciate you taking the time and congrats again.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Thank you so much, Michael.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"The next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Jeremy Tonet -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, good morning.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Good morning, Jeremy.\n",
"\n",
"Jeremy Tonet -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"You covered a lot of ground today. Just one question for me and it's kind of been touched on a few different times. But just diving in with the transition, in general. Just wondering if you could comment a little bit more about why now is the right time versus any point in the past or in the future to make the transition? And then should we expect anything new in messaging from NextEra with the transition here? Could we expect something kind of new along these lines at the analyst day?\n",
"\n",
"Jim Robo -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"So Jeremy, this is Jim, on the transition. I think you heard in the prepared remarks, this is something that the board and I have been working on really in earnest since -- well, honestly, in earnest, since my first succession planning discussion as CEO back in 2012. But I let the board know that my target for retiring as CEO was after -- I let them know this in 2016, honestly, that my target was after the 2020 rate case. And I actually extended kind of my time line a bit to get through this rate case.\n",
"\n",
"And so that's been -- it's been my plan for a very long time. Obviously, we didn't make any decisions about it until we announced it here. But it's been something that the board and I have been discussing for a very long time. And we've been very deliberate about the succession planning that we've done and I'm really pleased with the team that's going to be leading the company into the future.\n",
"\n",
"Rebecca Kujawa -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"And I think, Jeremy, you had a second question going into the investor conference. Can you remind me what that was?\n",
"\n",
"Jeremy Tonet -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yes. Just Jim, that's very helpful details there. And just as we look at the analyst day here, should we expect kind of with the transition, any kind of change that might materialize in messaging at that point at the analyst day or that's not really the expectation at this point?\n",
"\n",
"John Ketchum -- President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy\n",
"\n",
"Yes. For the analyst day, first of all, we have never been in a better position. We're coming off of what I would characterize as our best year as a company. And it's been really a testament to the entire lead team, not only obviously the job Jim's done, but the job Eric's done, the job Rebecca's done and the leadership team that we have in place at energy resources.\n",
"\n",
"We have an extremely deep bench with a ton of experience. I've been here almost two decades. Eric's been here almost two decades. Rebecca has been here 15 years.\n",
"\n",
"And we have just a wealth of experience in the team that will bring full bear on the opportunity set that we have that we have going forward. And the way I think about it is we will continue to double down on the core. That means execution. Unlike what we've seen in the past around FPL and the capital plan that they have for customers and for shareholders.\n",
"\n",
"The renewable opportunity that we have in this country. Don't forget Renewables are cheap. They're the cheapest form of generation in this country with or without incentive. So we have a tremendous opportunity there as well.\n",
"\n",
"And then the third piece I would characterize as the renewable enablers. What are the other things that we can do as a company that we've been working on behind the scenes that will help position us to be the leader of the energy transition in this country and we're going to deal with the best team in the industry. So that's really what you're going to hear about at the analyst day.\n",
"\"\"\"\n"
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"tesla_text=\"\"\"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's fourth quarter 2021 Q&A webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, senior director of investor relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn, and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the updated deck we published at the same link as this webcast.\n",
"\n",
"During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question-and-answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.\n",
"\n",
"10 stocks we like better than Tesla, Inc.\n",
"When our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.*\n",
"\n",
"They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Tesla, Inc. wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.\n",
"\n",
"See the 10 stocks\n",
"\n",
"*Stock Advisor returns as of January 10, 2022\n",
"\n",
"[Operator instructions] But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, Martin. So just to recap 2021, it was a breakthrough year for Tesla and for electric vehicles in general. And while we battled, and everyone did, with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year. This level of growth didn't happen by coincidence.\n",
"\n",
"It was a result of ingenuity and hard work across multiple teams throughout the company. Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry in the last widely reported quarter at over 14% GAAP operating margin. Lastly, thanks to $5.5 billion of [Inaudible] small finger by now -- $5.5 billion of GAAP net income in 2021, our accumulated profitability since the inception of the company became positive, which I think makes us a real company at this point. This is a critical milestone for the company.\n",
"\n",
"So after an exceptional year, we shift our focus to the future, Texas and Berlin. So we've begun production at both Texas and Berlin, we started that last quarter. But that's not the most important thing. We focus more on when to get to volume production and when can we deliver cars to customers.\n",
"\n",
"But I think it is worth noting that we -- and as the internet has observed, we've been making quite a few cars in Texas and Berlin, so -- in Austin and Berlin. So in Texas, we're building the Model Ys with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells, and we'll start delivering after final certification of the vehicle, which should be fairly soon. Capacity expansion will continue through maximizing output of each factory and building new factories and new locations in the future. Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but we will get through 2022 look at new locations, and probably be able to announce new locations toward the end of this year, I expect.\n",
"\n",
"So -- in 2022, supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all factories. So the chip shortage, while better than last year, is still an issue. And, yeah, so that's -- there are multiple supply chain challenges. And last year was difficult to predict, and hopefully, this year will be smooth sailing, but, you know, I'm not sure what you do for an encore to 2021, 2020.\n",
"\n",
"Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, you know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022. Full self-driving. So, over time, we think full self-driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. It's -- actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty -- it's nutty good from a financial standpoint.\n",
"\n",
"And I think we are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we'll achieve full self-driving this year, yeah, with data safety level significantly greater than the present. So it's -- you know, the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self-driving by a software update, I think, might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. We shall see.\n",
"\n",
"It would also have a profound impact on improving safety and on accelerating the world toward sustainable energy through vastly better asset utilization. Let's see, so on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call. So I'll talk kind of at a high level -- yeah, mostly at a high level.\n",
"\n",
"The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think people do not -- a lot of people do not understand. So last year, we spent a lot of engineering and management resources solving supply chain issues, rewriting code, changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need, with chip drama central.\n",
"\n",
"And there were not -- that was not the only supply chain issue, so -- just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result. But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, we would -- our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the constraints -- the chips constraints, particularly.\n",
"\n",
"So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained.\n",
"\n",
"We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars? So in terms of priority of products, I think the -- I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.\n",
"\n",
"If you think about the economy, it is -- the foundation of the economy is labor. Capital equipment is distilled labor. So what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? I'm not sure what an economy even means at that point. That's what Optimus is about, so very important.\n",
"\n",
"Drew, do you want me to talk about the 4680 program?\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Sure.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Or is this a good -- the right time?\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Sure. Yeah, yeah, sure. So throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers is actually -- it sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022, or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans based on the information we have.\n",
"\n",
"But we are making meaningful progress of the ramp curve in Kato. We're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.\n",
"\n",
"Our focus on the cell, the pack, and the vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we're ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp and next year. And the 4680 and pack tool installations here at Giga Austin are progressing well with some areas producing first parts. And the internet has also noticed that. \n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, I was touring the factory -- the cell factory here. I'm super pumped. It's like a really exciting accomplishment for us to bring everything into one Austin factory here in Texas.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Absolutely. And just to repeat Drew's point, we are still -- we still expect to be part or primarily chip-limited this year. So that's the thing -- that's actually the driver.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"And that chip limitation should alleviate next year. And then probably, we transition into a cell limitation battery, you know, total gigawatt-hours of cell limitation, which is when the 4680 will become very important.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Agreed.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"I think -- yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much. And now, Zach has some opening remarks as well.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Long opening remarks.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. Thanks, Martin. As Elon mentioned, 2021 was a financially transformative year for the company. If we look across the full year '21 and compare that to 2020, our automotive gross margin, excluding credits, rose by over 600 basis points, enabled by work on cost reduction, utilization of our Shanghai factory for exports, and accelerating demand.\n",
"\n",
"Opex as a percentage of revenue reduced despite the impact of one-time items and unique items, and operating income more than tripled, with operating margin reaching our guidance of mid-teens, and these margins are trending up. We also saw regulatory credits accounting for a relatively small portion of our 2021 profitability, which we expect to continue to reduce in materiality going forward. For Q4, specifically, automotive gross margin, excluding credits, increased to 29.2%, which is our highest yet. We do continue to see some impact of higher pricing on certain models and trims as was the case in prior quarters.\n",
"\n",
"But please keep in mind that due to backlogs, changes in pricing will generally impact our financials in future quarters. Supply chain challenges and port congestion resulted in a significant increase in our expedite costs in Q4. We also took reserves associated with warranty and recall costs. Operating expenses were meaningfully impacted by stock-based compensation from the final two tranches of the CEO stock grant becoming probable and payroll taxes associated with the exercise of the 2012 CEO options.\n",
"\n",
"The total impact of these payroll taxes, warranty and recall costs, and excess expedites was just over $700 million in the quarter. Our free cash flows have remained strong, reaching record levels in Q4 of $2.8 billion despite increased capex. In addition to using cash to grow the business as quickly as we can, we have been retiring legacy and high-interest debt. Note that we plan to continue to utilize the ABS market for product-specific financing.\n",
"\n",
"As we look forward, we expect 2022 to be another significant and exciting year for the company. We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth at or above 50%, as Elon mentioned, and our plans show that this is actually achievable with just our Fremont and Shanghai factories. For quite some time now, these factories have been running below capacity due to macro challenges with supply and logistics. As Elon mentioned as well, from what we're seeing, the pace of growth in 2022 will, again, be determined by supply chain and logistics, which is quite difficult for us to forecast.Despite these constraints, it's important to begin the ramp of Austin and Berlin to ensure that we are prepared once limitations ease, enabling us to increase total output more quickly in the future.\n",
"\n",
"This will result in higher fixed and semi-variable costs in the near term, in addition to the usual inefficiencies as we ramp a new factory. We are also seeing inflation and rising commodity prices, which we expect to continue to put pressure on our costs. How this specifically impacts gross margins in the near term is uncertain, given a mix of both tailwinds and headwinds. However, we do expect to continue to see stronger operating margins as we grow our volumes and improve operating leverage.\n",
"\n",
"Over a longer-term horizon, we are quite optimistic about the expansion of margins, though. From the hardware side, we are aggressively driving manufacturing innovations and operational efficiency to reduce cost. And with the rapid development of FSD, software-based profits will ultimately become a strong addition to the profits generated by selling hardware. So congratulations to the Tesla team for a terrific 2021, and thank you to our suppliers who supported us.\n",
"\n",
"Looking forward to another great year.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"I'd like to just second the thank you to suppliers. A lot of suppliers worked late nights, weekends, vacations around the world, and we're very grateful for that.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much. Let's go to the Q&A from the investor side. The first question was on 4680 cells, which we already answered, so let's go to the second question. How is the progress of the $25,000 compact car? Can you give an update?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Well, we're not currently working on the -- on a $25,000 car. We -- you know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be. I think that's sort of a question that -- it's sort of the wrong question, really.\n",
"\n",
"It's -- really the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous? I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don't know, a factor of four or five.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. The next question from investors is, since we're talking product road maps today, how do you view domestic cooling and heating in the context of accelerating the sustainable energy transition, and how might Tesla's HVAC and heat pump advances fit it?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"You want to talk about that, Drew?\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. I think from a mission perspective, it's very aligned. If you imagine replacing natural gas, water, and space heaters with electric heat pumps, it offsets something equivalent to like 80% of what a solar plus Powerwall system would offset, so it's very impactful. And we have learned a lot about how to make capable and reliable heat pumps that work in all environmental conditions, and are excited about the idea of working on that problem one day.\n",
"\n",
"Let me put it that way. It's definitely aligned with our mission to transition to sustainable -- accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. I think it really becomes quite a compelling solution to the consumer where you integrate the electric vehicles charging, solar, you know, energy storage, hot water, HVAC in a very tight, compact package. That also looks good. It just doesn't exist.\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. I mean, the integration of those systems in a house --\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"That's Lars, by the way.\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"I'm sorry. The integration of those systems in a house are no different than the integration of those systems in a vehicle. \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"The only difference is we do it all in the vehicle.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Way harder at a vehicle.\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"And then -- \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"It's so constrained on mass and volume and energy. \n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"It's like when you get to the house like, wow --\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"Kind of easy problem. \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. \n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"But, you know, obviously, those systems are all just disparate, and what we've been doing with Powerwall and charging solar is integrating them more and more. The next logical step is obviously HVAC and water and heating. So we will do that and we will integrate it probably better than anyone has. But, as you said, we have a lot of stuff on our plate.\n",
"\n",
"So -- \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, like system integration, too, like with phone --\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"Vehicle.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"You're going out and everything, and the car can -- like the house can just heat and cool things because those are coming home, you know, type of thing. \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"It still needs to be like randomly that temperature when you're not there or, you know --\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"When the cat moves.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, exactly. So just do sensible things and just work really, I think it would be just quite a game-changer down the road. We've got a lot of fish frying on it. And so, it is a thing we will do but we're not committing to a time frame at this point.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"And people should do it, anyway.\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. If somebody else wants to do it, yeah, I guess, please.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. It's super beneficial for achieving the goal here.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. The next question is, would you consider splitting FSD packages into perpetual and term licenses with a higher tier for both options for commercial use? A perpetual license that could be attached to individual or business and not the vehicle itself.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"No, I mean, this sounds maybe too complicated. We're just going to be focused on like what sells for the fully considered lowest cost per mile or kilometer of driving. And these other -- so that's what matters like how do you maximize the efficiency of getting people from one place to another and then charge them in a sensible way, including the charging infrastructure. That's a big part of it.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"So I'll be charging for money and charging for energy.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. The next question is, is Dojo on track for summer 2022? And what challenges, if any, are you working through? Is Dojo necessary for FSD to operate better in cities like New York City? Or on a separate note, where should we expect the first implementation of Tesla Bots in your factories?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"OK. There's a few questions on there, like six questions. Yeah, Dojo appears to be on track for doing something useful in the summer this year. The -- I think the threshold that really matters is at which point -- when does it become more competitive than a GPU cluster for training? And, obviously, the GPU cluster is getting better, so it's a moving target.\n",
"\n",
"But that's the goal I've set for the team is the -- if the FSD team running our GPU supercluster needs to tell me that they want to use Dojo instead. That's -- where -- that's the, you know, obvious sort of threshold. And I don't know when that will -- I wouldn't say like success is 100% certain here. I think, we just generally want to overestimate meeting options and underestimate ourselves.\n",
"\n",
"But it does seem as though we might pass that threshold next year with Dojo if, you know, we execute well. Dojo is not needed for full self-driving but it is a cost optimization on creating vast amounts of video data. Cost optimization also, a rate of improvement. You know -- so if you can train models faster, have a shorter iteration interval then you can make progress faster.\n",
"\n",
"So not everything can be distributed to zoning GPUs. There's some elements of serialization there. So -- and then if Dojo is competitive, then, you know, it does seem like the kind of thing where we would offer it to other companies that want to do neural net training. Those are very much a neural net training optimized system.\n",
"\n",
"You know -- but in theory, it should be better than a generalized computing platform or say, GPUs, which were not really intended for, you know, the pixel shader. It is not directly intended for optimizing training of neural networks. They just happen to work better than CPUs in most cases. So we should think like Dojos like a giant ASIC optimized for neural net training, especially video, or video-like things.\n",
"\n",
"But as -- like I said, we're not saying for sure Dojo would succeed. We think it will. We would encourage those who think this is an interesting problem to join Tesla, and -- yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. And the first use of Tesla Bots, whether it's in the factory or elsewhere?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. The first use of the Tesla Bot, Optimus, the Optimus name seems to be sticking at least internally, Optimus Subprime. Like if we can't find a use for it then we shouldn't expect that others would. So the first use of the Optimus robots would be at Tesla, kind of like moving parts around the factory or something like that.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"OK. Thank you very much. And the next question on insurance. When do you plan on having your insurance service rolled out in all the states? International rollout timing? In markets that have Tesla insurance, what kind of uptake rates are you seeing?\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. We currently offer Tesla insurance in five states in the U.S. Four of them are telematics, which is Texas, Illinois, Ohio, and Arizona, and then California, which has a more standard insurance offering based upon regulations there.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"It should be clear, like we are pushing very hard for California to change the rules to allow informatics, which basically means that, you know, you're as safe as you're driving is measured. So I think the current California rules are contrary to the best interest of the consumers in California, and should be changed.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. And that's evidenced by what we're seeing in Texas. \n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"We've been in this market now for about three months. And what we see in the data is the frequency of collision by folks who are given a feedback loop on how they are driving is quite a bit lower than the frequency of collision otherwise.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. And we get direct feedback on whether driving is safe. And if they drive safe, their insurance cost is less, so they drive safer. It encourages Tesla insurance with informatics, and real-time feedback encourages safer driving and rewards it monetarily.\n",
"\n",
"It's great.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Exactly. \n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"And so, we see that so far in Texas. Take rates have been quite strong. We measure this on the conversion rate from when folks quote to see what their monthly rate would be at the starting point to what percentage of them purchase. So we're very encouraged by the interest that we're seeing in Texas.\n",
"\n",
"And then we have enough history in Texas to see what does the loss ratios look like and how do the economics of the program work. And, you know, we're on the right track there as well. So we're comfortable with what we've seen in Texas to move as quickly as the intent to scale this across the U.S. Specifically on the question about when we will be in all states, you know, this is a slow process because of insurance being regulated at the state level, and so we have to go through each of those processes with each of the departments of insurance in each state.\n",
"\n",
"But our internal goal here, by the end of the year, is to be in enough locations that 80% of our customers within the U.S. could choose to sign up for Tesla insurance if they wanted to. There's a lot of uncertainty around that based upon the regulatory processes, but that's our goal. And then, as we make more progress rolling out in the states and each incremental state becomes a little bit less effort than the prior, that's when we'll turn our attention to the Europe market.\n",
"\n",
"We might be able to do that by the end of the year, starting to get work on Europe by the end of the year. We'll have to see how we progress in the U.S.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Next question is, what is your expected max capacity from each of your current factories, Freemont, Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin? And timing for new factory announcements?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"I don't think we want to comment on -- like that's -- it's always possible to increase the output of any given factory. To say what's the next capacity, well, it's difficult to say what that next capacity is because you put a lot of evidence that you increase capacity quite a lot. You know, I think there's -- look at the big picture, you initially always want to increase capacity at one factory because your logistics cost of transporting cars needs to be considered, especially as the cars become more affordable, you want to have factories that are not like thousands of miles away from the customers. So even if you could increase output, it may not actually be the smart thing to do.\n",
"\n",
"So, in the U.S., with, for example, with Giga Texas, I mean, coming up, we would want to deliver, say, Model Ys that are going to the eastern two-thirds of the United States from this factory. The logistics costs are going to be much less. But we will continue to increase output in Fremont and in -- at Giga Nevada and Shanghai. And as I said at the beginning of the call, this -- 2022 is the year we will be looking at factory locations to see what makes the most sense, possibly with some announcement by the end of this year.\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. And the next question is, what are the biggest obstacles for Cybertruck volume production besides battery shortage?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. There's a lot of new technology in the Cybertruck that will take some time to work through. And then, there's a question of like, what's the average cost of Cybertruck and to what degree is that affordable? You know, there's -- you can make something infinitely desirable, but if it's not affordable, that will constrain people's ability to buy it because they don't have the money.I worry more about like how do we the Cybertruck affordable despite having awesome technology. That's the thing that will really set the rate.\n",
"\n",
"Aspirationally, we'd like it to go, in terms of just a rough order of magnitude, we'd like Cybertruck to be at least on the order of 40 million vehicles a year. But it will take us a moment to get to that level.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. The next question is, how much of Tesla's margin improvement is from, number one, economies of scale; number two, production design -- production line design efficiencies; number three, reduced transportation costs from multiple plant locations; and number four, pricing versus cost inflation; or number five, other sources? And how much further could margins improve and why?\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, there's basically four major factors if we look over the last year to the margin improvement in the company. And they're in no particular order here but these are the big ones. So, our mix of Model Y is increasing, you know, as we've ramped that to higher capacity in Fremont and also in Shanghai. And the reason that matters is the Model Y is a vehicle that carries a higher profit than the Model 3.\n",
"\n",
"And so that is helpful on our margins. And then as we increase the volume on that program with labor efficiencies, fixed cost amortization, they improve and the costs go down as well. The second one here is localization in Shanghai has been a huge help for margins for the company. And, you know, the obvious things around logistics and duties is a big part of it, but we've also -- that factory had a different line design, more efficient from the start, and we've been pushing the boundaries on the volume there.\n",
"\n",
"So, that has been helpful. If you recall at the beginning of the year, we also were in a transition to the new version of the Model S and Model X. And so, as that has ramped over the course of the year, that has been helpful. And then, we've also done various price increases in certain markets on certain models, which has helped there.\n",
"\n",
"So, that's generally the story at a high level. You know, as we look over the next a quarter or two, as I mentioned in my opening remarks in the last call as well, you know, we have ramp inefficiencies from the launch of Austin and Berlin. We also have pressures coming from inflation, supply chain, raw materials, etc. And so, you know, where that nets out is hard to say in the immediate term.\n",
"\n",
"And we obviously, as a company, are going to be driving to increase margins as much as we can. But I just want to be realistic that we're launching two factories simultaneously here and it unavoidably will add cost to the business as we do that. And as we look further out, and Elon mentioned this in his opening remarks as well, you know, the software portion of the business, I think, is the one to really pay attention to. As full self-driving features get rolled out to more and more folks, I mean, for me, personally, I prefer to drive my car with the FSD data on, and I think as more and more people experience that, take rates there, and then as we work toward the robotaxi space, there's actually quite a bit of upside on margins from a software perspective.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, I think -- basically, everything pales in comparison to the value of robotaxi or personal driving. I mean, it's just -- I mean, that just tends to warm everything. You just go from having an asset that is -- has a utility of perhaps 12 hours a week per passenger car to maybe around 50 or 60 hours a week to a five times increase in the utility of the asset. The cost didn't change.\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, so that's where just things just had, you know, just kind of put your mind.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. And the last question from investors is, Elon mentioned Level 4 autonomy could be achieved this year. Is it based off initial FSD beta rollout experience, or is Level 4 ability predicated on Dojo being completed online?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"As mentioned earlier, Dojo is not required for full self-driving. You know, it should have a positive effect on the cost of training networks. You know, it's not just a question like does it get to full self-driving but really kind of like the \"march of nines\" of reliability, is it 99.999% reliable or 99.999999% reliable. This is -- it gets nutty.\n",
"\n",
"So, obviously, we want to get to close to perfection as possible. So, frankly, being safe than human is a low standard, not a high standard. People are very, very lossy, often distracted, tired, you know, texting. Anyway, it's remarkable that we don't have more accidents.\n",
"\n",
"So, it's -- yeah. So actually being better than a human, I think, is relatively very forward, frankly, how do you be 1,000% better or 10,000% better. Yeah, that's what, you know, gets much harder. But I think anyone who's been in the FSD beta program, I mean, if they were just to plot the progress of the beta interventions per mile, it's obviously trending to, you know, a very small number of interventions per mile and pace of improvement is fast.\n",
"\n",
"And there's several profound improvements to the FSD stack that are coming, you know, in the next few months. So, yeah, I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Let's go to analyst questions now. And the first question comes from Jed from Canaccord. Jed, feel free to unmute yourself and ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Jed Dorsheimer -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, thanks, and congratulations on a great year. Elon, I guess, my question is around the Megapack or your energy business. And so, as we look at the strategy or the supply chain constraints that you mentioned, you have two different strategies, or it seems like with Megapack and Powerwall, and I think the Powerwall was answered with 4680 and the 2170 opening up. So, I was wondering if you could just talk about the supply chain and LFP for the Megapack and what we should expect for that.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. To be clear, we do think that old stationary storage, Powerwall and Megapack, will be -- will transition to an iron-based system, basically a non-nickel system. Manganese is also, you know, could be part of the future, but primarily iron. It just comes out iron-nickel.\n",
"\n",
"We need something that is, you know, formed in a star before a supernova, ideally. So, you know, iron is. So that's because there's a ridiculous amount of iron on earth as is a ridiculous amount of lithium. So you can really expect all stationary storage to transition to iron over time.\n",
"\n",
"And like I said, with some -- manganese is like a wild card. There's also not a lot of manganese. And I should say like we did short-change the energy business last year, and that vehicle took priority over the energy side. So --\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Not on cells, but on chip side.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, on chip side, exactly. \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"So, yeah, we -- but -- we do see a very, you know, I mean, long-term probably terawatt-hour per year energy business. So, a lot. It's very vast. Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Jed Dorsheimer -- Canaccord Genuity -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"That's helpful. Thank you. So you what -- do you see that '22 is kind of the opening of that -- the energy business reaccelerating?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"It's hard to predict 2022 because we still have lingering supply chain -- there are still lingering supply chain issues globally. But I think the chip stuff -- at least the chip side of things appears to -- looks like it will alleviate end of this year or '23. I mean, there are a crazy number of chip fabs being built, which is great. The sheer number of chip fabs being built right now is exciting to see, yeah.\n",
"\n",
"So there could be other issues. We're trying to anticipate those as much as possible but, you know, predicting the future is difficult.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"And the goal is definitely to grow it this year.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. We'll grow it this year, for sure. It's just, you know, we -- if we're simply -- we're able to respond to demand, it might grow by like 200% or 300% or something, you know, as opposed to sort of 50% or something.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. I mean, I think it's exactly that. I mean, it's a question of does it double, triple, quadruple? I mean, either way, I think, you know, our plans are pretty ambitious for Megapack this year and storage in general. \n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"The exact amount of growth is hard to know. But ultimately -- I mean, to Elon's point about the growth of this business, I mean, we need to be growing it faster than the vehicle business.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"And it will naturally grow faster than the vehicle business once we can less shipthe --\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"The damn chip constraint, frankly. So it will grow like kelp on steroids, basically, on their own. It needs to. And our primary mission is to accelerate sustainable energy.\n",
"\n",
"That's always been our primary mission, and we're trying to stay true to that.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. The next question comes from Ben Kallo from Baird.\n",
"\n",
"Ben Kallo -- Baird -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering on the R&D front because like you said you have so many fish frying. How do you organize the R&D, you know, efforts so that you can start talking about all these new products? Is there like an incubator or some type of thing like that? But just structurally, I'm curious about that. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Well, we don't have incubators.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Or research centers.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Research centers. We don't have research centers.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"We're in it.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. We work on things that go into our products. Yeah, we're like this is a useful product that, you know, the world really needs. And we're just like, \"Let's make this thing, design it up and iterate fast, and then figure out how to make this at scale at a reasonable price.\" That last part is the super hard part.\n",
"\n",
"You know, many times we've said prototypes are easy, production is hard. We could work out that as a way of prototypes, but what's the point of that? Like you actually have to reach scale production and have cash and exceed cash out. That's the super, super hard part.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"So everybody needs to be in the factory often enough to be able to understand that last part of the equation. \n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"And if you're in the research center -- \n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. Doing them separately is like, you know, we're actually making products. So we --\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering Tesla\n",
"\n",
"We don't think of it as R&D and then like the product development. It's just one fucking -- \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"One go to just make great products.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"It was just the same general societally with those way too much value placed on the idea. It's like, you know, like the idea of -- like you have to have a kind of the idea of going to the moon. That's what the hard part. OK, going to the moon is the hard part by far.\n",
"\n",
"And the thing is that that is true for really most products. So this is just weighing too much value placed in the idea of -- versus execution. And we have ideas -- we have a bazillion ideas. So many ideas that we don't know what to do with.\n",
"\n",
"We just sort through them and say, \"Which one are we actually going to go through in the blood, sweat, and tears of bringing to volume production.\" That's the super -- and can we actually do that, right, that's tough.\n",
"\n",
"Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"And the closer you are to applying blood, sweat, and tears to actual production, the faster you'll be able to bring new things into actual production.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, exactly. You want to tie it back with production, just like the office we're sitting in right now literally looks over the Giga Texas production line, like the offices are integrated into the factory.\n",
"\n",
"Ben Kallo -- Baird -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much. The next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.\n",
"\n",
"Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yes, thank you, for taking my question. I have two, please. First, you spoke a lot about FSD and how the economics could be very attractive going forward. I'm wondering if you could just share what your current attach rate might be for FSD on your vehicles, or how to think about the progress of your attach rate or revenue in FSD, let's say, in '21 versus '20? And how much deferred revenue for FSD was drawn down during the year? And I have a follow-up, please.\n",
"\n",
"Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. I think the FSD stuff, you really don't want to be looking at the rearview mirror. It will not be a good indicator for the future. This is what you need to look out the front windscreen, so -- because it is such a profound step change.\n",
"\n",
"I mean, effectively long term, every car will have FSD. And so -- and the value of that will be a very big number. You know, it's like -- I just look at this as asset utilization. You have a passenger car, which normally is driven maybe 1.5 hours a day on average, maybe 10 -- 10 hours, 10, 12 hours a week.\n",
"\n",
"A lot of cars are in parking lots, so we're spending money, not just driving the cars but storing them all over the place. We can get rid of a lot of parking lots if you have a car that is operating all the time. But there will be a challenge with traffic. So, you know, we like this little tiny baby company, The Boring Company, which I initially started as a joke, but now I think it actually could be quite essential to alleviating the insane traffic that will happen when cars are autonomous because you reduce the pain of travel and you reduce the cost of travel so dramatically that there will be a crazy number of cars on the road.\n",
"\n",
"I mean, it's going to be -- I think it's way cheaper to point with robotaxi, which is an autonomous Tesla, which every car we've made in the past, three or four years will be capable of that than a bus or a subway. It will cost less than the subsidized value of a bus ticket. So, if we want to get -- I'm not going to take the bus, you know, if it costs you, I don't know, for argument's sake, $2 to travel 10 miles point to point, nobody's taking the bus, especially in cold weather or it's dark or maybe a little bit dangerous or how bad, you know. I just do not understand how profound a change this is.\n",
"\n",
"It's not like some little feature, select the most profound software upgrade, maybe in history. Millions of cars suddenly have about four or five times utility in the U.S. overnight. I don't actually know how to quantify that financially except that it's some big number.\n",
"\n",
"Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"OK. Thank you for that. Elon, I was wondering if I could just follow up and ask you. You talked about your product roadmap and also your goal to keep growing at 50% per year or better.\n",
"\n",
"That would put you at 3.2 million vehicles or more in 2024. And I think you made reference to Cybertruck, you know, maybe being 250,000 vehicles. If there is no $25,000 vehicle being worked on, is it really realistic to think that you can sell more than 3 million vehicles with two very high-volume cars and Cybertruck in 2024, or how do we think about that, or what else is missing in that equation?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. I mean, it's apparent from the questions that the gravity of full self-driving is not fully appreciated. If an asset has five times more utilization than the -- it's like dividing the cost of that asset by five. So if you have a $50,000 car, it's like having a $10,000 car all of a sudden, but maybe better than that because, still, you don't want to drive.\n",
"\n",
"So the person can be engaged in productivity or amusement instead of having to onerously drive through traffic. So it's probably better than five times, I don't know. Yeah. I mean, basically, if the cost of our cars do not change at all, we would still sell as many as we could possibly make.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. And the next question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.\n",
"\n",
"Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hey, thank you for taking my question. Can you hear me well?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"I wanted to come back on battery. So, it's great to hear on one hand that you guys expect to sell like the first car with 4680 this quarter, and at the same time, that you don't really depend on that ramp to achieve your -- what you hope to achieve in terms of significant volume growth this year. And the question I had is, you know, I understand well the ramp of 4680 internally, but I'd be curious to hear you talk about how you think about 4680 as being a form factor that your suppliers could adopt as well. And how you see in the long run, in the greater scheme of things, you know, what does 4680 become? Is it going to be outside of Tesla as the largest form factor for batteries? Is it something that you guys are going to deploy in all cars, whatever the chemistry also in the Megapack, in all your energy storage business? And do you expect eventually a lot of other companies to use that form factor as well?\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. On the 4680 as a form factor, yes, we've engaged with a number of our, you know, partners or suppliers on the form factor and they're all working on it. And, you know, they look at it the way we look at it as a way to drive fundamental cost efficiencies in production and also, ultimately, the design of the cell itself to drive the cost down of the cell. And -- so that's what's engaged -- I mean, we're engaged because we think it's a good form factor there, engaged because they think it's a good form factor, and we're -- we want people to make it for sure.\n",
"\n",
"To the question about should everything be 4680, it doesn't have to be. And in the end, it's about cost competitiveness, scalability of manufacturing. And when you compare like an iron cell with a nickel cell, for example, like there are some just physics-based differences in what happens in certain corner cases that would drive different form factors, and we just have to be cognizant of that and designed to that. So it isn't like the ultimate form factor for all things.\n",
"\n",
"There's other form factors that could be better for an iron cell, for example. So -- \n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, we don't use 4680 at all for the iron upgrade cells.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"No.\n",
"\n",
"Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"OK. Thanks. And I have a quick follow-up on chips. So you've talked a lot about all this shortage and the supply difficulties.\n",
"\n",
"And I was wondering if you could give us some color on, you know, like the power chips you need for investors and all the power systems you're putting together versus like the more traditional logic chips, if the situation is different between the two? And should we understand from the situation today that you're working very hard also at expanding the scope of your suppliers? And should we expect like Tesla to take on board additional suppliers in the near term, especially on the power side?\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Well, last year was chip hell of many chips, so silicon carbide inverters or -- certainly one of them, but --\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Honestly, there's a lot of annoying very boring parts.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yes. It's a ton of very simple control chips that run-of-the-mill, literally, you know -- \n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"[Inaudible] you know.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, basic chips to control.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Things that reference oscillators, so very boring things.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, exactly. Like the little chip that allows you to move your seat back and forth. That actually was a big problem that can make these.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"So -- like -- but a lot of these things are alleviating. I think there's some degree of the toilet paper problem as well, where, you know, there was a toilet paper shortage during COVID, and like, obviously, it wasn't really certainly a tremendous enhanced need for ass wiping. It's just people panicked in order to -- and got every paper you could possibly wipe your ass with, basically. I was like, \"Is this like a real thing or not?\" I actually took my kids to the H-E-B and Walmart in Texas to just confirm if this was real.\n",
"\n",
"Indeed, it was. And there's plenty of food and everything else, but just nothing, no paper products that didn't cause a split up. So an odd choice for people to panic about. And those things are -- actually, if end of the world is coming having toilet paper is the least of your problems.\n",
"\n",
"So, I think we saw just a lot of companies over-order chips and they buffer the chips. And so, we should see -- we are seeing alleviation in almost every area, but the output of the vehicle is -- goes with the least lucky. You know, what is the most problematic item in the entire car is there's like, at least, 10,000 unique parts in the car, so waiting more than that if you go further off the supply chain, and it's just -- which one is going to be the least lucky one this time? It's hard to say.\n",
"\n",
"Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering\n",
"\n",
"You know, I mean, on a go-forward basis, right, the idea is to continue to drive simplification, so there are fewer unique parts, fewer of them. On the power side, in particular, you know, it's still like an area of like technological development where the next chip can do the same thing with less diarrhea, so like the total fab required to accomplish the function goes down. So there's still room to grow without needing more fab capacity. But in general, there's a lot more fab capacity coming, so that's like a win-win there.\n",
"\n",
"Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, exactly. It's not a long-term thing because there's going to be -- there's a great amount of chip fabs being built, which is great.\n",
"\n",
"Martin Viecha\n",
"\n",
"Well, thank you very much. Unfortunately, that is all the time we have for this session. Thanks very much for all your good questions, and we'll speak to you again in three months' time. Have a good day.\n",
"\n",
"Bye, bye.\n",
"\"\"\""
],
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"ford_text=\"\"\"\n",
"Prepared Remarks:\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Holly, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, executive director of investor relations.\n",
"\n",
"Lynn Tyson -- Executive Director of Investor Relations\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Holly. Welcome to Ford Motor Company's fourth quarter 2021 earnings call. With me today are Jim Farley, our president and CEO; and John Lawler, our chief financial officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Marion Harris, CEO of Ford Credit.\n",
"\n",
"Today's discussions include some non-GAAP references. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck, along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content, at shareholder.ford.com.\n",
"\n",
"10 stocks we like better than Ford Motor Company\n",
"When our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.*\n",
"\n",
"They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Ford Motor Company wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.\n",
"\n",
"See the 10 stocks\n",
"\n",
"*Stock Advisor returns as of January 10, 2022\n",
"\n",
"Today's discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from the stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on Page 30. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year over year.\n",
"\n",
"Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis. Product mix is volume-weighted. A quick update on our near-term IR events. On Tuesday, February 8, John Murphy from Bank of America will host a fireside chat with John Lawler and Kumar Galhotra, who is president, Americas and international markets group.\n",
"\n",
"On Wednesday, February 23, Jim Farley will participate in a fireside chat with Rod Lache at the Wolfe Global Auto, Auto Tech and Mobility Conference. And on Thursday, February 24, Bob Holycross, our vice president, sustainability, environment and safety engineering; and Dave Webb, Ford's treasurer, will participate in the RBC Global Environmental, Social and Governance Conference. Now I'll turn the call over to Jim Farley.\n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, Lynn. Hello, everyone. Well, some may have described 2021 as a breakthrough year for Ford, I would simply portray it as a year of important progress for the company. We strengthened our base business last year and now expect to deliver even stronger results this year.\n",
"\n",
"And just as critical, we started moving with real speed and ambition to build a modern Ford. Our true breakthroughs are still ahead of us, like rapidly scaling production of our popular new battery electric vehicles, like turning Ford Pro a new growth engine for our commercial customers businesses and ours, like building our intelligent software platform to revolutionize our customers' experience. Even with the recent momentum, I know some observers may remain skeptical that a 118-year-old company like Ford will emerge as a winner in these disruptive times in our industry. And I'm OK with that.\n",
"\n",
"We're going to compete like a challenger, speak with our actions, prove ourselves over time. So let's dive into last year. As I mentioned, we have significantly improved our base business. In North America, our largest market, we have a very hot portfolio of new vehicles.\n",
"\n",
"We've now won awards of North America Truck and Utility of the Year for two years running. That's never happened by any company. The new Bronco, the Bronco Sport, the Maverick, the Mustang Mach-E, all of them, brand-new name plates for our lineup, all of them kits. Last month, we launched E-Transit.\n",
"\n",
"In the spring, we're in the middle of launching F-150 Lightning. Few people ask us any more about why we phased out sedans, and many more asking when they could take delivery of the new Bronco or Maverick or Lightning. So we're doing everything we can in our powers to increase our production and break constraints. We don't like making our customers wait, and we're taking action to ensure that they don't pay unreasonable markups.\n",
"\n",
"We've also made progress outside of North America, and this is very important. Ford has been a one-legged stool for too long. We stayed in Europe and South America and other regions because we really believe we can create sustainably strong businesses in those markets. And we want to serve these customers with better, more connected and electric products and services.\n",
"\n",
"The deep restructuring in Europe and South America have put us in a position to grow profitability going forward. In China, we're now set up to play a much bigger role in the EV boom going on there. We've quietly grown Lincoln into a strong contender in the world's largest luxury vehicle market. In fact, China is now the No.\n",
"\n",
"1 Lincoln market globally. Our international markets group is profitable, and we're now preparing for the important launch of our next-generation Ranger pickup this year. While we remain in the teeth of the COVID crisis and semiconductor shortages, our overall business is still in great shape. And at the same time, we're rapidly making progress on key aspects of the Ford+ plan.\n",
"\n",
"And for customers, that means more distinctive products and solutions, more always on relationships with our brands and adding ever-improving user experiences. Now to deliver these things, we're building new muscles, and that certainly includes scaling up our production of electric vehicles, as I mentioned. We under-called the demand for our first wave of EVs. The Mustang Mach-E, the E-Transit, the F-150 Lightning.\n",
"\n",
"In the past six months, we doubled our 2023 planned capacity for EVs to 600,000 units a year. Now this required everything, from working with SK and LG to increase battery supplies to knocking down walls at our Rouge Electric Vehicle Center, while the mortar was still wet to make room to improve and build more Lightnings. Our team knows how to scale manufacturing, and we're now harnessing that capability to ramp up production of EVs. We also have a task force dedicated to lowering the bill of materials for our bets, above and beyond just the usual decline in material costs.\n",
"\n",
"For example, on Mustang Mach-E, in just the last month, our team found $1,000 of opportunity per vehicle. And that's delivered through design simplification, vertical integration and leveraging our scale with supply chain as we ramp up production. And that team is just getting started. We plan to take full advantage of our first-mover position in the fully electric pickup truck market, starting with Lightning.\n",
"\n",
"But there's much more to come. In the coming months, we'll break ground on the BlueOval City electric truck plant in Tennessee. It will be the largest, the most advanced manufacturing complex in our history, and it will produce Ford's second generation of a full-sized electric pickup in high volumes starting in 2025. And at the same time, we have three large-scale battery plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, which will be coming on stream with capacity to produce enough battery cells for more than 1 million vehicles a year.\n",
"\n",
"This is in addition to our battery sourcing in China and Europe. We are well on our way to achieve at least a 40% mix of BEVs by 2030, with strong margins and equal to our higher market share in the key high-profit, high-volume segments we compete. For example, the F-150 Lightning, if we had full production today to meet our current demand, we would rival the Model Y as the leading BEV nameplate in the U.S. market.\n",
"\n",
"We can't grow a profitable BEV business without a very healthy ICE business. And to do this, we're reducing complexity everywhere while increasing leveraging the benefits of our connectivity. Now this includes things like fewer top hats guided by customer demand and a judicious approach to vehicle content based on deep insights generated from that same vehicle data. We're also being disciplined with capital as we deploy that to our ICE products, recognizing that as a mix of BEVs increases, we will continue to manufacture ICE vehicles but with a focus on optimizing cash returns.\n",
"\n",
"So our goal is to continue to improve our automotive EBIT margins. Let me say that again. Our goal is to continue to improve our auto EBIT margins even as we ramp up the mix of BEVs. In 2021, we began to bring our vision of an always on experience for retail and commercial customers to life.\n",
"\n",
"Our customers are realizing the benefits of our over-the-air software updates. But that's just the beginning. We're using our hubs in places like Palo Alto to attract more and more great software engineers and technology specialists. And we're fundamentally changing the culture of engineering inside Ford.\n",
"\n",
"The hardware will always be important, but the software and the embedded systems will define the next generation of our vehicles' experiences. I think, customers will be amazed at the benefits as we move to central compute rather than the distributed compute we have across all the supplier-provided modules today. Our human-centered interface professionals are now in one single organization, with authority over the in-car digital experiences, interfaces, screens and controls. And we're committed to providing an environment where software engineers can do the very best work of their careers.\n",
"\n",
"Before I turn it over to John, let me close, the velocity of change at Ford is increasing. We're not seeking half measures. Fear of change and risk has never served legacy automakers well in the past couple of decades. We're done with incremental change.\n",
"\n",
"We have a clear plan, a bias fraction and whatever-it-takes mindset. We're confident our strong base business will generate the capital we need to fund a very exciting future. We're recruiting incredible talent from outside the company to work with the best people from Ford. As excited as our customers are for that great portfolio we have in the market today, we can't wait to show them what's coming in the future.\n",
"\n",
"Now I'll turn it over to John who will take you through the results for the quarter and our expectations for this year.\n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Jim. In the face of ongoing challenges with semiconductor constraints and industrywide supply chain disruptions, we executed our Ford+ plan, including closing out our global redesign, strengthening our product portfolio and investing in exciting new opportunities fundamental to growth and value creation. For the year, we posted $10 billion in adjusted EBIT with a margin of 7.3%. That's our strongest performance since 2016.\n",
"\n",
"We delivered right at the midpoint of our guidance range, adjusting for the reclass of our first quarter Rivian game to a special item. And despite a 6% decline in wholesale, our automotive business posted its strongest EBIT margin since 2016. North America delivered an 8.4% EBIT margin and is firmly on the glide path to a 10% EBIT margin. In addition, our operations outside the U.S.\n",
"\n",
"collectively posted their best results since 2017. I'm very proud of the team's hard work, the resiliency last year as we rose to the challenge and optimized constrained production to protect customer orders, new launches, our electrification strategy and our most profitable vehicles. We also remain highly disciplined with our incentive spend and mix management, which, combined with improvement in warranty costs, more than offset commodity headwinds and supply chain-related production losses. Ford Credit, whose profits and dividends are an important source of capital for us, delivered a strong year.\n",
"\n",
"EBT was $4.7 billion as auction values were at record highs and credit losses were near record lows. Free cash flow was $4.6 billion, and we ended the year with strong cash and liquidity, more than $36 billion and $52 billion, respectively, which now includes our stake in Rivian valued at $10.6 billion at the end of the year. In 2021, we continue to advance our capital strategy given the improvements we're seeing in the underlying business. We reinstated the regular dividend at $0.10 per share in the fourth quarter as we continue to focus on creating value for our shareholders.\n",
"\n",
"We also further strengthened our balance sheet by repurchasing $7.6 billion of high-cost debt, deleveraging the balance sheet and significantly reducing our ongoing interest expense. We introduced the industry's first fully integrated sustainable financing framework, covering both an auto OEM and its captive finance company. And in November, following the launch of the framework, we completed our inaugural $2.5 billion green bond issuance, which was met with incredible investor demand and will help fund our exciting BEV portfolio. Our strong balance sheet, including cash, provides a solid foundation to continue to invest in our Ford+ priorities.\n",
"\n",
"So let me briefly touch on the fourth quarter. With a margin of 5.4%, adjusted EBIT was $2 billion, and we generated $2.3 billion in free cash flow. Some modeled stronger EBIT for us in this quarter. We know that was largely driven by higher volume expectations relative to the 10% sequential increase we guided to in October and lower corporate other expenses.\n",
"\n",
"North America delivered $1.8 billion of profit with a margin of 7.1%. Volume was up 10% on a sequential basis as supply chain constraints eased and custom demand for our products remained strong. South America delivered a modest profit for the second consecutive quarter, and the business is now set up to deliver sustainable profitability. With restructuring of the legacy business complete, the region is now focused on strengthening Ford's position in the truck market, growing its new commercial vehicle business and enriching customer experiences.\n",
"\n",
"In Europe, the underlying trajectory of our business continues to accelerate toward a 6% EBIT margin. However, the adverse effect of near-term supply chain disruption continues to mask that improvement. Importantly, we were the No. 1 commercial vehicle brand in Europe for the seventh consecutive year, and transit continues to have an extremely healthy order bank.\n",
"\n",
"Mustang Mach-E sales in the region are off to a strong start, with the order bank building momentum as we accelerate the transition to BEV. In China, Lincoln continues to be a real bright spot and gain share in the highly profitable and growing premium segment. In the fourth quarter, we achieved record sales of the brand in China, contributing to an almost 50% increase for the year. We are expanding the Lincoln portfolio in 2022 with the launch of the all-new Zephyr.\n",
"\n",
"The order bank for that vehicle opened recently and is off to a fast start. In the fourth quarter, we also achieved an important electrification milestone in China as we began local production and customer deliveries of the Mustang Mach-E. Our direct-to-customer model for Mach-E allows people to order online and through 25 Ford select city stores. Our international markets group performed well in the fourth quarter and had a record year playing to its strengths, especially from our flagship Ranger pickup, which delivered full year segment share of 14.9%, up 1.1 percentage points year over year.\n",
"\n",
"We also announced major investments in both South Africa and Thailand to modernize production and launch the next-generation Ranger from four assembly plants later this year. And in mobility, we've made steady progress toward the scaled commercialization of moving people and moving goods, and we are confident in Argo's progress in delivering a Level 4 autonomous vehicle solution. And in addition, we are rationalizing our investment portfolio and focusing on autonomous development. Now I'll share with you our current thinking about 2022.\n",
"\n",
"We expect supply constraints to remain fluid throughout the year, reflecting a variety of factors, including semiconductors and COVID. Based on what we see now, we believe our full year wholesales will be up about 10% to 15% in 2022, with a high single to low digit decline in the first quarter, reflecting supplier shortages related to Omicron shutdown and semiconductors. For the full year, we expect to earn between $11.5 billion and $12.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, and that's up 15% to 25% versus 2021. And the high end of the range equates to an adjusted company EBIT margin of 8% and our North America business at 10% EBIT margin, which, if we achieve, would be one year earlier than the target we shared with you last May.\n",
"\n",
"Now turning to GAAP results for a minute. It's important to point out that each quarter, we will mark-to-market our investment in Rivian, which sits in cash and marketable securities on our balance sheet. This is not something we can forecast. The mark-to-market may cause volatility in our quarterly GAAP, net income and EPS results.\n",
"\n",
"So looking at how our adjusted EBIT guidance rolls up. Our range assumes significantly higher profits in North America and collected profitability outside of North America as we realize the full benefits of our global redesign efforts. We also expect Ford Credit EBT to be strong but lower than 2021 profits, and we expect mobility and corporate other EBIT to be roughly flat. Lastly, we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow of between $5.5 billion and $6.5 billion.\n",
"\n",
"Now other assumptions we factored into our guidance include: first, we expect customer demand enthusiasm to remain strong for our new and iconic nameplates. We will have a full year of production of the award-winning Bronco and Maverick in addition to a robust BEV lineup with Mustang Mach-E, E-Transit and F-150 Lightning, all in production. Second, with wholesales up about 10% to 15%, we anticipate the pricing environment to remain strong, although the interplay between volume and pricing will remain dynamic. Third, we expect commodity headwinds of about $1.5 billion to $2 billion.\n",
"\n",
"Fourth, we anticipate other inflationary pressures, which will impact a broad range of costs. And fifth, at Ford Credit, we expect auction values to remain strong in 2022 as supply constraints persist. However, as I mentioned, we anticipate lower EBT reflecting primarily nonrecurrence of reserve releases, fewer returned off-lease vehicles and more normalized credit losses. Most importantly, we're committed to our Ford+ plan, and we'll continue to invest aggressively to drive growth and value creation.\n",
"\n",
"This includes devoting resources to customer-facing technology, connectivity, our always on relationships with customers and electrification. We are confident the long-term payback from those investments will be substantial. So that wraps up our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to hear and address what's on your mind.\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.\n",
"\n",
"Questions & Answers:\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. [Operator instructions] And our first question is going to come from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.\n",
"\n",
"John Murphy -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Good evening, everybody. Thanks for the time tonight. Just a first question. Jim, there's been a lot of speculation that you might consider spinning a portion of the future car business, whether it be EV or AV with Argo.\n",
"\n",
"But there's also the backside of that that might make more sense to spin some of your legacy ICE assets and have the entire company become a more pure-play EV/AV company in totality. So I mean, how do you think about this? And what would you be your motivations either way? And how you -- I mean, how are you strategizing this?\n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, John. Yeah, I don't want to speculate on rumors or speculate on the speculation in the press. But I will go back to something we said and I've said over and over again, which is running a successful ICE business and the successful BEV business are not the same. The customers are different.\n",
"\n",
"We think the go-to-market is going to have to be different. The product development process and the kinds of products we develop are different. The procurement supply chain are all different. The talent is different.\n",
"\n",
"The level of in-sourcing is different. And actually, the rhythm of the business is different, fundamentally different. So I'm not going to talk about speculation in the press, but I will tell you that the way we're operating the businesses acknowledges those differences. And I'm really excited about the company's commitment to operate the businesses as they should be.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.\n",
"\n",
"Rod Lache -- Wolfe Auto Team\n",
"\n",
"Hi, everybody. I wanted to ask you a little bit about margins. As John said, it looks like you guys will hit 8% if you hit the high end of your target range. And Jim, you said that you're targeting improving margins from here.\n",
"\n",
"So maybe you can give us a little bit more color on that, how we should think about it? I'm not sure that 8% is the benchmark anymore just given how many years ago that's been and how many changes there are to the business. You're ramping up a lot of spending on engineering and spending up in EV infrastructure, but you're also going to grow the Ford Pro business. So maybe you can just give us some of the puts and takes, how to think about it? And as part of it, if you might just give us a data point on where Ford Pro stood in 2021.\n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, hi, Rod, it's John. So I guess, I would say that, as Jim just said, that we're looking at the ICE business and the BEV business, and we're managing both differently. When you look at the ICE transition, I think there are still a lot of opportunities for us to improve that business. We're very focused on reducing our structural costs.\n",
"\n",
"We've done a lot already, but there's a lot more that we think we can do there. We're looking at operating with much lower stock levels as our business continues to develop. So we'll operate at leaner inventories than we have in the past, which will help our top line, and continue to strengthen that top line. We're improving our quality, which is important.\n",
"\n",
"We saw that come through this year from a year-over-year warranty standpoint was down roughly $1.4 billion. And we want to be at the top in quality in every segment, and that's going to have opportunity for the business. We're also working to revitalize our business through our digital capabilities, leveraging what we have from the connected vehicle to improve warranty even further, as well as improve what we're doing from a manufacturing standpoint and leverage that technology to bring those types of cost down. There's opportunities in maximizing our parts business, and we're going to lower our distribution costs.\n",
"\n",
"There's opportunity there. So we see that over time, as we manage the ICE business, there's opportunity to improve margins even further from there. And then, when you talk about BEV, so as we've talked about in past calls, our BEV margins are not where we intend it to be. We have opportunity, but we need to do that through scaling them, right? We're not going to chase top hats.\n",
"\n",
"We're going to look at scale. We're going to want to have a strong lineup where we can lean into it with key vehicles in high-volume segments like we are today with Mustang Mach-E, the Lightning and in our commercial vehicles with the Transit. We're going to reduce complexity, right? We know that one of the things that we need to do on our vehicles, and we saw that, as Jim talked about, with the team finding $1,000 a unit on Mach-E, and they just got started is that we need to approach the design of these vehicles differently. And that's what's really important about having the first-mover advantage there.\n",
"\n",
"We're on the road with these. We're in production with these. We understand what we need to do in that second generation, and we're off doing that right now, improving what we have on the road today and really bringing that knowledge into our second-generation design. And then, as I said earlier, on the ICE business, we're going to leverage the compute on the vehicles to really lower our manufacturing costs and leverage that compute to simplify what we do coming down the line and bring that down to the bottom line of the vehicle and then distribution.\n",
"\n",
"We all know the difference in the distribution cost for the legacy system that's out there versus what we see with other manufacturers. So that's an opportunity for us to work with our partners to improve that. So on both of those, we see opportunities. And then, as you said, Rod, there's opportunities to grow our business and lean into our leading position in commercial vehicles with Ford Pro.\n",
"\n",
"And we're looking to grow that business to $45 billion in revenues by 2025. And so, I think there's opportunities across both of our key segments and with Ford Pro to improve the business as we move forward beyond the 8%. And now, we need to stay extremely focused and relentless on that execution.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. And our next question is going to come from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.\n",
"\n",
"Dan Levy -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, thank you. Dan Levy with Credit Suisse. I'd like to ask about your JV with GlobalFoundries and just broadly about what you're trying to do with electronic components and sort of the notion of simplification, which you've talked more about. So we've heard that with GlobalFoundries, I think Hau Thai-Tang mentioned you'd like to control more of the sub-sourcing to suppliers.\n",
"\n",
"You'd like to dictate more of the design of some of the electronic products that in the past have been handled by the suppliers. Maybe you could help us unpack this. How significant of a change is this in your operating model where you frankly focused on just the core vehicle itself and outsourcing where you can? How achievable is this, especially given you're concurrently undergoing this transition to EV? And broadly, how should we think of the financial implications given you're going from what's been more of a just-in-time approach on inventory and components to now more of a just in case and deeper in the supply chain? Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thank you for your question. Perhaps the biggest gift for all the pain we're going through now in semiconductors is that we have very painfully learned the lesson that we cannot manage the supply chain for these key components as we have. In fact, you could argue that in the change of transition to these digital electric vehicles that supply chain could be one of the biggest advantages a particular company has or doesn't have. The way we look at it is the key electric components, memory chips, semiconductors.\n",
"\n",
"I would break semiconductors into two types. I'll come back with GlobalFoundries in a second. Feature-rich chips that we still use a lot. A window regulator doesn't need to have a 4-nanometer chip.\n",
"\n",
"And the advance -- but we also have sensors, power electronics for our inverters, the batteries themselves all the way back to the mine, the inverters of different battery. Chemistries itself have different raw materials and kind of ecosystems that support them. So this is a very important topic for the company. How different it is? It's really different.\n",
"\n",
"We need different talent at the company. We need physical inspection of the actual producers. We need direct contracts with them. We need to design the SoC ourselves.\n",
"\n",
"We need to direct in the case -- in some cases, to even direct prefer build to print or actually use supplier XYZ to get out of where we've been. And this takes talent. It takes a different approach. It takes more resources.\n",
"\n",
"On GlobalFoundries, it's kind of the first big bet, but there'll be many, many more coming for us. We're very dependent on TSMC for our feature-rich nodes. Obviously, the capacity is at risk over time as the industry moves to more advanced nodes, including us. And as I said, we're going to need feature-rich nodes for many years to come.\n",
"\n",
"GlobalFoundries knows how to build them. They know to build them in the United States. We can partner with the government, depending on the CHIPS Act to capacitize here. It will be a few years until we benefit from that, but it's a really big thing to descale ourselves on the feature-rich chips from the current ecosystem that we depend on around the world.\n",
"\n",
"And I think, GlobalFoundries is a really interesting deal when we get into the details. We have to put cash up when we participate. Those feature-rich semis will be used by other companies, industrial companies, not just Ford. It's a really interesting deal.\n",
"\n",
"And I was talking to the U.S. government today about how critical this is for our company. You can expect the same kind of thing on advanced nodes and all the other components I mentioned, including more deals on the raw material for various types of battery chemistry. And this is a culture change at Ford.\n",
"\n",
"As I said, this is part of the rhythm change between ICE and BEV.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Ryan Brinkman with J.P. Morgan. \n",
"\n",
"Ryan Brinkman -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, thanks for taking my question. Slide 20 shows you with $36.5 billion of cash and investments, which might be a record, but it is certainly the most that I can remember and compares to, I think, like five-plus years ago, you used to talk about wanting to have cash of something closer to in excess of $20 billion with like another $10 billion or $13 billion of more liquidity on top of that. I get that there's more uncertainty now with the pandemic and the chip shortage. And of course, you're investing heavily for electrification.\n",
"\n",
"Despite those investments, though, I mean, you're still calling for $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion of FCF this year versus the dividend costs like $1.5 billion or $1.6 billion. So with the current trajectory, it seems like the record cash pile should only grow bigger in 2022. I'm just curious what your thoughts are on this, whether you have any updated thoughts on the optimal capital structure, over what time or under what conditions you might move toward that more optimal capital structure. And it being so far above the earlier targeted cash balance might influence how you go about deciding what to do with the Rivian stake once the lockup expires. \n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thanks, Ryan. So yeah, we're really pleased with the position we have from a cash standpoint because it gives us the flexibility to invest in the business as we go. We've talked about the investments we'll be making in BEVs. We'll be breaking capacity constraints, and we're going to continue to focus on scaling as quickly as we can.\n",
"\n",
"The other thing we need to think about is the supply chain for our BEVs. There's opportunities potentially for vertical integration. There's opportunities for looking beyond as we move into these connected vehicles with more advanced electronics, potentially leveraging capital to secure supply chain there. So there's a lot of opportunities as we move forward to leverage this cash to improve the business.\n",
"\n",
"We're also focused on our shareholders. And of course, total shareholder returns is important as well. So we're going to continue to provide dividends to our consumers -- to our shareholders, which is important for us as we move forward given our shareholder base. So I think, what you'll see is that that cash balance is gonna be a benefit for us as we look to grow the business, as we look to expand, as we look to vertically integrate, as we look to secure our supply chain and we continue to develop our Ford+ plan. \n",
"\n",
"Ryan Brinkman -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Very interesting. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Our next question will come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.\n",
"\n",
"Emmanuel Rosner -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you never much. Good evening. I wanted to ask you a little bit more detail related to two items in the 2022 outlook. The first one is your volume and mix assumption.\n",
"\n",
"In the fourth quarter, when I look at the North American walk, your wholesale were up something like 60,000 units year over year, but the volume mix piece of your North American bridge was up only $100 million, and that's despite what F-150 may be up like 34% year over year if IHS is right. And so, just curious what's going on in terms of mix and why that contribution didn't really flow through to the EBIT. And how do you think about, as you grow your volume 10% to 15% in 2022, what kind of EBIT contribution can we expect from this? That's the first item. And then, the second one is in terms of additional investment costs, so you've quantified a step-up in CapEx for 2022.\n",
"\n",
"I'm just curious if there are things in the income statement that you're able to quantify in terms of additional investments in technology that we should think about as we model 2022.\n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"So let me focus on 2022 first. So looking at the walk for 2022, you have to think about the 10% to 15% in the volume growth, but mix is also a strong part of that on a year-over-year basis. We expect to see continued strong mix. Pricing, as I said in my remarks, we do expect the continued strong pricing environment.\n",
"\n",
"So when you look at volume, mix and pricing, we expect that to be up about $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion. And so, I'll just walk through what -- where we see that on the bridge to 2022. We are continuing to invest in modernization, and that was along with our product related spending as we're continuing to build out our BEV business. That's about $1.5 billion headwind, but that's broadly offset with other efficiencies that we're working on.\n",
"\n",
"You also see that commodities are gonna be a headwind next year of about $1.5 billion to $2 billion. And then, Ford Credit is gonna be strong, but we do expect them to be down about $1.5 billion. And then, of course, we've got lower net pension income. So we expect the top line to be strong with the volume increase.\n",
"\n",
"We continue to expect to have strong mix. And then, we expect pricing to be a strength as well on a year-over-year basis. \n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"All right. And our next --\n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Sorry, what's nice about what we're seeing this year or our forecast this year is we're seeing good profit leverage from that incremental top line. And I think, that's very encouraging. We have lost statistics about how that compares in the past, but that hasn't always been the case at Ford. It's great to see that top-line flow into our profitability increase.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. And our next question is going to come from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo. \n",
"\n",
"Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just following up on the walk. If I actually annualize Q4, you're running at only $8 billion.\n",
"\n",
"What was particularly weaker about this quarter as a sort of starting point? It's also sort of down sequentially on higher sales. Is that seasonality, higher commodity costs hitting worse this quarter? Any color there? \n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"From a quarter-over-quarter basis and what -- how the quarter developed, we hit the midpoint of the guidance. And one of the things is, I think, some expected volumes to be up higher than what we had guided. And just we had supply chain constraints hitting us this quarter. Omicron disrupted several of our key suppliers.\n",
"\n",
"They couldn't produce. They couldn't get us products. But net-net, when you look at the fourth quarter relative to where we were third quarter, let's say, as a proxy, volume and mix was up slightly. It was up about six-tenths.\n",
"\n",
"But then we had additional headwinds on commodities. We had some modernization costs that came through, specifically around our IT, as well as connectivity as we're investing in those growth areas. And then, we saw costs come through from inflation. We saw costs come through on transportation, on fuel, etc.\n",
"\n",
"So we're seeing some of those headwinds were hitting us in the fourth quarter. But demand was strong. If we could have met the demand and the production without the disruptions, you would have seen a stronger quarter. And so, as we go into 2022, as we see those supply constraints ease, as we see the demand for our really strong product lineup, we see the top line growing.\n",
"\n",
"We see continued improvement in mix. We see continued improvement in price. And that's gonna be much more of a tailwind versus some of the headwinds we're seeing that --[Audio gap] \n",
"\n",
"Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"And just following up on the mix, any color on how the Lightning will impact as it runs in, obviously, pretty large battery there? Is that gonna be dilutive as we think about the second half as that starts to ramp? \n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"No. I don't think that as we ramp up at the start with the launch this year that it's going to have a significant impact on what we see from a standpoint of our profits in North America. And then, coming back, I think one of the questions, Colin, you had asked that I didn't touch upon was the fourth quarter or maybe it was Emmanuel earlier, on the mix side is we did have lower Super Duty mix in the quarter, and that was, again, driven by supply chain disruptions. There were vehicles that we weren't able to build and complete because of certain commodities that weren't coming through to get those vehicles down the line and done. \n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Our next question will come from Brian Johnson with Barclays. \n",
"\n",
"Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yes, good afternoon. I want to talk a little bit about dealer pricing versus your pricing. The Detroit Press ran some articles in January on taking action in some of the more egregious markups on EV. Yet, if I look at the broader lineup, I see that per J.D.\n",
"\n",
"Power, your revenue per unit is up about $3,800, which clips to your $7.6 billion pricing you cited. Yet the transaction prices are up 5,600, meaning you're leaving about $1,850 of profit in the dealers' hands, which would be about another $3.6 billion of profit. So just wondering kind of as you kind of go forward, as the dealers, especially move to this simplified inventory model you're looking at, how you're thinking about the balance between your invoice, your revenue per vehicle and the actual transaction prices at the dealer level?\n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. I would say the answer to your question for ICE and BEV would be slightly different. We have about 10% of our dealers last year in the supply constrained environment that we're charging above MSRP to our best of our knowledge. We have very good knowledge of who they are.\n",
"\n",
"And their future allocation of product will be directly impacted because of that policy. And we've seen really quick action by our team. On the BEV side, this is quite an important topic because the margins that we want to build to in BEV are gonna be heavily dependent on a different go-to-market and customer experience. I won't go into any more than that, but this is a quite important lesson for us of the franchise system and the way we will manage going forward.\n",
"\n",
"But I'm very optimistic now that our team has the intelligence in the market that we put an allocation trigger in for those dealers who choose to price that way. But it's inefficiency, no doubt about it. \n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Our next question is going to come from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs. \n",
"\n",
"Mark Delaney -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yes. Thanks very much for taking the call. So maybe you could help us better understand the linearity of reaching the 600,000 annualized EV capacity target and what kind of visibility you have into securing the necessary supply to do that, both in terms of things like semiconductors, as well as batteries. \n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. So we've been hard at work at this for quite some time, actually. We knew we were oversubscribed pretty early in the process, and the team has been at it. We have been working.\n",
"\n",
"Really, the primary lift for us is battery availability. So we've actually been securing extra batteries for quite some time now. We have some manning options for Mach-E. So we will move close to 100,000 units this year on Mach-E.\n",
"\n",
"That will be our big move this year. Next year, our big move will be Lightning going to 150,000 units. I won't get into battery chemistries and all the details, but I'm really excited about the progress we've made so far in securing batteries. On the F-150 Lightning, we actually had a physical capacity constraint of the facility.\n",
"\n",
"And so, we took the decision already to again redesign the facility so that we can accommodate the 150,000 units. We have great capacity on F-150 for the nonelectric components. So this is just a matter of the Mach-E getting the labor in place and getting the batteries and the F-150 getting the batteries out of Georgia and redesigning the facility so we can get the final assembly done. As far as chips are concerned, these battery electric vehicles and the supply chain are a strategic advantage for our company.\n",
"\n",
"So we will protect in the constraint where we will protect our battery electric supply production. \n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets. \n",
"\n",
"Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Jim, it's really refreshing to hear you talk about the two different businesses and how you're managing them and running them and planning for them separately. I guess, so to the -- and it's also good to hear you think you would have more to wring out of the ICE business. But I guess, the question is, as CEO of Ford, which is managing those two businesses, like, to the extent you are able to wring more out of ICE, does that give you leeway to accelerate or increase your investment in the EV business? Like how do you think about combining the two businesses back together in terms of the investment spend? \n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Absolutely. Absolutely. The profitability of ICE is very important because it gives us optionality, not only of scaling BEV, but also vertically integrating BEV, which is increasingly becoming important for a profit lever. So we definitely want to push our ICE business as fast as far as we can.\n",
"\n",
"We're going into this transition with the freshest ICE lineup I can think of any of our competitors, not just in the U.S. globally. But we think there's, as John said, a ton of other levers that we can pull to improve the margins of our ICE business. We see our ICE business increasingly in kind of specialty groupings of passion brands like Bronco and Mustang.\n",
"\n",
"And our pickup truck customers retail side using those for recreation and for everything they use them for. And so, look at the success of Maverick we've had, for example. So we're really excited about this opportunity for BEV. And you bet you, it gives us all sorts of optionality as a company to really continue to invest in high growth business, but also focus -- allow us to focus our cash and our investment in building the margin for the high growth business through things like vertical integration and new customer experiences, accelerating our physical experiences to the dealers on both businesses. \n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Our next question is going to come from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.\n",
"\n",
"Itay Michaeli -- Citi -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Great. Thanks. Good evening, everybody. I was hoping to go back and get an update on Mach-E profitability.\n",
"\n",
"I think, a couple of quarters ago, you mentioned you were already positive EBIT. It seems like pricing has been really strong in the last few quarters. You talked about taking out maybe $1,000 of cost going forward. And of course, you're cutting up volume.\n",
"\n",
"I was hoping maybe you could give an update on kind of where you see Mach-E profitability this year versus your original expectation that maybe even relative to ICE vehicles, perhaps like the Edge. \n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, thanks. It's John here. So when we look at our Mach-E profitability, as we said, we are profitable from a Mach-E standpoint. We're seeing great demand.\n",
"\n",
"We're seeing strong mix. So we've seen the profits improve. Importantly, what else we're seeing is opportunities to continue to reduce the cost and reduce the complexity. So we're very focused on improving those margins.\n",
"\n",
"But overall, as we said in the past, our fab margins are not yet quite where we like them to be, especially relative to our more profitable ICE vehicles. And so, we have to continue to do work there, primarily around scaling, reducing the complexity as we move forward. So we're encouraged by what we're seeing on Mach-E so far, especially with the strong demand and the mix, but there's other work that we need to do as well to continue to further improve those margins. And our expectation is that we're fully competitive on our BEV margins as we move forward, and that's what we need to work toward.\n",
"\n",
"Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Just to complement John's input. I'm struck throughout my career, I'm struck at how different the rhythm of this digital BEV businesses versus ICE. We all grew up in a business where you kind of launched the vehicle and then you work on a minor change or a next model. I certainly grew up in that model.\n",
"\n",
"And what we're finding with ICE, thank goodness, we're scaling now because what we're finding in Mach-E is that actually, most of the exciting work starts after Job 1. That's when the OTAs really make a customer impact. But on the cost side and the profit side, I guess, we have learned so much about the lack of integration in our engineering operations as we compared our engineering on Mach-E to others that are best-in-class. And we are finding lots of profit opportunities as we get after that integration between engineering, supply chain and manufacturing, even within engineering.\n",
"\n",
"If I showed you our cooling system for Mach-E, it has four motors, probably needs to be two. It has 60 or 70 hoses, probably needs to be one-third of that. And those are the opportunities we're going after. And we are not going to wait for next year.\n",
"\n",
"We're not going to wait for a minor change. We are going to reengineer that vehicle now and then use that expertise for Lightning, E-Transit and, of course, our all electric platforms. And I just, I'm really excited about this opportunity. Being in the industry as long as I have, I haven't felt this chance to take out so much cost after Job 1, both from the customers' use of the vehicle off the data, as well as actually all these integration opportunities.\n",
"\n",
"And the other thing is the vehicles are much more simple than we thought. The F-150 has one cab, one box. And we -- for the same kind of ICE offering, it's like 40 configurations. So they're much simpler.\n",
"\n",
"And I'm really excited about -- I guess, what I'm saying is we're at the very beginning of this journey. And it's already very exciting on the profit improvement, as John said. And I haven't seen this kind of opportunity in the past in my career.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Our next question is going to come from the line of Anindya Das with Nomura. Your line is open. OK.\n",
"\n",
"Our next question will come from the line of Jeoffrey Lambujon with Tudor Pickering.\n",
"\n",
"Jeoffrey Lambujon -- Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Company -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in. I just wanted to go back to the regional discussion as we think about the thoughts you shared on margins in North America that are embedded in the upper end of the full year '22 EBIT guide. I wonder if you could just give us a sense for how you're thinking about the trajectory of margin improvement in Europe and IMG specifically.\n",
"\n",
"Just thinking about the semiconductor shortfall evolving over time, the focus on Ford Pro and new product launches potentially helping to accelerate some margin recovery in Europe and then the continued focus on Ranger and new products in IMG. \n",
"\n",
"John Lawler -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"In Europe, we expect profit improvement. We expect them to be meaningfully profitable in this year in 2022. And we're still committed, and Europe is on track to deliver the 6% EBIT margin by 2023. They're continuing to move forward.\n",
"\n",
"They're seeing favorable pricing environment continue. They're accelerating into the BEV. The Mach-E is a very strong product for them. And again, commercial vehicles, it's a strength of ours, and we continue to see that grow next year and be a pillar for Europe, a strength for Europe.\n",
"\n",
"With IMG, as you go into 2022, International Markets Group, we expect them to be down year over year, but profitable. And that's gonna be driven by two key things: the India transition and what we see there, as well as the fact that our Ranger volumes are gonna be down year over year as we launch the new Ranger. And so, it's a transition year for us in the International Markets Group. So they'll be down year over year but profitable.\n",
"\n",
"And then, from there with the new Ranger, we're really excited about that product and what we can leverage with that product as we move forward in our International Markets Group.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"[Operator signoff]\n",
"\"\"\""
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"nio_text=\"\"\"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for NIO Incorporated third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] I will now turn the call over to your host, Ms. Eve Tang from Capital Markets and Investor Relations.\n",
"\n",
"Please go ahead, Eve.\n",
"\n",
"Eve Tang -- Investor Relations\n",
"\n",
"Good morning and good evening, everyone. Welcome to NIO's third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. The company's financial and operating results were published in the press release earlier today and are posted at the company's IR website. On today's call, we have Mr.\n",
"\n",
"William Li, founder, chairman of the board, and chief executive officer; Mr. Steven Feng, chief financial officer; and Mr. Stanley Qu, senior vice president of finance. Before we continue, please be kindly reminded that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S.\n",
"\n",
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"\n",
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"\n",
"*Stock Advisor returns as of January 10, 2022\n",
"\n",
"Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, the company's actual results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding risks and uncertainties is included in recent filings of the company with the U.S.\n",
"\n",
"Securities and Exchange Commission. The company does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required under applicable law. Please also note that NIO's earnings press release and this conference call include discussions of unaudited GAAP financial information, as well as unaudited non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to NIO's press release, which contains a reconciliation of the unaudited non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures.\n",
"\n",
"Please refer to NIO's press release, which contains a reconciliation of the unaudited non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures. With that I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. William Li. William, please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining NIO's third quarter 2021 earnings call. [Foreign language] In the third quarter of 2021, we delivered 24,439 ES8, ES6, and EC6, a new quarterly record representing a solid growth of 100.2% year over year. [Foreign language] Based on overall production planning from September 28 to October 15 to prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introduction, including ET7, we implemented upgrade and the restructuring of manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO advanced manufacturing center.\n",
"\n",
"Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October. The plant has resumed to normal production since late October. [Foreign language] According to the data published by China Passenger Car Association, the penetration rate of battery electric vehicles among passenger vehicles reached 17.5% in September. As the automotive industry is accelerating its transformation toward smartization and electrification, more and more users are now choosing smart EVs over ICEs.\n",
"\n",
"The order momentum continues to be strong, and our new orders have reached a new all-time high in October. Currently, our delivery volume is mainly constrained by supply chain volatilities. We expected the total delivery in the fourth quarter of 2021 to be between 23,500 to 25,500 vehicles. [Foreign language] In the third quarter, the vehicle gross margin stood at 18%, while the overall gross margin reached 20.3%, benefited from the sales of regulatory credits.\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Next, I would like to share with you some recent operational highlights of the company. [Foreign language] In September, the first of batch of ET7 tooling trial build wrote off the production line representing that the tryouts and the commissioning of the overall manufacturing process have been completed. The teams are making final preparations for the mass production of ET7. During this appropriation process, we have also made various product optimizations on ET7.\n",
"\n",
"For example, the drag coefficient of ET7 was improved from 0.23 to 0.208. We are very confident about the final product competitiveness and the market performance of the ET7. [Foreign language] The software and hardware development of NAD are also pressing ahead on schedule. The development of the other two new products on NIO technology platform 2.0 are also moving forward smoothly and the delivery to users is expected to start in the second half of next year.\n",
"\n",
"We will share more product details at NIO Day 2021. [Foreign language] In September, we launched the 75-kWh standard range battery pack, with LFP/NCM hybrid cells, which has further enhanced the competitiveness of NIO's battery systems and powered by the industry-first LFP/NCM cell layout and advanced software and hardware systems of a thermal management and SoC estimation. NIO's battery system team worked closely with our partner in overcoming the disadvantages of the LFP cells in aspect of low temperature performance and SoC estimation. On top of that, the 75-kWh hybrid battery pack has also achieved higher energy density and lower -- longer drive range and lower cost compared with the 70-kWh NCM battery pack.\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] In terms of production capacity, besides the upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines in JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center, the second manufacturing site at NeoPark in Hefei is also under construction. After the kickoff on April 29, we completed the main structure construction on August 26, and will start the equipment installation at end of this month. In the third quarter of 2022, we will begin production officially. [Foreign language] On the supply side, due to global COVID-19 pandemic, extreme weather events, and other factors, the overall supply chain remained challenging.\n",
"\n",
"Our supply chain team, R&D team, and the partners have adopted a series of measures to support the record-high quarterly delivery in the third quarter and will continue to secure the supply for the delivery in the fourth quarter and upcoming new product production. [Foreign language] With regards to the sales and service network, we now have 32 NIO Houses and 285 NIO Spaces in 132 cities in China. We'll continue to expand and optimize other NIO House and the NIO Space coverage to effectively penetrate into more Tier 2 and the Tier 3 cities. As of now, we have 43 new service centers and 181 authorized service centers in 141 cities.\n",
"\n",
"We will build more service centers to ensure high-quality services to the rapidly growing user base. [Foreign language] Up until now, we have deployed 608 battery swap stations in 153 cities in China and completed over 4.74 million swaps. In addition, we have built over 460 power charger stations and 3,155 destination chargers across China. [Foreign language] As we speed up the deployment of the battery -- of the swapping and the charging infrastructure, the superior experience and the value brought forward by battery-swapping technology and Battery as a Service has made us the go-to choice for more and more users.\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Regarding the global market, we opened our NIO House in Norway on September 30, which has attracted wide attention from both the public and media. On the same day, we started to deliver ES8 and provided services to our users in Norway. Besides achieving Euro NCAP 5-star safety rating, the ES8 has also received rave reviews on its performance and the product experience from the local users and the media. The order intake has exceeded our expectations.\n",
"\n",
"More importantly, among all the orders, 92% of the users have chosen us. NIO's products, services, and innovative business model, not only have been well-received in China but also present unique value and strength in the global market. In 2022, we will further step up our efforts in entering more global market. [Foreign language] Users have always been the foundation of NIO.\n",
"\n",
"A diversified user community brings a greater vitality to NIO and drives NIO to become better. In October, NIO and the NIO User Trust joined hands with Sanjiangyuan Ecological Protection Foundation to build a growing ecosystem in the Sanjiangyuan National Park. With much anticipation, we have announced that NIO Day 2021 will be held in Suzhou on December 18 this year. NIO user advisors and NIO Day organizing committee are working closely on the final preparation.\n",
"\n",
"Please stay tuned for the coming NIO Day, organized together by NIO and our users. [Foreign language] In 2021, NIO has doubled down on investments in product development, capacity expansion, charging, and swapping network, as well as sales and service network. In 2022, we will continue to make a decisive investment to further enhance our long-term competitiveness and provide better products and services to users. [Foreign language] As always, thank you for your support.\n",
"\n",
"With that, I will now turn the call over to Steven to provide the financial details for the quarter. Steven, please go ahead.\n",
"\n",
"Steven Feng -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, William. I will now go over our key financial results. For the third quarter of 2021, and to be mindful of the length of this call, I encourage listeners to refer to our earnings press release, which is posted online for additional details. Our total revenues in the third quarter were RMB 9.81 billion or $1.52 billion, representing an increase of 116.6% year over year and an increase of 16.1% quarter over quarter.\n",
"\n",
"Our total revenues are made of two parts; vehicle sales and other sales. Vehicle sales in the third quarter was RMB 8.64 billion or $1.34 billion, accounting for 88% of total revenues in this quarter. It represented an increase of 102.4% year over year, an increase of 9.2% quarter over quarter. The increase in vehicle sales year over year and quarter over quarter was mainly attributed to the increase of vehicle delivered volume.\n",
"\n",
"Other sales this third quarter were RMB 1.1 billion or $181.4 million, representing an increase of 350.8% year over year, an increase of 117.9% quarter over quarter. The increase in other sales year over year and quarter over quarter was mainly due to the sales of automotive regulatory credits and the batteries upgrade service, as well as other revenues, which increased in line with incremental vehicle sales in the third quarter of 2021. Cost of sales in the third quarter was RMB 10.81 billion or $1.21 billion, representing an increase of 98.3% year over year and an increase of 13.6% quarter-over-quarter. The increase in cost of sales was in line with revenue growth, which was mainly driven by the increase of vehicle delivery volume in the third quarter of 2021.\n",
"\n",
"Gross profit in the third quarter was RMB 1.99 billion or $0.931 -- $0.31 billion, representing an increase of 240.3% year over year and increase of 26.6% quarter over quarter. Gross margin in the third quarter was 20.3% compared with 12.9% in the same quarter of 2020 and 18.6% in the second quarter of 2021. The increase in gross margin year over year was mainly driven by the increase of vehicle margin and sales of automotive regulatory credits. The increase of gross margin quarter over quarter was many due to the sales of automotive regulatory credits.\n",
"\n",
"More specifically, vehicle margin in the third quarter was 18% compared with 14.5% in the same quarter of 2020 and 20.3% in the second quarter of 2021. The increase of vehicle margin year over year was meaning driven by the higher average selling price, as well as have lower material cost. The decrease of vehicle margin quarter over quarter was mainly due to the increased financing at subsidized rates for vehicle purchases, which resulted in a deduction of vehicle revenue and increase in tooling depreciation cost. R&D expenses in third quarter were RMB 1.19 billion or $185.2 million, representing an increase of 101.9% year over year and increase of 35% quarter over quarter.\n",
"\n",
"The increase of R&D expenses year over year and quarter over quarter was mainly attributed to increased personnel costs in research and development functions, as well as incremental design and development costs for new products and technologies. SG&A expenses in the third quarter were RMB 1.82 billion or $0.28 billion, representing an increase of 94.1% year over year and increase of 21.8% quarter over quarter. The increase in SG&A expenses year over year and quarter over quarter was primarily due to the increase of personnel costs in sales and service functions and costs related to sales and service network expansion. Loss from operation in third quarter was RMB 0.99 billion or $153.9 million, representing an increase of 4.9% year over year and increase of 29.9% quarter over quarter.\n",
"\n",
"Share-based compensation expenses in the third quarter were RMB 255.6 million or $41.2 million, representing an increase of 439.8% year over year and increase of 5.6% quarter over quarter. The increase in share-based compensation expenses year over year was primarily attributed to additional options and restricted shares granted. Net loss in the third quarter was RMB 835.3 million or $129.6 million, representing a decrease of 20.2% year over year and increase of 42.3% quarter over quarter. Net loss attributable to NIO's ordinary shareholders in the third quarter was RMB 2.86 billion or $443.7 million, representing an increase of 140.7% year over year and increase of 333.6% quarter over quarter.\n",
"\n",
"In the third quarter of 2021, NIO repurchased 1.418% equity interest in NIO China from a minority strategic investor for a total consideration of RMB 2.5 billion and recorded amount of RMB 2.02 billion in accretion on redeemable non controlling interests to redemption value. Basic and diluted net loss per ADS in third quarter were both RMB 1.82 or $0.28 per ADS. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and accretion on redeemable non controlling interest to redemption value, non-GAAP adjusted basic and diluted net loss per ADS were both RMB 0.36 or $0.06 per ADS. Our balance of cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment was RMB 47 billion, or $10.3 billion as of September 30, 2021.\n",
"\n",
"And now for our business outlook. As William mentioned, for the fourth quarter of 2021, the company expects deliveries to be between 23,500 and 25,500 vehicles, representing an increase of approximately 35.4% to 46.9% from the same quarter of 2020 and a decrease of approximately 3.8% to increase of approximately 4.3% from the third quarter of 2021. The company also expects the total revenues on the fourth quarter of 2021 to be between RMB 9.38 billion and RMB 10.11 billion, representing an increase of approximately 41.2% to 52.2% from the same quarter of 2020 and a decrease of approximately 4.4% to increase of approximately 3.1% from the third quarter of 2021. This business outlook reflects the company's current and the preliminary view on the business situation and the market condition, which is subject to change.\n",
"\n",
"Now, this concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to the operator to facilitate our Q&A session.\n",
"\n",
"Questions & Answers:\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"[Operator instructions] Your first question comes from Tim Hsiao of Morgan Stanley. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Tim Hsiao -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, Will, and Steven, and team. Thanks for taking my question. It's great to see NIO manage to navigate through the component crunch and production hiccup in the first half. Just two quick questions from my side.\n",
"\n",
"The first one, we've seen restructuring and upgrade of the production lines costs around two rounds of disruption to your delivery and production this year. Just wanted to confirm that if we completed all the necessary restructuring for the three new models next year. Or should we expect any similar disruption some time next year? My second question is about the details of the other sales. Could you share more information about NIO's third quarter other sales? Because it has been surging quite a lot.\n",
"\n",
"I think a more significant revenue increase was attributable to the sales of EV credits and the battery upgrade services. Can we have the further breakdowns regarding the contribution from both items? And what could be the scale, as well as the contribution into fourth quarter? Because if you look at the current fourth quarter revenue guidance, it seems that it just mainly reflected the contribution from the vehicle sales. So, should we expect a contribution from other sales to rise further? Those are my two questions. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Tim, thank you for your question. I will answer the first one, and Stanley is going to answer the second one. In the previous remarks, we have also talked about the progress of our capacity expansion for the two plants. For the first plant, just like you mentioned, starting from the end of September to the middle of October, we have some restructuring and upgrades of the manufacturing lines to further expand the production capacity and prepare for the new product introduction.\n",
"\n",
"Following this upgrade, we probably will do some minor restructurings and modifications of the production lines. But we believe the following restructuring is not going to have a very significant impact on the normal production of the vehicles. Secondly, regarding the new products, some of the new products will be manufactured in the second plant. Then this means that for the second plant, we will need some time to ramp-up the production for the new products, but this is not going to affect the manufacturing of the existing products.\n",
"\n",
"Stanley Qu -- Senior Vice President of Finance\n",
"\n",
"Hi Tim. Regarding the second question, among the other revenue, RMB 517 million was contributed by the EV credit sales. And after deduction of this EV credit sales, our total gross margin for other revenue decreased from minus 5.6% to 12.6%, that's because the -- driven by the expansion of our sales and service network in Q3. And as mentioned by William in his explanation, the construction of our sales and service network infrastructure moved earlier and faster than our sales increase, especially in this year.\n",
"\n",
"So, we are expecting the total revenue of other service will increase, but the gross profit margin for this part will decrease a little bit in Q4. Yeah. OK.\n",
"\n",
"Tim Hsiao -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"OK, great. Could you -- sorry, just a quick follow-up some -- could you highlight some potential contribution from the sales of credit into fourth quarter?\n",
"\n",
"Stanley Qu -- Senior Vice President of Finance\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. Almost -- majority of the EV credit sales was realized in Q3. So, in Q4, we don't expect significant revenue from this part. Yeah.\n",
"\n",
"Tim Hsiao -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Got it. Great. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Yes, just like as Stanley explained, this year is a little bit different from last year. We recognized the sales of the regulatory credits much earlier compared with last year.\n",
"\n",
"Tim Hsiao -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Will.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Your next question comes from Nick Lai of J.P. Morgan. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Nick Lai -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you for taking my question. It's Nick from J.P. Morgan. Good morning, William and Steven.\n",
"\n",
"My two simple question is, number one, related to margin, and the second question is related to ET7, the new exciting model. First of all, on the margin front, yeah, the vehicle margin third quarter was 18%, slightly down from 20% in 2Q. Yeah, I wonder how should we think about the margin into 4Q or first half next year, taking into account of two factors? The first factor is the pricing dynamic or competition from the peers. And the second is improved raw material prices, especially on the battery front.\n",
"\n",
"That's the first question. And I mean, I think you answered part of my question, yeah, earlier on credit sales. So, second question on ET7. It's certainly a very exciting product.\n",
"\n",
"When should we expect the car to hit a showroom in the near term? And medium to longer term, after the production is ramped up, how should we think about the volume and the possibility of ET7 relative to our current high-end product, ES8? ES8's current monthly run rate sales volume is monthly about 1,500. So, how should we think about the profit margin and the volume for ET7? Just two simple questions. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Stanley Qu -- Senior Vice President of Finance\n",
"\n",
"Hi, Nick. This is Stanley. About your first question regarding the gross profit margin. And our 75-kWh battery start to -- will start to be delivered from November.\n",
"\n",
"And the gross profit margin will be improved a little bit compared with 70-kWh battery. But prices of our key materials like aluminum, copper, and also chips increase -- are increasing, and there will be pressures for our cost controlling. But we are confident to continuously improve our gross profit margin, which combines efforts, either from the product design or supply chain optimization. So, for Q4, we are expecting the gross profit margin will keep stable.\n",
"\n",
"And for next year, our target is to achieve 20% gross profit margin for vehicles, and along with our launch of NT2.0 products. From a long-run perspective, we try to achieve higher profit margin with about 25%, yeah, of vehicles. OK.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Yeah. As Stanley mentioned, basically, for the NT2.0 product, we expect that with the economy of scales and the volume ramp-up, as well as the optimizations in every aspect. We should be able to average 25% vehicle gross margin in the long run. At the beginning, of course, we will need some time to ramp up the production of the new products based on the NIO Technology Platform 2.0.\n",
"\n",
"According to our preliminary estimation internally, we believe the vehicle gross margin of the new product should be quite good. And for the ET7 delivery, we are going to start the delivery of ET7 in the first quarter of next year. So, it means that we will have the cars in our NIO Houses and NIO spaces around the spring festival's time. Then afterwards, we will start deliveries to the users.\n",
"\n",
"Because we have used many advanced chips and sensors on the ET7, so this has put a lot of pressure on the mass production of ET7. But we believe everything is on schedule. [Foreign language] Thank you, Nick.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Your next question comes from Mr. Ming-Hsun Lee of Bank of America Securities. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Ming Lee -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. Good morning. William, Steven, and Stanley. So, my question is regarding your supply chain.\n",
"\n",
"So, right now, actually, we are hearing some of the auto company expect the chip shortage situation will not be fully resolved by the mid of next year. So, right now, I want to hear your latest view regarding your chip supply situation and also the large-sized battery pack supply situation. And also, right now, for your consumers, if they place orders to you, I think the waiting time is more than two months already. So, how will you retain long term those consumers? And also, next year, we expect the EV purchase subsidy to be cut further.\n",
"\n",
"So, in this case, if the consumer priced older before year-end, but they need to -- we need to deliver a car after, I think, next year, so will we continue to give then a similar subsidy amount so we absorb the subsidy cut? That is my question. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Thank you, Ming, for the question. Regarding the chip shortage situation, we believe right now is much better than the situation in Q3. But the challenge is still quite big because it's very difficult to forecast what is going to happen for the chip supply. I think everyone knows about the STMicro's situation in Malaysia, and the situation basically is improving right now.\n",
"\n",
"The good thing is our teams have learned to adapt to the situation and face the challenges head on, and we have always been able to find a solution to all those challenges. On the other hand, our volume compared to the material OEMs is still relatively small. So, the challenge is -- for us is smaller compared to the mature OEMs. [Foreign language] I would like to specifically mention that because the many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house.\n",
"\n",
"So, if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of the vehicles and the chips. So, because of this capabilities, we have already resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles. For the 75-kWh battery pack, we announced this in September, but we will gradually start the delivery of the 75-kWh battery pack in late November. We also need some time to ramp up the production of the NIO battery pack, and we believe the production is going to reach a reasonable level at the first quarter of next year.\n",
"\n",
"The battery is actually a very big constraint for us. CATL is our partner on the battery side. They have invested a lot to help us and to support our vehicle production, but we believe the battery is still the main constraint on the overall production and supply capacity. [Foreign language] Yes, as I mentioned, if you placed the order right now, you won't need to wait for some time to get the cars delivered.\n",
"\n",
"But recently, we have also announced some policies regarding the subsidy reduction for the next year to keep our customers and also keep our customers during this long waiting time. For example, we will provide the NIO credit or NIO points to the users during this waiting time, and these kind of incentives have helped us in the past. So, for example, starting from 2018, we have already got those policies in place, and we believe that this is not going to affect the users regarding the waiting time. [Foreign language] Regarding the EV subsidy, we believe this is not going to have a significant impact on us because our average selling pricing is actually quite high regarding our product.\n",
"\n",
"So, even considering the subsidy is not going to be a very big amount comparing to the selling price of the vehicles. [Foreign language] Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Ming Lee -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language]\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Your next question comes from Bin Wang of Credit Suisse. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Bin Wang -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you for taking my question. I got two ones. On the first one about application IPO, because one of the key constraints that NIO seems to be the only one still just in the U.S. And also, some of the media report that it's because of the NIO User Trust.\n",
"\n",
"Can you explain a little bit why NIO User Trust? Could be one of the reason when you come back to IPO. That is the first question. And second thing is about gross margin. Actually, you mentioned one of the reason is because auto finance due to the margin decline.\n",
"\n",
"However, if you have seen, the demand has been very good and short on supply. I'm just curious why we in a very tight supply, we still increase the auto finance due to the falling margin. Theoretically, it should reduce the auto finance line. And also, I told -- some of my friends told me that you actually may remove or reduce the auto finance in the number four quarter.\n",
"\n",
"Can I confirm if this is the case? If it's the case, can I assume the gross margin we have will increase in the number four quarter compared to number three? Because you don't provide auto finance anymore. And the average ASP also will increase because auto finance seems to be one of the reason for ASP decline in the number three quarter compared to second quarter. Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Steven Feng -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Bin, this is Steven. Thank you for your question. I would like, with regard to your first question, to comment. First, we're open minded.\n",
"\n",
"We closely monitor the market, and we make the right choice in the best interest of our shareholders. Second, we actually explore the possibilities to get listed in Hong Kong market, and we are indeed doing what business need to evaluate and communicate.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Thank you, Bin, for your question. Yeah, so we will make the decisions to best serve the interest of our investors, and we'll be open-minded to different choices. Regarding the impact of the auto financing on the margin, if you get to know about our business operations, you will know that we will need to take some measures, such as balance of the supply and the product configurations, as well as the user demands. For example, with the 75-kWh battery pack, we announced this battery pack in September.\n",
"\n",
"Many users would like it to wait for this 75-kWh battery pack, but just like I mentioned, we will start the delivery of this battery pack in late November. And even at that time, we will still need some time to ramp up the production of the battery pack to a reasonable level. That is why we will need to take some measures to balance this demand among the users and the product configuration, as well as the battery supply. And we encourage the users to choose the 100-kWh battery pack in that case.\n",
"\n",
"We believe the right approach for this, not to reduce the price of our product or offer discount to our users on the vehicle price. So, that is why we would like to take those measures to balance the demand and supply, but this is not going to be the long-term measures we take. This is only a short-term measure for us to balance the supply and the demand situation. Once the supply gets to a reasonable level in the long run, then we believe the overall gross margin and the vehicle gross margin is going to improve.\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language]\n",
"\n",
"Bin Wang -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Your next question comes from Edison Yu of Deutsche Bank. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Edison Yu -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking our questions. First question is on the ET7 ADAS capabilities. Could you maybe discuss what kind of features we could expect at launch? And if you can't reveal that right now, would you expect to do any sort of demonstrations on the road in the coming months, similar to what, you know, other competitors have done? And then second question, more longer term, you know, last year at NIO Day, you kind of teased a solid-state battery or a hybrid solid-state battery coming to the vehicles, I believe, at the end of next year.\n",
"\n",
"Is there any update on this? Is this still on track? Any details you could provide there, that'd be great. Thank you\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Actually, I believe a lot of people are working on the demos, so we don't actually want the teams to focus their energy on the demo. We would like to have the teams to be fully dedicated to the mass production of the technology and -- of our new product like ET7. Regarding the ET7 NAD, we will need some time to gradually release those advanced features to the users, and we believe for all those features, of course, it will be based on our in-house full stack technology. Previously, I have also explained that the NAD features will be released to the users based on the subscription like the ADAS service.\n",
"\n",
"So, this innovative business model has offered us some flexibilities in terms of how should we provide and when should we provide all those services and the features to the users. We will need to strike a balance between different factors, including the regulations, safety, and reliability. Then after we strike the perfect balance or find a sweet spot, then we can start to provide those services to the users. I believe, right now, there are hundreds of companies working on those kinds of demos, so we don't want to waste our energy on that.\n",
"\n",
"Regarding the 150-kWh battery pack, we are now working together with the partners, and everything is basically on track. Previously, we mentioned that we will start the delivery of this battery pack in the fourth quarter of next year, and we believe we should be able to meet this schedule.\n",
"\n",
"Edison Yu -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Edison.\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Your next question comes from Jeff Chung of Citi. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Jeff Chung -- Citi -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Hey. Hi, William, Steven. I got three questions. Number one, what kind of annualized total volume production from the NT2.0 platform should lead to the 25% GP margin according to your guidance? Secondly, second question is, apart from the three brand new products launching in 2022, how likely are we going to launch a facelift version of the existing product, the ES8, ES6, and EC6? So, how likely we're going to launch six new products next year, instead of three brand new products? And finally, is the EV credit -- so could you guide us how many points we sold in the third quarter, and from which we can estimate the ASP and the credit compared with our previous quarters? Thank you, William.\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Steven.\n",
"\n",
"Steven Feng -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Jeff, with regard to your first question about GP margin, our 25% GP margin for NP2.0 platform is based on the annual production volume of 300,000 units per year.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Just like Steven mentioned that our plan is, if we can achieve annual production of 300,000 units, we should be able to reach 25% vehicle gross margin on the NIO Technology Platform 2.0. We are very confident to achieve this target. For the existing product, of course, we have a plan to upgrade over product to the NIO Technology Platform 2.0, and we believe that this is very important for the company and we will need to focus -- manage the schedule for the product upgrades in specific details. Internally, we have already kicked off the development to work on this regard, and we have started, how should we upgrade the different products to the NIO Technology Platform 2.0.\n",
"\n",
"Steven Feng -- Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. About the EV credits, totally around 200,000 points were sold in Q3. And what I want to remind is the price volatility for EV credit is also high, along with the China's EV penetration increase recently. So, I hope this can help you to build the expectation for our futures in NIO credit revenue.\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, OK.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] This year, basically, we believe the number of the credits we receive will increase. But this year, the penetration rate of the EV has increased very rapidly. This probably is going to change the situation for next year, regarding the regulatory credit sales. According to my personal estimation, I think considering all those factors, the price of an EV credit is going to be different or probably going to be lower compared with this year's price.\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language]\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Your next question comes from Paul Gong of UBS. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Paul Gong -- UBS -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yeah, hi. Thanks guys. I have two questions. The first one is regarding the Norway operation.\n",
"\n",
"And obviously, it has been more than one month, and you just briefly mentioned 92% of the users chose us, and the order has been exceeding your expectation. Can you give us more color, like how the achievement, if it was there, and what challenges were there? Obviously, it's a rich country, but the labor cost might also be much higher than in China, what can you share with us? And after Norway, what is your next destination for the overseas operation? The second question is regarding your expense spending. It seems that this quarter, the increase in SG&A has been a bit faster than expected, while the R&D increase has been a little bit slower than expected. What is the key rationale behind and key reasons behind? Again, you have so many orders and deliveries because of the supply chain disruption, where you can see the slowdown a little bit of the SG&A, and instead to put more budget into the R&D in the following one or two quarters.\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language]\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Thank you for your question. Regarding our operations in Norway, we believe the basic operations have a mix of expectations in all aspects. After the NIO House opened on September 30, I would like to share with you some data. After the test drive, one-fourth of the users have placed orders for our products.\n",
"\n",
"We believe this is very impressive and this shows that basically, the efficiency is much higher compared with that of here in China. This is on the delivery side. On the services side, so we do need a lot of work to do. Our swap stations in Norway have just started the operation because previously, we need to send people over to work on the installation and on the commissioning of the swap stations.\n",
"\n",
"And then, for the after-sales, we also encountered some challenges brought forward by the COVID situation. But the order momentum is quite strong. We have done some trial delivery at the end of September and in October, and we believe the delivery in November is going to improve significantly. There is a lot of order backlog, but we would like to control our pace of delivery a little bit at the beginning, because internally, we set the target of ourselves, especially on the user satisfaction rate.\n",
"\n",
"We have a kind of VAU, it's vision action upgrade, based on the company. And then, basically, we use the VAU to set the target for ourselves. My personal VAU is to make sure we can achieve high user satisfaction rate. Right now, according to the feedback we got from the ground in Norway, we understand the word-of-mouth reputation has been quite good.\n",
"\n",
"And one of my friend actually sent a video to me to show that there are lot of visitors in the NIO House. I'm very happy to see this video and to see so many people in our NIO House in Norway. We will continue to make a decisive investment on the service and on other aspects, and we will do this step by step. Next year, besides Norway, we're going to enter additional five countries in Europe.\n",
"\n",
"And for this product planning of all those European countries. And basically, the ES8 based on the NIO Technology Platform 1.0 will only be sold in Norway. But the other new Norway -- countries we're going to enter, we will only sell the product that based on the NIO Technology Platform 2.0. [Foreign language] I believe for the investment question, this is more about the long-term competitiveness or the long-term strategy for the company.\n",
"\n",
"In China, the competition is becoming more fierce because there have been many new entrants into the smart EV industry. We believe product development, technology development, sales and service, and network infrastructure, including swapping and charging network, are part of the long-term competitiveness of the company. That is why we double down on our investment in all those regard in 2021. In 2022, we will continue to make decisive investments on those aspects.\n",
"\n",
"We believe the infrastructure like the swapping charging network, the sales and service network are also part of the long-term competitiveness of the company. Maybe in the third quarter of this year, the investment on those aspects have ramped up a little bit faster than expected. That is why we can see the SG&A cost increased higher than the previous expectation. But on the R&D side, we have also doubled our R&D personnel this year, and we have worked on -- we have been working on many new products and the new technologies.\n",
"\n",
"But for other new products and the technologies, it will need some time to ramp up the pace. In the fourth quarter, we will be able to see some R&D expenses and the cost increase in this regard. You can imagine, internally, right now, we have multiple new products and new projects working in parallel. Then, probably at the beginning, when we set up those projects, the cost is not going to be that high, and we will need some time to reflect all those R&D investment on our balance sheet or P&L.\n",
"\n",
"At the beginning, it is relatively small, but gradually, a long way to the project, this cost is going to increase. But we believe that the product and technology should be the cornerstone of the company's long-term competitiveness. And that's why we will continue to make a decisive investment on those regards. [Foreign language]\n",
"\n",
"Paul Gong -- UBS -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much. [Foreign language]\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"Your next question comes from Chang Liu of CICC. Please ask a question.\n",
"\n",
"Chang Liu -- CICC -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Thank you for taking my questions. My first question is regarding the capacity expansion. So, could you give us guidance on next year's sales volume, especially for the new three models, and also our current three models? So can our capacity needs meet in next year? And considering the strong EV demand on our new -- more new models in 2023, do we have a plan in constructing more new plants? My second question is regarding the upgrade of smart hardware because we are expecting a really fast upgrade in the smart hardware in next years. So, how do we keep our competitiveness of our next models and to keep our users satisfied? Also, I have a follow-up question for our globalization.\n",
"\n",
"So, in longer term, do we have a guidance for the proportion of overseas sales account for the -- of overall sales? Thank you.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language] Thank you, Liu Chang, for your question. Right now, we have basically two plants. The first plant, like I mentioned that we have upgraded the manufacturing lines to further expand the production capacity. For the new plant, we are going to start the production in the third quarter of next year.\n",
"\n",
"So, for our product and operations, we believe these two new plants -- these two plants should be able to support our demand for the short term. If we combine these two plants together, the maximum production capacity we can support is up to 600,000 annual production capacity based on double shifts. So, we believe this maximum production capacity should be able to satisfy our demands in the short term. [Foreign language] For the NIO Technology Platform 1.0 smart hardware upgrade, we previously communicated with our users that we will study some plants to upgrade the hardwares on the NIO Technology Platform 1.0 based on our design.\n",
"\n",
"On the NIO Technology Platform 2.0, we plan to probably provide it as a services starting from next year, and we will provide some more details and updates on this regard at a more suitable time. Of course, this smart hardware upgrades on the NIO Technology platform 1.0 is not going to be the same as -- the same kind of experience of the NIO Technology Platform 2.0. But we believe the digital carpet of the existing product is going to significantly improve. We have already considered all those flexibilities and the possibilities of the hardware and software upgrades in our product design.\n",
"\n",
"For example, just now, I mentioned about the hardware upgrades, and then for the software aspects, we have been continuously upgrading our software. We launched and released our Aspen 3.0 to our users of the existing products and received great reviews and feedback from all those users. And we will continue to upgrade our software and iterate our software to make sure we can provide much better services and experiences to our users. [Foreign language] Regarding the previous Aspen 3.0, we also believe that this provides a solid foundation for our global market entry.\n",
"\n",
"And if we go back to your question about the global market entry and the target for the global markets, NIO has always aspired to build a global brand. If we look at the global market, we can see that China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market. So, China will still be the most important market for us. But regarding our aspiration for the global markets, I cannot provide A very specific target for the global market at this moment.\n",
"\n",
"But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of all sales of our product.\n",
"\n",
"Chang Liu -- CICC -- Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yeah. Thank you, William.\n",
"\n",
"William Li -- Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer\n",
"\n",
"[Foreign language]\n",
"\n",
"Operator\n",
"\n",
"As there are no further questions now, I'd like to turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.\n",
"\n",
"Eve Tang -- Investor Relations\n",
"\n",
"Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have further questions, please feel free to contact NIO's investor relations team through the contact information provided on our website. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect your line.\n",
"\n",
"Thank you.\n",
"\"\"\""
],
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"toyota_text=\"\"\"\n",
"Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Management on Q2 2022 Results - Earnings Call Transcript\n",
"Nov. 04, 2021 1:01 PM ETToyota Motor Corporation (TM), TOYOF\n",
"Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call November 4, 2021 ET\n",
"\n",
"Company Participants\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon - Chief Financial Officer\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata - Chief Communication Officer\n",
"\n",
"Conference Call Participants\n",
"\n",
"Naotake Katori - Yomiuri Newspapers\n",
"\n",
"Kohei Kondo - Asahi Newspapers\n",
"\n",
"Sean McLain - Wall Street Journal\n",
"\n",
"Maki Shiraki - Reuters\n",
"\n",
"Yukinobu Kigawa - Toyo Keizai\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, everyone, for joining us despite your busy schedules. We would now like to begin Toyota Motor Corporation's FY 2022 Second Quarter Financial Results Press Briefing. Starting by introducing our presenters today, Chief Financial Officer, Kenta Kon; Chief Communication Officer, Jun Nagata.\n",
"\n",
"We would now like to begin by having our CFO, Mr. Kon, explain about the financial results.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I am Kenta Kon. We would like to express our heartfelt appreciation to all of our stakeholders, including customers around the world who chose us, as well as our shareholders, dealers and suppliers who support us. We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience caused to our customers due to the recent production volume reduction. We are working to recover production as soon as possible. Thank you for your understanding.\n",
"\n",
"I would like to provide a summary of the second quarter of this fiscal year. The semiconductor shortage and spread of COVID-19 in some developing countries caused us to reduce our production volume globally. But our suppliers, plants and dealers made great efforts to supply as many cars to our customers as possible. Our results for the first half of the fiscal year reflect our enhanced cost reduction activities and efforts to make more efficient use of fixed costs while enhancing the product appeal by making ever better cars and investing for growth.\n",
"\n",
"We have also benefited from the tightening supply and high demand in the new car market as this has led to higher used car prices and allowed us to decrease the quantum of incentives. We believe these factors have made our results in certain respects to be robust beyond our underlying strength. Even though we have revised our operating income forecast upwards, excluding the impact of the depreciation of the yen, it would be in substance a downward revision due to increases in raw material costs. We will keep improving our operation to standardize what we have learned from COVID-19.\n",
"\n",
"In terms of our return to shareholders, the interim ordinary dividend is JPY 120 per share, an increase of JPY 15 compared to the previous fiscal year. We have also decided to conduct a repurchase of up to JPY 100 billion of our common stock.\n",
"\n",
"Let me discuss our financial results for the first half ended September 2021. Consolidated vehicle sales for the period was at 4,094,000 units, which was 132.7% of consolidated vehicle sales for the first half of the previous fiscal year. Toyota and Lexus brand vehicle sales was at 4,852,000 units, which was 121.0% of such sales for the first half of the previous fiscal year. The ratio of electrified vehicles was 27.7%.\n",
"\n",
"Consolidated financial results for the first half of this fiscal year were sales revenues of JPY 15,481.2 billion, operating income of JPY 1,747.4 billion, income before income taxes of JPY 2,144.0 billion and net income of JPY 1,524.4 billion. I would like to explain the factors which impacted operating income year-on-year.\n",
"\n",
"First, the effects of foreign exchange rates increased operating income by JPY 255 billion. Second, cost reduction efforts decreased operating income by JPY 30 billion due to the impact of soaring material prices. Third, marketing efforts increased operating income by JPY 1,055 billion largely due to the increase in sales volume and increased earnings in the financial services business. Finally, a reduction in expenses increased operating income by JPY 10 billion. As a result, excluding the overall impact of foreign exchange rates, swap valuation gains and losses and other factors, operating income increased by JPY 1,035 billion year-on-year.\n",
"\n",
"Next, I will explain operating income for each region. As shown, operating income increased year-on-year in all regions largely due to the increase in sales volume. As for our China business, the operating income of consolidated subsidiaries and our share of profit of investments accounted for using the equity method increased due to the impact of foreign exchange rates.\n",
"\n",
"Regarding financial services. Operating income excluding swap valuation gains and losses for the fiscal year increased year-on-year mainly due to the increase in the lending balance and margins.\n",
"\n",
"Next, I would like to explain our return to shareholders. Based on the business results for the first half of this fiscal year, we decided to pay an interim dividend of JPY 120 per share, an increase of JPY 15 compared to the previous fiscal year. We intend to continue to maintain improved consolidated dividend payout ratio over the mid to long term as well as pay dividends stably and sustainably to reward our shareholders who hold our shares over the mid to long term. In addition, we will repurchase up to JPY 150 billion of our own shares for the current interim period, taking into consideration factors such as investments in growth areas and dividend levels.\n",
"\n",
"Next, I will explain the forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2022. Consolidated vehicle sales is expected to be 8.55 million units, which is 98.3% of the previous forecast. Regional sales breakdown is as stated in the presentation. As for Toyota and Lexus brand vehicle sales, we anticipate that vehicle sales will be 9.4 million units, which is 97.9% of the previous forecast.\n",
"\n",
"Next, let me explain the forecasts for the full year consolidated financial performance. We have adopted ForEx rate assumptions for October onwards of JPY 110 per dollar and JPY 125 per euro, which makes the full year assumptions of JPY 110 per dollar and JPY 128 per euro. Based on this, our forecasts for full year consolidated financial performance are: sales revenues of JPY 30 trillion, operating income of JPY 2,800 billion, income before income taxes of JPY 3,440 billion and net income of JPY 2,490 billion.\n",
"\n",
"Next, I would like to explain the factors that impact operating income year-on-year compared to the previous forecast. The operating income forecast has been revised upward by JPY 300 billion from the previous forecast, taking into account the increase in operating income due to the revision of FX assumptions, reflecting the weaker yen and the decrease in operating income due to the increase in raw material costs.\n",
"\n",
"The factors that will impact operating income compared to the same period of previous fiscal year are as shown in the presentation. Although we continue to face unpredictable conditions with regard to the stabilization of supply as well as issues such as the sharp rise in raw material costs, we will continue to work towards the future and establish the lessons learned from the COVID-19 crisis.\n",
"\n",
"Thank you for your attention.\n",
"\n",
"Question-and-Answer Session\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"[Operator Instructions] Mr. Katori from Yomiuri Newspapers, please. [Operator Instructions]\n",
"\n",
"Naotake Katori\n",
"\n",
"This is Katori speaking from Yomiuri Newspapers. I have 2 questions. First, for this ended first half performance, I would like to hear your assessment and summary. Especially the operating income, maybe there has been some changes, but I do think that it's a record high from the past history. So for the factors that contributed to that and also for the large vehicle side performing very well, the sales was very well from new car sales, I'd like to hear about the factors that contributed.\n",
"\n",
"And especially, I'd like to ask about the production recovery plan. I think you've made a report about what your plans up to November. But up to December, are you -- I think we hear that you will be operating on the weekend as well, including Saturdays, but still, there is some impact from COVID. So what kind of recovery plan do you have? That's my second question.\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Mr. Katori, for your questions. So your first question was about the assessment of the ended first half of this term about what were the contributing factors.\n",
"\n",
"And your second question was about the production recovery plan after December. That is how I understood your 2 questions. Am I correct?\n",
"\n",
"Naotake Katori\n",
"\n",
"Yes.\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"So both of those questions will be responded from our CFO, Mr. Kon.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much for your question. Regarding the first half second quarter results, the assessments, if we can look at the third page of the presentation material, thank you. This is the summary. And I’d like to make some additional comments on this – in addition to this page.\n",
"\n",
"So as you can see on the very top, globally, production volume has declined globally. That is how we see the first half of this fiscal year. But in this situation, our dealers, our suppliers, our plants, the plants worldwide, so the gemba or the operations side, they have made great efforts to supply as much cars as possible to the customers without stopping the vehicle plant. If a vehicle plant stops, there will be a huge impact to our suppliers and stakeholders. Therefore, the people working at the operations side wanted to avoid that situation and made strong efforts. And that has contributed largely to our results. But on the other hand, we are, in fact, having customers wait for the car delivery. So there are many challenges still that we have to work on.\n",
"\n",
"And also for the sales results, even though there was limitations in production, the sales side did not drop so significantly. Compared year-on-year, actually, there was an increase. And this is because the dealers, they have worked – made efforts to drop their level of inventory, also made efficient sales activities, also been able to work flexibly with the existing inventories. So they have been working hard to capture the sales opportunities, have good communication with the customers to deliver the cars as much as possible. This was also a huge contributor to the results.\n",
"\n",
"And on the other hand, there were some areas that went beyond our underlying strength. And it might be just partially, but the new car sales is tight in supply, and therefore, used car prices have – are now at a high level. And as a result, the financial businesses, the residual value balance has turned positively. And this is mainly contributed by the high used car price market.\n",
"\n",
"And regarding incentives, under the current situation, for all of the OEMs, it’s the same situation, but we have been able to keep the incentives low. So these kinds of environmental aspects have contributed. This will be beyond our underlying strength. However, for the market fluctuation, the higher commodity price market – higher commodity prices is also a large impacting factor. We are not in a situation where we can hand on these price increases to our customers. Therefore, cost reduction, fixed cost reduction, also making efforts to enhance the vehicle value, these were the efforts made to recover the negative impact from the market fluctuation.\n",
"\n",
"For the cost reduction and fixed cost reduction, there has been huge efforts made company-wide, and this effort is continuing. Going through COVID, we have – don’t have a feel at the point of this time that we are returning back to the before COVID times. So that will be a positive feeling that I have.\n",
"\n",
"I’m sorry to be lengthy – giving you a lengthy answer, but one of the reasons why we did not drop – see a big drop in the sales activities is because the product appeal being enhanced as a foundation of our business, I think that is a large contributor, having a stronger product appeal. TNGA was led – or started from the initiation – from the President Toyoda’s statements. And those initiatives were taken, product appeal strength and also to set the products in a group or series and families and to achieve ever better cars. And this kind of activity had contributed in this result, I believe.\n",
"\n",
"And for your second question about the production recovery, after December, we do still see much risks there. However, for the production volume, the 9 million that we have announced today for December and January, February, March, if we operate in a full operation, we still see some risk in order to be able to operate fully. Therefore, it is slightly conservative, this 9 million in volume. But based on our running production situation, including the Saturday operations, since we have customers waiting, as a fact, we will do whatever we can to continue the production.\n",
"\n",
"So this will be my answers. I hope I have answered your question.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Mr. Katori, for your question. We would like to move to the next question. Mr. Kondo from Asahi Newspapers, please. [Operator Instructions]\n",
"\n",
"Kohei Kondo\n",
"\n",
"My name is Kondo from Asahi Newspapers. Can you hear my voice? Can you hear my voice? Okay.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Yes, we can.\n",
"\n",
"Kohei Kondo\n",
"\n",
"So based upon your financial results, I have a question starting with the sales and operating income and net income. I think it is victory, historical high, and you made a revision, upward revision for the full year. Yes, yen depreciation was one factor, but I see wonderful numbers. And still, the society as a whole is suffering from COVID-19. And also the auto industry, especially the small suppliers, have to deal with carbon neutrality and also face the challenge of CASE and other new technologies. In other words, they are still struggling to turn around their profit. And I understand your number is based upon those suppliers' numbers. How do you accept this? And what do you think about returning those profit and also [divisions]?\n",
"\n",
"And also your relationship with suppliers, especially with Nippon Steel, the champion negotiation so-called is the negotiation on the steel price every half a year. And at Nippon Steel, R&D investments and development costs are being the reasons for the negotiation. So what is your measure? And how are you going to deal with this? And what's your thoughts on this? And especially this litigation on this patent and -- you are expected to make a scientific proof on this. And how are you going -- what is your position on this litigation?\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"Mr. Kondo, thank you so much for your question. The first question was about our good performance on this interim financial result. Well, number-wise, and your question was that our numbers were based upon suppliers' numbers and what is our take on this, well, Mr. Kon is going to answer on this.\n",
"\n",
"And with regard to the relation with Nippon Steel, and the first question was on the price negotiation, Nippon Steel is asking for a further price hike and what is our opinion on this. And the second is about this electromagnetic steel, what we think about this. And Nagata, myself, will answer this question later.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Yes. Regarding the first question, I would like to answer, first of all, with regard to relations with suppliers, well, we would like to coexist with our suppliers so that we can reduce cost and enhance the competitiveness together. We would like to enhance competitiveness of suppliers, and we would like to reap the achievements fairly together. And this would also include our customers. We have not changed this philosophy all along.\n",
"\n",
"For example, yes, we do receive comments, like the one we just received, from time to time. And as I've been involved in the conversation and dialogue with suppliers, for example, we made announcements of reducing our production volume a couple of times, and orders in -- from Toyota has a very high certainty. And on top of that, when there is a production volume decrease, we try to let them know as soon as possible also in detail. And especially when there's a decline in the production volume, the parts delivered from suppliers would also decrease. So there is some impact.\n",
"\n",
"But we also get opinions from suppliers that they don't have much loss from this because we try to reduce the cost by optimizing the quality, and also we try to deal with concerns of suppliers. And there are several thousands of proposals from suppliers. When I went to visit one of the supplier the other day, when I heard from them, including many stories they share with us, for example, recently they told us that when Toyota makes some casual comments, for example, these components need to be visible, if we make such a whisper or if we mumble that, then the supplier would use ink that would never disappear to clarify the location of that part, and that could be expensive. So when our engineer goes to the site to see that ink, the engineer would say, \"No, no, you don't have to use this expensive ink, but you can use a marker instead.\" In such ways, we are trying to enhance the competitiveness together. And as a result, suppliers would have less concerns.\n",
"\n",
"Of course, we are still in the middle, so it's never complete. But we think we are trying hard to carry out these kind of activities together, but the fact that we are still receiving such comments from outside like this one, maybe we need to try harder. So if you could deliver such feedback, then we will stop and rethink and try to improve ourselves further. Please continue to give this guidance. This was my answer to the first question.\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"Mr. Kondo, regarding the second question with regards to the relations with Nippon Steel, starting with the price negotiation, as you know and this year, price hike was in the conversation. It is not limited to Nippon Steel, but in the steel industry as a whole, there will be significant investment in carbon-neutral aspect. And we are also struggling with the hike of material cost. And we, honestly, understand their circumstance at Nippon Steel.\n",
"\n",
"And on the other hand, as you may also be aware, we are in the B2C business. In other words, we deliver the complete product, which is car, to customers. In other words, even when there are price hikes, it is difficult for us to transfer those hikes directly into the consumers. That’s the nature of our industry. So as was explained, we have to sincerely steadily reduce costs one by one. In other words, with regards to price negotiation, both sides need to explain each other’s circumstance and understand each other and then continue to sincerely negotiate how we can set the price.\n",
"\n",
"And regarding the electromagnetic steel, it is, yes, a litigation right now. But there are 5.5 million people in this industry, and then we pursue to achieve carbon neutrality in the auto industry. Therefore, we have to try making this effort steadily and sincerely. And regarding the litigation, I have to say that because this is a pending case, I have to refrain from making any further comments. That is all from myself.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much, Mr. Kondo. We'd like to move on to the next question. From NHK, [Taruno-san], please. [Operator Instructions]\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Excuse me. Can you hear me now?\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Yes, I can hear you.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Analyst\n",
"\n",
"So first of all, regarding the sales volume, you have reviewed the forecast. And can you explain about the factor why we have done the review? And hearing the results, it seems that it is improving, but your explanation was that in substance, it is a downward revision. So you are looking at this at a very -- that it is a tough result forecast. So can you explain also why you're looking it from -- as a tough forecast?\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"I think you have one question. So this, the reason and also how -- the way of concept of this reviewing of the sale and production volume and also for the, in substance, downward revision, why are we having this kind of a tough understanding of the forecast, the reasons is what you've asked.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yes.\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"So Mr. Kon will respond.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Thank you for your question. Regarding the review of our sales volume, so on this slide on the screen, you can see the initial – first initial forecast term, it was 8.7 million for the consolidated sales, which has been dropped to 150,000 this time with the most – latest forecast. And we’ve had some opportunities to explain this up to this day. But there are some situation where we had to drop our production plan volume from our initial plan due to certain reasons.\n",
"\n",
"And I might be repeating myself, but first of all, there’s the – in Southeast Asia mainly, COVID-19 has had impacts. And therefore, the local production plants had to be shut down, and the parts supply had limitations. And also, there were some impacts from semiconductor issues. Malaysia, Vietnam, there were parts supply shortages that there were some months that had a drop in production because of these impacts. So one – the review – a reason of this review will be impact from those factors.\n",
"\n",
"And also about the downward revision that we are interpreting the forecast in a very tough perspective, to explain that, for the first half results, for example, compared with last year and 2 years ago, we do understand that it is a large increase in operating income. And again, repeating myself, this is really because of the strong efforts by the dealers, the suppliers and also the people working in Toyota. There were strong efforts made so that they can deliver the customers the vehicles as much as possible, as early as possible. And all of these efforts has beared – has been combined to come up with these results.\n",
"\n",
"However, in these results, there are some areas – there are some reasons or factors that was a contribution from the – something outside of our own strengths. So we are looking at that neutrally. And for the full year forecast, it is actually, in numbers, an upward revision. But we focus on the areas outside of the ForEx event – effect, and we focus on those non-ForEx impacts to make improvements in the profit as much as possible. So that is how we explained outside as well. And when we focus on these non-ForEx impacts, we do see multiple challenges that we have to face. So as much as possible, we’re going to make efforts to recover and overcome these challenges to improve as much as possible. So that effort will continue.\n",
"\n",
"That will be my explanation for your question. Did I answer your question?\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Mr. [Taruno], thank you very much.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Analyst\n",
"\n",
"Yes, understood.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"So from Wall Street Journal, Mr. Sean. [Operator Instructions]\n",
"\n",
"Sean McLain\n",
"\n",
"All right. Can you hear me?\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Yes, we can hear you.\n",
"\n",
"Sean McLain\n",
"\n",
"Great. So I was hoping to get a little more insight into your outlook for the remainder of the year and on next year in terms of when you think sales volumes will fully rebound, basically when the industry will get back to normal, what's your outlook on that, and what are the biggest challenges to achieving that?\n",
"\n",
"And then secondly, I'm wondering if you could talk about shortages beyond semiconductor. So we've seen some news recently about shortages with magnesium and other parts. Basically, what are you seeing on the horizon? What are the things that you're looking out for that could possibly affect your recovery?\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much for your question, Sean. First of all, your question was about the timing of our recovery in the remaining year and also the overall industry's recovery and what are the challenges to achieve that. This is the first question.\n",
"\n",
"And the second question is that now semiconductors are in shortage, and it is being focused. But other than semiconductors, is there any concern and any shortage? Then we would like to -- you would like us to make a comment on this. Mr. Kon is going to answer both questions.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Thank you so much for your question. Starting with the first one, in the remaining period of fiscal year, the timing for us to completely recover, it is difficult to make anything certain. Of course, risk is becoming significantly smaller. However, we’re not in a stage to say that the risk is zero. I don’t think the situation allows us to say that yet.\n",
"\n",
"And for semiconductors, well, there are many factors, many things, games – and the other component, demand has – the demand has sort of stopped. So the supply-and-demand balance has stabilized. But on the other hand, the semiconductors are different from the type to type, so we have to be very cautious in looking at it. So in December, in January, I cannot say that it will recover to the past. I cannot say that there is no risk in reducing the production. However, in comparison to the past level, even though there are some risk of production decrease, it is going to recover quite a bit. And that is the situation.\n",
"\n",
"And as for the overall industry, I cannot say anything certain about the industry. But for the challenge, the supply of the components, if it is solved, then the OEM challenges will be solved all of a sudden. And in that sense, the energy and the material costs, we hope that those prices would not be hiked so rapidly, and we have to also secure those materials. And that is the challenge that we are facing at the industry.\n",
"\n",
"Other than the semiconductor, there is nothing that is critical at the moment. Due to the energy shortage, some magnesium, yes, we are hearing that there are some shortage. However, we do not think that is a critical issue at the moment, and that’s not what we hear at the moment.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Sean-san, for your question. We'd like to move on to the next question. Shiraki-san from Reuters, please. [Operator Instructions]\n",
"\n",
"Maki Shiraki\n",
"\n",
"I'm Shiraki from Reuters, and I have 2 questions as well. So in your consolidated sales forecast, the electrified vehicles volume is my question. Also, compared with the initial forecast, there has been a slight decrease. And I might be taking it in a selfish way, but here, is it purely about the sales trend impact? Or is it because of the semiconductor crunch and the material price hike? Because of such a high level of material prices now, does it mean that price pressure is more on the electrified vehicles related to the inventory management issue that you said before? Maybe are you focusing on selling more of the conventional gasoline vehicles? Will that be a background to this revision? Gasoline price hikes is another trend that we're seeing in the market. And so of course, from an environmental perspective, I thought that electrified vehicles will have a higher ratio. But why is it that you dropped the ratio there, too?\n",
"\n",
"And next question is about not related to the performance, but in the -- under Mr. Kishida's administration, there is a topic discussed about to review the disclosure from companies and to reduce the frequency from every quarter. And from the press, there are some concerns. But from the PR side or functions inside the company, also for the investments toward -- making future investments towards human resource development and other business plans, some people say that quarterly disclosure will be too much frequent. So Toyota being a global company, what are your thoughts regarding this quarterly disclosure? And in Europe, there are some reviews that are being discussed. But if you have any ideas about what will be an appropriate way to review the quarterly announcement, can you share with us?\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Shiraki-san, for your questions. The first is for the electrified vehicles volume, it has been downward revised from the previous forecast. So the reasons is what you want to hear.\n",
"\n",
"And the second question is about the disclosure announcement of the quarterly results. There is a discussion about reviewing this frequency and what does Toyota think about this topic. And so that -- both of it will be responded by Mr. Kon.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Thank you for your questions. Starting with the electrified vehicle ratio, as you have pointed out, slightly the ratio has dropped. But there is no significant factor to this, such as a global common factor. That is not the case. For electrified vehicles and, for example, China, China is not included in the consolidated sales volume, but hybrid accounts for about 20% last year in China. And this year, it has increased up to around 30% electrified vehicles in China. And therefore, globally, it doesn't mean that we see a reduction in the ratio of electrified vehicles in the global market. So our understanding of this change is that this is not a significant change -- difference.\n",
"\n",
"Maki Shiraki\n",
"\n",
"No, it's not about the ratio, but I wanted to hear about the volume -- actual volume. Well, so is that the same reason as well?\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Yes. For the forecast, we first see that -- a drop of 150,000 from -- revised downward from our initial forecast. And it's not that we intentionally drop only the electrified vehicles, honestly speaking. So it's just that looking at when we revise the most -- latest sales volume forecast, we have revised also in same ratio as in the same way the electrified vehicles. So this is not something that is just focused on electrified vehicles changes. And is it okay? Did I answer correctly? Was there any -- did I make any misleading comments?\n",
"\n",
"Maki Shiraki\n",
"\n",
"No, I'm fine. I understand now.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Thank you. So for your second question about the quarterly performance announcement, for right now, I do not fully – I’m not fully aware of what kind of discussions in detail is happening. But when I talk to investors and stakeholders, it needs to be something that will be beneficial for the stakeholders and investors. That is the way I look at the quarterly results announcement. A company, as a going concern always, well, rather than every 3 months, we are thinking about 10 years in the future, 20 years in the future as we operate our business. I think that’s a common way that a company operates.\n",
"\n",
"And in the meantime, of course, we will have to – it’s very important to make the most appropriate and timely announcements and reports. And for key matters, for very important matters, we don’t have – we should not wait 3 months and we should make those kinds of reports and announcements of key matters in a timely way and appropriate time. But if the quarterly results should be announced, we have to think about – it will – may cause that the ups and downs as seen in every quarter may be in sync with the ups and downs of the company value. So if it is understood in that way, probably it will not be so positive to make a quarterly report.\n",
"\n",
"Therefore, together with those financial disclosures, we think that it’s important to have media like Toyota Times, our own media like Toyota Times to be able to disclose the way of thinking of Toyota, the philosophy of Toyota, what’s happening in Toyota. We think we are trying to use the most of these own media to explain about what is happening within Toyota, and I think this is quite important for us. So that will be my answer to your question.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Ms. Shiraki. We'd like to take the next question. From Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun, Ms. [Masatoshi], please.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Analyst\n",
"\n",
"This is [Masatoshi] from Nikkan Kogyo. Can you hear me? Regarding the first half results, so minus JPY 30 billion for the cost reduction efforts, and I think this was impacted by the material cost increase. So together with the cost reduction benefit, can you give me the breakdown? And also concerned with the period from January to September, the raw material price, did you change your opinion and position on this? And that's the first question.\n",
"\n",
"And second question is that this situation -- under this situation, what kind of extra room do you have to gain back those benefits? And what are the measures that you're going to take?\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much for your question, Ms. [Masatoshi]. The first question was about the impact of the cost reduction and the breakdown of that. And also your question was about the hike of the material price.\n",
"\n",
"And the second question was about whether or not there is any more opportunity to recover the profit. Mr. Kon is going to answer this.\n",
"\n",
"Kenta Kon\n",
"\n",
"Thank you so much for your question. In the first half, so minus JPY 30 billion breakdown, so the so-called pure cost reduction excluding the market is about JPY 300 billion per year being the target for us, and because this is half year, which will be JPY 150 billion. And we were a little short of this target as a result of the pure cost reduction. Conversely speaking, the other than that was the market fluctuation, a little less than JPY 100 billion. We were short of this target, unfortunately. This is the cost reduction benefit, and the remainder is the market.\n",
"\n",
"In the second half – one moment, please. In the second half, compared with the first half, the impact is going to be larger a little bit. On year-on-year basis, the cost reduction will be minus JPY 345 billion, on Page 18, that is, 18. The annual cost reduction is JPY 300 billion, and we are also a little short of this target. In other words and conversely speaking, remainder is the market fluctuation, but a little more than JPY 200 billion is the cost reduction, and the remainder is the market impact. In other words, net-net, the second half is going to be – suffer a little tougher than the first half.\n",
"\n",
"And our measures to strengthen our profitability, well, on this point, as much as possible, the FX fluctuation should be eliminated as much as possible. In other words, we would like to turn this number more positively by excluding those FX impacts. That is the numerical aspect, but there is no major measure which can turn around the number by JPY 100 million all of the sudden. It’s in the unit of several thousand or several tens of thousands, the accumulation of small benefits. And we will continue with those series of more methods, and also value chain, including the supplies and used cars and connected car business software, we would like to further improve the profitability of those areas. And by doing so, we would like to improve our profitability higher, more than JPY 2,800 billion.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Thank you so much, [Masatoshi-san]. It is now the scheduled time. However, we'd like to take a last question. From Toyo Keizai, Kigawa-san please. [Operator Instructions]\n",
"\n",
"Yukinobu Kigawa\n",
"\n",
"Can you hear me?\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"I think your microphone...\n",
"\n",
"Yukinobu Kigawa\n",
"\n",
"Can you hear me?\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Yes, we can hear you now.\n",
"\n",
"Yukinobu Kigawa\n",
"\n",
"I have a question about the -- your future plan about how you promote electrification. 2030, 200-gigawatt plant operation capacity is what you explained to secure, and bZ4X was what we have announced. And in 2025, you're going to have a North American plant established and make an investment by Toyota alone. And in the meantime, what happens in the world is electrification momentum, strong gains -- becoming stronger. And also, you'll need a lot of investment. You need to have efficiency in your investment. But once again, how are you going to be taking initiatives toward electrification promotion?\n",
"\n",
"Jun Nagata\n",
"\n",
"Thank you, Mr. Kigawa, for your question. This question myself, Nagata, would respond to.\n",
"\n",
"Regarding electrification, we receive a lot of questions, and we have repeatedly responded that basically, it is about how we are going to reduce CO2 as quickly as possible starting now. And what Toyota has been saying is that regarding electrification, we are going to become a department store of electrified vehicles, which, in other words, means that we’re going to have a full lineup of electrified vehicles so that we can deliver it to various regions and markets, customers all around the world, and have our customers choose what they want to use. That’s what we have been saying is our approach.\n",
"\n",
"And for each region, especially the energy situation that will be supplied there and also the fuel situation is completely different. Therefore, in Europe, there’s a lot of renewables. So battery Evs will be good. But in other regions, there should be other options that will be most appropriate for them and to have the consumers, users select it. So this has always been our approach.\n",
"\n",
"And for what you have mentioned, Mr. Kigawa, regarding battery Evs, we also think that for both quantity and cost, if the renewable energy is reduced further in terms of cost and have more supply, then the battery Evs will be a very good potential CO2 reduction vehicle, a very good solution. And as you have mentioned, the batteries, Toyota is going to make JPY 1.5 trillion investment to build that foundation for supply. And also within United – America, we’re going to make until 2030 the battery plants – making investments of JPY 380 billion. And for – until 2025, the battery EV investments and lineup, we have committed to 15 models to be prepared in that timing. And then we have bZ4X, the batteries EV – EV-specified lineup we have announced, so batteries and battery Evs, both of it.\n",
"\n",
"To other – it doesn’t – compared with other OEMs, I don’t think we are inferior. I think we are preparing ourselves to be competitive in the competition with other OEMs regarding batteries and battery Evs. So we will be steadily promoting this approach and plan. However, up to now, we have been saying many things. But at the end, battery Evs, you need to have the clean energy as the base. If you have clean energy as the premise, then – as a precondition, then it will be very effective.\n",
"\n",
"But unfortunately, in Japan, with our energy situation, rather than battery Evs, the plug-in hybrids and the other electrified vehicles meet our conditions. It will reduce the CO2 emissions in Japan, and also, it will be also easy to buy the product. And then that will also contribute to reducing the CO2 emission in this region. So this is also what we have been saying.\n",
"\n",
"And also in order to promote electrification, having the options, a wide variety of options of electrification is what we want to do. And that means the full lineup of electrified vehicles in Toyota terms. So in order to prepare this full lineup, we will be working on various technical innovations so that Japan’s 5.5 million employment related to this industry can be protected. This is another message that we have been saying.\n",
"\n",
"But very unfortunately – so we are going to do a lot of electrified vehicle projects. But what is happening now, that will be a question that we have been asked. And unfortunately, some people are saying that Toyota is a promoter of hybrid and is against the promoting battery Evs. Unfortunately, that is how we are talked about. But – so I’m feeling a struggle of – it’s very difficult to communicate what we’re trying to do. So that is also a fact, feeling that our message is not really conveyed.\n",
"\n",
"And so how we have people – how we communicate this, how we can receive the understanding that Toyota is very serious in promoting the battery EV, this is something that we still have to consider and plan. And that is a struggle that I have right now regarding how to communicate. So I very much appreciate the advice and comments from the media, too, so that we can think about how we will be able to better communicate. I’m sorry, I received – I’m giving you back a question receiving a question, but I hope that we can work together in that communication side.\n",
"\n",
"Well, then about the battery Evs, how you explained that, especially the communication to consumers, you said a little earlier that you are well positioned to compete with the other OEMs. And probably the way that you expressed this should be changed. I think I need your advice on that. Well, we always talk about we’re going to show media it’s better to have a more concrete lineup of battery Evs more clearly and show it to the present consumer. But we’ll now be putting our heads together to think strong – to think about what is the best way of expression in communicating our intention for the electrification promotion.\n",
"\n",
"Unidentified Company Representative\n",
"\n",
"Thank you very much, Mr. Kigawa. And with that, we'd like to end our financial results briefing. Thank you very much for joining us despite your busy schedule. We would like to end our press briefing here. Thank you.\n",
"\"\"\""
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"id": "BtLXHikgTfLK"
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"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"# getSents\n",
"grab sentences from the transcripts using spacy."
],
"metadata": {
"id": "koITpjnIXD-2"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"def getSents(text):\n",
" doc = nlp(text)\n",
" res=[]\n",
" for sent in doc.sents: res.append(sent.text)\n",
" return res"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "RibBxy3ASjcc"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"#https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/01/25/nextera-energy-nee-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcrip/\n",
"nextera=getSents(nextera_text)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "NAtmerWnXGDR"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"len(nextera)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "5kZqzftHXJlw",
"outputId": "97fd3ca1-bf9a-415b-864b-fdd3bc1d9a82"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"581"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 13
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"#https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/02/04/ford-f-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/\n",
"ford=getSents(ford_text)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "BaxujCw7SjHU"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"len(ford)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "S3of3ECBS6_n",
"outputId": "02947dcc-3ccc-4d04-f588-c9be4b1b3f8d"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"500"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 15
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"#https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-earnings-call-transcript/\n",
"tesla=getSents(tesla_text)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "8uFSTufPS8U6"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"len(tesla)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "TYUQOie0TMw5",
"outputId": "0a22edab-d150-41f6-b55b-4888406cc0db"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"556"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 17
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"#https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/11/10/nio-inc-nio-q3-2021-earnings-call-transcript/\n",
"nio=getSents(nio_text)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "LhdSb_lYTNpI"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"len(nio)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "-ee5nhMBTNlb",
"outputId": "d9264dcd-4a69-42f3-ba32-8bf9ece5ece6"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"428"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 19
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"#https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465495-toyota-motor-corporation-tm-management-on-q2-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript\n",
"toyota=getSents(toyota_text)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "6Fpa-m4_Tczc"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"len(toyota)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "NJO8fkLqTcv2",
"outputId": "4346caf7-d6d5-4ba7-cd21-79e0c86a76af"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"419"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 21
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"cars=tesla+ford+nio+toyota"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "KjKO-DbkTnNF"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"len(cars)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "Dm2RG-EDTnJ1",
"outputId": "6ee5d2fd-7ff2-47b9-a7f3-4a0389aa3168"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"1903"
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},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 23
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]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"# Get Embeddings\n",
"There are semantic search(https://www.sbert.net/examples/applications/semantic-search/README.html) models created to 'asymmetric' search, i.e. short keyword search phrase vs long context sentence/paragraph results. One such family of models are trained on MSMARCO: https://www.sbert.net/docs/pretrained-models/msmarco-v3.html, dataset created using Bing search results by Microsoft.\n"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "xIvTugqWTsbU"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"from sentence_transformers import SentenceTransformer, util\n",
"import torch\n",
"\n",
"# embedder = SentenceTransformer('all-MiniLM-L6-v2')\n",
"\n",
"#https://www.sbert.net/docs/pretrained-models/msmarco-v3.html\n",
"embedder = SentenceTransformer('msmarco-distilbert-base-v4') #models trained on msmarco dataset is good for assymetric search (e.g. short keywords to find long sentences/paras)\n",
"\n",
"# Corpus with example sentences\n",
"# corpus_embeddings = embedder.encode(cars, convert_to_tensor=True)"
],
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},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"# do generic search\n",
"Looking across all transcripts, the general results seem decent, at least able to pick out sentences that contain 'electric vehicles'"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "oVTdQlbaT1dC"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"# Query sentences:\n",
"query = ['electric vehicles']\n",
"\n",
"# Find the closest 5 sentences of the corpus for each query sentence based on cosine similarity\n",
"top_k = min(5, len(cars))\n",
"query_embedding = embedder.encode(query, convert_to_tensor=True)\n",
"\n",
"# We use cosine-similarity and torch.topk to find the highest 5 scores\n",
"corpus_embeddings = embedder.encode(cars, convert_to_tensor=True)\n",
"cos_scores = util.cos_sim(query_embedding, corpus_embeddings)[0]\n",
"top_results = torch.topk(cos_scores, k=top_k)\n",
"\n",
"for score, idx in zip(top_results[0], top_results[1]):\n",
" print(cars[idx], \"(Score: {:.4f})\".format(score))\n",
" print(\"\\n======================\\n\")"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "ZILFS4baUiHR",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"outputId": "b31a1ae7-b7f2-41fb-aed0-c92aa8c7a681"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"We are going to reengineer that vehicle now and then use that expertise for Lightning, E-Transit and, of course, our all electric platforms. (Score: 0.5072)\n",
"\n",
"======================\n",
"\n",
"And that means the full lineup of electrified vehicles in Toyota terms. (Score: 0.4849)\n",
"\n",
"======================\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"But unfortunately, in Japan, with our energy situation, rather than battery Evs, the plug-in hybrids and the other electrified vehicles meet our conditions. (Score: 0.4839)\n",
"\n",
"======================\n",
"\n",
"And what Toyota has been saying is that regarding electrification, we are going to become a department store of electrified vehicles, which, in other words, means that we’re going to have a full lineup of electrified vehicles so that we can deliver it to various regions and markets, customers all around the world, and have our customers choose what they want to use. (Score: 0.4733)\n",
"\n",
"======================\n",
"\n",
"So just to recap 2021, it was a breakthrough year for Tesla and for electric vehicles in general. (Score: 0.4621)\n",
"\n",
"======================\n",
"\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"# focused search by company"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "AD-jaghxT3GZ"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"import pandas as pd"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "vfgnhn_0YeaJ"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"def companySearch(coy_name,corpus,query,top_k=10):\n",
" \"return dataframe of sentences that are the top 10 most similar to the query, i.e. our theme title\"\n",
" top_k = min(top_k, len(corpus))\n",
"\n",
" corpus_embeddings = embedder.encode(corpus, convert_to_tensor=True)\n",
" query_embedding = embedder.encode(query, convert_to_tensor=True)\n",
"\n",
" cos_scores = util.cos_sim(query_embedding, corpus_embeddings)[0]\n",
" top_results = torch.topk(cos_scores, k=top_k)\n",
"\n",
" t,s=[],[]\n",
" for score, idx in zip(top_results[0], top_results[1]):\n",
" t.append(corpus[idx])\n",
" s.append(score.item())\n",
"\n",
" res=pd.DataFrame()\n",
" res['Text']=t\n",
" res['CosSim']=s\n",
" res['Company']=coy_name\n",
" \n",
" return res"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "Ypfo5MQxZEbP"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"query='Electric Vehicles'"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "osas8Ry7Z0F5"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"tesla_res=companySearch('tesla',tesla,query)\n",
"tesla_res.describe()"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 300
},
"id": "-JzI9PaCaG92",
"outputId": "5fd8472d-a4f3-44ee-b1b1-802ce51d6336"
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" CosSim\n",
"count 10.000000\n",
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},
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}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"it's able to pull out sentences that don't contain \"electric vehicles\", like \"I think it's way cheaper to point with **robotaxi**, which is an autonomous Tesla, which every car we've made in the past, three or four years will be capable of that than a bus or a subway.\" although this sentence prob contains more of an 'autonomous driving' theme than a EV theme. "
],
"metadata": {
"id": "q6bOdaTURJgC"
}
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{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"tesla_res"
],
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"id": "qNDQWJjYbNNr",
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"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
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" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
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"text/plain": [
" Text CosSim Company\n",
"0 So just to recap 2021, it was a breakthrough y... 0.462133 tesla\n",
"1 I think it's way cheaper to point with robotax... 0.451235 tesla\n",
"2 I think it really becomes quite a compelling s... 0.449464 tesla\n",
"3 \\n\\nWe will, however, do a lot of engineering ... 0.318091 tesla\n",
"4 We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth... 0.307923 tesla\n",
"5 It encourages Tesla insurance with informatics... 0.306852 tesla\n",
"6 \\n\\nDrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Pow... 0.301889 tesla\n",
"7 Millions of cars suddenly have about four or f... 0.300898 tesla\n",
"8 So we will not be introducing new vehicle mode... 0.298141 tesla\n",
"9 You have a passenger car, which normally is dr... 0.290655 tesla"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 33
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"nio_res=companySearch('nio',nio,query)\n",
"nio_res.describe()"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
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"height": 300
},
"id": "Q-VV3soRaNlt",
"outputId": "c50d5a3f-dadf-486e-f00f-3814f1fbc936"
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"execution_count": null,
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{
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"text/plain": [
" CosSim\n",
"count 10.000000\n",
"mean 0.302390\n",
"std 0.074932\n",
"min 0.229777\n",
"25% 0.236674\n",
"50% 0.294825\n",
"75% 0.345246\n",
"max 0.453781"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 34
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"it's able to pull out sentences that don't contain \"electric vehicles\", like \"And considering the strong **EV** demand on our new -- more new models in 2023, do we have a plan in constructing more new plants?\" that said the cos sim score for this is quite low"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "RH5PAJljQkFA"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"nio_res"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 562
},
"id": "72B6wkF2bbBv",
"outputId": "59813852-ce1a-4516-9ae1-5120d52ea3f4"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
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" [key], {});\n",
" if (!dataTable) return;\n",
"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
" '<a target=\"_blank\" href=https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/data_table.ipynb>data table notebook</a>'\n",
" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
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"2 On top of that, the 75-kWh hybrid battery pack... 0.349493 nio\n",
"3 [Foreign language] In September, we launched t... 0.332506 nio\n",
"4 And then second question, more longer term, yo... 0.331268 nio\n",
"5 It's certainly a very exciting product. 0.258382 nio\n",
"6 And considering the strong EV demand on our ne... 0.243499 nio\n",
"7 \\n\\nIn China, the competition is becoming more... 0.234398 nio\n",
"8 NIO's battery system team worked closely with ... 0.231150 nio\n",
"9 And the second is improved raw material prices... 0.229777 nio"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 35
},
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n",
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n",
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n",
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n",
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n",
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n",
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n",
"Error: Runtime no longer has a reference to this dataframe, please re-run this cell and try again.\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"toyota_res=companySearch('toyota',toyota,query)\n",
"toyota_res.describe()"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 300
},
"id": "9bGHPq9_aS-2",
"outputId": "6017fd4d-e6d7-4a4c-e1ba-c3f1bd30fa94"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
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"\n",
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" CosSim\n",
"count 10.000000\n",
"mean 0.411863\n",
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"min 0.342340\n",
"25% 0.373635\n",
"50% 0.389873\n",
"75% 0.463503\n",
"max 0.484926"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 36
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"it's able to pull out sentences that don't contain \"electric vehicles\", like \"And for what you have mentioned, Mr. Kigawa, regarding **battery Evs**, we also think that for both quantity and cost, if the renewable energy is reduced further in terms of cost and have more supply, then the **battery Evs** will be a very good potential CO2 reduction vehicle, a very good solution.\""
],
"metadata": {
"id": "y_tGyFhvRySA"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"toyota_res"
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"id": "I0Vn8iZzZ7w3",
"outputId": "a97febae-d348-4471-f6c2-695c4f510ae2"
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" [key], {});\n",
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"\n",
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" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
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" Text CosSim Company\n",
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"2 And what Toyota has been saying is that regard... 0.473329 toyota\n",
"3 \\n\\nBut very unfortunately – so we are going t... 0.434024 toyota\n",
"4 And it's not that we intentionally drop only t... 0.395757 toyota\n",
"5 The ratio of electrified vehicles was 27.7%. 0.383989 toyota\n",
"6 And for what you have mentioned, Mr. Kigawa, r... 0.381245 toyota\n",
"7 The first is for the electrified vehicles volu... 0.371099 toyota\n",
"8 So battery Evs will be good. 0.367992 toyota\n",
"9 For electrified vehicles and, for example, Chi... 0.342340 toyota"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 37
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]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"Nextera's mean cos sim is around 0.26, lower than all the automakers above, and the sentences are not really EV related"
],
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"id": "Wx0os2p3P1yL"
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{
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"source": [
"nextera_res=companySearch('nextera',nextera,query)\n",
"nextera_res.describe()"
],
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"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 300
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"id": "YVQt4_EsZts7",
"outputId": "300533ee-1abd-4bfe-edd4-bd74511bc9dd"
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"\n",
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" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
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"text/plain": [
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"count 10.000000\n",
"mean 0.262356\n",
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"25% 0.215504\n",
"50% 0.225228\n",
"75% 0.271327\n",
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"nextera_res"
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"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 488
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"id": "Gl7CS_8da4sX",
"outputId": "6129ed11-00ce-4e9c-9ee1-943fe9cb2e24"
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"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
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" Text CosSim Company\n",
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"1 And FPL was recognized for the sixth time in s... 0.391971 nextera\n",
"2 Jim has been an unbelievable steward of this c... 0.277495 nextera\n",
"3 \\n\\nAs we have previously discussed, green hyd... 0.252823 nextera\n",
"4 And the third thing is renewable enablers. 0.233267 nextera\n",
"5 Our origination performance in 2021 reflects c... 0.217188 nextera\n",
"6 \\n\\nWe believe we have an excellent opportunit... 0.216700 nextera\n",
"7 \\n\\nWe believe that the rapidly accelerating t... 0.215105 nextera\n",
"8 As Jim mentioned, energy resources had an outs... 0.210851 nextera\n",
"9 \\n\\nAnd I would like to thank all of our Flori... 0.208189 nextera"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 39
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df=pd.concat([toyota_res,tesla_res,nio_res,nextera_res])"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "xe9KWemZcTAP"
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"execution_count": null,
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"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"(40, 3)"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 41
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df_filter=df[df.CosSim>=0.3]"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "nyiqiXd9cdrH"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df_filter.shape"
],
"metadata": {
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"id": "jK8DGn81cdnv",
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"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"(25, 3)"
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},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 43
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"we do see some non relevant sentences still coming from nextera, but its the lowest, so the filtering, though noisy, should still make sense overall. the filter threshold is arbitrary and will need to be tuned."
],
"metadata": {
"id": "09iKSmlGSHHv"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df_filter.groupby('Company')['Text'].count()"
],
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"id": "kXJf9zzDcnNI",
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"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Company\n",
"nextera 2\n",
"nio 5\n",
"tesla 8\n",
"toyota 10\n",
"Name: Text, dtype: int64"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 46
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},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df_filter.sort_values('CosSim',ascending=False)"
],
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"2 And what Toyota has been saying is that regard... 0.473329 toyota\n",
"0 So just to recap 2021, it was a breakthrough y... 0.462133 tesla\n",
"0 As the automotive industry is accelerating its... 0.453781 nio\n",
"1 I think it's way cheaper to point with robotax... 0.451235 tesla\n",
"2 I think it really becomes quite a compelling s... 0.449464 tesla\n",
"3 \\n\\nBut very unfortunately – so we are going t... 0.434024 toyota\n",
"0 Moreover, FPL was ranked No.\\n\\n1 in both resi... 0.399970 nextera\n",
"4 And it's not that we intentionally drop only t... 0.395757 toyota\n",
"1 And FPL was recognized for the sixth time in s... 0.391971 nextera\n",
"5 The ratio of electrified vehicles was 27.7%. 0.383989 toyota\n",
"6 And for what you have mentioned, Mr. Kigawa, r... 0.381245 toyota\n",
"7 The first is for the electrified vehicles volu... 0.371099 toyota\n",
"8 So battery Evs will be good. 0.367992 toyota\n",
"1 [Foreign language] According to the data publi... 0.359649 nio\n",
"2 On top of that, the 75-kWh hybrid battery pack... 0.349493 nio\n",
"9 For electrified vehicles and, for example, Chi... 0.342340 toyota\n",
"3 [Foreign language] In September, we launched t... 0.332506 nio\n",
"4 And then second question, more longer term, yo... 0.331268 nio\n",
"3 \\n\\nWe will, however, do a lot of engineering ... 0.318091 tesla\n",
"4 We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth... 0.307923 tesla\n",
"5 It encourages Tesla insurance with informatics... 0.306852 tesla\n",
"6 \\n\\nDrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Pow... 0.301889 tesla\n",
"7 Millions of cars suddenly have about four or f... 0.300898 tesla"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 53
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"# get Sentiment\n",
"running it through a basic finbert to get sentiment scores."
],
"metadata": {
"id": "8oF_XTVjcuyT"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"from transformers import BertTokenizer, BertForSequenceClassification\n",
"from transformers import pipeline"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "KUPXa6bccnJD"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"finbert = BertForSequenceClassification.from_pretrained('yiyanghkust/finbert-tone',num_labels=3)\n",
"tokenizer = BertTokenizer.from_pretrained('yiyanghkust/finbert-tone')\n",
"\n",
"nlp = pipeline(\"sentiment-analysis\", model=finbert, tokenizer=tokenizer)"
],
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"height": 113,
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{
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"source": [
"sentences=df_filter.Text.tolist()\n",
"results = nlp(sentences)"
],
"metadata": {
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"execution_count": null,
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},
{
"cell_type": "code",
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"label=[]\n",
"score=[]\n",
"for r in results:\n",
" label.append(r['label'])\n",
" score.append(r['score'])"
],
"metadata": {
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"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
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"outputId": "067fc57d-2ca3-4128-8af9-e33c396c78c8"
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"df_filter['sentiment_score']=label\n",
"df_filter['sentiment_confidence']=score"
],
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"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "dhj-Hgvje9fF",
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{
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"text": [
"/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/ipykernel_launcher.py:1: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
"A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
"Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
"\n",
"See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
" \"\"\"Entry point for launching an IPython kernel.\n",
"/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/ipykernel_launcher.py:2: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
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"Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
"\n",
"See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
" \n"
]
}
]
},
{
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"df_filter.head(2)"
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"id": "PTlFUzqfT6NS",
"outputId": "20d32a51-faac-44bf-fd72-b07bfbf23309"
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{
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"\n",
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},
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{
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"sentD={'neutral':0,'negative':-1,'positive':1}\n",
"df_filter.replace({\"sentiment_score\": sentD},inplace=True)\n",
"df_filter.head(2)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
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"height": 216
},
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},
"execution_count": null,
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{
"output_type": "stream",
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"Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
"\n",
"See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
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" await google.colab.kernel.invokeFunction('convertToInteractive',\n",
" [key], {});\n",
" if (!dataTable) return;\n",
"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
" '<a target=\"_blank\" href=https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/data_table.ipynb>data table notebook</a>'\n",
" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
" dataTable['output_type'] = 'display_data';\n",
" await google.colab.output.renderOutput(dataTable, element);\n",
" const docLink = document.createElement('div');\n",
" docLink.innerHTML = docLinkHtml;\n",
" element.appendChild(docLink);\n",
" }\n",
" </script>\n",
" </div>\n",
" </div>\n",
" "
],
"text/plain": [
" Text ... sentiment_confidence\n",
"0 And that means the full lineup of electrified ... ... 0.997465\n",
"1 \\n\\nBut unfortunately, in Japan, with our ener... ... 0.760654\n",
"\n",
"[2 rows x 5 columns]"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 69
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df_filter['Confidence_Cosim_Weighted_Sentiment']=df_filter.sentiment_score*df_filter.sentiment_confidence*df_filter.CosSim\n",
"df_filter['Cosim_Weighted_Sentiment']=df_filter.sentiment_score*df_filter.CosSim"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"id": "n8z52R1nSurI",
"outputId": "5bd9108f-e272-4a79-c17e-afa67d6a5b9d"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stderr",
"text": [
"/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/ipykernel_launcher.py:1: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
"A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
"Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
"\n",
"See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
" \"\"\"Entry point for launching an IPython kernel.\n",
"/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/ipykernel_launcher.py:2: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
"A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
"Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
"\n",
"See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
" \n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"- we see toyota having the lowest sentiment weighted scores. if we go back and look at the sentences picked up, they seem to have some downward revisions of their EV volume.\n",
"- tesla seemed to have had a good 2021. so naturally its at the highest\n",
"- we see nextera having some scores here when they shouldn't. this approach is definitely noisy, but with better filtering, we could get a pretty good baseline without doing any hand labelling/training"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "QjLsHgXDU026"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df_filter.groupby(['Company'])['Confidence_Cosim_Weighted_Sentiment'].sum().sort_values().plot.barh()"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 282
},
"id": "13GhfYcqeeTa",
"outputId": "109cce6e-fd4f-4057-ec60-278eb8e48dca"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f24ca5bc650>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 85
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"image/png": "iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAaAAAAD4CAYAAACqnDJ3AAAABHNCSVQICAgIfAhkiAAAAAlwSFlzAAALEgAACxIB0t1+/AAAADh0RVh0U29mdHdhcmUAbWF0cGxvdGxpYiB2ZXJzaW9uMy4yLjIsIGh0dHA6Ly9tYXRwbG90bGliLm9yZy+WH4yJAAASpElEQVR4nO3de7SldV3H8fdHRm6KM9UgEWoHcdCQCaTBlBAhyYXMUipQUrQglZaWLbMoWpq3LMeollfU8YZaIalk1KgYOkILQTnDbbgaKipoXlBHhOWF4dsf+xk5HM7MeWY6e//2Oef9WmvWevZ+Lvuzzzl7Pvv3PM9+dqoKSZJG7X6tA0iSFicLSJLUhAUkSWrCApIkNWEBSZKaWNI6wDhZvnx5TUxMtI4hSfPKhg0bvl1Ve27vehbQFBMTE0xOTraOIUnzSpIv78h67oKTJDVhAUmSmrCAJElNWECSpCYsIElSExaQJKkJC0iS1IQFJElqwgKSJDVhAUmSmrCAJElNWECSpCa8GOkUG2/dxMTp61rHkKSRunnN6iaP6whIktSEBSRJasICkiQ1YQFJkpqwgCRJTVhAkqQmLCBJUhMWkCSpCQtIktTE2BVQkmVJXriD6346yaq5ziRJmntjV0DAMmCHCkiSNH+MYwGtAfZLcmWSM5KcluSyJFcneRVAkgckWZfkqiTXJDlx+kaSvDXJZJJrt6wnSRof43gx0tOBA6vq4CRPBk4AHgsEOC/JEcCewNeqajVAkqUzbOelVfWdJDsBn0zyy1V19YiegyRpFuM4Aprqyd2/K4DLgUcBK4CNwG8keV2SJ1TVphnWfUaSy7t1Hw0cMNMDJDm1GylNbr5zps1IkoZhHEdAUwV4bVW9/T4zkkOAY4HXJPlkVb16yrx9gT8DDq2q7yY5C9h1pgeoqrXAWoBd9l5Rc/8UJEkzGccR0O3AHt30+cDvJ3kgQJJ9kjw4yS8Ad1bVPwFnAIdM28aDgDuATUn2Ap4ymuiSpL7GbgRUVbcluTjJNcDHgH8BLkkC8APg2cAjgDOS3A38BHjBtG1cleQK4Abgq8DFI3wKkqQexq6AAKrqWdPuesO0219gMDqavt6RU6ZPnvNgkqQ5M4674CRJi4AFJElqwgKSJDVhAUmSmrCAJElNWECSpCYsIElSExaQJKmJsfwgaisr91nK5JrVrWNI0qLgCEiS1IQFJElqwgKSJDVhAUmSmrCAJElNWECSpCYsIElSExaQJKkJC0iS1IQFJElqwgKSJDVhAUmSmrCAJElNWECSpCYsIElSExaQJKkJC0iS1IQFJElqwgKSJDVhAUmSmrCAJElNWECSpCYsIElSExaQJKkJC0iS1IQFJElqYknrAONk462bmDh9XesY0k/dvGZ16wjS0DgCkiQ1YQFJkpqwgCRJTVhAkqQmLCBJUhMWkCSpCQtIktSEBSRJasICkiQ1YQFJkpoY+wJK8uIku7fOIUmaW2NfQMCLge0qoCQ7DSmLJGmODK2AkkwkuT7JO5Jcm+QTSXZLsl+SjyfZkOS/kzwqyZIklyU5slv3tUn+JskfA78ArE+yvpv35CSXJLk8yQeTPLC7/+Ykr0tyOfD0JM/vtnlVkg87ipKk8TLsEdAK4C1V9Wjge8DxwFrgRVX1K8CfAWdW1V3AycBbkxwNHAO8qqreCHwNOKqqjkqyHHgZcHRVHQJMAi+Z8ni3VdUhVfUB4NyqOrSqDgKuB547U8AkpyaZTDK5+c5Nc/8TkCTNaNhfx/Clqrqym94ATACHAR9MsmWZXQCq6tok7wf+E3h8Vf14hu09DjgAuLhbf2fgkinzz5kyfWCS1wDLgAcC588UsKrWMihFdtl7RW3n85Mk7aBhF9CPpkxvBvYCvldVB29l+ZUMRkoP3sr8AP9VVc/cyvw7pkyfBfxmVV2V5GTgyJ6ZJUkjMOqTEL4PfCnJ0wEycFA3/dvAzwJHAG9Ksqxb53Zgj276UuDXkjyiW+cBSfbfymPtAXw9yf2Bk4bybCRJO6zFWXAnAc9NchVwLXBcd2xnDfC8qvo88GbgDd3ya4GPJ1lfVd9icKzo7CRXM9j99qitPM5fAZ8FLgZuGNaTkSTtmFR52GOLXfZeUXv/3utbx5B+yq/k1nyQZENVrdre9XqNgJKcm2R1kvnwuSFJ0jzQt1DOBJ4F/E+SNUkeOcRMkqRFoFcBVdUFVXUScAhwM3BBks8kOaU7yC9J0nbpvUstyc8xOAHgecAVDE4SOAT4r6EkkyQtaL0+B5Tk34BHAu8HnlpVX+9mnZNkcljhJEkLV98Por6xqtbPNGNHznyQJKlXAVXV+iSHMbiUzpIp979vSLkkSQtc311w7wf2A65kcEkdgAIWVAGt3Gcpk37uQpJGou8uuFXAAeWnViVJc6TvWXDXAD8/zCCSpMWl7whoOXBdks8x5QrXVfW0oaSSJC14fQvolcMMIUlafPqeBXfhsINIkhaXvhcjfVySy5L8IMmPk2xO8v1hh5MkLVx9T0J4M/BM4H+A3RhcjuctwwolSVr4el8LrqpuAnaqqs1V9R7gmOHFkiQtdH1PQrgzyc7AlUn+Dvg6bb5NVZK0QPQtked0y/4RcAfwUOD4YYWSJC18fc+C+3I3ApoAzgVurKofDzOYJGlh63stuNXA24AvAAH2TfIHVfWxYYaTJC1cfY8B/QNwVHciAkn2A9YBFpAkaYf0PQZ0+5by6XwRuH0IeSRJi0TfEdBkko8C/8rgaxieDlyW5LcBqurcIeWTJC1QfQtoV+AbwBO7299i8IHUpzIoJAtIkrRd+p4Fd8qwg0iSFpe+Z8HtC7yI+34lt1/HIEnaIX13wX0EeBfwH8Ddw4sjSVos+hbQD6vqjUNNIklaVPoW0BuSvAL4BPf+RtTLh5JKkrTg9S2glQyuB/fr3LMLrrrbkiRtt74F9HTg4V7/TZI0V/peCeEaYNkwg0iSFpe+I6BlwA1JLuPex4A8DVuStEP6FtArhppCkrTo9L0SwoVJ9gIO7e76XFV9c3ixJEkLXd8rITwDOAP4NIPvA3pTktOq6kNDzDZyG2/dxMTp61rH0Dxz85rVrSNI81LfXXAvBQ7dMupJsidwAbCgCkiSNDp9z4K737Rdbrdtx7qSJN1H3xHQx5OcD5zd3T4R+OhwIkmSFoNtFlCSRwB7VdVp3ZfPHd7NugT452GHkyQtXLONgF4P/CX89FtPzwVIsrKb99ShppMkLVizHcfZq6o2Tr+zu29iKIkkSYvCbAW0rcvv7DaXQSRJi8tsBTSZ5PnT70zyPGDDcCJJkhaD2Y4BvRj4tyQncU/hrAJ2Bn5rmMEkSQvbNguoqr4BHJbkKODA7u51VfWpoSfbAUleDVxUVRe0ziJJ2ra+14JbD6wfcpb/t6p6eesMkqR+5uXVDJJMJLk+yTuSXJvkE0l2S3JWkhO6ZZ6U5IokG5O8O8kurXNLku4xLwuoswJ4S1U9GvgecPyWGUl2Bc4CTqyqlQxGei+YaSNJTk0ymWRy852bhp9akgTM7wL6UlVd2U1v4N6fS3pkN//z3e33AkfMtJGqWltVq6pq1U67Lx1aWEnSvc3nAvrRlOnN9L+unSRpDMznAtqWG4GJ7lp2AM8BLmyYR5I0zYIsoKr6IXAK8MEkG4G7gbe1TSVJmmpe7raqqpu553NJVNXfz7DMJ4HHjDCWJGk7LMgRkCRp/FlAkqQmLCBJUhMWkCSpCQtIktSEBSRJasICkiQ1YQFJkpqYlx9EHZaV+yxlcs3q1jEkaVFwBCRJasICkiQ1YQFJkpqwgCRJTVhAkqQmLCBJUhMWkCSpCQtIktSEBSRJasICkiQ1YQFJkpqwgCRJTVhAkqQmLCBJUhMWkCSpCQtIktSEBSRJasICkiQ1YQFJkpqwgCRJTVhAkqQmLCBJUhMWkCSpCQtIktSEBSRJasICkiQ1YQFNsfHWTUycvq51DElaFCwgSVITFpAkqQkLSJLUhAUkSWrCApIkNWEBSZKasIAkSU1YQJKkJiwgSVITIy+gJMuSvHCOt3lwkmPncpuSpOFqMQJaBsxpAQEHAxaQJM0jLQpoDbBfkiuTnNH9uybJxiQnAiR5X5Lf3LJCkn9OclySXZO8p1v2iiRHJdkZeDVwYrfNE5M8Nskl3TKfSfLIBs9TkrQNLQrodOALVXUwcCmD0ctBwNHAGUn2Bt4FnAyQZClwGLAO+EOgqmol8EzgvQyew8uBc6rq4Ko6B7gBeEJVPaab97eje3qSpD6WNH78w4Gzq2oz8I0kFwKHVtV5Sc5MsidwPPDhqroryeHAmwCq6oYkXwb2n2G7S4H3JlkBFHD/rQVIcipwKsBOD9pzLp+bJGkbxvksuPcBzwZOAd69nev+NbC+qg4EngrsurUFq2ptVa2qqlU77b50h8NKkrZPiwK6Hdijm/5vBsdudupGO0cAn+vmnQW8GKCqrpuy/EkASfYHHgbcOG2bMBgB3dpNnzyMJyFJ+v8ZeQFV1W3AxUmuAR4PXA1cBXwK+POq+t9uuW8A1wPvmbL6mcD9kmwEzgFOrqofAeuBA7achAD8HfDaJFfQfjejJGkGTf5zrqpnTbvrtOnLJNkdWAGcPWW9HzLYJTd9e98BDp1299RjQy/b4bCSpKEYy2NASY5mMPp5U1Vtap1HkjT3xnL3VFVdAPxi6xySpOEZyxGQJGnhs4AkSU1YQJKkJiwgSVITFpAkqQkLSJLUhAU0xcp9lnLzmtWtY0jSomABSZKasIAkSU1YQJKkJiwgSVITFpAkqQkLSJLUhAUkSWrCApIkNWEBSZKasIAkSU1YQJKkJiwgSVITFpAkqYlUVesMYyPJ7cCNrXPMYjnw7dYhejDn3DLn3JkPGWF+5XxAVe25vSsuGUKY+ezGqlrVOsS2JJkc94xgzrlmzrkzHzLCvMs5sSPrugtOktSEBSRJasICure1rQP0MB8ygjnnmjnnznzICIsgpychSJKacAQkSWrCApIkNbHoCijJMUluTHJTktNnmL9LknO6+Z9NMjH6lL1yviTJdUmuTvLJJL84jjmnLHd8kkrS5LTSPjmTPKP7mV6b5F9GnbHLMNvv/WFJ1ie5ovvdH9sg47uTfDPJNVuZnyRv7J7D1UkOGXXGLsdsOU/q8m1M8pkkB41bxinLHZrkriQnjCrbtMefNWeSI5Nc2b1+Luy14apaNP+AnYAvAA8HdgauAg6YtswLgbd1078DnDOmOY8Cdu+mXzCuObvl9gAuAi4FVo1jTmAFcAXwM93tB49pzrXAC7rpA4CbG+Q8AjgEuGYr848FPgYEeBzw2VFn7JnzsCm/76e0yDlbxil/F58CPgqcMKY/y2XAdcDDutu9Xj+LbQT0WOCmqvpiVf0Y+ABw3LRljgPe201/CHhSkowwI/TIWVXrq+rO7ualwENGnBH6/TwB/hp4HfDDUYabok/O5wNvqarvAlTVN0ecEfrlLOBB3fRS4GsjzDcIUHUR8J1tLHIc8L4auBRYlmTv0aS7x2w5q+ozW37fNHoN9fhZArwI+DDQ4m8S6JXzWcC5VfWVbvleWRdbAe0DfHXK7Vu6+2ZcpqruAjYBPzeSdDNk6MyUc6rnMnjHOWqz5ux2vzy0qtaNMtg0fX6e+wP7J7k4yaVJjhlZunv0yflK4NlJbmHwjvhFo4m2Xbb373cctHoNbVOSfYDfAt7aOsss9gd+Jsmnk2xI8rt9VvJSPPNckmcDq4Ants4yXZL7Af8InNw4Sh9LGOyGO5LBO+GLkqysqu81TXVfzwTOqqp/SPJ44P1JDqyqu1sHm6+SHMWggA5vnWUGrwf+oqruHv2OmO2yBPgV4EnAbsAlSS6tqs/PttJicivw0Cm3H9LdN9MytyRZwmA3x22jiXefDFvMlJMkRwMvBZ5YVT8aUbapZsu5B3Ag8OnuxfPzwHlJnlZVkyNL2e/neQuDYwA/Ab6U5PMMCumy0UQE+uV8LnAMQFVdkmRXBheDbLZ7Zga9/n7HQZJfBt4JPKWqRv0672MV8IHu9bMcODbJXVX1kbax7uMW4LaqugO4I8lFwEHANgtose2CuwxYkWTfJDszOMngvGnLnAf8Xjd9AvCp6o6qjdCsOZM8Bng78LRGxytglpxVtamqllfVRA0uVngpg7yjLJ9Zc3Y+wmD0Q5LlDHYpfHGUIemX8ysM3mWS5JeAXYFvjTTl7M4Dfrc7G+5xwKaq+nrrUNMleRhwLvCc2d6pt1JV+055/XwIeOEYlg/AvwOHJ1mSZHfgV4HrZ1tpUY2AququJH8EnM/gzJJ3V9W1SV4NTFbVecC7GOzWuInBQbffGdOcZwAPBD7YvTv6SlU9bQxzNtcz5/nAk5NcB2wGThv1O+KeOf8UeEeSP2FwQsLJo36DlORsBmW9vDsW9Qrg/t1zeBuDY1PHAjcBdwKnjDLfduR8OYPju2d2r6G7asRXn+6RcSzMlrOqrk/yceBq4G7gnVW1zVPLwUvxSJIaWWy74CRJY8ICkiQ1YQFJkpqwgCRJTVhAkqQmLCBJUhMWkCSpif8DcRIwdEO2jQ4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"needs_background": "light"
}
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"df_filter.groupby(['Company'])['Cosim_Weighted_Sentiment'].sum().sort_values().plot.barh()"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 282
},
"id": "RUHr4iBFUYSG",
"outputId": "25a2fc00-6fc7-43ce-a40e-76760d8fd69f"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f24ca51ad50>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 87
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"image/png": 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\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"needs_background": "light"
}
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
""
],
"metadata": {
"id": "mj2t0TA_UYOB"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
""
],
"metadata": {
"id": "AklWtx5JaNiu"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
}
]
}
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