How dangerous are earthquakes to SF residents? My best guess is that we get an extra 15 micromorts per year. That’s a 3% increase over the non-natural causes mortality base rate in the US.
Each year has about a 1/500 chance of a massive 7.9 magnitude earthquake that kills ~6000 people. SF has 800k people.
(1/500) * (6000/800000) * 1000000 = 15 micromorts/year
Yearly all non-natural causes mortality in the US is 580 micromorts / year
15 / 580 = 2.6% increase in mortality rate
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