This pipeline turns market data and probabilistic forecasts into executable orders by fusing rating inputs, Monte Carlo simulations, and Kalshi order book intelligence into a single automated run.
- Assemble Inputs – Pull team power ratings, load the win distribution tables published by Inpredict NFL to anchor game-level priors, and ingest the latest Kalshi win-total, exact-win, and futures order books.
- Run Season Simulations –
nfl/scripts/bash/simulate_win_totals_and_exact_wins_and_futuresruns a league-wide Monte Carlo that samples the Inpredict odds, applies custom tie-breaker logic for division and conference standings, and stores outcome frequencies for every team and market tenor. - Summarize Outputs – The simulator exports distributions for season win totals, exact win counts, and futures probabilities, which become the quantitative inputs for pricing edges against Kalshi markets.
- Refresh Position State – `scrip