A simple linear function used to emulate accumulative ticks during a day ( 6am-6am). Code outputs two values +30% and the estimated ticks water marks. This is by first ruby code :)

tick_eumlator.rb

#!/usr/bin/env ruby
#
#  The idea here is, tick is almost a linear function.  We really want a
#  tick_function and compare based on time of day, but this will do for now.
#
#    We can almost determine the typical linear increase of errors 
#     based on time of day.  So here we assume that the linear starts
#     at 6am and increases until 6am the next day.
#
#     NB:  One flaw is that the values are less relevant before noon :} 
#          *** BUT this is much better than a static number ***


max_tick_per_day=600
day_in_seconds=86400
warn_percent=1.30
	# get the time
	now = Time.new
	#
	#  Define the day as starting from 6am
	today=Time.local(now.year, now.month, now.day, 6, 0).to_i
	#  Define tomorrw as staring as 6am
	tomorrow=today + day_in_seconds




#########################################################################
#
# Calculate ticks ( we could pass a value once a tick_function has been devised )
#
#  My theory for future incarnations of this script
#    If we get a big spike the same increase should still apply so...
# 
#   take the "current ticks" minus "what it should be"  should give you an offset...
#     So, then we offset the "max_tick_per_day" by this differance PLUS 10% to be sure
#	add_offset_to_tick() = what_is_tick_now()  - what_tick_should_be()
#
	max_tick_per_sec=( max_tick_per_day.to_f  / day_in_seconds.to_f )
	what_tick_should_be= ( max_tick_per_sec.to_f * ( now - today ).to_f ) + 10 
	warning=what_tick_should_be / warn_percent
	puts "#{what_tick_should_be.to_i} #{warning.to_i}"