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@CennoxX
Last active October 30, 2025 11:31
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diff ... TTR difference between players
P(diff) ... winning probability in percent
exact winning chance
P = 1 / (1+10^(diff/150))
rule of thumb for winning chance
if (diff =< 50)
P = 50 + 4 × (diff ÷ 10)
else
P = 50 + 4 × (50 ÷ 10) + 2 × ((diff - 50) ÷ 10)
P = 50 + 20 + 2 × ((diff - 50) ÷ 10)
P = 70 + 2 × ((diff - 50) ÷ 10)
examples
TTR 1020 vs. 1000
diff = 20
50 + 4 × (20 ÷ 10) = 58 %
TTR 1070 vs. 1000
diff = 70
50 + 4 × (50 ÷ 10) + 2 × ((70-50) ÷ 10) = 74 %
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