gistfile1.txt

df_nest<-day%>%
  dplyr::select(date_interval,location_identification, egg_count)%>%
  group_by(location_identification)%>%
  filter(!location_identification%in%c(4))%>%
  nest()
df_ts<-df_nest%>%mutate(data.ts = map(.x       = data, 
                              .f       = tk_ts, 
                              select   = -date_interval, 
                              start    = 2021,
                              freq     = 12))
df_ts_fit<-df_ts%>%mutate(fit.ets = map(data.ts, ets))
df_ts_fit %>%
  mutate(tidy = map(fit.ets, sw_tidy)) %>%
  unnest(tidy) %>%
  spread(key = location_identification, value = estimate)
df_ts_fit %>%
  mutate(glance = map(fit.ets, sw_glance)) %>%
  unnest(glance)
augment_fit_ets <- df_ts_fit %>%
  mutate(augment = map(fit.ets, 
                       sw_augment, 
                       timetk_idx = TRUE, 
                       rename_index = "date")) %>%
  unnest(augment)

augment_fit_ets %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = date, y = .resid, group = location_identification)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "grey40") +
  geom_line() +
  geom_smooth(method = "loess") +
  labs(title = "Eggs produced By Location",
       subtitle = "ETS Model Residuals", x = "") + 
  theme_bw() +
  facet_wrap(~ location_identification, scale = "free", ncol = 3) 

df_ts_fit%>%
  mutate(decomp = map(fit.ets, 
                      sw_tidy_decomp, 
                      timetk_idx = TRUE, rename_index = "date")) %>%
  unnest(decomp)

df_ts_fcast <- df_ts_fit%>%
  mutate(fcast.ets = map(fit.ets, forecast, h = 12)); df_ts_fcast
df_ts_fcast_tidy <- df_ts_fcast %>%
  mutate(sweep = map(fcast.ets, sw_sweep, fitted = FALSE, timetk_idx = TRUE)) %>%
  unnest(sweep); df_ts_fcast_tidy
df_ts_fcast_tidy  %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = index, 
             y = value, 
             color = key, 
             group = location_identification)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lo.95, ymax = hi.95), 
              fill = "#D5DBFF", color = NA, size = 0) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lo.80, ymax = hi.80, fill = key), 
              fill = "#596DD5", color = NA, size = 0, alpha = 0.8) +
  geom_line() +
  labs(title = "Eggs produced By Location",
       subtitle = "ETS Model Forecasts",
       x = "", y = "Units") +
  facet_wrap(~location_identification, 
             scales = "free", 
             ncol = 3) +
  theme_bw() +
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))