gistfile1.txt

tsdat<-day%>%
  filter(location_identification==1)%>%
  mutate(egg_count = zoo::na.aggregate(egg_count))%>%
  dplyr::select(egg_count, date_interval)
tsdat<-xts(tsdat$egg_count, order.by=as.Date(tsdat$date_interval))
soliq_arimax = auto.arima(tsdat, 
                          seasonal= TRUE,
                          stepwise=FALSE,
                          approximation=FALSE, 
                          allowdrift = TRUE,
                          allowmean = TRUE, 
                          parallel=TRUE, 
                          num.cores=8)
ggfortify::ggtsdiag(soliq_arimax , gof.lag = 14)+theme_bw()
myforecasts <- forecast::forecast(soliq_arimax, 
                                  bootstrap=TRUE, 
                                  npaths=1000, 
                                  h=100)
autoplot(myforecasts) + 
  theme_bw()
forecasteggs<-fortify(myforecasts, 
                      is.Date=TRUE,
                      ts.connect=TRUE)
ggplot(forecasteggs,aes(x=Index)) + 
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=`Lo 80`, ymax=`Hi 80`, fill="80 CI"), alpha=0.8)+
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=`Lo 95`, ymax=`Hi 95`, fill="95 CI"), alpha=0.5)+  
  geom_line(aes(y=Data ,               color="original"),size=0.5) + 
  geom_line(aes(y=Fitted ,             color="fitted"),size=0.5, lty=2) + 
  geom_line(aes(y=`Point Forecast` ,   color="forecast"),size=1, lty=2) + 
  scale_color_manual(values = c('original'   = 'grey', 
                                'fitted'     = 'darkblue',
                                'forecast'   = 'purple')) + 
  scale_fill_manual(values = c( '80 CI'      = 'red', 
                                '95 CI'      = 'orange')) + 
  labs(x="Date", y="Eggs", color = 'Trend fit', fill="Confidence") +  
  ggtitle("ARIMA forecast for Eggs") +
  theme_bw()
## UPLOAD to Blob 
folder<-getwd()
name="/forecast.csv"
write.csv(forecasteggs,paste0(folder,name), row.names=FALSE)
bl_endp_key <- storage_endpoint("https://xxxxxx.blob.core.windows.net", 
                                key="xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx")
list_storage_containers(bl_endp_key)
cont <- storage_container(bl_endp_key, "xxxx")
storage_multiupload(cont, src=paste0(folder,name))