gistfile1.txt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GquJWqNvEPw

Why does the 3rd world need longer to catch up?
- widespread internet use
- great democratisation of education taking place in the 3rd world (MOOC) 
- 35$ notebook, down to 10$ within 2 years
- 3d printing of clothing
- educational system must change -> prices of higher education are way too high. industry must be transformed and equalised.
- cultures must adept as well

How have his goals changed during the last 30 years
- began thinking about technology 30 years ago
- it took Ray a decade to ‘grasp’ the implications of exponential technologies
- devoted himself to spread the word
   x business must wake up and leverage the full potential
   x human creative potential must be maximised
   x we must understand potential of exponential thinking intellectually
- ideas are much more mainstream now.

Problem-driven approach to create new things

Have you had a personal experience where the solution was not obvious when you developed a technology?
- Character recognition. They had it but no idea what it was good for.
- Guy on plane explained how ‘blindness’ was not a handicap. Except for reading -> Solution
  x Its obviously expensive to hire someone who reads for a blind dude
- But: Better approach is to focus on the problem. Not on the technology. 
  x You need an application. 

Is there something that will never happen?
- Better than Watson on Google Scale (10M pages, 10M books etc…)
- By 2029 it will read beyond human level. (100M pages,…)
- But even that is not downloading 1 humans brain
- .. but that will be possible in 2040
- Flying Vehicle, Nanotechnology, ~2030..
- well.. AI could take Napoleons DNA, fotos, letters etc. and create an Avatar that passes the Frederik-Kurzweil-Turing Test. But it would not be able to duplicate him. But could become close. Closer the more you know.
- Teleportation …. (maybe TeraHertz scanning…)
- Back in Time … Forward travelling should be possible by travelling close to the speed of light. Back in time. Probably not possible. 
- Capture and Reinstate Brains - 2040

What exponential learning experiences/ecosystems that you had as an child have made you the dude you are now?
- Universal education that doesn’t prevent enlightenment. 
- Learned all about religions during school -> Looked for common themes
- Idea that there are different perspectives and they can all be true.
- Family would come together once a week and discuss those stuff and they included the children
- Lots of construction toys (broken radios, broken stuff.. 5 years old)
- Idea of Demo: You do something, and people are amazed!!!!
- Technology - Better form of magic. ‘Magic of it’ doesn't go away once you know it works
Demo is like presenting a play. Think about the DRAMA! Think about the sequence! A demo must create a certain magic.
Encourage kids to be creative. Teach programming as early as possible.
We need to bring Entrepreneurship into school
- Kids need to understand the concepts. They need to see purpose. Not blindly learning rules.

How does time-forward travel work?
- Einsteins thought experiment. He sticked with the results of this experiment when doing his research. 

Relation Free-Will/Determinism
- Different schools of thought. Some think they are incompatible. Some they are not.
- Ray uses argument from […]: The next states of the cells is a function of the cells current state. This function is based on computation and natural phenomena. 
There is thus an answer. But you can’t compute it. We can’t predict our decisions given the complexity of the brain. Its determined but unknowable.

<unknown question>
- will paper eat cloned meat? percentage have been drifting up… it will a marketing challenge
  -> not so easy to predict
- analysis of all predictions of Ray: 86% correct. 
  x Self driving cars prediction was wrong
  x Difficult if you cant solely predict on the Law of accelerating returns

Whats next for Ray?
- his project: Create AI that passes the Turing pass by superior NLP. Because language represents all of human knowledge.
  x computers don’t understand text yet. 
  x Watson like system but better. 
  x Model in a hierarchical fashion all of human knowledge and answer questions. But in a really sophisticated manner.
  x Understand the user. Understand You. -> Give tips to the user.
  x Google glass generation 3,4,5 will have the right interface and become mainstream
  x AI will just pop up information automatically. Because its listening in into what you are doing. 
  x Move search from understanding keywords to understanding concepts
  => COMES IN 2029 :-)
- New book. Larry Page has early version -> Team at Google.
- SingularityU

Based on Noam Chomsky had debate with Peter Norvig: Is statistical learning enough to understand NLP? 
- Chomsky doesn’t really understand AI and statistical learning. He said Watson is just a piece of iron
- Humans use something like Hierarchical Markov Models
- Google uses quite simple statistical models at the moment. Increasing dataset doesn’t improve it anymore. They fundamentally need to go to a different level of understanding.

Can you mention 3 things that were better 50 years ago
- Air quality
- Families staying together
- Less stress

But:
Air quality - Slingshot machine can cleanup water. Solar energy. Decentralised energy solutions. Inexpensively. We will cleanup the air.
Virtual Reality - Visit loved one even when we are far away from each other. Soon it will be fully emergent and you wont feel a big distance.

Can exponential technology solve the inequality problem?
- people being hungry, in pain is moving in the right direction
- there are 7(0?)B cellphones in the world today. 1/2 of african peoples have one
- world in total is getting healthier.
- massive poverty in Asia is almost gone
- growth rate in Africa is higher than by us. 
- … so it will work out for them. We are not there yet though. 
- 3d printing will print clothes
- MOOC education coming everywhere
- technologies only affordable by rich won’t work
- The open-source market will bring a high quality of life standard to everyone. (e.g. Open-source information)
- There is a very rapid reduction of poverty in the world. Trends are going into the right direction.

How do you think structures of this world will change?
- Old institutes won’t go away (religious e.g.) but will loose power
- National boundaries won’t go away but everything gets more interconnected
- Political decision making will become more crowdsourced (Facebook etc.) => New type of decision making
- Companies are totally dependent on the user. Which is very empowered and knowledgeable. Wisdom of Crowd

<unknown question>
- a lot of scientific insight about the future comes from Fiction.
- artistry is becoming very important for industrial design (Apple)
- lots of apps are successful because they bring music and art to an audience
- not everyone has to be an scientist or engineer. technology is empowering artists.

Future of food
- revolution of agriculture. Ai controlled food-growing buildings
- There is no reason to grow a whole animal. Clone cells to develop muscle tissue
- Factory farming and animal suffering will stop
- Printing food
- Nanobots will help us so that we don’t have to eat anymore. They’ll even remove the toxics. 
- Eating will take place in VR when we can stimulate the neurological system.

Will robots kill all jobs?
- consumption will go up
- greater efficiency 
- greater wealth
- nearly all jobs are Information Based at the moment. 
- More people are working now. Pays 10 times as much as back in the days.
- We invest much more in education to keep up with the rising skill level.
- But: Computers will become more smarter than everyone else?
  But again: We can merge with computers… We can enhance ourselves with technology.
- Smartphones will go into our brains. A gateway into the cloud. 
- We will merge with non-biological intelligence. 
- We will become the computers. The robots. We will become a hybrid.
- But whole economy will be transformed.