bev_curve_shift.R

library(tidyverse)
library(readabs)

vac_raw <- read_abs_series("A85389466F")

ur_raw <- read_abs_series("A84423050A")

ur <- ur_raw |> 
  mutate(value = slider::slide_mean(value, before = 2L)) |> 
  select(date, ur = value)

df_wide <- vac_raw |> 
  select(date, vac = value) |> 
  left_join(ur, by = "date") |> 
  mutate(period = if_else(date < ymd("2020-03-01"),
                          "Pre-pandemic",
                          "Pandemic")) |> 
  filter(!is.na(vac))

pre_covid_mod <- df_wide |> 
  filter(period == "Pre-pandemic") |> 
  lm(vac ~ ur + I(ur ^ 2), data = _)

latest <- df_wide |> 
  filter(date == max(date))

latest_predicted <- predict(pre_covid_mod, newdata = latest)

y_offset <- latest$vac - latest_predicted

add_perc <- function(x) paste0(x, "%")

df_wide |> 
  ggplot(aes(x = ur, 
             y = vac, 
             col = period)) +
  geom_smooth(data = ~filter(., period == "Pre-pandemic"),
              method = "lm",
              se = FALSE,
              fullrange = T,
              formula = y ~ x + I(x ^ 2)) +
  geom_smooth(data = ~filter(., period == "Pre-pandemic"),
              method = "lm",
              se = FALSE,
              linetype = 2,
              fullrange = T,
              aes(y = vac + y_offset),
              formula = y ~ x + I(x ^ 2)) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_point(data = latest,
             colour = "black",
             size = 3) +
  geom_text(data = latest,
            aes(label = format(date, "%B %Y")),
            colour = "black",
            hjust = 0,
            family = "Roboto Condensed",
            nudge_x = 0.25) +
  hrbrthemes::theme_ipsum_rc() +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = add_perc,
                     expand = expansion(0),
                     limits = \(x) c(0, max(5, x[2]))) +
  scale_x_continuous(labels = add_perc,
                     limits = c(0, 10),
                     expand = expansion(0),
                     breaks = seq(0, 10, 2)) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.9, 0.9),
        legend.title = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.minor = element_blank()) +
  labs(x = "Unemployment rate",
       y = "Vacany rate")

ggsave("bev_mong.png",
       bg = "white",
       width = 16,
       height = 12,
       units = "cm")