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Prompt:

undefined

Response:

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Prompt:

trump is the gop nominee for president. biden is the dem nominee. i know you have limited information and no real time info, but given what you know, what chance would you give to trump winning? think through how youd give a probabilistic forecast

Response:

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis / gist:113b800695462a55ed577df77de3564d
Created March 18, 2023 04:06
ChatGPT4 React suggestion for policy impact written template
import React from 'react';
const PolicyAnalysis = ({ baseline, reform, impacts, outcomes, incomeChanges, povertyRates, deepPovertyRates, genderPoverty, inequality }) => {
const generateIncomeChangeText = () => {
let text = "";
incomeChanges.average.forEach((value, index) => {
text += `The ${index + 1}${index === 0 ? "st" : index === 1 ? "nd" : index === 2 ? "rd" : "th"} decile experiences an average change of $${value.toFixed(2)}. `;
});
return text;
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis / gist:1c6ffca799ee526c70092ea6b3c33a89
Created November 14, 2022 21:21
CDSS director Kim Johnson's response on categorical eligibility, administrative burdens, and welfare cliffs
[Grecia Marquez-Nieblas] 13:13:12
So we have one more question here. It says on one hand, categorical, eligibility reduces administrative burdens on the other, it exasperates benefit cliffs.
[Grecia Marquez-Nieblas] 13:13:23
How do you weigh these effects?
[Kim Johnson] 13:13:25
It's it's a great. It's a great question, I mean, I think again benefit cliffs.
[Kim Johnson] 13:13:31
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis / transcript.txt
Created November 14, 2022 21:11
CDSS director Kim Johnson's response to question on how much time Californians spend dealing with benefit programs
[Grecia Marquez-Nieblas] 13:05:37
a question here. It says how much time does it take for participating Californians to apply for and comply with benefit programs every year?
[Grecia Marquez-Nieblas] 13:05:47
How is this trending
[Kim Johnson] 13:05:49
How much time is that? What the question was
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis / openfisca-us-tutorial.ipynb
Created March 7, 2022 06:49
OpenFisca US tutorial.ipynb
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@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis / openfisca-us-demo.ipynb
Created March 6, 2022 06:11
OpenFisca US demo.ipynb
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Delivered-To: [email protected]
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MaxGhenis / gist:7b748a2cb4aa65e9ef3b2141e0e6c84a
Last active January 8, 2022 04:03
Threaded email header 1
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MaxGhenis / gist:3117dac6f90b2c96ce98b757811f22a4
Created January 6, 2022 06:07
Error when running `make test` on an OpenFisca system with a parameter named `children.yaml`
py37) maxghenis@Maxs-MacBook-Pro openfisca-uk % make test
openfisca test -c openfisca_uk openfisca_uk/tests/policy/baseline
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/Users/maxghenis/opt/anaconda3/envs/py37/bin/openfisca", line 8, in <module>
sys.exit(main())
File "/Users/maxghenis/opt/anaconda3/envs/py37/lib/python3.7/site-packages/openfisca_core/scripts/openfisca_command.py", line 68, in main
return sys.exit(main(parser))
File "/Users/maxghenis/opt/anaconda3/envs/py37/lib/python3.7/site-packages/openfisca_core/scripts/run_test.py", line 15, in main
tax_benefit_system = build_tax_benefit_system(args.country_package, args.extensions, args.reforms)
File "/Users/maxghenis/opt/anaconda3/envs/py37/lib/python3.7/site-packages/openfisca_core/scripts/__init__.py", line 24, in build_tax_benefit_system
Basic rate Additional rate Cost Poverty reduction Benefit to bottom decile Benefit to top decile
20% 40% £1.3bn 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
19% 45% £4.4bn 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
19% 40% £5.7bn 0.2% 0.0% 1.2%
18% 45% £8.8bn 0.3% 0.1% 1.1%
18% 40% £10.1bn 0.3% 0.1% 1.7%