monte_carlo.py

import random

def num_in_team(ar, team_num):
    c = sum(ar[5 * team_num: 5 * team_num + 5])
    return c

def good(ss, gs):
    ret = True
    for t in xrange(6):
      if num_in_team(ss, t) < 4: ret = False
    for t in xrange(6,13):
      if num_in_team(ss, t) < 3: ret = False
    for t in xrange(13,18):
      if num_in_team(ss, t) < 2: ret = False
    for t in xrange(18):
      if num_in_team(gs, t) == 0: ret = False
    return ret

def add_cards(num, ar, refund):
     ref = 0
     for _ in xrange(num):
        idx = random.randint(0, 89)
        if ar[idx] == 1:
          ref += refund
        else:
          ar[idx] = 1
     return ref


premium = 1
N = 10000
dust, it = 0, 0
for n in xrange(N):
    # array of players, in sets of 5 from favourite to least favourite team
    ss, gs = [0] * 90, [0] * 90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
    while not good(ss, gs):                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
       it += 1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
       if premium:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
         dust += 50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
         dust -= add_cards(4, ss, 2)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
         dust -= add_cards(1, gs, 5)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
       else:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
         dust += 6 # you refund the commons immediately                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
         if random.random() > 0.9:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
           dust -= add_cards(1, gs, 5)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
         else:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
           dust -= add_cards(1, ss, 2)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
print float(dust) / N, float(it) / N