20250119 nhl player goal droughts.R

# --
library(tidyverse)
library(ggpattern)

# -- Motivation: 
# https://x.com/joedgallagher/status/1436300186188386307

df2 <- read_csv("Downloads/shots_2024 3.csv") %>% 
  janitor::clean_names()


top_scorers <- df2 %>% 
  filter(goal == 1) %>% 
  count(shooter_name, sort = T) %>% 
  slice(1:9) %>% select(1)
#  1 Leon Draisaitl      31
#  2 Brayden Point       25
#  3 Mikko Rantanen      25
#  4 William Nylander    24
#  5 Kirill Kaprizov     23
#  6 Kyle Connor         23
#  7 Mark Scheifele      23
#  8 Sam Reinhart        23
#  9 Cole Caufield       22
# 10 Jake Guentzel       21

df_goal_spell <- 
  df2 %>% 
  # filter(shooter_name %in% c("Tomas Hertl", "Mikko Rantanen")) %>% 
  inner_join(top_scorers) %>% 
  select(
    shooter_name, 
    id, 
    game_id, 
    xg = x_goal, 
    goal
  ) %>% 
  arrange(game_id, id) %>% 
  group_by(shooter_name) %>% 
  mutate(shooter_id = row_number(), 
         goal_spell = cumsum(goal), 
         new_xg = if_else(goal == 1, 0, xg)) %>% 
  group_by(shooter_name, goal_spell) %>% 
  mutate(goal_spell_xg = cumsum(xg)) %>% 
  ungroup()


  
  
df_goal_spell_for_viz <-   
  df_goal_spell %>% 
    group_by(shooter_name, goal_spell) %>% 
    filter(min(shooter_id) == shooter_id) %>% 
    mutate(goal_spell_xg = 0, 
           shooter_id = shooter_id - 1) %>% 
    bind_rows(df_goal_spell) %>% 
    arrange(shooter_id)
    # mutate(shooter_spell = str_c(shooter_id, '-', goal_spell))
    
df_goal_spell_for_viz %>%    
  # filter(shooter_name == "William Nylander") %>% 
    ggplot(aes(x = shooter_id, 
               y = goal_spell_xg, 
               group = goal_spell)) + 
    geom_area_pattern(pattern = "gradient", 
                      fill = "yellow",
                      pattern_fill  = "yellow",
                      pattern_fill2 = "red", 
                      pattern_res = 400) +  
  labs(
    x = "Cumulative Shots", 
    y = "Cumulative xG", 
    title = "xG accrued without scoring", 
    subtitle = "NHL 2025", 
    caption = "Created by @OTStats\nData from @MoneyPuck.com"
  ) + 
  scale_y_continuous(expand = c(0, 0)) + 
  # geom_step() +
    # geom_area_pattern(pattern_fill = "red", pattern_fill2 = "yellow") + 
    facet_wrap(.~shooter_name, scales = "free_x")






# ----- attempt for geom_step
df_goal_spell_for_viz %>% 
  group_by(shooter_spell) %>% 
  ggplot(
    # aes(x = shooter_id, 
             # y = goal_spell_xg, 
             # group = goal_spell
        # )
    ) + 
  geom_rect_pattern(aes(
    xmin = min(shooter_id), 
    xmax = max(shooter_id), 
    ymin = 0, ymax = goal_spell_xg, 
    group = shooter_spell
    ), 
    pattern = "gradient", 
                    fill = "yellow",
                    pattern_fill  = "yellow",
                    pattern_fill2 = "red", 
                    pattern_res = 400) + 
    facet_wrap(.~shooter_name, scales = "free_x")
  

# geom_rect(aes(xmin = ctime, xmax = dplyr::lead(ctime), 
#               ymin = n1, ymax = n2), 




#  --- Accidental aRt
df_goal_spell %>% 
  group_by(shooter_name, goal_spell) %>% 
  filter(min(shooter_id) == shooter_id) %>% 
  mutate(goal_spell_xg = 0, 
         shooter_id = shooter_id - 1) %>% 
  bind_rows(df_goal_spell) %>% 
  arrange(shooter_id) %>% 
  mutate(shooter_spell = str_c(shooter_id, '-', goal_spell)) %>% 
  
  
  ggplot(aes(x = shooter_id, 
             y = goal_spell_xg, 
             group = goal_spell, 
             alpha = goal_spell_xg)) + 
  geom_area_pattern(pattern = "gradient", 
                    fill = "yellow",
                    pattern_fill  = "yellow",
                    pattern_fill2 = "red", 
                    pattern_res = 600, 
                    show.legend = "none") + 
  theme_void()
# geom_area_pattern(pattern_fill = "red", pattern_fill2 = "yellow") + 



  

This was originally motivated by a post I saw a few years back from Joe Gallagher (@joedgallagher) on Twitter:

Accidental aRt when I was messing around with the outcome:

Other resources:

• EPL highest scoring droughts
• ggplot2 Create shaded area with gradient below curve
• Creating a vertical color gradient for a geom_bar plot
• Area chart with gradient
• google search