bitcoin_attack.rs

bitcoin_attack.rs

//use std::f64;

/// Calculates the factorial of a non-negative integer 'n'.
/// Returns the result as a floating-point number (f64).
fn factorial(n: u32) -> f64 {
    if n == 0 {
        1.0
    } else {
        // Calculates the product of integers from 1 up to n.
        (1..=n).map(|i| i as f64).product()
    }
}

/// Calculates the probability that the honest network successfully secures a transaction
/// (e.g., against a double-spend attack) given an attacker's hash power and a required
/// number of confirmations. This is often used in Bitcoin security analysis.
/// 
/// The formula is: 
/// $$1 - \sum_{k=0}^{z} \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!} \left(1 - \left(\frac{q}{p}\right)^{(z-k)}\right)$$
///
/// Parameters:
/// - lambda: Mean number of blocks the attacker is expected to control (\lambda).
/// - p: Honest network's fractional hash power ($p$).
/// - q: Attacker's fractional hash power ($q$).
/// - z: Number of confirmations required for the transaction ($z$).
///
/// Returns:
/// The probability that the honest chain secures the transaction, as an f64.
fn calculate_attack_security_probability(lambda: f64, p: f64, q: f64, z: u32) -> f64 {
    if p == 0.0 {
        // Panics if the denominator is zero, as division would be infinite or NaN.
        panic!("Parameter 'p' (Honest Hash Power) cannot be zero.");
    }

    let ratio_qp = q / p;
    let exp_neg_lambda = (-lambda).exp(); // e^{-\lambda}
    let mut sum: f64 = 0.0;

    for k in 0..=z {
        // 1. Poisson Term: P(k; \lambda) - Probability attacker mines exactly k blocks (P_A).
        let lambda_pow_k = lambda.powi(k as i32);
        let k_factorial = factorial(k);
        let poisson_term = (lambda_pow_k * exp_neg_lambda) / k_factorial;

        // 2. Conditional Term: 1 - (q/p)^(z-k) - Probability honest network catches up.
        let exponent = (z - k) as i32;
        let power_term = 1.0 - ratio_qp.powi(exponent);

        // Summation: Sum of P_A * (Probability honest chain wins given P_A)
        sum += poisson_term * power_term;
    }

    // Final result: 1 - (Probability attacker wins)
    1.0 - sum
}

// -------------------------------------------------------------

fn main() {
    // Bitcoin Attack Analysis Example:
    // Parameters for a small-scale attacker aiming for 3 confirmations.
    let lambda = 2.5; // Attacker expects to control 2.5 blocks on average
    let p = 0.6;      // Honest network has 60% hash power
    let q = 0.4;      // Attacker has 40% hash power
    let z = 3;        // Transaction requires 3 confirmations

    let result = calculate_attack_security_probability(lambda, p, q, z);

    println!("--- Bitcoin Attack Security Model ---");
    println!("λ (Attacker Expected Blocks): {}", lambda);
    println!("p (Honest Hash Power): {}", p);
    println!("q (Attacker Hash Power): {}", q);
    println!("z (Confirmations Required): {}", z);
    println!("\nCalculated P(Honest Chain Secures Transaction): {:.8}", result);
    
    // The probability of a successful attack is 1 - result.
    println!("Calculated P(Successful Attack): {:.8}", 1.0 - result); 
}

// -------------------------------------------------------------
// Test Module
// -------------------------------------------------------------

#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
    use super::*;

    // Tolerance for floating-point comparisons (0.00002)
    const EPSILON: f64 = 2e-5; 

    // Helper to check for approximate equality
    fn assert_approx_eq(a: f64, b: f64) {
        assert!((a - b).abs() < EPSILON, "Assertion failed: {} is not close to {}", a, b);
    }
    
    // --- Factorial Tests (Quick check) ---
    
    #[test]
    fn test_factorial_small_values() {
        assert_approx_eq(factorial(0), 1.0);
        assert_approx_eq(factorial(5), 120.0);
    }

    // --- Security Model Tests ---

    #[test]
    // Tests the primary example case (lambda=2.5, p=0.6, q=0.4, z=3)
    fn test_verified_case_1() {
        let lambda = 2.5;
        let p = 0.6;
        let q = 0.4;
        let z = 3;
        // Expected value (Probability Honest Chain Wins)
        let expected = 0.742742; 
        let result = calculate_attack_security_probability(lambda, p, q, z);
        assert_approx_eq(result, expected);
    }

    #[test]
    // Tests a case where q/p = 1.0 (equal hash power). Probability should be 1.0.
    fn test_equal_hash_power() {
        let lambda = 1.0;
        let p = 0.5;
        let q = 0.5;
        let z = 5;
        
        let expected = 1.0; 
        let result = calculate_attack_security_probability(lambda, p, q, z);
        assert_approx_eq(result, expected);
    }

    #[test]
    // Tests a case with a larger z and small attacker power (q/p = 0.111...).
    // Attacker's probability of success should be very low (Honest win high).
    fn test_small_attacker_power() {
        let lambda = 0.5;
        let p = 0.9;
        let q = 0.1;
        let z = 5;

        // Corrected expected value (Probability Honest Chain Wins)
        let expected = 0.00065204; 
        let result = calculate_attack_security_probability(lambda, p, q, z);
        assert_approx_eq(result, expected);
    }

    #[test]
    #[should_panic]
    // Tests the necessary panic when the honest network hash power is zero.
    fn test_panic_on_p_zero() {
        calculate_attack_security_probability(1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1);
    }
}