This is kind of a long and rambling post, but I hope it makes some sense.
First off, a data point that caused this whole ramble. The following graph comes from 100 runs of Yosys and nextpnr on picorv32_large.v from yosys-tests, targeting an iCE40HX8K.
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Obviously, ABC1 resulting in a higher average Fmax than ABC9 is concerning, given that the point of ABC9 is to improve synthesis quality compared to ABC1.
But this got me wondering: how do we actually quantify that a change produces a better maximum frequency?