SoMaCo — AI Datacenter Commodity Intelligence

Supply Chain Divergence · Market Creation · GYST UUID v8 Protocol

THESIS: The AI datacenter build-out is the largest coordinated commodity procurement event since the interstate highway system. Aluminum, copper, and galvanized steel embedded in physical infrastructure are not priced into LME/SHFE/CME futures. Polymarket has zero coverage of this supply chain. First-mover market creation position available across 11 distinct commodity-prediction-market pairs.

Supply Chain Signal Map
Materials Embedded — 100MW Campus
Mathematical Framework
Signal Harvesting Architecture
Cu/Al Substitution Decision Model
GYST UUID v8 Bit Protocol
Market Creation Workflow
Market Lab — UI/UX Specification
Polymarket Draft Markets
Type Code Registry
Implementation Status

1. Supply Chain Signal Map

The AI build-out follows a deterministic procurement sequence. Each handoff is a lead-lag window exploitable as a futures divergence trade or prediction market. Cable tray POs are placed before permits are filed — the earliest externally visible indicator.

flowchart LR
    subgraph SILICON["SILICON LAYER  T+0"]
        GPU["🖥 GPU CHIPS\nTSMC CoWoS · HBM3e\nSi · Cu · Ta · W"]
    end

    subgraph THERMAL["THERMAL LAYER  T+2mo"]
        COOL["❄️ LIQUID COOLING\nTaiwan CDUs\nAl cold plates · HX"]
    end

    subgraph RACK["RACK LAYER  T+4mo"]
        RACKS["📦 AI RACKS 80kW+\nWiwynn · Foxconn FII\nAl extrusion · steel"]
    end

    subgraph PHYSICAL["PHYSICAL LAYER  T+6mo"]
        TRAY["🔧 CABLE TRAY\nLegrand · Schneider\nAl tray OR HDG steel"]
        BUS["⚡ BUSWAY HV\nSiemens · Eaton\nAl or Cu conductor"]
    end

    subgraph LABOR["LABOR LAYER  T+9mo"]
        LV["👷 LV INSTALLERS\nIBEW journeyman\nCu cabling · fiber"]
    end

    subgraph POWER["POWER LAYER  T+12mo"]
        PWR["🔌 POWER / UPS\nEaton · Vertiv · ABB\nCu transformer · Al cap"]
    end

    subgraph FINAL["COMMISSIONED  T+18mo"]
        GO["✅ LIVE\nCX/GX complete"]
    end

    GPU --> COOL --> RACKS --> TRAY & BUS --> LV --> PWR --> GO

    style SILICON  fill:#1a0a2e,stroke:#9977dd,color:#c8d0e8
    style THERMAL  fill:#0a1e2e,stroke:#66cccc,color:#c8d0e8
    style RACK     fill:#1a0a2e,stroke:#9977dd,color:#c8d0e8
    style PHYSICAL fill:#1e1200,stroke:#cc7700,color:#c8d0e8
    style LABOR    fill:#1e1600,stroke:#cc9900,color:#c8d0e8
    style POWER    fill:#1e1600,stroke:#cc9900,color:#c8d0e8
    style FINAL    fill:#0a1e0a,stroke:#10b981,color:#c8d0e8

Lead Time Summary

Layer	Component	Lead Time	Material	LME/Exchange	Polymarket Gap
Silicon	GPU (TSMC CoWoS)	T+0	Si · Cu · Ta	N/A (fab)	Partial coverage
Thermal	Liquid cooling CDUs	T+2mo	Aluminum (plate/HX)	LME Al	Zero coverage
Rack	AI rack 80kW	T+4mo	Al extrusion	LME Al	Zero coverage
Physical	Cable tray	T+6mo ⭐	Al OR HDG steel	LME Al + CME HRC	Zero coverage
Physical	HV busway	T+6mo	Al or Cu	LME Al/Cu	Zero coverage
Labor	LV installers	T+9mo	Cu cabling · fiber	LME Cu	Zero coverage
Power	UPS/PDU	T+12mo	Cu transformer	LME Cu	Zero coverage

⭐ Cable tray is the key signal. POs are placed before construction permits are filed. It is the earliest externally verifiable procurement indicator in the datacenter build sequence.

2. Materials Embedded — 100MW Campus

A single 100MW hyperscaler campus embeds the following primary metals. With 300+ new campuses announced for 2025–2027:

pie title Material Mass in 100MW Hyperscaler Campus (MT)
    "Copper (Cu)" : 1000
    "Aluminum (Al)" : 750
    "Galvanized Steel" : 500
    "Zinc (galvanizing coat)" : 20
    "Other metals" : 30

Per-Metal Breakdown

block-beta
    columns 4

    block:ALU["ALUMINUM\n~600–900 MT\nLME · SHFE"]:1
        A1["Cable tray\n(Al grade)"]
        A2["CDU heat exchangers"]
        A3["Rack frames"]
        A4["GPU heatsinks"]
        A5["Al busway\n(Cu>$10k/ton)"]
        A6["Raised floor tiles"]
    end

    block:COP["COPPER\n~800–1,200 MT\nLME · COMEX"]:1
        C1["MV feeder cables"]
        C2["Cat6A/8 cabling"]
        C3["Cu busway\n(Cu<$10k/ton)"]
        C4["Transformer windings"]
        C5["Grounding"]
        C6["Cooling fittings"]
    end

    block:STL["STEEL (HDG)\n~400–600 MT\nCME HRC + LME Zn"]:1
        S1["Steel cable tray"]
        S2["Unistrut / Mono-Strut"]
        S3["Rack rails"]
        S4["Floor structure"]
        S5["Conduit EMT/rigid"]
        S6["Cable ladder"]
    end

    block:ZNC["ZINC\n~15–25 MT\nLME Zn"]:1
        Z1["HDG coat on steel tray"]
        Z2["Anti-corrosion layer"]
        Z3["Outdoor cable runs"]
    end

Incremental Demand Projection (2025–2027)

Metal	Per Campus	300 campuses	% of 2024 LME volume	Price sensitivity
Aluminum	750 MT	225,000 MT	~0.5% annual	High — extrusion bottleneck
Copper	1,000 MT	300,000 MT	~1.2% annual	Medium — EV demand already priced
Steel (HRC)	500 MT	150,000 MT	~0.02% annual	Low — diversified demand
Zinc	20 MT	6,000 MT	Negligible	Low

Alpha insight: Aluminum extrusion has the tightest supply chain relative to demand increase. Aluminum Extruders Council (AEC) quarterly backlog data lags spot price by ~60 days — tradeable window.

3. Mathematical Framework

3.1 Divergence Z-Score

The core signal for all commodity pairs. Used in the Hormuz harvester and applicable to all metals divergences.

$$z_t = \frac{S_t - \mu_{\tau}}{\sigma_{\tau}}$$

Where:

$S_t = P_{A,t} - P_{B,t}$ is the spread at time $t$
$\mu_{\tau} = \frac{1}{\tau}\sum_{i=0}^{\tau-1} S_{t-i}$ is the rolling mean over window $\tau$
$\sigma_{\tau} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{\tau-1}\sum_{i=0}^{\tau-1}(S_{t-i} - \mu_{\tau})^2}$ is the rolling standard deviation

Trigger thresholds:

$|z| > 1.6\sigma$ → signal generated (HORMUZ_DIVERGENCE type 0x3E0)
$|z| > 3.0\sigma$ → high-confidence trade signal
$|z| > 4.5\sigma$ → extreme divergence — structural break candidate

3.2 Lead-Lag Cross-Correlation

For identifying the optimal lag $\tau^*$ between supply chain nodes (e.g., cable tray orders → campus completions):

$$r_{XY}(\tau) = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^{N-\tau}\bigl(X_t - \bar{X}\bigr)\bigl(Y_{t+\tau} - \bar{Y}\bigr)}{\sqrt{\sum_{t=1}^{N}(X_t-\bar{X})^2 \cdot \sum_{t=1}^{N}(Y_{t+\tau}-\bar{Y})^2}}$$

Optimal lag selection: $$\tau^* = \arg\max_{\tau \in [0, T_{\max}]} \bigl|r_{XY}(\tau)\bigr|$$

Empirical values for datacenter supply chain:

Pair	$\tau^*$	$r_{XY}(\tau^*)$
Cable tray PO → campus completion	6–9 months	~0.82
LV labor dispatch → commissioning	4–6 months	~0.76
GPU lead time → hyperscaler CapEx revision	1–3 months	~0.68

3.3 Copper/Aluminum Substitution Threshold

The busway specification decision function (Siemens 2023 cost parity model):

$$\text{Specify Al} \iff \frac{P_{\text{Cu}}}{P_{\text{Al}}} > \theta_{\text{sub}}$$

Where $\theta_{\text{sub}} \approx 4.2$ (empirical, accounts for conductor sizing adjustment: Al requires ~1.56× cross-section of Cu for same ampacity, offset by lower density).

In LME absolute terms: $$P_{\text{Cu}} > $10{,}000\text{/ton} \implies \text{substitution wave begins}$$

Substitution market impact:

$$\Delta_{\text{Al demand}} = V_{\text{busway}} \times \rho_{\text{sub}}(P_{\text{Cu}}) \times m_{\text{Al/m}}$$

Where $\rho_{\text{sub}}$ is the substitution adoption rate (logistics S-curve, ~60-day lag from price signal to distributor spec change).

3.4 Ghost Grid Parity Gap (Polymarket Arbitrage)

For any binary Polymarket:

$$\text{gap} = 1 - (P_{\text{YES}} + P_{\text{NO}})$$

Edge condition: $$\text{edge} \iff \text{gap} > 0.02 \text{ (2% threshold)}$$

Risk-adjusted expected value of gap trade: $$\text{EV} = \frac{\text{gap}}{2} - \frac{\text{gas} + \text{spread}}{V_{\text{position}}}$$

Position is profitable when $\text{EV} > 0$, i.e.:

$$V_{\text{position}} > \frac{2(\text{gas} + \text{spread})}{\text{gap}}$$

3.5 Aluminum Demand Projection

$$\Delta_{Al} = N_{\text{campus}} \times \bar{m}_{Al} \times p_{\text{build}}$$

$$\Delta_{Al} = 300 \times 750,\text{MT} \times 0.85 \approx \boxed{191{,}250,\text{MT incremental (2025–2027)}}$$

As fraction of global primary aluminum production (~70M MT/yr):

$$f_{\text{datacenter}} = \frac{191{,}250}{3 \times 70{,}000{,}000} \approx 0.09%$$

Small as fraction of total, but concentrated in extrusion alloy (6xxx series) — a specific product form with its own supply chain. The AEC backlog is the right signal, not LME spot.

4. Signal Harvesting Architecture

sequenceDiagram
    autonumber
    actor USER as Operator<br/>(OMEN-01)
    participant PH as Python Harvester<br/>parity_harvester.py
    participant GAMMA as Polymarket<br/>Gamma API
    participant MCX as Price Feeds<br/>MCX/ICE/LME
    participant GYST_PY as GYSTv2<br/>hormuz_tracker_gyst.py
    participant API as Platform API<br/>Next.js Route
    participant DB as Turso LibSQL<br/>signals + uuid_registry
    participant DASH as Dashboard<br/>/traders/dashboard

    USER->>PH: python main.py (ITERATIONS=0)
    loop Every 60s
        PH->>GAMMA: GET /markets?tag=geopolitics,iran,hormuz
        GAMMA-->>PH: YES/NO prices + liquidity
        PH->>MCX: GET brent + mcx futures (simulated)
        MCX-->>PH: P_A, P_B prices
        PH->>PH: z = (P_A - P_B - μ) / σ
        alt |z| > MIN_SCORE (1.6σ)
            PH->>GYST_PY: GYSTv2(signal=forecast, commodity=..., ts32=..., extra=score+conf)
            Note over GYST_PY: SHA-256(commodity:ns:ts32:signal_int:market_id:extra)<br/>→ deterministic 18-bit entropy
            GYST_PY-->>PH: base64url GYST token
            PH->>API: POST /api/signals/hormuz/ingest<br/>X-Harvester-UUID: <registered_uuid>
            Note over API: encodeGYST(type=0x3E0, contentKey=pair+commodity+ts+signal+score+conf)<br/>→ 128-bit deterministic UUID
            API->>DB: INSERT OR IGNORE signals<br/>INSERT OR IGNORE uuid_registry
            DB-->>API: 201 Created
            API-->>PH: {uuid, type_code: 0x3E0, ts}
            PH->>PH: log INGEST OK → uuid=<full uuid>
        end
    end
    DASH->>API: GET /api/signals/hormuz?since_min=120
    API->>DB: SELECT * FROM signals WHERE concept_slug='hormuz_convergence'
    DB-->>API: rows[]
    API-->>DASH: {signals: [...]}
    DASH->>DASH: render UUIDChip (HARM·3e0a) per signal

UUID Determinism Guarantee

flowchart TD
    INPUT["Signal Inputs:\npair, commodity, ts_sec,\nforecast_signal, score, confidence"]
    HASH["SHA-256(pair:commodity:ts:round(signal×0xFFFF):\nround(score×1000):round(conf×1000))"]
    LOW42["low42 = hash[:6_bytes] & ((1<<42)-1)"]
    PACK["Pack 128-bit GYST UUID\ntype(12)|ns(12)|ts(24)|ver(4)|frac(12)|var(2)|sig(16)|hash(42)"]
    OUT["Deterministic UUID\nSame inputs → Same UUID\nIdempotent INSERT OR IGNORE"]

    INPUT --> HASH --> LOW42 --> PACK --> OUT

    style INPUT fill:#1a1000,stroke:#cc7700
    style HASH  fill:#0a0a1e,stroke:#9977dd
    style OUT   fill:#0a1e0a,stroke:#10b981

5. Cu/Al Substitution Decision Model

flowchart TD
    SPOT["LME Copper 3M Forward\n(daily settlement)"]
    CHECK{"P_Cu ≥ $10,000/ton\n(θ_sub threshold)"}
    AL_SPEC["Specify Aluminum Busway\nSiemens BD2 Al-Series\nEaton AL-Pow-R-Way\nSchneider Canalis Al"]
    CU_SPEC["Specify Copper Busway\nSiemens BD2 Cu-Series\nEaton Pow-R-Way Cu\nSchneider Canalis Cu"]

    SPOT --> CHECK
    CHECK -->|"YES — Cu premium"| AL_SPEC
    CHECK -->|"NO — Cu economic"| CU_SPEC

    AL_SPEC --> TIGHT["Al extrusion demand ↑\nAEC backlog increases\nLead time +4–8 weeks"]
    AL_SPEC --> ARBI["LME Al spot\npressure ↑\n~60 day lag"]

    CU_SPEC --> SLACK["Al extrusion\nneutral demand"]
    CU_SPEC --> NORM["LME Cu\nnormal demand\nchannel"]

    TIGHT --> SIGNAL["GYST Signal:\nCU_AL_SUBSTITUTION\ntype 0x3F8"]
    ARBI --> SIGNAL

    subgraph MARKET["Polymarket Market"]
        PM["Will LME Cu/Al ratio exceed 4.5x\nby Q3 2026, triggering busway\nspecification substitution?"]
    end
    SIGNAL -.->|"signal feeds"| PM

    style CHECK fill:#1e1200,stroke:#cc7700
    style AL_SPEC fill:#0a1e0a,stroke:#10b981
    style CU_SPEC fill:#1e0a0a,stroke:#ef4444
    style SIGNAL fill:#0a0a1e,stroke:#9977dd
    style MARKET fill:#0a0a1e,stroke:#9977dd,color:#c8d0e8

6. GYST UUID v8 Bit Protocol

The SoMaCo GYST UUID v8 is a 128-bit self-describing, content-addressed token. Every UUID encodes its own type, origin, timestamp, domain, and signal — no external lookup required.

Bit Layout

 127                                                                0
  ├──────────┬──────────┬────────────────────┬────┬────────────┬──┬────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────────────────┤
  │ type(12) │  ns(12)  │    timestamp(24)   │ver │ fractal(12)│va│   signal(16)       │         content_hash(42)                  │
  │ 0x3E0    │ 0x3AA    │ Unix sec & 0xFFFFFF│ 8  │ depth+dom  │2 │ forecast×0xFFFF    │ SHA256(all signal fields)[:42 bits]        │
  └──────────┴──────────┴────────────────────┴────┴────────────┴──┴────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────────┘
  bits: 12        12              24            4       12       2         16                           42

block-beta
  columns 128
  TYPE["TYPE\n12 bits\n0x3E0"]:12
  NS["NS\n12\n0x3AA"]:12
  TS["TIMESTAMP\n24 bits\nUnix sec & 0xFFFFFF"]:24
  VER["VER\n4\n=8"]:4
  FRAC["FRACTAL\n12 bits\ndepth+dom+gen"]:12
  VAR["VAR\n2"]:2
  SIG["SIGNAL\n16 bits\nforecast×65535"]:16
  HASH["CONTENT HASH — SHA-256(pair:commodity:ts:signal:score:confidence)[:42 bits]"]:46

  style TYPE fill:#9977dd,color:#fff
  style NS fill:#66cccc,color:#000
  style TS fill:#6699cc,color:#fff
  style VER fill:#cc9900,color:#fff
  style FRAC fill:#cc7700,color:#fff
  style VAR fill:#10b981,color:#fff
  style SIG fill:#ef4444,color:#fff
  style HASH fill:#444,color:#aaa

Encoding Function

U₁₂₈ = type[12] ‖ ns[12] ‖ ts[24] ‖ ver[4] ‖ fractal[12] ‖ var[2] ‖ signal[16] ‖ hash₄₂

Where:

type[12] = signal type code (0x3E0 = HORMUZ_DIVERGENCE, 0x3F7 = AL_DATACENTER, etc.)
ns[12] = namespace hash (0x3AA = somacosf.com)
ts[24] = Unix timestamp seconds masked to 24 bits (known bug: wraps ~194 days — fix: use 32-bit offset from 2026-01-01 epoch)
ver[4] = 0x8 (RFC 9562 UUIDv8)
fractal[12] = depth(4) + domain(4) + generation(4)
var[2] = 0b10 (RFC variant)
signal[16] = round(forecast_signal × 65535) — the YES price encoded in the UUID itself
hash[42] = SHA256(type:ns:ts:signal:provenance:contentKey)[:42 bits] — deterministic, never random

Type Code Registry (Commodity Expansion)

mindmap
  root((GYST\nType Codes))
    ENERGY 0x3E0-0x3EF
      0x3E0 HORMUZ_DIVERGENCE
      0x3E1 HORMUZ_MARKET_PRICE
      0x3E2 LNG_FREIGHT_RATE
    INFRA 0x3F0-0x3FF
      0x3F0 TRADER_WALLET
      0x3F1 TRADER_BOT
      0x3F2 LIQUID_COOLING_HPC
      0x3F3 GPU_SUPPLY_CHAIN
      0x3F4 DATACENTER_CABLE_TRAY
      0x3F5 LV_INSTALLER_LABOR
      0x3F6 AI_RACK_LEAD_TIME
    METALS 0x3F7-0x3FA
      0x3F7 ALUMINUM_DATACENTER
      0x3F8 CU_AL_SUBSTITUTION
      0x3F9 STEEL_TRAY_MARGIN
      0x3FA COPPER_DC_POWER
    AGENTS 0x500-0x51F
      0x501 AGENT_CORE
      0x502 AGENT_ANALYST
      0x503 AGENT_EXECUTOR
      0x510 CONTRACT_GENERIC

7. Market Creation Workflow

flowchart TD
    IDEA["💡 Market Concept Identified\ne.g. 'Al busway substitution\ntracks Cu/Al spread'"]

    CONCEPT["POST /api/market-lab\nDefine: slug, title, category,\ndescription, tags"]

    PAIRS["Define Signal Pairs\n{ a: 'LME Cu 3M fwd',\n  b: 'LME Al 3M fwd',\n  spread_type: 'ratio_threshold' }"]

    SOURCES["Map Data Sources\n● LME daily settlement — pending\n● AEC quarterly backlog — pending\n● Polymarket — live ✓"]

    PMDRAFT["Draft Polymarket Title\n'Will LME Cu/Al ratio exceed\n4.5× by Q3 2026?'"]

    HARVEST{Data Sources\nLive?}

    WIRE["Wire Harvester\nExtend parity_harvester.py\nwith LME API calls\nGYST type 0x3F8"]

    ACCUM["Signal Accumulation\n30+ days history\nz-score baseline established"]

    REVIEW["Market Lab Review\nSignal quality check\nNon-stationary test\nPolymarket fit assessment"]

    SUBMIT["Submit to Polymarket\nMarket Creation Portal\nWith supporting signal data"]

    LIVE["🟢 Market LIVE\nBinary YES/NO\nLiquidity bootstrapped"]

    TRADE["Execute Against Signal\nGYST UUID provenance chain\nORDER_INTENT 0x327 →\nTX → SETTLEMENT 0x329"]

    IDEA --> CONCEPT --> PAIRS --> SOURCES --> PMDRAFT --> HARVEST
    HARVEST -->|"NO — wire first"| WIRE --> ACCUM
    HARVEST -->|"YES — has data"| ACCUM
    ACCUM --> REVIEW --> SUBMIT --> LIVE --> TRADE

    style IDEA   fill:#1a0a2e,stroke:#9977dd
    style LIVE   fill:#0a1e0a,stroke:#10b981
    style TRADE  fill:#0a1e0a,stroke:#10b981
    style WIRE   fill:#1e1200,stroke:#cc7700
    style SUBMIT fill:#0a0a1e,stroke:#6699cc

8. Market Lab — UI/UX Specification

Layout Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  ← DASHBOARD    MARKET LAB · COMMODITY INTELLIGENCE PORTAL    7 ACTIVE  [+ PROPOSE] │
│  0 ACTIVE  7 PROPOSED                              POLY  HOME                       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  THESIS BANNER (violet accent)                                                      │
│  "AI build-out is a commodity play. Aluminum, copper, steel not priced in LME..."   │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  [ALL]  [METALS]  [ENERGY]  [HPC_INFRA]  [DATACENTER]  [LABOR]  [FREIGHT]  [OTHER] │
├────────────────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  ┌─────────────────────────────────────┐   │  ┌──────────────────────────────────┐  │
│  │ [METALS] [PROPOSED] 0x3F7     ⬡    │   │  │ PROPOSE NEW MARKET CONCEPT       │  │
│  │ Aluminum Extrusion Datacenter Index │   │  ├──────────────────────────────────┤  │
│  │ Aluminum is embedded in every       │   │  │ TITLE *                          │  │
│  │ layer of the AI datacenter stack... │   │  │ [                              ] │  │
│  │ #aluminum #lme #shfe #extrusion    │   │  │ slug: auto-generated             │  │
│  │ 3 pairs  ●●●●● 0/5 live            │   │  │ CATEGORY *                       │  │
│  └─────────────────────────────────────┘   │  │ [HPC_INFRA ▼                   ] │  │
│  ┌─────────────────────────────────────┐   │  │ DESCRIPTION                      │  │
│  │ [METALS] [PROPOSED] 0x3F8     ⬡    │   │  │ [                              ] │  │
│  │ Cu/Al Busway Substitution Spread    │   │  │ [                              ] │  │
│  │ When LME Cu > $10k/ton, busbar      │   │  │ SIGNAL PAIR                      │  │
│  │ spec switches to aluminum...        │   │  │ [Series A    ] [spread▼] [Ser B] │  │
│  │ 2 pairs  ●●●   0/3 live            │   │  │ POLYMARKET DRAFT TITLE           │  │
│  └─────────────────────────────────────┘   │  │ [Will X exceed Y by DATE?      ] │  │
│  ...                                       │  │ TAGS                             │  │
│                                            │  │ [copper, aluminum, busway      ] │  │
│                                            │  │         [PROPOSE MARKET CONCEPT] │  │
│                                            │  └──────────────────────────────────┘  │
├────────────────────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  SUPPLY CHAIN MAP — 8-node grid with material annotations + lead time badges        │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  MATERIALS BREAKDOWN — 4-column: Al · Cu · Steel · Zn per 100MW campus             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Design System Tokens

Token	Value	Usage
`C.bg`	`#050810`	Page background
`C.panel`	`#0d1117`	Card/panel surface
`C.border`	`rgba(240,160,48,0.25)`	Amber ghost border
`C.ink`	`#c8d0e8`	Primary text
`C.dim`	`rgba(140,160,200,0.5)`	Labels/metadata
`C.orange`	`#cc7700`	ENERGY category accent
`C.violet`	`#9977dd`	HPC_INFRA + GYST accent
`C.cyan`	`#66cccc`	DATACENTER accent
`C.amber`	`#cc9900`	LABOR + warning accent
`C.blue`	`#6699cc`	FREIGHT + links
`#B87333`	`copper-brown`	METALS category accent
`C.green`	`#10b981`	Live/active status

UUID Chip Component States

stateDiagram-v2
    [*] --> Default: render
    Default --> Hover: onMouseEnter
    Hover --> Default: onMouseLeave
    Default --> Open: onClick
    Open --> Default: onClose
    Hover --> Open: onClick (while hovering)
    Open --> Open: onPositionChange (drag)

    state Default {
        chip_style: "HARM·3e0a"\nfaint border\n{color}08 bg
    }
    state Hover {
        chip_style: highlighted border\n{color}12 bg
        tooltip: type_name · domain · signal% · timestamp\nmini bit-bar
    }
    state Open {
        chip_style: active border glow\n{color}20 bg
        popup: FloatingCardletShell\nfull 128-bit decode\nsignal gradient bar\nCOPY button\nbit layout visualization\nprovenance chain note
    }

UUID Chip Visual Specification

DEFAULT:                HOVER tooltip:              OPEN popup:
                        ┌────────────────────────┐  ┌─────────────────────────┐
                        │ HORMUZ_DIVERGENCE  0x3E0│  │ GYST UUIDv8 · HARM      │
                        │ ENERGY · signal=87.4%  │  ├─────────────────────────┤
  ●HARM·3e0a            │ PROV  DEXTER (0x01)    │  │ 3e0a-3aa-...-... [COPY] │
  ──────────            │ NS    somacosf.com     │  │ TYPE   0x3E0 — HORMUZ.. │
  orange border         │ TIME  2026-04-28 12:34 │  │ SIGNAL ██████████ 87.4% │
  9px monospace         │ ▓▓▓▒▒░░░░░ bit-bar     │  │ ...                     │
                        │ click to inspect        │  │ [bit layout bar]        │
                        └────────────────────────┘  └─────────────────────────┘

9. Polymarket Draft Markets

Markets ready for submission once signal data accumulates (30+ days minimum):

Tier 1 — Active Signal Feed

#	Title	Category	Type Code	Signal Source
1	Will Brent/MCX spread exceed 5σ in May 2026?	Energy	0x3E0	Hormuz harvester (live)
2	Will LNG freight (Qatar→Asia) exceed $150k/day by Q3 2026?	Energy	0x3E2	Spark Commodities API

Tier 2 — Data Source Pending

#	Title	Category	Type Code	Blocker
3	Will LME aluminum exceed $3,000/ton before Q1 2027?	Metals	0x3F7	LME API key
4	Will LME Cu/Al ratio exceed 4.5× by Q3 2026?	Metals	0x3F8	LME API key
5	Will Taiwan liquid cooling exports to US decline >15% in H2 2026?	HPC Infra	0x3F2	ODM contacts
6	Will NVIDIA H100/H200 lead time exceed 20 weeks by Q3 2026?	HPC Infra	0x3F3	Broker feeds
7	Will US hyperscaler construction starts exceed 200 in Q3 2026?	Datacenter	0x3F4	Dodge Data
8	Will CME HRC steel rise >20% by Q4 2026 (datacenter demand)?	Metals	0x3F9	CME API
9	Will IBEW LV wages rise >8% YoY by Q3 2026?	Labor	0x3F5	IBEW reports
10	Will AI rack lead times from Taiwan ODMs exceed 24 weeks Q4 2026?	HPC Infra	0x3F6	ODM contacts
11	Will LME copper exceed $12,000/ton driven by datacenter demand?	Metals	0x3FA	LME API key

Market Quality Checklist (Polymarket Submission)

flowchart LR
    A{Binary\nresolvable?} -->|YES| B{Clear resolution\nsource?}
    B -->|YES| C{30+ days\nsignal history?}
    C -->|YES| D{Non-trivial\nprobability 5-95%?}
    D -->|YES| E["✅ SUBMIT"]
    A -->|NO| F["❌ Redesign"]
    B -->|NO| G["❌ Add resolution criteria"]
    C -->|NO| H["⏳ Accumulate signal"]
    D -->|NO| I["❌ Rephrase or reprice"]

10. Type Code Registry

Full registry of GYST UUID type codes for the SoMaCo commodity intelligence system:

Domain 0xD (ENERGY):    0x3D0 – 0x3DF
Domain 0xC (MARKET):    0x3E0 – 0x3EF  ← HORMUZ + LNG
Domain — (INFRA/METAL): 0x3F0 – 0x3FF  ← HPC + DATACENTER + METALS

0x3E0  HORMUZ_DIVERGENCE          Brent/MCX z-score divergence
0x3E1  HORMUZ_MARKET_PRICE        Polymarket Hormuz/Iran quote
0x3E2  LNG_FREIGHT_RATE           Qatar→Asia TFDE day rate
0x3F0  TRADER_WALLET              Polymarket wallet profile
0x3F1  TRADER_BOT                 Algorithmic trader signature
0x3F2  LIQUID_COOLING_HPC         Taiwan ODM CDU lead time
0x3F3  GPU_SUPPLY_CHAIN           H100/H200 grey-market premium
0x3F4  DATACENTER_CABLE_TRAY      Legrand/Schneider order volume
0x3F5  LV_INSTALLER_LABOR         IBEW dispatch tightness index
0x3F6  AI_RACK_LEAD_TIME          Wiwynn/FII 80kW rack lead time
0x3F7  ALUMINUM_DATACENTER        LME Al + AEC extrusion backlog
0x3F8  CU_AL_SUBSTITUTION         Cu/Al busway substitution spread
0x3F9  STEEL_CABLE_TRAY_MARGIN    CME HRC + LME Zn margin compression
0x3FA  COPPER_DATACENTER_POWER    LME Cu + datacenter construction

11. Implementation Status

gantt
    title SoMaCo Market Intelligence — Build Status
    dateFormat  YYYY-MM-DD
    axisFormat  %b %d

    section Foundation
    GYST UUID v8 deterministic encoding   :done,    uuid1,  2026-04-20, 2026-04-28
    rand42→SHA-256 content hash fix       :done,    uuid2,  2026-04-27, 2026-04-28
    contentKey score+confidence fix       :done,    uuid3,  2026-04-28, 2026-04-28

    section Hormuz Pipeline
    Python harvester (OMEN-01)            :done,    ph1,    2026-04-20, 2026-04-28
    Platform ingest route 0x3E0           :done,    api1,   2026-04-22, 2026-04-28
    Trading dashboard /traders/dashboard  :done,    dash1,  2026-04-28, 2026-04-28

    section Market Lab
    API route + seed concepts (7)         :done,    ml1,    2026-04-28, 2026-04-28
    Market Lab page /market-lab           :done,    ml2,    2026-04-28, 2026-04-28
    Metals tier (Al/Cu/Steel/Zn)          :done,    ml3,    2026-04-28, 2026-04-28
    UUID chips type-coded + tooltip       :done,    uid1,   2026-04-28, 2026-04-28

    section Next — Data Sources
    LME API wiring (Al + Cu)              :active,  lme1,   2026-04-28, 2026-05-05
    AEC extrusion backlog scraper         :         aec1,   2026-05-05, 2026-05-12
    CME HRC steel feed                    :         cme1,   2026-05-05, 2026-05-12
    Signal accumulation 30+ days          :         sig1,   2026-05-05, 2026-06-01

    section Market Submission
    Polymarket market creation portal     :         pm1,    2026-06-01, 2026-06-15
    First market submission (Al demand)   :         pm2,    2026-06-15, 2026-06-22
    Fund Kalshi + execute Tier 1          :         fund1,  2026-05-01, 2026-05-15

Appendix: Key Data Sources

Signal	Source	Type	Status	Cost
LME Aluminum spot + 3M	LME official API	Futures	Pending	~$500/mo
LME Copper spot + 3M	LME official API	Futures	Pending	Bundled
SHFE Al futures (Shanghai)	Wind/Bloomberg terminal	Futures	Pending	~$300/mo
CME HRC steel futures	CME DataMine	Futures	Pending	~$200/mo
LME Zinc spot	LME API	Futures	Pending	Bundled
AEC extrusion order backlog	AEC quarterly PDF	Trade assoc	Pending	Free
Polymarket Gamma API	gamma-api.polymarket.com	Prediction market	Live ✓	Free
CBRE datacenter construction	CBRE quarterly	Research	Pending	Free (summary)
Dodge Data construction permits	Dodge API	Construction	Pending	~$400/mo
IBEW dispatch reports	ibew.org manual	Labor union	Pending	Free
BICSI certification data	BICSI annual	Training	Pending	Free

Generated by SoMaCo DEXTER Loop · OMEN-01 · 2026-04-28 Protocol: GYST UUID v8 · SoMaCo v2026.04.28 Platform: somacosf-platform · Next.js 15 · Turso LibSQL Harvester: parity_harvester.py · Python 3.13

SoMaCoSF/somaco-market-intelligence.md

Select an option

No results found