SoMaCo Part 2 — 11 Polymarket market drafts w/ full resolution criteria, Cu/Al trade thesis, IBEW labor signal, board interlocks, platform API
Part 2 of 2 | First gist: https://gist.github.com/SoMaCoSF/6af0a31f9197d2b148f20b1a2baff1c0 Published: 2026-04-28 | Platform: somacosf.com
- $295B in hyperscaler CapEx — filed with the SEC, publicly committed FY2025
- Zero Polymarket coverage of physical AI infrastructure supply chain
- 11 proposed markets across ENERGY / HPC_INFRA / DATACENTER / LABOR / METALS
- Signal lattice live — Hormuz harvester running, GYST UUID v8 type registry built
This document goes deeper: the actual trade thesis per commodity, the board interlocks that connect demand to supply, the 11 Polymarket market drafts with full resolution criteria, and the platform API so you can pull the live data yourself.
The hyperscaler-to-supplier relationship isn't just contractual — it's structural. Shared board members, cross-holdings, and direct investment relationships create the capital flow.
graph TD
subgraph Hyperscaler Boards
MSFT_BOD["Microsoft Board\nSatya Nadella · Brad Smith\nAmos Hostetter · John Thompson"]
META_BOD["Meta Board\nMark Zuckerberg · Sheryl Sandberg\nMarc Andreessen · Reed Hastings"]
AMZN_BOD["Amazon Board\nAndy Jassy · Jeffrey Bezos\nIndra Nooyi · Jamie Gorelick"]
end
subgraph Infrastructure Suppliers
VRT_BOD["Vertiv Board\nGiordano Albertazzi\nBacked: Platinum Equity"]
ETN_BOD["Eaton Board\nCraig Arnold\nDirectors: Olivier Leonetti"]
ATKR_BOD["Atkore Board\nBill Waltz\nPE heritage: CD&R"]
end
subgraph Commodity Producers
FCX_BOD["Freeport-McMoRan Board\nRichard Adkerson\nCarl Icahn stake history"]
AA_BOD["Alcoa Board\nWilliam Oplinger\nSeparated from Arconic 2016"]
end
MSFT_BOD -->|"Azure AI DC procurement\n$80B FY2025"| VRT_BOD
MSFT_BOD -->|"Power mgmt contracts"| ETN_BOD
META_BOD -->|"Cable tray for Menlo DC"| ATKR_BOD
AMZN_BOD -->|"AWS cooling infra"| VRT_BOD
VRT_BOD -->|"Al cold plates procurement"| AA_BOD
ETN_BOD -->|"Cu windings + busbar"| FCX_BOD
ATKR_BOD -->|"Al cable tray substrate"| AA_BOD
This is the core deliverable. Polymarket requires precise, objectively verifiable resolution criteria. Below is a production-ready draft for each of the 11 proposed markets. Copy these directly into a Polymarket market proposal.
Title: Will the Brent–MCX crude oil spread z-score exceed 3.0 standard deviations before December 31, 2025?
Description: Measures statistical divergence between ICE Brent crude (London) and MCX Crude Oil futures (India). A z-score above 3.0 indicates a historically anomalous Hormuz/Iran-related disruption signal.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the 30-day rolling z-score of the daily Brent front-month (ICE) minus MCX Crude Oil front-month (MCX India) spread exceeds +3.00 at any official daily settlement between now and December 31, 2025.
Primary resolution source: Bloomberg Terminal (BRENT COMDTY vs CRUDEOIL IN COMDTY). Secondary: ICE official settlement + MCX India official settlement converted at RBI reference rate.
If Bloomberg is unavailable for 5+ consecutive business days, resolution deferred to first available date.
Suggested liquidity: $50K–$200K
Edge: Harvester live. Real z-score computed every 60 seconds. No competing market.
Current status: ACTIVE — python harvester posting to /api/signals/hormuz
Signal type: 0x3E0 · Domain: MARKET (0x1) · Provenance: DEXTER (0x1)
Title: Will the Baltic Spark Spread LNG Index (BLNG1g) exceed 150 on any day in Q3 2025?
Description: Global LNG freight rates (174k cbm TFDE vessel class) are a leading indicator for AI datacenter power costs and geopolitical shipping risk. Index at 150 represents approximately 1.5× current baseline.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the Baltic Exchange officially published BLNG1g (Spark Spread 174k TFDE vessel) daily rate exceeds 150 (USD per day equivalent, as published by Baltic Exchange) on any business day between July 1 and September 30, 2025.
Resolution source: Baltic Exchange official daily market report at balticexchange.com. If Baltic Exchange suspends publication, Clarksons Platou LNG rate assessment (same vessel class) used as secondary.
Suggested liquidity: $25K–$100K
Edge: Zero PM coverage of freight. Highly legible resolution source. LNG rates move sharply in summer (Asian cooling demand).
Title: Will any major AI datacenter liquid cooling CDU supplier report delivery lead times exceeding 20 weeks by September 30, 2025?
Description: Liquid cooling CDUs (Coolant Distribution Units) are the T+2mo gating item for AI rack deployment. Modine already reported sold-out Q3. This market prices the probability of a formal lead time breach entering public record.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if any of the following discloses CDU delivery lead times exceeding 20 weeks (140 days from order to delivery) in an official earnings call, SEC filing, or press release published before September 30, 2025:
- Modine Manufacturing (MOD) — Q earnings call or 10-Q
- Vertiv Holdings (VRT) — earnings call or 8-K
- Wiwynn Corporation — quarterly filing (Taiwan OTC: 6669)
- Foxconn Industrial Internet — quarterly filing
- Any hyperscaler (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, ORCL) disclosing datacenter commissioning delay attributed to CDU availability
Resolution adjudicated from SEC EDGAR filings and Seeking Alpha earnings transcripts (official company words only — analyst estimates do not count).
Suggested liquidity: $50K–$250K
Edge: Neil Ashe (Modine CEO) said "sold out through Q3" in January 2025. This is near-certain YES. Strong liquidity opportunity for market makers willing to take short odds.
Title: Will Nvidia GB200 NVL72 rack delivery lead times be publicly reported as exceeding 16 weeks before December 31, 2025?
Description: The GB200 NVL72 is the flagship AI cluster unit. Lead times directly determine AI datacenter commissioning timelines, copper/aluminum consumption rates, and CDU order volumes.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if any of the following sources publicly reports GB200 NVL72 complete rack (fully integrated, tested, ready to ship) delivery lead times from order placement exceeding 16 weeks (112 days) in a document published before December 31, 2025:
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) earnings call or 10-Q
- Dell Technologies earnings call or 10-Q (PowerEdge XE9680 equivalent)
- HPE earnings call or 10-K (Cray XD systems)
- Nvidia partner communications (referenced in Nvidia 10-K or 8-K)
- IDC, Gartner, or 451 Research published supply chain report (subscription product, publicly announced)
Analyst speculation does not count. Must be official company disclosure or named primary research firm report.
Suggested liquidity: $100K–$500K
Edge: High public interest. Strong yes/no tension. Clear resolution path through SMCI quarterly.
Title: Will Atkore + nVent combined datacenter segment revenue exceed $1.5B in H1 2025?
Description: Cable tray and cable management are the T+6mo leading indicator. POs placed before permits filed. Combined Atkore + nVent datacenter segments are the most observable proxy for physical AI infrastructure spending velocity.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the sum of:
- Atkore (ATKR) reported revenue attributable to cable management / data center infrastructure for Q1 + Q2 2025 (fiscal quarters as reported)
- nVent Electric (NVT) "Data Solutions" segment revenue for H1 2025
exceeds $1.5 billion USD as reported in official 10-Q SEC filings.
If either company restructures segment reporting, Polymarket resolution team uses management commentary to allocate appropriately. Resolution date: August 15, 2025 (after both Q2 10-Qs filed).
Suggested liquidity: $50K–$200K
Edge: Atkore Q1 FY2025 datacenter revenue run rate ≈ $280M/quarter. nVent Data Solutions ≈ $220M/quarter. Combined $500M/quarter × 2 = $1B baseline. $1.5B requires +50% growth — plausible given order book commentary.
Title: Will any US hyperscaler datacenter project disclose a commissioning delay due to electrician shortage in an SEC filing before end of 2025?
Description: IBEW/BICSI installer labor is the T+9mo gating constraint. It is the least tracked, most opaque node in the supply chain — and therefore the highest-alpha prediction market opportunity. No public index exists.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if any of the following occurs before December 31, 2025:
Option A: Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, or Oracle discloses in a Form 8-K, 10-K, or 10-Q that a datacenter commissioning date was delayed specifically due to electrical installation labor availability (IBEW/union electrician shortage, licensed electrician backlog, or LV installation crew unavailability).
Option B: IBEW (International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers) publishes an official dispatch shortage notice or labor market advisory referencing AI datacenter projects affecting 3 or more IBEW local jurisdictions simultaneously.
Option C: Any US federal or state agency (Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics) publishes a report specifically noting AI datacenter construction as a driver of electrical trade labor shortage.
Resolution adjudicated from official government or company filings only.
Suggested liquidity: $25K–$100K
Edge: Highest uncertainty of all 11 markets. True alpha — market makers must price pure uncertainty. If YES resolves, it creates the template for the entire IBEW backlog index market category.
Title: Will Super Micro Computer report AI rack integration backlog exceeding 6 months in any 2025 earnings call?
Description: AI rack integration (GPU cluster assembly, thermal testing, liquid cooling pre-charge, logistics) is the T+4mo node. SMCI is the highest-volume AI rack integrator with direct visibility into hyperscaler order flow.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if Super Micro Computer (SMCI) in any earnings call or official communication between now and December 31, 2025 explicitly states that:
- Current AI rack (NVL72, H100 cluster, or equivalent multi-GPU configuration) average lead time from customer purchase order to delivered-and-accepted exceeds 180 days (6 months), OR
- Order backlog for AI racks exceeds 6 months of current manufacturing capacity at any point during 2025
Resolution source: SMCI earnings call transcripts (Seeking Alpha official), SMCI 10-Q/8-K (SEC EDGAR), SMCI investor day presentations.
If SMCI is acquired or delisted before resolution, Dell or HPE quarterly filings used as proxy.
Suggested liquidity: $50K–$200K
Edge: Charles Liang disclosed ~4 month lead times in Feb 2025. 6-month threshold = meaningful price discovery. Two-sided market with genuine uncertainty.
Title: Will LME primary aluminum 3-month forward exceed $2,800/metric ton before September 30, 2025?
Description: ~191,250 MT incremental aluminum demand from 300 planned 100MW AI campuses 2025–27. This demand is not in LME analyst consensus. Current LME Al ~$2,460/MT. $2,800/MT = +14% from here.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the LME Primary Aluminum 3-Month Forward Contract official settlement price (as published daily by London Metal Exchange at lme.com) exceeds $2,800 per metric ton USD at any official close between now and September 30, 2025.
Secondary resolution: If LME Primary Aluminum market is suspended or settlement not published for 5+ consecutive business days, CME COMEX Aluminum futures (ALI) converted to
$/MT (multiply $ /lb × 2204.62) used as proxy.Exchange rates: All LME prices are denominated in USD — no FX conversion needed.
Current price: ~$2,460/MT (COMEX ALI proxy)
To threshold: +$340/MT (+13.8%)
Suggested liquidity: $100K–$500K
Edge: No analyst model currently includes AI datacenter thermal management as an aluminum demand category. When Alcoa CEO William Oplinger puts it in their demand model, LME reacts. That's the trigger.
Cu/Al substitution threshold: when LME Cu > ~$10,000/MT,
ECs switch HV busbar spec from Cu to Al.
θ_sub ≈ 4.2 (Siemens 2023 cost-parity model)
Creates REFLEXIVE demand for Al as Cu rises.
Title: Will LME Grade A copper 3-month forward exceed $10,500/metric ton before December 31, 2025?
Description: $10,500/MT copper triggers HV busbar specification switches from Cu to Al across datacenter electrical contractors (θ≈4.2 cost-parity). Also the point at which FCX, Southern Copper, and Antofagasta forward books reprice. ~255,000 MT incremental Cu demand not in forward curve.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the LME Grade A Copper 3-Month Forward Contract official settlement price (as published daily by London Metal Exchange at lme.com) exceeds $10,500 per metric ton USD at any official close between now and December 31, 2025.
Secondary resolution: CME COMEX Copper futures (HG=F,
$/lb) × 2204.62 = $ /MT proxy, if LME is unavailable 5+ consecutive business days.
Current price: ~$9,700/MT (COMEX HG proxy)
To threshold: +$800/MT (+8.2%)
Suggested liquidity: $200K–$1M
Edge: Largest liquidity potential of all 11 markets. Copper traders watch LME $10K/MT as major psychological level. Datacenter demand + any supply disruption (Escondida, Grasberg) = fast move through threshold.
Title: Will CME HRC steel (Midwest US) exceed $800/short ton before September 30, 2025?
Description: Hot-rolled coil steel is the primary substrate for Atkore and nVent cable tray products. A squeeze above $800/ton compresses manufacturer margins and triggers price pass-through to hyperscaler procurement teams.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the CME Group Midwest US Hot-Rolled Coil Steel (HRC) front-month futures contract official daily settlement (published at cmegroup.com) exceeds $800 per short ton USD on any business day between now and September 30, 2025.
Resolution source: CME Group official settlement data. Ticker: HRC. No currency conversion required (USD-denominated).
Current price: ~$680/short ton
To threshold: +$120/ton (+17.6%)
Suggested liquidity: $25K–$100K
Edge: Asymmetric upside scenario — tariff escalation, Section 232 steel import action, or construction demand spike. Currently depressed. Small market, clean resolution.
Title: Will Freeport-McMoRan explicitly cite AI datacenter demand exceeding 100,000 MT in their H1 2025 earnings?
Description: FCX is the world's largest publicly traded copper producer. Their explicit attribution of demand to AI datacenters entering quarterly guidance is the single clearest signal that physical AI infrastructure has reached macro commodity scale.
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) in their Q2 2025 earnings call (expected August 2025) OR associated investor materials explicitly attributes copper demand growth of more than 100,000 metric tons to AI datacenter / digital infrastructure buildout in calendar year 2025.
The figure must be explicitly stated (e.g., "AI datacenters accounted for approximately X MT of demand growth") OR derivable from disclosed demand segmentation (e.g., "digital infrastructure represented Y% of our X MT demand growth" where the calculated figure exceeds 100,000 MT).
Resolution source: FCX Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (SEC EDGAR), FCX Q2 2025 earnings press release, FCX Investor Day presentations. Analyst estimates do not count — FCX management words only.
Resolution date: August 31, 2025.
Suggested liquidity: $50K–$250K
Edge: FCX Q4 2024: "300–400 MT per 100MW campus." × 300 campuses = 90,000–120,000 MT. If they break out the segment in H1 2025, it's almost certainly above threshold. Near-certain YES with strong asymmetry.
flowchart LR
A["GPU Order\nNVDA/TSMC\nt=0"] --> B["CDU Demand Signal\nVRT/MOD\nt+2mo\n0x3F2"]
B --> C["Rack PO\nSMCI/Wiwynn\nt+4mo\n0x3F6"]
C --> D["Cable Tray PO\nATKR/NVT\nt+6mo\n0x3F4\n★ BEST SIGNAL"]
D --> E["Labor Dispatch\nIBEW/BICSI\nt+9mo\n0x3F5"]
E --> F["Power PO\nETN/Eaton\nt+12mo"]
F --> G["Campus Live\nt+18mo"]
D --> H["Al demand\nLME/SHFE\n0x3F7"]
D --> I["Cu demand\nLME/CME\n0x3FA · 0x3F8"]
B --> H
C --> H
| Market | Certainty | TAL | Position Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3E0 Hormuz | Medium | $50–200K | Active (harvester runs) |
| 0x3F2 CDU Lead Time | HIGH (Modine sold out Q3) | $50–250K | Strong YES |
| 0x3F3 GPU Lead Time | Medium-High | $100–500K | Lean YES |
| 0x3F4 Cable Tray | Medium | $50–200K | Research |
| 0x3F5 IBEW Labor | LOW / Unknown | $25–100K | Pure Alpha |
| 0x3F6 AI Rack | Medium | $50–200K | Two-sided |
| 0x3F7 Al > $2,800 | Medium | $100–500K | Lean YES |
| 0x3F8 Cu > $10,500 | Medium-High | $200K–1M | YES bias |
| 0x3F9 Steel | Low | $25–100K | Speculative |
| 0x3FA FCX attribution | HIGH | $50–250K | Strong YES |
pie title Per 100MW Campus — Aluminum MT Breakdown
"Cable tray + ladder rack (NEMA 20C)" : 200
"Rack extrusions 6061-T6" : 200
"CDU cold plates 6xxx alloy" : 150
"Al busway (when Cu > $10k/ton)" : 87
LME aluminum pricing is driven by:
- Global smelter output (China ~58%, Rest of World ~42%)
- Automotive demand (largest end market historically)
- Packaging / beverage can demand
- Aerospace
AI datacenter thermal management aluminum is currently reported by:
- Novelis (Hindalco subsidiary — private, no public data)
- Arconic (industrial aluminum — doesn't break out DC)
- Alcoa (Oplinger just acknowledged it exists — first time Q4 2024)
The segment does not yet appear in LME demand models. When it does — when Alcoa, Novelis, or Arconic start reporting a "datacenter" demand category — LME prices will re-rate.
That re-rate is the trade.
No one is tracking this. It's the T+9mo gating factor and there is no public index.
sequenceDiagram
participant DC as Datacenter Developer
participant EC as Electrical Contractor (EC)
participant IBEW as IBEW Local Union
participant BICSI as BICSI Certified Techs
DC->>EC: Award low-voltage installation contract
Note over DC,EC: T+6mo after cable tray PO
EC->>IBEW: Dispatch request (Journeyman Wiremen)
IBEW-->>EC: Dispatch wait time: 4-18 weeks
Note over IBEW: AI DC projects compete with<br/>transmission/grid modernization<br/>EV charging buildout<br/>Solar/wind installations
EC->>BICSI: Certified tech requirement (FS5, RCDD)
BICSI-->>EC: Certification backlog 8-16 weeks
Note over BICSI: AI-specific certs added 2024<br/>Training pipeline: 6mo
EC-->>DC: Installation crew mobilized
DC->>DC: Commissioning can proceed (T+9mo)
Why this matters:
- Every gigawatt of AI datacenter capacity requires ~2,000 IBEW/BICSI crew-weeks of LV installation
- The same workforce installs: transmission lines, solar farms, EV charging networks, commercial buildouts
- Competing demand is at all-time highs across all categories simultaneously
- IBEW dispatch shortage = datacenter commissioning delays = CapEx write-downs = earnings misses for hyperscalers
- First market on this has zero competition
Data sources to watch:
ibew.org/tools-and-resources/work-jurisdiction- Bureau of Labor Statistics: SOC 47-2111 (Electricians) monthly
- AGC (Associated General Contractors) monthly workforce survey
All endpoints are public, no authentication required.
# 1. Live supply chain quotes + C-Suite network (Yahoo Finance, 90s cache)
curl https://somacosf.com/api/supply-chain | jq '.quotes.VRT, .quotes["FCX"], .totalCapex'
# 2. All 20 commodity prices + Cu/Al substitution signal
curl https://somacosf.com/api/commodities | jq '.signals, .commodityPrices'
# 3. Live LME Al proxy price (COMEX ALI=F via Yahoo Finance)
curl https://somacosf.com/api/commodities | jq '.quotes[] | select(.ticker=="ALI=F") | {price, changePct, priceConverted}'
# 4. SEC EDGAR live scanner — recent 8-K/10-K for 14 tracked companies
curl https://somacosf.com/api/supply-chain/edgar | jq '.keywordSearches'
# 5. Insider Form 4 buy signals (OpenInsider)
curl https://somacosf.com/api/supply-chain/insider | jq '.buySignalTickers, .buys[0:3]'
# 6. Exec public feed — Twitter/X + PR Newswire (thesis keyword filtered)
curl https://somacosf.com/api/supply-chain/exec-feed | jq '.relevant[0:5]'
# 7. All 11 Polymarket market proposals with resolution criteria
curl https://somacosf.com/api/commodities | jq '.marketProposals[] | {code, title, resolutionDate, edge}'
# 8. Hormuz harvester signals (live from Python daemon)
curl "https://somacosf.com/api/signals/hormuz?since_min=60" | jq '.[0:5]'
# 9. 11 market creation concepts (Turso DB)
curl https://somacosf.com/api/market-lab | jq '.[] | {slug, title, status, type_code}'| URL | What's there |
|---|---|
| https://somacosf.com/commodities | 4-tab: prices + 11 PM drafts + lead-time map + GYST schema |
| https://somacosf.com/showcase | C-Suite network + live quotes + EDGAR + insider feed |
| https://somacosf.com/intelligence | Full investor research dashboard |
| https://somacosf.com/market-lab | Market creation portal — propose new markets |
gantt
title SoMaCo Platform Roadmap
dateFormat YYYY-MM-DD
section Live Now
Hormuz Harvester (Python) :done, 2026-04-01, 2026-04-28
Signal Lattice (Turso) :done, 2026-04-15, 2026-04-28
C-Suite Network + EDGAR scanner :done, 2026-04-28, 2026-04-28
Commodity Dashboard + PM Drafts :done, 2026-04-28, 2026-04-28
section Next 30 Days
LME direct feed integration :active, 2026-04-28, 2026-05-14
Cable tray PO index scraper (ATKR) :2026-05-01, 2026-05-15
IBEW dispatch tracker :2026-05-07, 2026-05-21
Polymarket market creation (file) :2026-05-01, 2026-05-10
section 60 Days
Taiwan ODM lead time tracker :2026-05-15, 2026-06-10
Cu/Al substitution alert daemon :2026-05-20, 2026-06-05
Automated signal → PM price feed :2026-06-01, 2026-06-20
| Signal | Current State | Threshold / Trigger | PM Market Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| LME Cu 3M | ~$9,700/MT | $10,500/MT busway sub | ✗ Proposed |
| LME Al 3M | ~$2,460/MT | $2,800/MT thesis | ✗ Proposed |
| CDU lead time | 20+ weeks (Modine sold out Q3) | 20 weeks breach in filing | ✗ Proposed |
| IBEW labor backlog | Unknown — no index | SEC 8-K disclosure | ✗ Proposed (highest alpha) |
| Cable tray PO volume | Record orders (Atkore Q1) | $1.5B H1 2025 | ✗ Proposed |
| FCX AI DC attribution | Acknowledged Q4 2024 | 100K MT H1 2025 | ✗ Proposed |
| Hormuz z-score | Live — check /api/signals/hormuz | z > 3.0 | ✓ Active |
The thesis in one sentence: Six CEOs filed $295B in datacenter CapEx with the SEC. The commodity supply chain that delivers it has zero Polymarket coverage. The signal lattice is live. The markets don't exist yet. We're building them.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE · RESEARCH ONLY SOMACOSF.COM · GYST UUID v8 · SIGNAL LATTICE: TURSO Part 1: https://gist.github.com/SoMaCoSF/6af0a31f9197d2b148f20b1a2baff1c0