Wettquoten implizierter Stimmenanteil nach Partei [Polymarket]

.chart_bundestagswahl_polymarket.r

library(ggplot2)

sf <- 2
width <- 600 * sf
height <- 335 * sf

options(vsc.dev.args = list(width = width, height = height, res = 72 * sf))

# CDU/CSU
# https://polymarket.com/event/cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election-2-brackets
data <- data.frame(
  range = c("<26%", "26-28%", "28-30%", "30-32%", "32-34%", ">34%"),
  midpoint = c(25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35), # Midpoints of the ranges
  percentage = c(0.02, 0.08, 0.38, 0.42, 0.12, 0.01) # Given percentages as fractions
)
# Calculating the weighted average
union <- sum(data$percentage * data$midpoint) / sum(data$percentage)

# AfD
# https://polymarket.com/event/afd-of-vote-in-german-election-2-brackets
data <- data.frame(
  range = c("<20%", "20-22%", "22-24%", "24-26%", ">26%"),
  midpoint = c(19, 21, 23, 25, 27), # Estimated midpoints
  percentage = c(0.22, 0.41, 0.25, 0.07, 0.07) # Given percentages
)
# Calculating the weighted average
afd <- sum(data$percentage * data$midpoint) / sum(data$percentage)

# SPD
# https://polymarket.com/event/spd-of-vote-in-german-election
data <- data.frame(
  range = c("<10%", "10-15%", "15-20%", "20-25%", "25-30%", ">30%"),
  midpoint = c(5, 12.5, 17.5, 22.5, 27.5, 35), # Midpoints of the ranges
  percentage = c(0.03, 0.44, 0.5, 0.2, 0.005, 0.005) # Given percentages as fractions
)
# Calculating the weighted average
spd <- sum(data$percentage * data$midpoint) / sum(data$percentage)

data <- data.frame(
  Partei = c("CDU/CSU", "AfD", "SPD"),
  Stimmenanteil = c(union, afd, spd)
)

data$Partei <- factor(data$Partei, levels = c("CDU/CSU", "AfD", "SPD"))

# Create the bar chart
ggplot(data, aes(x = Partei, y = Stimmenanteil, fill = Partei)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity") +
  geom_text(aes(label = sprintf("%.1f%%", Stimmenanteil)),
    vjust = -0.5, size = 4
  ) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("CDU/CSU" = "black", "AfD" = "blue", "SPD" = "red")) +
  labs(
    title = "Wettquoten implizierter Stimmenanteil nach Partei [Polymarket]",
    x = "Partei",
    y = "Stimmenanteil"
  ) +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(legend.position = "none")