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aliakbars/bayesian-coin.py

Last active June 28, 2019 09:39
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  1. aliakbars revised this gist Jun 28, 2019. 1 changed file with 3 additions and 1 deletion.
    4 changes: 3 additions & 1 deletion bayesian-coin.py
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    Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
    @@ -10,4 +10,6 @@

    pm.traceplot(coin_trace);

    print('p(coin=fair|HH)={}'.format(coin_trace['which_coin'].mean())
    print('p(coin=fair|HH)={}'.format(
    coin_trace['which_coin'].mean()
    ))
  2. aliakbars revised this gist Jun 18, 2019. 1 changed file with 3 additions and 1 deletion.
    4 changes: 3 additions & 1 deletion bayesian-coin.py
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    Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
    @@ -8,4 +8,6 @@

    coin_trace = pm.sample(5000, tune=2500)

    pm.traceplot(coin_trace);
    pm.traceplot(coin_trace);

    print('p(coin=fair|HH)={}'.format(coin_trace['which_coin'].mean())
  3. aliakbars created this gist Jun 18, 2019.
    11 changes: 11 additions & 0 deletions bayesian-coin.py
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    Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
    @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
    import pymc3 as pm

    with pm.Model() as coinflip:
    which_coin = pm.Bernoulli('which_coin', 0.5)
    theta_biased = pm.Uniform('theta_biased', 0, 1)
    p = pm.math.switch(which_coin > 0.5, 0.5, theta_biased)
    heads = pm.Binomial('heads', n=2, p=p, observed=2)

    coin_trace = pm.sample(5000, tune=2500)

    pm.traceplot(coin_trace);