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October 9, 2015 23:41
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This python program simulates the simplest Monty Hall 3-door problem. No optimization, but can be easily extended to count for many-door situations.
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# Monty Hall simulation | |
import numpy as np | |
winningdoor = -1 # ordinal numbers | |
firstChoice = -1 # both first pick and final pick | |
closedDoor = -1 | |
finalChoice = -1 | |
# called at every loop to initialize result | |
def initialize(): | |
""" | |
This gets an array of 3 elements | |
then we choose the first as winner, the rest as loser | |
""" | |
global firstChoice | |
global closedDoor | |
global winningdoor | |
global finalChoice | |
firstChoice = -1 | |
closedDoor = -1 | |
winningdoor = -1 | |
finalChoice = -1 | |
choice = np.random.choice(3) | |
winningdoor = choice | |
# initial pick | |
def firstPick(): | |
global firstChoice | |
firstChoice = np.random.choice(3) | |
# host closes the door | |
def hostChoice(): | |
""" | |
not allowed to close winning door or door first pick is picked | |
""" | |
global closedDoor | |
choices = [] | |
for i in range(0, 3): | |
if (i != winningdoor) and (i != firstChoice): | |
choices.append(i) | |
closedDoor = np.random.choice(choices) # choose a door to close | |
# switch: true = switch door; false = stay | |
def finalDecision(switch): | |
global firstChoice | |
global finalChoice | |
if switch: | |
for i in range(0, 3): | |
if (i != closedDoor) and (i != firstChoice): | |
finalChoice = i # pick the other door | |
else: | |
finalChoice = firstChoice | |
# determine who wins by comparing two arrays | |
def determineWinner(): | |
if finalChoice == winningdoor: | |
return True | |
else: | |
return False | |
def strategyRun(switch, times): | |
winningStatistics = 0.0 | |
totalGame = 0.0 | |
for x in range(0, times): | |
totalGame += 1 | |
initialize() | |
firstPick() | |
hostChoice() | |
finalDecision(switch) | |
if determineWinner(): | |
winningStatistics += 1 | |
print("total game: " + str(totalGame)) | |
print("winning #: " + str(winningStatistics)) | |
print("prob of winning: " + str(winningStatistics / totalGame)) | |
if __name__ == '__main__': | |
strategyRun(True, 1000) | |
strategyRun(False, 1000) |
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