flatten_the_curve.R

library(tidyverse)

# Download Fira Sans Condensed from 
# https://fonts.google.com/specimen/Fira+Sans+Condensed

high_mean <- 12
high_sd <- 4
flat_mean <- 35
flat_sd <- 12

ggplot(tibble(x = c(0, 70)), aes(x = x)) +
  stat_function(geom = "area", fun = dnorm, n = 1000, 
                args = list(mean = high_mean, sd = high_sd),
                fill = "#FF4136", alpha = 0.8) +
  stat_function(geom = "area", fun = dnorm, n = 1000, 
                args = list(mean = flat_mean, sd = flat_sd),
                fill = "#0074D9", alpha = 0.8) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = dnorm(flat_mean, flat_mean, flat_sd), 
             linetype = "61", color = "grey75") +
  annotate(geom = "text", x = qnorm(0.5, high_mean, high_sd), 
           y = dnorm(qnorm(0.5, high_mean, high_sd), high_mean, high_sd) / 2, 
           label = "Without\nprotective\nmeasures", color = "white", 
           family = "Fira Sans Condensed", fontface = "bold") +
  annotate(geom = "text", x = qnorm(0.5, flat_mean, sd = flat_sd), 
           y = dnorm(qnorm(0.5, flat_mean, sd = flat_sd), flat_mean, sd = flat_sd) / 2, 
           label = "With protective\nmeasures", color = "white", 
           family = "Fira Sans Condensed", fontface = "bold") +
  annotate(geom = "text", x = 45, y = dnorm(flat_mean, flat_mean, sd = flat_sd), 
           label = "Healthcare system capacity", vjust = -0.5, hjust = 0, 
           family = "Fira Sans Condensed", fontface = "bold") +
  labs(x = "Time since first case", 
       y = "# of\ncases",
       title = "Flatten the curve!", 
       subtitle = "Slow down community spread by social distancing",
       caption = "Adapted from the CDC and The Economist\nVisit flattenthecurve.com") +
  scale_x_continuous(expand = c(0, 0)) +
  scale_y_continuous(expand = c(0, 0)) +
  theme_minimal(base_family = "Fira Sans Condensed Light") +
  theme(panel.grid = element_blank(),
        axis.line = element_line(color = "black"),
        axis.text = element_blank(),
        axis.title = element_text(family = "Fira Sans Condensed", face = "bold"),
        axis.title.y = element_text(angle = 0, vjust = 0.5),
        plot.title = element_text(family = "Fira Sans Condensed", face = "bold", size = rel(1.7)),
        plot.subtitle = element_text(size = rel(1.2), color = "grey50"),
        plot.caption = element_text(color = "grey50"))

ggsave("flatten_the_curve.pdf", width = 6, height = 4, units = "in", device = cairo_pdf)
ggsave("flatten_the_curve.png", width = 6, height = 4, units = "in", type = "cairo", dpi = 300)