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| var ACL = function(){ | |
| // Determine the average customer lifespan. To do this, we have to | |
| // determine what constitutes churn and then apply those rules to output | |
| // a snapshot of users vs. churn for each cycle. | |
| // 1. After what period of inactivity (no purchases) is a user likely to never | |
| // make another purchase (estimated churn). | |
| // 2. Removal of the app can be considered clear churn. | |
| // To do this, we look at the ratio of users to churn for each cycle. | |
| var churn = [ | |
| { | |
| users: 10, | |
| churn: 2 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| users: 20, | |
| churn: 3 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| users: 25, | |
| churn: 2 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| users: 50, | |
| churn: 7 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| users: 150, | |
| churn: 8 | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| users: 140, | |
| churn: 6 | |
| } | |
| ]; | |
| // In this example, we've gained 400 users, but lost 28 over a period of six months; | |
| // our churn rate is 7%. Our customer lifecycle is 1 / churn rate, which is 14.28 months (cycles). | |
| return 14.28; | |
| }; | |
| var ARPP = 5; // Average Revenue per Purchase. | |
| var APPC = .25; // Average Purchases per Cycle | |
| var AVPC = ARPP * APPC; // Average Value per Cycle | |
| var ALPC = ACL() // Average Lifespan per Customer | |
| var LTV = ALPC * AVPC; | |
| // $17.85 | |
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