arseniyturin · July 30, 2021 20:07
diff --git a/coin_bayes.py b/coin_bayes.py
 '''
 100 coins / 99 fair + 1 unfair (both heads)
 pick one
 flip 10 times = 10 heads
 what is the probability that this coin is unfair?

           P(A) * P(B|A)
 P(A|B) = ----------------
               P(B)
               
 P(A) = 0.01 - chances of unfair
 P(B|A) = 1 - probability of success given it unfair
 P(B) = (0.99 * 0.5^10) + (0.01 * 1^10) - total success outcomes (fair or unfair)

 P(A|B) = 0.01 / 0.01096 = 0.912

 Answer: there is 91% chance that the coin is unfair
               
 '''
	'''
	100 coins / 99 fair + 1 unfair (both heads)
	pick one
	flip 10 times = 10 heads
	what is the probability that this coin is unfair?

	P(A) * P(B\|A)
	P(A\|B) = ----------------
	P(B)

	P(A) = 0.01 - chances of unfair
	P(B\|A) = 1 - probability of success given it unfair
	P(B) = (0.99 * 0.5^10) + (0.01 * 1^10) - total success outcomes (fair or unfair)

	P(A\|B) = 0.01 / 0.01096 = 0.912

	Answer: there is 91% chance that the coin is unfair

	'''