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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003ePOLAND’S most visible labour market begins shortly after dawn. About 30 women and a similar number of men wait in separate groups beside a road half an hour’s drive south of Warsaw. The eager stand at the kerb, craning their necks to search for cars. The more resigned slump in the shade of a tree or pace about, smoking. When a Volvo pulls up they dash towards it, awaiting offers of work. The youngest is 20, the oldest a gap-toothed 53-year-old. All of them are Ukrainian.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe number of Ukrainians in Poland has soared since fighting began in eastern Ukraine in 2014. There is no definitive figure, but around 1m are estimated to be working in Poland at any given time. Most did not flee the war but its economic consequences: a recession that lasted two years, unemployment and a plunging currency.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThey can earn five times more than at home, picking tomatoes, mixing cement or driving for Uber, the ride-hailing firm. Companies can register them to work for six months at a time, but some, like those at the roadside, work illegally. Ivan, 28, knocks back an energy drink as he waits to choose his next boss. “No sleep!” he explains. “Work, work, work.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEmployers are chipper. A tumbling birth rate and the emigration of 2m Poles to other European Union countries has shrunk the labour supply. Unemployment is at its lowest since 1991 and the economy is surging. The Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers (ZPP) says 5m more workers are needed to sustain growth over the next three decades. As Katarzyna Sidlo of Warsaw’s Centre for Social and Economic Research points out, Ukrainians alone will not be enough to plug the gap, but they help. One businessman says he hires Ukrainian plumbers because they cost half as much as Poles and are “very respectable”.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn 2013 there were only 527 temporary foreign workers in the central Polish town of Kalisz. Now there are nearly 10,700. Most are Ukrainian. In March a Ukrainian priest arrived to minister to the migrants in their own language, one of 15 being posted across Poland. Karolina Pawliczak, the deputy mayor, welcomes the newcomers. “Poles can pick and choose” jobs, she says. Ukrainians “are saving our labour market”.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eVoters are ambivalent about the newcomers. In a survey in 2016, 63% told CBOS, a pollster, that Ukrainians are good for the economy. But a similar number said the government should restrict the flow of migrants from the east. Meanwhile, government ministers invoke the influx of Ukrainians as an excuse for defying EU demands to accept refugees from the Middle East, saying their country is already shouldering the burden of migration from a war-torn country. In fact, most of the Ukrainians are economic migrants from the country’s peaceful areas. Only a few hundred apply for refugee status in Poland each year, and in 2016 just 16 received it.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFirms now fret that the stream of cheap labour could soon dry up. Rules introduced in May allow Ukrainians to travel in the EU (but not Britain and Ireland) for 90 days without a visa. They cannot work, but Polish employers worry that will change, and that many will find black-market jobs in the meantime. In the past few weeks, plenty have visited the Polish offices of Work Service, a temporary staffing agency, asking for help getting work further west.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eZPP wants the government to induce Ukrainians to stay in Poland by granting an amnesty to those working illegally. Alternatively, jokes its president, Cezary Kazmierczak, it should cut off power two nights a week to keep Poles at home in the evening. When a curfew was imposed in the 1980s, the birth rate soared.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"7r96ps1bith62aqhttn06jbu0b4elngk","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/7r96ps1bith62aqhttn06jbu0b4elngk","tegID":"7r96ps1bith62aqhttn06jbu0b4elngk","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T14:49:50Z","dateModified":"2017-08-04T11:45:04Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2017/08/05/the-private-equity-business-learns-to-be-more-flexible","short":"http://econ.st/2jqfe4I","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725778","https://stage.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21725778-financiers-used-changing-others-business-models-tinker-their-own"]},"headline":"The private-equity business learns to be more flexible","subheadline":"Secondary education","description":"Financiers used to changing others’ business models tinker with their own","print":{"headline":"Secondary education","subheadline":"Private equity","description":"Financiers used to changing others’ business models tinker with their own","section":{"id":"/content/h4u9v391l483f78oe4pku4pu3jsqgj9k","tegID":"h4u9v391l483f78oe4pku4pu3jsqgj9k","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:16Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:16Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/finance-and-economics/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/79","https://stage.economist.com/sections/finance-economics"]},"headline":"Finance and economics","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20170805_FNC397.png\" width=\"608\" height=\"625\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"rujma7v2vkjajvjr384l6rh021ke27au\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eTHE private-equity business presents a paradox. Its barons like to boast of revamping the companies they buy. But they themselves have been steadfast to their own business model, centred on funds with a ten-year life. Within this time span, fund managers, known as “general partners” (GPs), commit to buy, manage and sell a clutch of companies; investors commit to lock up their money for the duration. Sometimes GPs or investors chafe at the time constraint. A new segment of the secondary market, “GP-led” deals, has sprung up to help them.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eInvestors wanting to exit a fund early need to find a buyer for their stake in the secondary market. But sometimes none will offer an attractive price. Sometimes also, a fund nearing its expiry date may find itself still holding a large number of its investments. GP-led deals place the onus on fund managers to find buyers.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eSuch transactions have quickly grown from just 10% of the secondary market in 2012 to over one-third this year, according to estimates from Credit Suisse, a bank (see chart). Some such deals offer liquidity to investors during a fund’s “normal” lifetime. For instance, when many investors want to sell out of a fund early, a manager may solicit offers from buyers through a tender process, often getting investors a better price, as in a 2015 deal by Palamon Capital Partners, a British firm. A variant is a “stapled” deal where a firm ties a secondary-market sale to a primary fundraising. In June, Lexington, a secondary investor, agreed to buy out €1.2bn ($1.4bn) from investors in a 2012 fund of BC Partners, a London-based firm, while committing €600m to that firm’s newest fund.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePerhaps the greatest novelty of GP-led deals, however, has been to ease the ten-year straitjacket. Private-equity managers often reckon they could make a better return by holding some assets for longer. But investors usually want their money back as promised, and are reluctant to stick around for much more than an additional year or two. GP-led fund restructurings and spin-outs try to close this gap.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe restructuring market had a rocky start in around 2011. Some of the earliest deals involved poorly performing managers with no plans to set up any new funds. Investors were understandably unhappy at being stuck in “zombie funds”, or even being asked to chip in more.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBut as the market has grown, restructuring and spin-out deals have become a way to provide investors with the liquidity they want, while allowing assets to be managed for longer. The deals now nearly always involve new capital, usually from specialist investors in the private-equity secondary market, such as HarbourVest or Neuberger Berman. So existing investors can be offered choices ranging from cashing out to staying put to investing more.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSuch deals are not necessarily just for strugglers, but have become a tool for fund managers to pursue other goals. For instance, Investindustrial, a firm focused on southern Europe, in March 2017 put some assets into a new fund, largely because it expected better returns from managing its prize asset, PortAventura, a Spanish theme park, for longer. In 2016, Bridgepoint, a British private-equity firm, sold several smaller firms from its 2005 fund to a new fund, as it wanted to focus its efforts on a few investments, such as its crown jewel, Pret A Manger, a sandwich chain, which it wished to take public.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe recent boom has been in part cyclical. In private equity’s core markets of Europe and America, where investors expect continued growth, secondary stakes are selling on average at just a 5% discount to their net asset value, making restructurings look attractive. In South America, by contrast, where the economic outlook is cloudier, the going discount is about 30%, and negotiations over several GP-led restructurings have collapsed.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDavid Atterbury of HarbourVest, however, argues that GP-led deals are far from a temporary phenomenon: investors prize the liquidity they bring, and managers appreciate the newfound flexibility. Credit Suisse reckons private-equity secondary transactions may approach $40bn this year. But according to Preqin, a data provider, private-equity assets stood at nearly $2.6trn worldwide at the end of 2016. The new market has plenty of room to grow.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eClarification (August 4, 2017):\u003c/strong\u003e The article has been amended to clarify that BC Partners’ deal with Lexington has not yet been completed.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"ekh1hi485j7pks8hp5e2fa6rmsclhmjc","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/ekh1hi485j7pks8hp5e2fa6rmsclhmjc","tegID":"ekh1hi485j7pks8hp5e2fa6rmsclhmjc","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-02T15:34:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T12:36:05Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/britain/2017/08/05/a-little-noticed-change-in-britains-housing-market-spells-trouble-for-everybody","short":"http://econ.st/2AIxWIT","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725744","https://stage.economist.com/news/britain/21725744-british-homeowners-move-home-half-frequently-americans-do-little-noticed-change"]},"headline":"A little-noticed change in Britain’s housing market spells trouble for everybody","subheadline":"The rise of the homebody","description":"British homeowners move home half as frequently as Americans do","print":{"headline":"A nation of homebodies","subheadline":"Housing","description":"A little-noticed trend in Britain’s housing market spells trouble for everyone","section":{"id":"/content/2ldk64u3gt7tku874lf6kfi40e2nvts6","tegID":"2ldk64u3gt7tku874lf6kfi40e2nvts6","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:18Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:18Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/britain/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/76","https://stage.economist.com/sections/britain"]},"headline":"Britain","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eTHE market looked ready for a correction. On the eve of the Brexit vote last June the median house price in England was 7.7 times median annual earnings, probably the highest ratio ever recorded. Many assumed that in the uncertainty that followed the referendum, house prices might at last slump. They have not. The market for London’s fanciest properties looks weak and overall price growth has slowed, but Britain’s housing market hardly appears to be in freefall.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePoke beneath the surface, however, and it looks as if trouble is brewing. Britons are buying and selling houses less frequently than they once did. Official data suggest that the rate of residential transactions this year is set to be the lowest since 2013. The number of sales in parts of London is approaching an all-time low as home-buyers become more cautious about their personal finances.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe post-referendum stagnation in the number of sales merely reinforces a long-term trend. Few have noticed, but in recent decades Britons have become markedly less inclined to move house (see chart). The decline in residential transactions may seem unimportant in comparison with the high cost of housing. But it leaves all Britons worse off.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/08/articles/body/20170805_brc336.png\" width=\"608\" height=\"625\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"n84qu42h8r723oirjha516hm3hovvb85\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe 1980s were a golden age of housing turnover. Margaret Thatcher’s government encouraged people to buy their rented council homes; many then sold them and moved elsewhere. Credit boomed as banks jumped into the mortgage market alongside building societies. This made it easier for Britons to take out big home loans and to move up the housing ladder. Yet the rate of home-moving tumbled to its lowest level ever in 2009. At that rate, a typical house would change hands once every 25 years. Few wanted to sell as prices plunged after the onset of the financial crisis in 2008; no one wants to get less for their house than they paid for it.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe causes of the current stasis are numerous. One factor is almost certainly the long-term decline in housing construction. Restrictive planning policy means housebuilders struggle to find open land to develop. Some 50,000 fewer new-build houses come to market each year now than in the 1980s.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDemographic changes are also at work. An ageing population is a less mobile one. The way council tax is levied also gives elderly folk less incentive to downsize. It was last updated in 1993 and the priciest homes are taxed lightly. Meanwhile, more Britons live alone. Since 1981, the share of households with one occupant has risen from 20% to nearly 30%. Singletons are less likely than those with children to need extra space, so they may not need to move up the housing ladder.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother influence is the rising burden of stamp duty. Two decades ago the tax was hardly significant. Yet in the last decade, the average amount of stamp duty charged per residential transaction has risen by 30% in real terms (though recent changes have lightened the load slightly for some). The need to pay thousands of pounds upfront makes upping sticks harder. According to a recent paper from Christian Hilber of the London School of Economics and Teemu Lyytikäinen of the VATT Institute for Economic Research, stamp duty reduces the rate of home-moving by about a fifth. It partly explains why home-owners in Britain move home half as frequently as they do in America, where the equivalent tax is usually less onerous.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe biggest reason of all for the slump in sales, however, may be Britons’ squeezed living standards. In a recent paper Neal Hudson and Brian Green, two property analysts, point out that people can only move up the housing ladder if they have the money to pay the estate agents and have enough for a deposit.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, since the 1980s, the growth rate of real household disposable income has fallen from about 3% a year to 1%. Things have worsened since Britons voted to leave the EU as higher inflation has eaten away at wages. With poor income growth it becomes harder for homeowners to amass the savings necessary to move up the housing ladder. Indeed, the household savings rate recently reached its lowest level since records began in 1963.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eCheap borrowing offsets weak income growth somewhat, making it easier for Britons to afford a home. Since 2007 the Bank of England has cut the base rate, causing the rate on the average variable mortgage to fall from 7% to 4%. But in other ways borrowing is harder than it was. Interest-only mortgages are a thing of the past and regulators have put limits on high loan-to-income mortgages. Home-owners must instead stump up bigger deposits, say Messrs Hudson and Green. The average deposit for first-time buyers, meanwhile, is now roughly equal to the average annual salary.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBroken ladders\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA slow housing market leads to all manner of ills. When people find it hard to offload a house or to acquire a new one, they are less likely to move to a better job or a more productive part of the country. Instead they waste time on long commutes. Our analysis of the labour-force survey suggests that between 2011 and 2016 the number of people who spent at least two hours a day commuting rose by a fifth. All this hits labour productivity, which in Britain has seen measly growth in recent years.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother consequence is inefficient use of the housing stock. One in three of Britain’s houses has two or more spare bedrooms. Yet overcrowding (as measured by the number of people relative to the number of bedrooms) is rising. With grandparents hogging the bigger, better properties, their children struggle to move up the housing ladder.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAn ultra-slow property market is also bad for future generations. For reasons that economists do not yet understand, there is a tight correlation between the number of property transactions and the number of homes built each year (at a ratio of about 10:1). One possible explanation is that those building houses focus their efforts on the top 10% of the market, perhaps because large houses are especially profitable. A low rate of property transactions, therefore, leads to few houses being built. That will do nothing for Britons priced out of the housing market entirely.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, nothing suggests that the rate of housing transactions will rise any time soon. The government has made noises about trying to get more oldies to downsize. Yet in a recent policy paper on housing, there was no mention of any serious policies to encourage them to do so. Meanwhile, inflation will continue to erode incomes. And the uncertainty of Brexit will deepen. The problems caused by Britain’s gummed-up property market look set only to get worse.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"2r6ark1uhbff2lkaesgue5qksm5rapfs","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/2r6ark1uhbff2lkaesgue5qksm5rapfs","tegID":"2r6ark1uhbff2lkaesgue5qksm5rapfs","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T14:49:50Z","dateModified":"2017-08-04T14:17:38Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/briefing/2017/08/05/how-close-is-north-korea-to-having-a-missile-that-can-hit-la","short":"http://econ.st/2AJcTpO","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725764","https://stage.economist.com/news/briefing/21725764-closer-was-previously-thought-and-far-too-close-comfort-how-close-north-korea"]},"headline":"How close is North Korea to having a missile that can hit LA?","subheadline":"Testing, testing…","description":"Closer than was previously thought, and far too close for comfort","print":{"headline":"Testing, testing…","subheadline":"North Korea’s missiles","description":"Kim Jong Un does not yet have a missile that can strike America. 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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eTHE launch of a ballistic missile on July 28th, with the range to hit cities on America’s west coast, provided further chilling evidence of the speed at which North Korea is developing a capability that Donald Trump has declared it would never have. It followed a test of a similar Hwasong-14 two-stage missile on July 4th. Both launches were on a lofted trajectory—the missile travelling more or less straight up rather than around the curve of the Earth. Based on the test’s course and flight time, analysts believe the first missile would have had a normal-trajectory range of about 7,500km, while the second, which flew for 47 minutes and reached an altitude of 3,700km, would have had a range of up to 10,000km while carrying a warhead weighing up to 650kg.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIt is too soon, however, to assert that North Korea is on the brink of being able to threaten, say, Los Angeles, with a reliable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). To do so, it would need to make a warhead compact and light enough to fit into a missile’s nose cone.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eExperts, such as Jeffrey Lewis of the James Martin Centre for Non-Proliferation Studies in California, believe that North Korea can already fit a fission nuclear warhead with a yield of about 20 kilotonnes, the same as the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki, to its short- and medium-range missiles. But so far, there is nothing to suggest that it has yet tested a fusion or thermonuclear weapon despite claims by its leader, Kim Jong Un, that it has. It is clearly working on the technology, though. It may be able to demonstrate this, or at least add a thermonuclear element to boost yield, when it conducts a sixth nuclear test, perhaps before the end of the year. A thermonuclear warhead small enough to be carried by the Hwasong-14 could easily have a yield of 300 kilotonnes, enough to devastate an area of over 70 square kilometres.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20170805_FBM999_0.png\" width=\"608\" height=\"701\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"ns7qdt176fc2f2matenr5f656bsd122v\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThere is also scepticism that North Korea has yet produced a re-entry vehicle that would protect the warhead on its path through the Earth’s atmosphere at velocities travelled by ICBMs. In an analysis of the latest launch, Michael Elleman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies has examined video from a weather camera in Hokkaido, Japan, which captured the glowing re-entry vehicle on film as it sped earthwards. As it hits the Earth’s atmosphere, it starts to shed “small radiant objects” and “incandescent vapour”. It then dims and disappears.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBased on its current progress, North Korea will probably overcome such problems sooner rather than later. The latest assessment by America’s Defence Intelligence Agency, reported by the \u003cem\u003eWashington Post\u003c/em\u003e three days before the most recent missile test, is that North Korea could have a workable ICBM some time in 2018—at least two years before the previous consensus had estimated it would do so.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe reactions to the missile test were mostly predictable. Two B1 strategic bombers were dispatched from an American base in Guam to fly over South Korea. A THAAD anti-missile battery in Alaska, like the one recently deployed in South Korea, successfully carried out a test interception. In two tweets Mr Trump wrote: “I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet…they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA few days later Rex Tillerson, America’s secretary of state, struck a more emollient note towards North Korea, saying: “We do not seek a regime change…we hope that at some point they will begin to understand that and we would like to sit and have a dialogue with them.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eParadoxically, in South Korea, conservative opposition parties have called on the country’s recently elected liberal president, Moon Jae-in, to abandon his twin-track policy of imposing sanctions on North Korea while still offering dialogue. Mr Moon wants to see a greater level of military readiness for anything that might happen. But, like Mr Tillerson, he is still insisting that he would not close the door on talks with Mr Kim, should he respond. Among the options under consideration is a relaxation of an agreement between America and South Korea that limits the range and payload of the South’s conventional missiles.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIf the reaction to the test on July 28th consisted largely of gestures and vague threats, that is because the options are either improbable (constructive talks with Mr Kim), feeble (tougher sanctions) or terrifying (pre-emptive military action).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFor all that, fears are growing that Mr Kim and Mr Trump are now on a collision course which could result in a war that neither wants, but which both may find difficult to avoid. Rodger Baker of Stratfor, a geopolitical consulting firm, says that Mr Kim wants to prove he has a credible ICBM capability, while America has to show that it has the military will to prevent it. He believes that North Korea would have to respond in some way to an American strike, even of the most limited kind.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, warns that America’s ability to deal with all North Korea’s nuclear facilities “is very uncertain”. He adds that anticipating what the North might do with its conventional weapons is like “trying to describe a very complex game of multidimensional chess in terms tic-tac-toe”. The problem, he says, is that there are many ways and reasons for each side to escalate the fighting once it begins. Stopping it would be much more difficult.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePeople with military experience of Korea “paint a picture that should scare the hell out of anyone in the US who was contemplating an attack,” says Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution. “Are we over-estimating North Korea?” he asks. “I don’t want to find out.”\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"aell332qc4eqa0kc962a2v2fm4pqrhk5","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/aell332qc4eqa0kc962a2v2fm4pqrhk5","tegID":"aell332qc4eqa0kc962a2v2fm4pqrhk5","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T08:33:26Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T10:41:50Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/2017/08/05/output-prices-and-jobs","short":"http://econ.st/2AGVEFw","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725772","https://stage.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21725772-output-prices-and-jobs"]},"headline":"Output, prices and jobs","description":"","print":{"headline":"Output, prices and jobs","section":{"id":"/content/5tid6aob4kglh030jftj69gb3210l68g","tegID":"5tid6aob4kglh030jftj69gb3210l68g","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:20Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:20Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/96","https://stage.economist.com/sections/economic-financial-indicators"]},"headline":"Economic and financial indicators","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eWHAT does it say about the fairness of a vote when a senior election official is murdered a week before polling day? On August 8th Kenyans will pick a president, governors, MPs and senators. Yet instead of being excited about the chance to elect a new government, many are terrified. On July 31st Chris Msando, the chief technician in charge of the electronic voting system, was found dead in Nairobi, the capital, his arm broken and his body displaying signs of torture.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWho killed Mr Msando is far from clear. The opposition blames the government; a spokesman for the president calls this accusation unfounded. The killing removes one of the few people trusted to ensure that the voting system works and sends a message to other electoral officials that they, too, are at risk. The chairman of the electoral commission said that the voting system would be tamper-proof, and the government announced extra security measures to protect election officials.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eKenya’s democracy is one of the most vibrant and competitive in Africa. But that comes at a price. Elections are bitterly fought and often violent. The results are nearly always disputed. This murder suggests that this year will be no different. At worst, it raises fears that violence of the sort that led to the deaths of perhaps 1,400 people and paralysed the country after the 2007 election could happen again.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/08/articles/body/20170805_MAC833.png\" width=\"1280\" height=\"556\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"l1s3d484gij386p773574mpju05p08l3\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe incumbent this year is Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Jomo Kenyatta, Kenya’s first president following independence in 1963. Mr Kenyatta took over in 2013, the first election after the violence, by making a pact with William Ruto, a populist politician from the Rift Valley. After the 2007 election the pair were investigated and indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Mr Kenyatta, who belongs to Kenya’s biggest tribe, the Kikuyu, was accused of organising the mass killing of people from other tribes; Mr Ruto, who is from the Kalenjin, the third-biggest group, was accused of organising the murder of Kikuyus. Yet in 2013 they fought a joint campaign in which they claimed that the charges were part of a Western-led plot to take over Kenya. They won easily. The ICC charges were later dropped, after key witnesses vanished.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis time, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto ought to be ahead again by a wide margin. As incumbents they have the power of patronage. Most Kenyans vote on tribal lines; politicians win by delivering goodies to their ethnic kin. Many politicians use money looted from the state to pay off local leaders who deliver votes en masse. Well-funded ones can afford helicopters to whizz them around the country, and gifts for voters, as well as cars to take them to the polls. Per head, campaign spending in Kenya may exceed that of America, a country 40 times richer.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eYet their pitch seems have fallen flat, at least outside their strongholds, where they can still draw thousands. At a rally in Nairegie Enkare, a small town at the edge of the Masai Mara game reserve, your correspondent counted six helicopters and twice as many brightly branded SUVs. But the crowd, all sporting baseball caps in the red of Jubilee, Mr Kenyatta’s party, was thin. “This is less people than a local council meeting,” mocked Jackson Surun, standing at the edge of the crowd. “They bring these people from somewhere. No one here will vote for him.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe opposition meanwhile has unified. It is led by Raila Odinga, the son of another independence-era stalwart, Oginga Odinga. Mr Odinga is from the Luo, a tribe whose members feel they have been underrepresented in government since independence. He spent much of the 1980s in prison, accused of organising a failed coup. He lost elections in 2007 and 2013, in each case claiming to have been cheated. At 72 years old, this is (presumably) his last chance to be president.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr Kenyatta’s first term has not been a complete disaster. A new Chinese-built railway connecting the coast to Nairobi opened in May; new roads have stretched across the country; electrification and internet access have spread quickly. But corruption is still endemic; Kenya remains tied up in a vicious war in next-door Somalia, and growth has not created many formal jobs. And this year the cost of food has spiked, thanks to a drought. As a result, though most polls still put Mr Kenyatta ahead, they are a lot closer than expected.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis heightens the tension. Mr Odinga “is desperate to achieve victory”, says Murithi Mutiga, an analyst with International Crisis Group, an NGO. “Not only him but his own ethnic community, the Luos, who feel unfairly excluded, marginalised for five decades, their best leaders assassinated…they feel this is their last chance.” Conversely, if Mr Kenyatta loses, it will threaten his family’s substantial business interests. For Mr Ruto, who wants to stand for president in 2022, it would be worse: “His career will almost certainly be over.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn the 2013 election Mr Kenyatta was accused of rigging the vote to ensure he did not have to fight a second round (under Kenya’s constitution, if no candidate wins more than 50% there is a run-off). But few doubted he was genuinely ahead. And though Mr Odinga disputed the result, he did so at Kenya’s Supreme Court, while encouraging his supporters to stay at home.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis time things could be bumpier. In January Mr Odinga told reporters “we are not going to take it lying down” if the election is rigged. Some of his allies go further. “If they steal this election, this country will burn,” says Ledama Olekina, a candidate in Narok County. Mr Odinga and co refuse to say what they will do if they deem the election to have been stolen—but they have made it clear that this is what they expect. For over a year, they have claimed to reveal ever more dastardly plots to rig the vote. At their rallies, a popular chant is “no Raila, no peace”.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn Nairobi’s slums, where some of the worst violence was concentrated in 2007, people are already nervous. “I will be leaving very soon,” says Catherine Kalekye, sitting braiding a child’s hair at the edge of Mathare, a neighbourhood of tin-roofed shacks in the east of the city. Many people are going to the countryside; others have moved within the slum to be closer to their kinsfolk. “We will go to Kiambu and leave the men to fight,” says Jane Wambui, a 40-year-old Kikuyu clothes trader. She fears Luos will seize the opportunity of protests to take revenge on their (typically Kikuyu) landlords. “It is not safe…they could come and rape me, rape my daughter.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eYet despite the fears, there are reasons to hope the fallout will be manageable. Some 180,000 soldiers, police and even national-park rangers have been drafted in to maintain security. In 2007 the worst violence happened in the Rift Valley, where a host of tribes live side by side, nursing deep resentment over the allocation of land that dates back to colonial days. Today, the two most powerful groups, the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu, are in an uneasy peace.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, even a peaceful election is unlikely to bring much relief in the long run. If Mr Kenyatta wins, his second term will be dominated by a succession battle. Corruption will persist. 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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eElmet.\u003c/strong\u003e By Fiona Mozley. \u003cem\u003eJohn Murray; 310 pages; £10.99.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“DADDY and Cathy and I lived in a small house that Daddy built with materials from the land here about.” From this apparently simple premise, Fiona Mozley (pictured) unfurls a dark and delicate fairy-tale of contemporary Britain that has propelled “Elmet”, the young author’s debut novel, onto the longlist for this year’s Man Booker prize for fiction.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe novel takes its title from the Celtic kingdom that once covered Yorkshire, where ancient forests harboured mythical green men and one “Robyn Hode”. In Ms Mozley’s vision, vestiges of that tooth-and-claw order still exist in today’s world: the powerful prey on the weak in lawless pockets of the country. Her novel pits an odd family of squatters against the local landowner in an isolated copse that, like the depressed neighbouring towns, cannot be seen by passengers streaking by on the London-to-Edinburgh railway line.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNarrated with almost fanatical precision by Daniel, the 14-year-old son, the book draws readers into the family’s “strange, sylvan otherworld” on the margins of society. “Daddy” has withdrawn with his teenage children—motherless, untutored, nearly feral—to the woods. A “bearded giant” who once served as the landowner’s enforcer, Daddy is a towering figure, a Robin Hood with huge fists. He fights other men for cash in hidden remnants of the wild that are frequented by travellers and others scrabbling to survive.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEach carefully chosen detail illuminates the novel’s themes of violence and exploitation. Yet far from being bleak, “Elmet” is beautiful. Ms Mozley writes with clarity and insight, and her descriptions of the natural world and human relationships are both specific and profound. Alongside the pervasive brutality there is innocence, intimacy and love. To his children, John Smythe stands as a defender and protector. “That, after all, was why Daddy had moved us here,” Daniel explains. “He wanted to keep us separate, in ourselves, apart from the world.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAlas, the world will not let them be. With very few missteps, this accomplished novel builds to a devastating conclusion. Like another great work about a family on the margins, “Housekeeping”, the 1980 debut by Marilynne Robinson, an American novelist and essayist, “Elmet” is a quiet explosion of a book, exquisite and unforgettable. It is hard not to feel that at 29, Ms Mozley has only just begun.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"o8acdchoeari0p5on75iqr31h025n8oj","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/o8acdchoeari0p5on75iqr31h025n8oj","tegID":"o8acdchoeari0p5on75iqr31h025n8oj","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":true,"dateCreated":"2017-08-02T15:30:40Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T12:33:02Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2017/08/05/bitcoin-divides-to-rule","short":"http://econ.st/2AILSTh","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725747","https://stage.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21725747-crypto-currencys-split-two-versions-may-be-followed-others-bitcoin"]},"headline":"Bitcoin divides to rule","subheadline":"Knives and forks","description":"The crypto-currency’s split into two versions may be followed by others","print":{"headline":"Knives and forks","subheadline":"Bitcoin’s civil war","description":"The first split of the digital currency may not be the last","section":{"id":"/content/h4u9v391l483f78oe4pku4pu3jsqgj9k","tegID":"h4u9v391l483f78oe4pku4pu3jsqgj9k","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:16Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:16Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/finance-and-economics/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/79","https://stage.economist.com/sections/finance-economics"]},"headline":"Finance and economics","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eCOMPARED with Brexit, Bitexit seems a piece of cake. On August 1st, without much agonising or awkward negotiations, a group of Bitcoin activists and entrepreneurs managed to create a second version of the crypto-currency. It immediately gained a following: as \u003cem\u003eThe Economist\u003c/em\u003e went to press, a unit of “Bitcoin Cash” had a price of $460 and tokens worth $7.6bn were in circulation (although that is still much smaller than Bitcoin classic, which stood at about $2,700 and nearly $45bn).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis “fork”, as such events are called, came earlier than expected. But it is how insiders had expected a two-year-old conflict over the future of Bitcoin to end. At the heart of this “civil war” was the question of how to increase the capacity of the system, which can handle only up to seven transactions per second. The new version is able to process more than 50 per second, but otherwise works much like the original one.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eWill Bitcoin Cash be more than just another “altcoin”, as the many existing clones of the crypto-currency are called? It is backed by Chinese “miners”, firms that provide the computing power to confirm payments and mint new digital coins. They have been unhappy with how the original system has been managed by its developers—and made some further technical tweaks to ensure that the new Bitcoin survives. The followers of the two versions will now fight over which can claim to be the “real” Bitcoin.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMore interesting is what the fork might mean for the broader ecosystem of crypto-currencies, of which there are now hundreds. It has long been assumed that crypto-land would be dominated by one currency, Bitcoin, because of network effects: the more existing users it has, the more attractive it becomes to new ones. But Emin Gun Sirer of Cornell University says the split shows that this need not be true. Provided a group of crypto-cognoscenti has the will, the skills and oodles of computing power, it can conjure a new digital currency into existence—and, perhaps, even create value.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis week’s fork has made Bitcoin holders richer: they get an amount of the new version equal to their holdings of the old sort; and at least for now, both together are worth more than the old one alone. For this reason alone, expect another split in November when the old Bitcoin system may get an upgrade.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"1fvdq56knkacr8372fdg0ert0tbhkick","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/1fvdq56knkacr8372fdg0ert0tbhkick","tegID":"1fvdq56knkacr8372fdg0ert0tbhkick","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T08:33:29Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T10:42:19Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/2017/08/05/markets","short":"http://econ.st/2jqMkS3","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725775","https://stage.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21725775-markets"]},"headline":"Markets","description":"","print":{"headline":"Markets","section":{"id":"/content/5tid6aob4kglh030jftj69gb3210l68g","tegID":"5tid6aob4kglh030jftj69gb3210l68g","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:20Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:20Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/96","https://stage.economist.com/sections/economic-financial-indicators"]},"headline":"Economic and financial indicators","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eIT WAS March 2019. America and South Korea were conducting an annual large-scale military exercise, Foal Eagle, involving nearly 20,000 American troops and about 300,000 Korean counterparts. The drill was taking place against a backdrop of continuing missile tests by the North Koreans.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOver the previous two years, the regime of Kim Jong Un had successfully test-launched several intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The most recent was another two-stage rocket that analysts reckoned could reach any city in America. It carried what appeared to be a credible re-entry vehicle to shield its nuclear warhead as it plummeted through the Earth’s atmosphere towards its target and from which decoys could be fired to bamboozle missile defences.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eA seventh nuclear test in January had confirmed that the warhead carried by the missile would in time be a thermonuclear one with the power to destroy all life within an area of 70 square kilometres. Some intelligence reports had suggested that the next test the North Koreans would conduct, likely to coincide with the climax of Foal Eagle, might include a high-altitude nuclear explosion of the kind that America and the Soviet Union had conducted until 1962 to test their weapons.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhereas other new nuclear states, such as Pakistan and India, had been content to carry out all their testing underground, Mr Kim had boasted since the start of the year that he would soon provide final proof that would convince the world to respect North Korea’s nuclear capability. If the North really carried out such a test, the electromagnetic pulse it would cause could take out satellites and damage power stations on the ground.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFor Donald Trump, that would cross a red line. The moment was now or never. Responding to claims by Mr Kim at the outset of what was to become his troubled presidency that North Korea was in the final stages of developing an ICBM, he had declared on Twitter, “It won’t happen!” In June 2017, a few days before North Korea conducted its first ICBM test, Mr Trump had stated that the “era of strategic patience” with Mr Kim was over.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSince then, America had tightened sanctions against the North Korean regime, including taking action against Chinese and Russian firms trading with it and cutting off sources of finance generated by Mr Kim’s criminal networks overseas. But with China only willing to offer token help, it had proved too little and too late to slow the North’s rapid development of nuclear missiles.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe president had thus far heeded the warnings of his defence secretary, Jim Mattis, and his national security adviser, H.R. McMaster. The risks of taking military action were too great, they had argued. But Mr Trump was no longer willing to listen. Mr Mattis was said to be on the brink of resignation, partly because he did not believe that Mr Kim was about to carry out an atmospheric test. Mr McMaster had been fired and replaced by John Bolton, a hawkish former ambassador to the UN who had been a prime mover for action to overthrow Saddam Hussein because of his supposed arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. Mr Bolton had told the president that a high-altitude test was imminent. He had long argued for doing whatever it would take to bring about regime change in North Korea.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr Trump did not necessarily want to go that far. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, had warned him that there would be “serious consequences” if such a step was being considered. It was not clear whether China would step in to help North Korea as it had in the past (the view in Washington was that it would not). What was not in doubt was its hostility to anything that might bring American forces north of the 38th parallel and close to China’s border.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSouth Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, had at first been strongly against any pre-emptive strike, as his country would bear the brunt of any subsequent miscalculation by either side. But after bullying from Washington, he had reluctantly withdrawn his opposition. Mr Trump felt very strongly that he needed to show his supporters at home that he could still make tough decisions.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo that end, he had asked his military advisers to come up with a plan that would show he meant business; powerful enough to make Mr Kim think twice before hitting back, but not so drastic as to trigger war. After all, Mr Kim would surely realise that to do so would risk entering a cycle of escalation that would lead inexorably to his defeat and the obliteration of his dynasty—the very thing his nuclear programme had been designed to prevent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe preferred option would have been to have shot down the missile in its boost or ascent phase with interceptors fired from US Navy destroyers. But new SM3-Block2A interceptors, which might have been fast enough to do the job, were not yet ready for deployment. The plan the Pentagon had therefore come up with was to fire a salvo of cruise missiles from a submarine in the Sea of Japan, destroying the missile on the ground. Much would depend on getting prompt intelligence from surveillance satellites and high-flying drones to hit the launch site before the missile could be fired. Any subsequent tests, Mr Kim would be told, would get the same treatment. A belligerent response by Mr Kim would be met by an attack on his nuclear and missile facilities.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr Trump was warned, however, that although Mr Kim was thought to be rational, he faced political problems of his own and would have to react in some way. According to the most optimistic scenario, Mr Kim might feel that he could get away with a gesture, such as firing missiles at the outer islands, in an operation similar to the shelling of Yeonpyeong in 2010. He might also conclude that he could anyway stop testing for now, as he had credibly acquired the means to hit the continental United States.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe operation appeared at first to succeed. There was little unintended damage and not much indication whether the missile had been armed (nuclear weapons are designed to resist accidental explosion—the warhead is encased in a sturdy re-entry vehicle and detonation sequences have to be minutely timed). Despite the usual threats from Mr Kim to “wipe America off the face of the Earth” and to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire”, nothing appeared to happen. Mr Trump’s poll ratings spiked and he tweeted: “Fat Kim just got what he’s been asking for. SAD!” Triumphantly, he berated “my generals” for their caution which had stopped him from doing something similar sooner.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBut even as Mr Trump was bragging about the success of the strike, Mr Kim was ordering elite units from his 180,000-strong special operations force to carry out a series of hit-and-run attacks on targets in the South. Some would infiltrate by using a network of tunnels running beneath the demilitarised zone (DMZ); others would be inserted from the sea by mini-submarines or flown in by ancient hedge-hopping An-2 biplanes that were hard for modern radars to spot. Meanwhile, North Korea’s navy had also begun laying mines in both the West and East seas in an effort to disrupt trade. A series of cyber-attacks on South Korea’s critical infrastructure also appeared to be under way.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHolding their nerve gas\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNorth Korea’s aim was to stop short of actions, such as releasing nerve gas in the outskirts of Seoul, that would prompt an all-out response from the Americans and their ally, but to do just enough to generate a sense of panic and uncertainty among South Korean civilians. Mr Kim’s advisers had told him that their analysis, based on their contacts in the South, was that this would generate huge pressure on the South Korean government to veto any further escalation that might lead to outright war.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThat turned out to be a grave miscalculation. The allies could not be sure what Mr Kim planned next, so they had to prepare for the possibility that sabotage attacks were a prelude to a major offensive. With that in mind, the evacuation of foreign nationals, mainly from Seoul, had begun. These included some 150,000 American civilians, over 40,000 Japanese and up to 1m Chinese citizens. The evacuation was intended to send a strong message to the North that events were developing a momentum of their own.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAmerican and South Korean commanders had recommended to their governments that they should prepare for the worst. The military exercises already under way were intended to practice OPLAN 5015, a classified scheme drawn up in response to the growing missile threat. The drill, they advised, could rapidly be turned into reality. Whereas previous war plans had been premised on the belief that a new conflict would be fought along similar lines to the first Korean war (with large units first deployed in defensive formations before counter-attacking into the North), the new plan called for precision strikes and special forces acting behind enemy lines.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe first requirement would be to suppress North Korea’s surprisingly lethal integrated air-defence system, which fields, along with Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles, the indigenously produced and highly capable KN-06. With that out of the way, missiles, smart bombs and huge “bunker busters” would rain down on nuclear sites, missile launchers and command posts while South Korean special forces carried out “decapitation” raids to kill North Korea’s leaders. The idea was that by striking pre-emptively, any war would be both limited and short.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe problem was that the commanders could only be moderately sure that their plan would work. Apart from the effort required to disable Mr Kim’s air defences, an almost complete dearth of reliable human intelligence meant that there might be secret nuclear sites that were not on the target list. Add to that North Korea’s extraordinarily mountainous terrain and its tunnelling skills, honed over the past 60 years, and there was a good chance that some nuclear facilities would remain intact. In addition, missiles on mobile launchers could be hidden deep in caves.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAn air of superiority\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTherefore, rather than press ahead with OPLAN 5015 immediately, American commanders decided that they should bring at least another 500 tactical aircraft into the theatre, both from carriers and from bases in America. They would be needed to maintain the sortie rate required to destroy North Korea’s air defences and then hit all the other targets, including both the ones that were already identified and also others that would emerge. Although it might take a few weeks, it would signal to North Korea the seriousness of their intent and might persuade Mr Kim not to press ahead with a wider attack.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr Kim was aware that time was against him. At this stage, he too hoped to avoid an all-out war, which beneath his usual bombast he knew he might lose. But the build-up of forces in the South, especially the rapidly increasing airpower that would soon allow his adversary to launch a pre-emptive attack against his most important weapons, convinced him that he had to fire a powerful warning shot of his own.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWith over 14,000 artillery pieces, about 1,000 of them positioned in caves and bunkers within range of Seoul, he could do a lot of damage quickly. But unleashing the kind of barrage that his regime had threatened in the past would take him rapidly past the point of no return. He also had to decide how much of his long-range artillery force of 170mm guns and both 240mm and 300mm multiple-rocket launchers he was prepared to expose at this stage to counter-battery fire from the South. He therefore opted for a limited salvo that would last under an hour before pulling back his artillery to positions where it would be less vulnerable.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHis message to Mr Trump was that this was just a taste of what South Korea and its allies could expect if he continued with his aggressive war plans. It failed to have the effect that Mr Kim was hoping for. Despite hints that he might stop there, with several thousand civilian and military casualties already sustained, American and South Korean commanders had to take action in case this was just the prelude to an all-out artillery barrage.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBased on attempts to model the effects of such an attack, they believed that in just a few hours up to 100,000 people would be killed in Seoul and perhaps many more if they did not act fast. That meant putting OPLAN 5015 into action immediately and with it a warning directly from Mr Trump to Mr Kim that, if he launched a missile believed to be carrying a nuclear warhead, he could expect a swift and devastating nuclear response that would “remove him and his country from the map.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe ferocity of the initial assault stunned Mr Kim. Large parts of his massive but technologically crude military infrastructure started disappearing. Tank divisions he had ordered south were sitting ducks in the narrow valleys they were forced to pass through. Any artillery that had been left in the open was being systematically destroyed by witheringly accurate counter-battery fire. Missile launchers supposedly hidden in caves were being pulverised by huge bunker-busting bombs. Twice Mr Kim had narrowly avoided being blown apart himself, when bombs had hit command bunkers minutes after his departure.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20170805_FBP003_0.jpg\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"8lpce073aul6hjliave5o892i7ijuaqp\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eFaced with the imminent destruction of his regime, Mr Kim decided to go down fighting. The artillery he had held back began its bombardment of Seoul. A number of the shells and rockets had chemical warheads. Special forces already in the South were ordered to release poison gas in populated areas. Rumours rapidly spread of the use of biological weapons.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMost fatefully, Mr Kim, realising that his time would soon be up, had made up his mind to launch what remained of his nuclear arsenal. He cared little about the consequences either for his enemies or his own long-suffering people. He lived just long enough to know that neither of his two ICBMs had left its launch pad and three Musudan intermediate-range missiles, aimed at Tokyo and the American base at Okinawa, had been shot down by Patriot batteries in Japan before they could reach their targets. The new THAAD system and Patriot interceptors in South Korea had taken care of several medium-range Pukguksong-2 missiles. But to his satisfaction, two short-range missiles, hidden like needles in haystacks among multiple salvoes of conventionally armed rockets, had got through to Seoul.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe price of defeat\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe initial death toll was put at 300,000, but the effects of radiation would mean that many more would die in the months ahead, including large numbers of American civilians and service personnel. Mr Trump was advised that he had no option other than to retaliate with a nuclear strike on the North. The decision was taken to use America’s latest nuclear bomb, the guided B61-12, dropped by a B2 stealth bomber. It was both highly accurate and could have its explosive power dialled down to reduce civilian casualties and fallout. At least that was the hope.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAfter four had been dropped, North Korea’s war was over. Mr Kim and most of his high command had been vaporised in their bunkers, his missile force and nearly all his artillery had disappeared. Despite the use of relatively low-yield weapons, military casualties were in the hundreds of thousands. Over a million people were trying to leave Pyongyang, the capital, in case of further attack. With order breaking down and food supplies getting scarce, China found itself facing a humanitarian catastrophe on its border. It claimed that lethal radioactive material was being blown into Chinese cities by disrupted weather.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNobody knew how an appalled President Xi would respond. The shock sent stockmarkets across the world reeling, foreshadowing a global recession to come. Mr Trump, however, was undaunted. He tweeted: “Nuke attack on Seoul by evil Kim was BAD! Had no choice but to nuke him back. But thanks to my actions, America is safe again!”\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"t0q7gml40fgn36nbadngc2v4uo4u647s","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/t0q7gml40fgn36nbadngc2v4uo4u647s","tegID":"t0q7gml40fgn36nbadngc2v4uo4u647s","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T14:50:02Z","dateModified":"2017-08-17T10:23:02Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/united-states/2017/08/05/is-pregnancy-in-america-much-deadlier-than-in-other-rich-countries","short":"http://econ.st/2AJEFTa","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725832","https://stage.economist.com/news/united-states/21725832-question-harder-answer-you-might-think-pregnancy-america-much-deadlier"]},"headline":"Is pregnancy in America much deadlier than in other rich countries?","subheadline":"A painful puzzle","description":"The question is harder to answer than you might think","print":{"headline":"A painful puzzle","subheadline":"Maternal deaths","description":"Is pregnancy in America much deadlier than in other rich countries?","section":{"id":"/content/h4j4itd8schld2m55dnrjg1ro8nlttoc","tegID":"h4j4itd8schld2m55dnrjg1ro8nlttoc","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:28Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:28Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/united-states/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/71","https://stage.economist.com/sections/united-states"]},"headline":"United States","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eFEW things are more tragic than the death of a woman in pregnancy or childbirth. In America, as in other rich countries, such deaths are extremely rare. Nonetheless, 700-800 pregnant women and new mothers die each year. By some measures, America’s maternal mortality is several times higher than in rich European countries. By other measures, however, America has the same rate as Britain.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOne bit of the puzzle is what counts as a maternal death. The standard definition used in international comparisons, such as those published by the World Health Organisation, is a death from complications of pregnancy if the death occurs between the time a woman becomes pregnant and six weeks after her pregnancy ends.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn rich countries, these deaths are tallied from vital-registration systems which in turn compile data from death certificates. These, however, are known to undercount maternal deaths, partly because doctors must select a cause of death from thousands of codes. They are more likely to consider the subset reserved for medical problems caused by pregnancy when the form has a checkbox asking whether the woman had been pregnant.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAmerica added this checkbox to its standard death certificate in 2003, though it took more than a decade for all states to adopt it. It has been a mixed blessing, says Andreea Creanga of Johns Hopkins University. A recent study found that its growing use accounted for 80% of the steep rise in maternal mortality recorded in 2000-14. Although many maternal deaths that would otherwise go unrecorded are now tallied thanks to the checkbox, it is also often marked erroneously—showing recent pregnancy on the death certificates of women who died in their 50s, for example.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAccording to data from death certificates, America’s rate is 21 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. In Britain, which does not use the pregnancy checkbox, the rate is four to five times lower. It is a rate that British health authorities do not consider reliable.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBecause death certificates do a poor job in identifying maternal deaths, some countries, including America, Britain and France, use alternative systems to track maternal mortality. These systems cast a wide net to find all deaths that might count as maternal. They gather reports from hospitals, coroners, newspapers and even tips from ordinary citizens. Experts review the medical records for all deaths that are found. Only those that are clearly a result of health problems caused by pregnancy are tallied as maternal deaths. If the chain of events that led to a woman’s death started with asthma, for example, the death would be included only if the pregnancy caused the asthma or made it worse.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn America this type of detailed system, run by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), counts maternal deaths that occur up to a year after pregnancy. (Deaths resulting from pregnancy, such as suicides caused by post-partum depression, can strike many months after delivery.) By that measure, America’s maternal mortality rate in 2011-13 (the latest period for which data have been published) was 17 deaths per 100,000 live births. Maternal deaths tallied in the same way in Britain for 2012-14 result in a mortality rate that is almost exactly the same.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBritain’s system is better at detecting maternal deaths, if only because America’s system relies on adding up numbers from 50 states with varying capacity for the task of collecting data. What is clear, however, is that nobody really knows just how much riskier pregnancy in America may be than in other rich countries.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCorrection (August 17th, 2017):\u003c/strong\u003e An earlier version of this piece stated that an American woman is more likely to be struck by lightning than to die in childbirth. That is incorrect, and has been removed. Apologies. \u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"ppe6egn2k7bjcdpp1apmssr19hflvoi8","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/ppe6egn2k7bjcdpp1apmssr19hflvoi8","tegID":"ppe6egn2k7bjcdpp1apmssr19hflvoi8","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T14:49:50Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T16:04:04Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/books-and-arts/2017/08/05/modern-american-elites-have-come-to-favour-inconspicuous-consumption","short":"http://econ.st/2jqXkio","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725751","https://stage.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21725751-new-book-looks-how-expenditure-has-changed-among-americas-affluent-modern-american"]},"headline":"Modern American elites have come to favour inconspicuous consumption","subheadline":"How to spend it","description":"A new book looks at how expenditure has changed among America’s affluent","print":{"headline":"How to spend it","subheadline":"Expenditure among the affluent","section":{"id":"/content/rvj2s19g2lkbek4tevm6sn1va1se84sl","tegID":"rvj2s19g2lkbek4tevm6sn1va1se84sl","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:35Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:35Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/books-and-arts/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/89","https://stage.economist.com/sections/books-arts"]},"headline":"Books and arts","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe Sum of Small Things: A Theory of the Aspirational Class.\u003c/strong\u003e By Elizabeth Currid-Halkett. \u003cem\u003ePrinceton University Press; 254 pages; $29.95 and £24.95.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSTATUS symbols are as old as humanity itself. It was only once ancient Rome became rich enough for plebeians to decorate their homes that elites sought to do one better by installing mosaics in their villas; in Victorian England working-class women began to don worsted stockings to mimic the silk hosiery of the 1%. At the end of the 19th century Thorstein Veblen, an American sociologist, decried the “conspicuous leisure” of the robber barons of his age, who set themselves apart through their ability to avoid labour; he went on to bemoan the “conspicuous consumption” of the working classes seeking to imitate the wealthy’s access to luxury goods.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eConspicuous consumption persists today. But just as the patricians of classical times changed their habits once the masses gained the ability to copy them, so too have modern American elites recoiled from accumulating mere goods now that globalisation has made them affordable to the middle class. Instead, argues Elizabeth Currid-Halkett, a professor at the University of Southern California, in “The Sum of Small Things”, they have begun consuming the fruits of “conspicuous production”:socially worthy things like fair-trade coffee. They also emphasise “inconspicuous consumption”, of services like education. Far from making the world more egalitarian, this shift, in particular, threatens to entrench modern elites’ privileged position more effectively than the habits of their predecessors ever did.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAs inequality has increased over the years, so have researchers’ attempts to grapple with its causes and consequences. Ms Currid-Halkett distinguishes herself by bridging the divide between qualitative and quantitative approaches. Her book has no shortage of anecdotes to illustrate cultural trends and it digs deep into the detail of the Consumer Expenditure Survey, administered by the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Using the survey’s data from thousands of respondents, she paints a remarkably fine-grained portrait of how the spending habits of Americans have evolved over the decades.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDefining “conspicuous consumption” as “apparel, watches, jewellery, cars and other socially visible goods”, she finds that even though the poor must dedicate much of their income to basic necessities, they devote a higher share of their total spending to conspicuous consumption than the rich do. And the trend is gaining steam. Between 1996 and 2014 the richest 1% fell further behind the national average in the percentage of their spending dedicated to bling. The middle income quintile went the other way: by 2014 they spent 35% more than the average as a percentage of their annual expenditure.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRather than filling garages with flashy cars, the data show, today’s rich devote their budgets to less visible but more valuable ends. Chief among them is education for their children: the top 10% now allocate almost four times as much of their spending to school and university as they did in 1996, whereas for other groups the figure has hardly budged. They also invest heavily in domestic services such as housekeepers, freeing up time that the less fortunate must spend on chores.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRather than frittering away that precious leisure time on frivolities, as Veblen’s leisure class did, they devote it to enriching experiences, like attending the opera, holidaying in far-off lands and working out at fancy gyms. Their children, by tagging along and thus absorbing this “cultural capital”, develop the sophistication needed to win admission to selective universities, vastly increasing the odds that they will form the next generation’s elite. The modern equivalent of Victorian worsted-stocking wearers are hipsters, who imitate the wealthy’s penchant for farmers’ markets and fair-trade lattes, even if they cannot afford a cruise to Antarctica.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“The Sum of Small Things” both unearths evocative differences between big American cities—for example, Los Angeles leads in bottled-water consumption, while New York does in spending on shoes—and makes clear that the “aspirational class” Ms Currid-Halkett profiles is almost exclusively coastal and urban. However, that may yield a lopsided portrait of the top of the income pile: largely absent from her tale are the business-minded rich in politically conservative states.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe reader learns that residents of Dallas and Houston dedicate unusually low shares of spending to housing costs and to fresh fruit, and a relatively high portion to textiles, furniture and beauty products such as wigs—but not whether the rich among them mimic their blue-state counterparts in seeking to project virtue via heirloom tomatoes and the like. Perhaps a sequel might explore the values of Sun Belt suburbanites, and how this other half of privileged Americans signal status through their spending.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"b9q8rgg1a2m5lg8ehrnrt2dflk22u1iu","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/b9q8rgg1a2m5lg8ehrnrt2dflk22u1iu","tegID":"b9q8rgg1a2m5lg8ehrnrt2dflk22u1iu","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T14:49:50Z","dateModified":"2017-08-15T13:03:03Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/britain/2017/08/05/housing-is-a-growing-political-problem-for-the-conservatives","short":"http://econ.st/2jpXNS3","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725801","https://stage.economist.com/news/britain/21725801-cannier-tories-have-longer-argued-more-housing-view-becoming-mainstream-housing"]},"headline":"Housing is a growing political problem for the Conservatives","subheadline":"March of the YIMBYs","description":"Cannier Tories have longer argued for more housing; that view is becoming mainstream","print":{"headline":"March of the YIMBYs","subheadline":"Tories and housing","description":"Some Conservatives grasp the need for more homes","section":{"id":"/content/2ldk64u3gt7tku874lf6kfi40e2nvts6","tegID":"2ldk64u3gt7tku874lf6kfi40e2nvts6","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:18Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:18Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/britain/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/76","https://stage.economist.com/sections/britain"]},"headline":"Britain","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eAFTER losing its majority, its housing minister and a clutch of seats in the suburban south-east, the Conservative Party seems at last to have reached the limit of its NIMBYism. “The penny didn’t drop until now,” says Rob Wilson, a Tory MP who lost his seat in Reading, a commuter town 40 miles west of London. But the view that the Conservatives should urge the building of more houses is at last filtering throughout the party. The alternative, according to the \u003cem\u003eDaily Telegraph\u003c/em\u003e, the unofficial journal of NIMBYism, is “Marxist social engineering”.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA shift is long overdue. A much-trailed white paper on housing in February—when the party was riding high in the polls—was gutted of any radical proposals. Still, cannier parts of the party have long argued for more housing. And from a political perspective, the Tories’ unwillingness to boost the supply of homes for people to buy seems increasingly imprudent. Building such houses may breed Tories: the party boasted a huge lead among owner-occupiers and a slimmer one among voters with mortgages at the last election, according to Ipsos MORI, a pollster. By contrast, Labour had a 23-point advantage among private renters. As home-ownership falls, such a gap could become an existential problem for the Tory party.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eBetter-off young people, who might otherwise lean towards the Tories, are most aggrieved about housing, according to Torsten Bell from the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank. It is among this group that the gulf between the “vision of the home they expected to own and the reality of the home they find themselves renting is most acutely felt,” says Mr Bell.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe political pressure is most intense in the south-east, where prices have rocketed. Cheaper housing and better transport links may tempt Labour voters away from the capital’s heart where the party dominates, into more marginal constituencies such as Reading, reckons Mr Wilson. For now, they are piled up harmlessly in inner London. Six of the ten biggest majorities are in Labour-held seats in the capital, often in once dodgy but now desirable areas such as Hackney. But even a small diaspora of lefties could take a bite out of the blue doughnut of Conservative constituencies that make up London’s outer suburbs and nearby towns (see map). Hastings welcomed 800 exiles from the capital between 2015 and 2016, who presumably delighted in being able to buy a four-bedroom house for the price of a two-bedroom flat in some of the dingier parts of south London. Its Tory MP, Amber Rudd, hung on to her seat by 346 votes.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/08/articles/body/20170805_brm123_0.png\" width=\"1280\" height=\"714\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"g7psd9e9pveoh54rht6viamcehlp65d4\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eNonetheless, some Conservatives are still channelling St Augustine: Lord, give me housing—but not here. Building more homes may win over future Tory voters, but it risks upsetting the current batch. Sajid Javid, the minister responsible for housing, insists that councils must persist with such developments, however unpopular. He has indicated that he will not obstruct those that permit some building on the green belt—where construction is almost non-existent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBut today’s Tory housing policy amounts to tinkering when compared with those of previous Tory governments. Harold Macmillan was tasked with—and just about achieved—the job of building 300,000 houses a year from 1951. The Conservatives were in power for 13 more years. Current policies fall far short of that sort of ambition. One Labour wag jokes that: “The best hope for the Tories is for Labour to win and enact its policy of mass council house building, so that they have a big stock of council houses to sell off when they get back in.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCorrection (August 15th 2017):\u003c/strong\u003e A previous version of the map above indicated that the Tories lost the constituency of Eastbourne to Labour in June 2017. In fact they lost it to the Liberal Democrats. Sorry.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"qvl1h1sq3boc6aj7m7rkna19c2qh8lug","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/qvl1h1sq3boc6aj7m7rkna19c2qh8lug","tegID":"qvl1h1sq3boc6aj7m7rkna19c2qh8lug","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T08:18:24Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T11:44:20Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/leaders/2017/08/05/how-to-avoid-nuclear-war-with-north-korea","short":"http://econ.st/2jq9dVA","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725768","https://stage.economist.com/news/leaders/21725768-there-are-no-good-options-curb-kim-jong-un-blundering-war-would-be-worst-how"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","subheadline":"It could happen","description":"There are no good options to curb Kim Jong Un. 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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eIT IS odd that North Korea causes so much trouble. It is not exactly a superpower. Its economy is only a fiftieth as big as that of its democratic capitalist cousin, South Korea. Americans spend twice its total GDP on their pets. Yet Kim Jong Un’s backward little dictatorship has grabbed the attention of the whole world, and even of America’s president, with its nuclear brinkmanship. On July 28th it tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit Los Angeles. Before long, it will be able to mount nuclear warheads on such missiles, as it already can on missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan. In charge of this terrifying arsenal is a man who was brought up as a demigod and cares nothing for human life—witness the innocents beaten to death with hammers in his gigantic gulag. Last week his foreign ministry vowed that if the regime’s “supreme dignity” is threatened, it will “pre-emptively annihilate” the countries that threaten it, with all means “including the nuclear ones”. Only a fool could fail to be alarmed.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eWhat another Korean war might look like\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eYet the most serious danger is not that one side will suddenly try to devastate the other. It is that both sides will miscalculate, and that a spiral of escalation will lead to a catastrophe that no one wants. Our briefing this week lays out, step by step, one way that America and North Korea might blunder into a nuclear war (see \u003ca href=\"http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21725763-everyone-would-lose-how-nuclear-war-korea-could-start-and-how-it-might-end\"\u003earticle\u003c/a\u003e). It also lists some of the likely consequences. These include: for North Korea, the destruction of its regime and the death of hundreds of thousands of people. For South Korea, the destruction of Seoul, a city of 10m within easy range of 1,000 of the North’s conventional artillery pieces. For America, the possibility of a nuclear attack on one of its garrisons in East Asia, or even on an American city. And don’t forget the danger of an armed confrontation between America and China, the North’s neighbour and grudging ally. It seems distasteful to mention the economic effects of another Korean war, but they would of course be awful, too.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003ePresident Donald Trump has vowed to stop North Korea from perfecting a nuclear warhead that could threaten the American mainland, tweeting that “it won’t happen!” Some pundits suggest shooting down future test missiles on the launchpad or, improbably, in the air. Others suggest using force to overthrow the regime or pre-emptive strikes to destroy Mr Kim’s nuclear arsenal before he has a chance to use it.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eYet it is just this sort of military action that risks a ruinous escalation. Mr Kim’s bombs and missile-launchers are scattered and well hidden. America’s armed forces, for all their might, cannot reliably neutralise the North Korean nuclear threat before Mr Kim has a chance to retaliate. The task would be difficult even if the Pentagon had good intelligence about North Korea; it does not. The only justification for a pre-emptive strike would be to prevent an imminent nuclear attack on America or one of its allies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eCan Mr Kim be cajoled or bribed into giving up his nuclear ambitions? It is worth trying, but has little chance of success. In 1994 President Bill Clinton secured a deal whereby Kim Jong Il (the current despot’s father) agreed to stop producing the raw material for nuclear bombs in return for a huge injection of aid. Kim took the money and technical help, but immediately started cheating. Another deal in 2005 failed, for the same reason. The younger Kim, like his father, sees nuclear weapons as the only way to guarantee the survival of his regime. It is hard to imagine circumstances in which he would voluntarily give up what he calls his “treasured sword of justice”.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIf military action is reckless and diplomacy insufficient, the only remaining option is to deter and contain Mr Kim. Mr Trump should make clear—in a scripted speech, not a tweet or via his secretary of state—that America is not about to start a war, nuclear or conventional. However, he should reaffirm that a nuclear attack by North Korea on America or one of its allies will immediately be matched. Mr Kim cares about his own skin. He enjoys the life of a dissolute deity, living in a palace and with the power to kill or bed any of his subjects. If he were to unleash a nuclear weapon, he would lose his luxuries and his life. So would his cronies. That means they can be deterred.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo contain Mr Kim, America and its allies should apply pressure that cannot be misconstrued as a declaration of war. They should ramp up economic sanctions not only against the North Korean regime but also against the Chinese companies that trade with it or handle its money. America should formally extend its nuclear guarantee to South Korea and Japan, and boost the missile defences that protect both countries. This would help ensure that they do not build nuclear weapons of their own. America should convince the South Koreans, who will suffer greatly if war breaks out, that it will not act without consulting them. China is fed up with the Kim regime, but fears that if it were to collapse, a reunified Korea would mean American troops on China’s border. Mr Trump’s team should guarantee that this will not happen, and try to persuade China that in the long run it is better off with a united, prosperous neighbour than a poor, violent and unpredictable one.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEveryone stay calm\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAll the options for dealing with the North are bad. Although America should not recognise it as a legitimate nuclear power, it must base its policy on the reality that it is already an illegitimate one. Mr Kim may gamble that his nukes give him the freedom to behave more provocatively, perhaps sponsoring terrorism in the South. He may also sell weapons to other cruel regimes or terrorist groups. The world must do what it can to thwart such plots, though some will doubtless succeed.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIt is worth recalling that America has been here before. When Stalin and Mao were building their first atom bombs, some in the West urged pre-emptive strikes to stop them. Happily, cooler heads prevailed. Since then, the logic of deterrence has ensured that these terrible weapons have never been used. Some day, perhaps by coup or popular uprising, North Koreans will be rid of their repulsive ruler, and the peninsula will reunite as a democracy, like Germany. Until then, the world must keep calm and contain Mr Kim.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"firbvv2p7encvsv3en9hucmjrkdolnob","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/firbvv2p7encvsv3en9hucmjrkdolnob","tegID":"firbvv2p7encvsv3en9hucmjrkdolnob","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T08:33:28Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T10:43:11Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/2017/08/05/trade-exchange-rates-budget-balances-and-interest-rates","short":"http://econ.st/2jpXKpl","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725774","https://stage.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21725774-trade-exchange-rates-budget-balances-and-interest-rates"]},"headline":"Trade, exchange rates, budget balances and interest rates","description":"","print":{"headline":"Trade, exchange rates, budget balances and interest rates","section":{"id":"/content/5tid6aob4kglh030jftj69gb3210l68g","tegID":"5tid6aob4kglh030jftj69gb3210l68g","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:20Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:20Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/96","https://stage.economist.com/sections/economic-financial-indicators"]},"headline":"Economic and financial indicators","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe situation in Qatar\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to the UN claimed that the hostile action taken by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt against Qatar is not a blockade, because “there is no military aspect to the diplomatic measures that have been taken” (\u003ca href=\"http://www.economist.com/news/letters/21724979-italy-qatar-india-drones-georgia-ants-britain-letters-editor\"\u003eLetters\u003c/a\u003e, July 15th).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eQatar’s only land border has been closed and air and sea traffic has been diverted, cutting off vital routes for imports. Fresh food, water supplies and medicine must now be airlifted into Qatar or delivered by boat. Parents have been forcibly separated from their young children and husbands from their wives. Family members have been prevented from visiting sick or elderly parents. To the people of Qatar, this is a blockade.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe citizens of the blockading countries are suffering as well. Hundreds have been forced to choose between abandoning their jobs and families or facing fines and even prison for disobeying the orders. Foreign patients being treated in Qatar have had their medical care disrupted.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAs Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, told an audience in London recently, “When you have a mother holding her seven-year-old child, and they are pulling her son away from her and not allowing her to travel with him, this is a blockade. It is inhuman. It is illegal. I’m sorry, but no one can call it a ‘boycott’.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAMBASSADOR ALYA BIN SAIF AL THANI\u003cbr/\u003ePermanent Representative of Qatar to the UN\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eNew York\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAround the world in 80 days\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eI’m sure readers were amused by the clever headline, “It’s not the heat; it’s the cupidity”, for the \u003ca href=\"http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21725009-rich-pollute-poor-suffer-climate-change-and-inequality\"\u003eFree exchange\u003c/a\u003e column on climate change (July 15th). It’s a great line. S.J. Perelman, an American humorist and screenwriter, coined the phrase in his delightful travel chronicle, “Westward Ha!”, in the late 1940s. Perelman and Al Hirschfeld, a cartoonist for \u003cem\u003eNew Yorker\u003c/em\u003e magazine, were commissioned to undertake a round-the-world trip mostly by slow steamer, presumably with an eye to replicating the success of Mark Twain’s “A Tramp Abroad” more than 60 years earlier. The serialised illustrated essays were compiled and published in book form in 1947.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eJIM RHODES\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eNorfolk, Virginia\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eYou say potato…\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIs \u003ca href=\"http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21725274-america-influencing-all-kinds-english-not-just-british-kind-diversity\"\u003eJohnson\u003c/a\u003e(July 22nd) being deliberately provocative in suggesting that scone is pronounced by Britons to rhyme with “gone”, whereas Americans pronounce it as rhyming with “cone”? Britain is just as divided on this topic as it is on Brexit (or on whether the jam or cream is spread first).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIAN SALUSBURY\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eOxford\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/08/articles/body/20170715_wfp013.jpg\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"mbtovqpkg8idd2d9gioh7f8dnf5ml8ds\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe future is bright\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e* “\u003ca href=\"http://www.economist.com/news/world-if/21724908-huge-potential-impact-rich-countries-prolonged-loss-electricity-disaster\"\u003eA flash in the sky\u003c/a\u003e” (July 15th) contained errors relating to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC is not the utilities’ “industry group”. It is an independent, not-for-profit international regulatory authority. Our mission is to assure the reliability and security of the bulk power system in North America. It did not take “a decade” for a vegetation-management standard to be developed. \u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eWhile it is true that electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is a national-security matter, NERC does not believe that EMP is solely the government’s responsibility, but rather sees the government leading national security in co-ordination with the public and private sectors. Working with the Department of Energy, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is undertaking a major three-year initiative to inform steps industry can take to protect against EMP. \u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eAlthough EPRI’s work continues, NERC’s previous studies on geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) and EPRI’s on EMP showed large numbers of transformers will not be damaged as a result of GMD and EMP, but a smaller set could be impacted based on the transformer’s relative health. NERC’s study found voltage collapse, as experienced in Hydro Québec in 1989, would be the result. Though this is serious, the system restoration activities would begin quickly, with swift restoration expected. Industry also has spare transformer sharing arrangements to provide quick replacement of critical equipment. \u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eMARK LAUBY\u003cbr/\u003eSenior vice-president and chief reliability officer\u003cbr/\u003eNorth American Electric Reliability Corporation\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eAtlanta\u003c/em\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eKeeping the generals happy\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRiding up and down the Champs-Elysées with Donald Trump and promising to all and sundry that France will maintain its operations abroad is one thing (“\u003ca href=\"https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21725329-conflict-over-military-spending-challenges-young-presidents-take-charge-image-frances-top\"\u003eStumbling into a fight\u003c/a\u003e”, July 22nd). Providing the armed forces with the means to achieve that is another. Two groups of people risk being alienated by Emmanuel Macron’s latest moves: the armed forces and the civil servants.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe president’s desire to re-establish the \u003cem\u003ejournée de carence\u003c/em\u003e, when civil servants have to sacrifice pay for their first day of sick leave, suggests a certain disdain. Treating the armed forces and the civil service in this way risks creating a powerful enemy coalition. There are dangerous signs of Napoleonic ambitions, without the thought needed to carry them through. Having assembled a parliamentary majority of largely inexperienced legislators, the president seems to be tempted by the idea of bypassing parliament and governing by decree.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA last detail. Mr Macron’s official portrait, which will be on display in French town halls, happens to be bigger than its predecessors, causing some mayors to protest against the cost of framing it. \u003cem\u003eLa folie des grandeurs\u003c/em\u003e?\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eALAN KIRMAN\u003cbr/\u003eDirector of studies\u003cbr/\u003eSchool for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS)\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eParis\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eElection rigging\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e* Your article (“\u003ca href=\"https://www.economist.com/news/international/21725286-it-still-hard-dislodge-incumbent-who-determined-cheat-new-methods-and\"\u003eHow to unrig an election\u003c/a\u003e”, July 22nd) on democratic elections in Africa states that “Not until 1991, in Benin and Zambia, did the region see peaceful ejections of incumbent rulers at the ballot box (the long-democratic island of Mauritius excepted).” That is not entirely correct.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eIn 1967 Somalia became the first place in the continent in which the head of state was defeated in an election, followed by a peaceful transfer of power. Somalia may have been brought to its knees by decades of dictatorship, civil war, clan militias, etc. It is easy to forget that its early years were different.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eSomalia was formed through the union of newly independent territories British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland in 1960. Aden Abdullah Osman Daar became the first president. In the 1967 presidential elections Daar was defeated by Abdirashid Ali Shermarke, his former prime minister, albeit by a secret ballot limited to members of parliament. Daar graciously accepted the loss, thus making history as the first leader in Africa to hand over power peacefully to a successor.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eSomalia’s democratic trailblazing in Africa came to a halt in 1969, when General Mohammed Siad Barré seized power in a coup.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePETER STEIN\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eStockholm\u003c/em\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e* Your article was extremely welcome in drawing attention to this transformational demonstration of the value of soft power. I have two points of disagreement. First election observation is not expensive. In 2004 in Indonesia the EU Election Observation Mission (EUEOM) oversaw the first peaceful transition of power in the world’s most populous Muslim country. In 2006/7 the EUEOM in Aceh observed the final step in a peace process that ended a 30-year civil war. The costs were respectfully less than five and two hours spending in the Iraq war.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eSecond, celebrity observers are far more trouble than they are worth. In 2004 the EU deployed a total of over 1,300 staff in the field with some in place for more than six months. A “celebrity”, with a team of less than two dozen arriving a week ahead of polling day to cover the 400,000 polling stations, promptly declared the poll a triumph of democracy three hours after the polls closed and hopped on a jet off to his next gig leaving the serious missions to pick up the pieces. I’d check John Kerry’s diary before I got excited.\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eGLYN FORD\u003cbr/\u003eEU chief election observer in Indonesia (2004) and Aceh (2006/7)\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eOldham\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eThe life saver\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/08/articles/body/20170805_ltp002_0.jpg\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"6vrq64jo2ubgs6tktgqqfqnagbkjncb1\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21724850-it-striking-how-often-self-made-americans-have-stories-tell-about-boring-summer\"\u003eLexington\u003c/a\u003epraised the young Ronald Reagan’s initiative in getting a summer job as a lifeguard at a municipal beach (July 8th). The young jobseeker had taken a life-saving course at the YMCA. He gained employment because the local authority insisted that the beach concessionaires improve safety standards after a spate of drownings. This was a case of government showing it could be the solution rather than just the problem (something the 40th president had forgotten by the time he gave his inaugural address in 1981).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn his advanced years Reagan proved the durability of skills learned in younger days. Aged 58 as the governor of California, he dived fully clothed to rescue a seven-year old African-American girl who had got into difficulties in the pool at his house in Sacramento, where a party for staff families was being held. “I guess it’s just an old instinct that remains,” he told the press when the story got out.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIWAN MORGAN\u003cbr/\u003eProfessor of US studies\u003cbr/\u003eUniversity College London\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGlad to be grey\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eYou asked what to call someone who is over 65 but not yet elderly (“\u003ca href=\"https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21724814-get-most-out-longer-lives-new-age-category-needed-what-call-time-life\"\u003eOver 65 shades of grey\u003c/a\u003e”, July 8th). Friends of ours invented the acronym Hopskis: Healthy Old People Spending Kids’ Inheritance, which sums it up pretty well.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eLARS HENRIKSSON\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eKristianstad, Sweden\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn my early days as a student in Bournemouth, we referred to the over 65s as Woopies and Jollies: Well Off Older People, and Jolly Old Ladies with Lots of Loot. Mind you, this was Bournemouth.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIVAR HAUFF\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eOslo\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBeing 79, I am in the midst of “longevity”. Yes, I am an Owl, Older, Working Less, still earning; but that also means Older, Wiser, still Learning.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFATHER EMMANUEL KAHN\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eWarrington, Cheshire\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/08/articles/body/20170708_srp083.jpg\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"20rj4rohb7qujqd2ca90sfmpcf2vhli4\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eI am now evidently able to refer to myself as a Geriactive, a Sunsetter, a Nightcapper, a Nyppie, or as one of the Owls. But after reading the reference to the Rolling Stones in your special report on longevity (July 8th), I think I’ll plump for “Jaggernaut”.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDAVID OGILVIE\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eNew York\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe English-speaking world thinks of “retirement”, as “withdrawal to a place of seclusion”, you say. But not all nations share such etymology. Germans have \u003cem\u003ePensionierung\u003c/em\u003e, Swedes \u003cem\u003epensionering\u003c/em\u003e, and Italians \u003cem\u003epensionamento\u003c/em\u003e, while Spaniards call it \u003cem\u003ejubilación\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTRISTAN JONES\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eChicago\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eCharles Dickens described the young elderly as being in their “green old age”, which is a wonderful definition.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMETA ROSENEIL\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eBuckhurst Hill, Essex\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHow about Indy, as in I’m Not Dead Yet?\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBRADFORD HAWKINS\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cem\u003eIrvine, California\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/em\u003e* Letters appear online only\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"t9gdeqq0jgnbitddesqgrqmc7r7rvtae","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/t9gdeqq0jgnbitddesqgrqmc7r7rvtae","tegID":"t9gdeqq0jgnbitddesqgrqmc7r7rvtae","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T10:33:24Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T10:39:30Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/the-americas/2017/08/05/brazils-congress-decides-not-to-put-michel-temer-on-trial","short":"http://econ.st/2jqHc0i","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725830","https://stage.economist.com/news/americas/21725830-more-corruption-charges-may-follow-brazils-congress-decides-not-put-michel-temer-trial"]},"headline":"Brazil’s congress decides not to put Michel Temer on trial","subheadline":"Round One to the president","description":"But more corruption charges may follow","print":{"headline":"Round One to the president","subheadline":"Brazil","description":"Michel Temer survives one corruption charge. More may follow","section":{"id":"/content/u9avqma9ca3p14gs9dp3hjvt3ebg1mr5","tegID":"u9avqma9ca3p14gs9dp3hjvt3ebg1mr5","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:12Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:12Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/the-americas/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/72","https://stage.economist.com/sections/americas"]},"headline":"The Americas","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eBRAZILIANS care little for Michel Temer, their scandal-plagued president. More than a month after the chief prosecutor, Rodrigo Janot, indicted him for accepting bribes, his approval rating stands at 5%. But Mr Temer retains support where it counts most: in congress. On August 2nd lawmakers in the lower house voted not to refer the case against him to the supreme court, which has the power to try him. A vote the other way would probably have led to Mr Temer’s suspension from office. After an uproarious debate, to which anti-Temer deputies brought suitcases stuffed with fake cash, the president won a comfortable victory: 263 deputies voted against referring the case to the supreme court while 227 voted in favour. Mr Temer needed just 172 votes to block the motion.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBut his troubles are not over. Mr Janot is expected to bring at least two more indictments against him, which may be put to a similar vote in the lower house. The more time Mr Temer spends defending himself, the less he will spend promoting his programme of economic reform, which is vital to stabilising the country’s public finances and to sustaining Brazil’s incipient recovery from its worst-ever recession.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe charge that Mr Temer fought off stemmed from evidence provided by Joesley Batista, a former chairman of JBS, a meatpacking firm, who secretly recorded a conversation with the president in March. This prompted a sting operation by police in which Rodrigo Loures, Mr Temer’s former aide, was filmed receiving 500,000 reais ($159,000) from Mr Batista’s envoy. Mr Janot suspects that the cash, plus 38m reais promised by Mr Batista, was destined for Mr Temer. In return, Mr Janot alleges, the president interceded with Brazil’s antitrust agency on Mr Batista’s behalf. Mr Temer denies all this.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe president is nothing if not a shrewd political operator. Armed with a spreadsheet listing legislators according to whether they were leaning for or against him, he spent weeks securing support in the lower house. The savvy septuagenarian met with more than 160 of the 513 deputies and freed up 4.2bn reais to spend in legislators’ home areas, according to Contas Abertas, a watchdog. Some legislators backed him enthusiastically. Wladimir Costa, a deputy from the Amazonian state of Pará, tattooed the president’s name on his shoulder. Mr Temer avoided trial by a bigger margin than many analysts had expected. “Those who tried to divide us got it wrong,” he crowed after the vote.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHe will now attempt to shift attention back to his economic agenda. Despite the charges against him, Mr Temer signed into law a controversial labour reform on July 13th. That has raised hopes that he can reform the budget-busting pension system. The real has held its value in the face of Mr Temer’s legal troubles, a sign of confidence.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBut confidence will be hard to maintain as the charges mount up and national elections approach in October 2018. Public opinion may begin to weigh more heavily with politicians facing re-election (Mr Temer is unlikely to run). One survey, taken before the lower house voted on the charges, found that 81% of Brazilians want Mr Temer to face trial. That will make it harder to enact the unpopular pension reform. Mr Temer will try to pass a slimmed-down version, predicts Christopher Garman of Eurasia Group, a risk-analysis firm. Much may depend on how meagre it is.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr Temer may well survive the congressional votes likely to be coming his way. Though angry, Brazilian voters are also weary. The president’s predecessor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached last year in part because of big protests against her. Few Brazilians demonstrate against Mr Temer. Apathy is an ally. “Muddling through until next year’s election remains the likely scenario,” argued Paulo Sotero of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Centre in Washington. The chief prosecutor will try to prove him wrong.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"nn4ahcbdl3ffshfouisc6p0vc0sudgjv","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/nn4ahcbdl3ffshfouisc6p0vc0sudgjv","tegID":"nn4ahcbdl3ffshfouisc6p0vc0sudgjv","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T14:49:50Z","dateModified":"2017-08-04T11:39:46Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/business/2017/08/05/europes-no-business-as-usual-summer","short":"http://econ.st/2AGVD4q","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725816","https://stage.economist.com/news/business/21725816-fellesferie-and-bouwvak-refer-particularly-european-business-habit-europes-no-business"]},"headline":"Europe’s no business as usual summer","subheadline":"Le long layoff","description":"“Fellesferie” and “bouwvak” refer to a particularly European business habit","print":{"headline":"Le long layoff","subheadline":"European productivity","description":"Europe’s no business as usual summer","section":{"id":"/content/79244csej12lltat5mgqtckdp41aagcj","tegID":"79244csej12lltat5mgqtckdp41aagcj","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:33Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:33Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/business/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/77","https://stage.economist.com/sections/business"]},"headline":"Business","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003e“DON’T you know about our summer?” asks a spokesperson of a Swedish multinational, himself presumably on holiday as kids chirp in the background. Almost everyone is gone until September, he says. At a German multinational, “the whole board is away for August,” admits a spokesperson. Faced with a slew of out-of-office messages across corporate Europe, there seems little choice for a business correspondent but to report on the phenomenon itself.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe practice of collectively taking July or August off dates from the Industrial Revolution, when it made sense to send off all assembly-line workers simultaneously. In England’s north entire factories used to descend on the same resorts. As any tourist who has found themselves in front of an ice-cream shop that is closed during a sizzling southern European summer will know, it has spread beyond factory jobs.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eUntil 2015 France had a rule that mandated some bakeries to stay open in August, so that Parisians—or rather tourists, because no chic Parisian wants to be seen in town during the summer—wouldn’t be deprived of baguettes. So empty is the city that month that the average speed of cars on a key ring road jumps from 38kph (24mph) to 52kph. Some of the best restaurants in Cyprus close in the tourist season. “Summer is near and Frankie will take a nap for a while,” says the site of Frankie’s Social, a trendy bar in Limassol.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMuch of Milan becomes deserted as well. In the artsy district of Brera, Rita Zubelli runs an ice-cream parlour with her parents and brother. It will close shop for two weeks shortly. Why not hire someone to serve tourists? Italian law has stricter rules for firms with non-family members—the staff toilet would have to be moved from the basement.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIt is not only the south that goes in for summer sloth. Production workers at Porsche, a German carmaker, are on a compulsory three-week break. In Norway \u003cem\u003efellesferie \u003c/em\u003erefers to a period of collective leave in July, when many firms shut and services including banks run on summer hours. In the Netherlands the \u003cem\u003ebouwvak \u003c/em\u003estill means that many construction workers must take three weeks off in July and August. The timing is doubly puzzling for the industry because demand is strong and summer is the best time to build in a wet country. Even some police stations are shut in August. Presumably crime takes a break, too.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThough Europe’s appetite for summer holidays is easy to mock, of the ten most productive countries in the world (judged by per-hour productivity) only one—America, in fifth place—is not in Europe. Still, in several countries including Germany and the Netherlands, workers and trade unions have begun to press for more flexible leave policies; not everyone wants to go on holiday at a set time when prices are highest.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFirms that trade globally have had to adapt to demand from those parts of the world—especially Asia—that do not slow over summer and that expect someone in Europe to answer the phone. But though the European summer may spread itself out a little more over the year, there is scant sign that Europeans will cut down on their beach and mountain time.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]},{"_index":"v1","_type":"canonical","_id":"v94sdiscfumkculvv8lu59kcdmi6ac2l","_score":null,"_source":{"id":"/content/v94sdiscfumkculvv8lu59kcdmi6ac2l","tegID":"v94sdiscfumkculvv8lu59kcdmi6ac2l","tegType":"article","type":["Article","NewsArticle","AnalysisNewsArticle"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-03T09:48:27Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T13:03:24Z","datePublished":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/europe/2017/08/05/americas-new-economic-sanctions-may-hurt-russias-recovery","short":"http://econ.st/2jqJKvw","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/node/21725806","https://stage.economist.com/news/europe/21725806-whether-they-will-change-vladimir-putins-behaviour-another-matter-americas-new-economic"]},"headline":"America’s new economic sanctions may hurt Russia’s recovery","subheadline":"The punishment continues","description":"But whether they will change Vladimir Putin’s behaviour is another matter","print":{"headline":"The punishment continues","subheadline":"Sanctions on Russia","description":"Do economic restrictions change Russian behaviour?","section":{"id":"/content/75ks360ifh4d6k3c3n17b7s7uqcvb61a","tegID":"75ks360ifh4d6k3c3n17b7s7uqcvb61a","tegType":"taxonomy","type":["Chapter"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2018-02-12T15:18:21Z","dateModified":"2018-02-12T15:18:21Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"https://stage.economist.com/europe/","alias":["https://stage.economist.com/taxonomy/term/75","https://stage.economist.com/sections/europe"]},"headline":"Europe","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"workflow":"pub"}},"publication":[{"id":"/content/6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegID":"6iqeb34sqe6q18279n8nu501nj6iba55","tegType":"issue","type":["PublicationIssue"],"version":"v1","regionsAllowed":[],"isAccessibleForFree":false,"dateCreated":"2017-08-05T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2017-08-03T15:16:21Z","datePublished":"2017-08-03T14:49:43Z","inLanguage":"en","url":{"canonical":"http://stage.economist.com/printedition/2017-08-05","short":"http://econ.st/2AGV7n0","alias":["http://stage.economist.com/node/21725750"]},"headline":"How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea","description":"","publisher":{"ref":"/s3/wikidata/entity/Q474153-v1.esi"},"channel":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"articleSection":{"public":[]},"about":{"public":[]},"ad":{"zoneCode":"pf12","siteCode":"FMSQ"},"image":{"cover":[{"ref":"/s3/content/r37i2j866lp7juso806cm5r4q6mkpgue/pub/core-v1.esi"}]},"sourceOrganization":{"ref":"/s3/content/j53t6hsedat4l7rkbb1le98u73262sh5/pub/core-v1.esi"},"copyrightYear":2017,"workflow":"pub"}],"publisher":{ | |
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| ,"mimeType":"text/html","text":"\u003cp\u003eIN LATE June Daimler, a German carmaker, broke ground on a new Mercedes-Benz plant north-west of Moscow. “We are confident in the long-term potential of Russia,” Markus Schäfer, a board member, said at the ceremony. The €250m ($296m) factory marked the first investment by a Western carmaker since America and the European Union slapped sanctions on Russia as punishment for its aggression in Ukraine three years ago.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAfter more than two years of recession, Russia is projected to return to growth this year. Until recently, the chill that sanctions put on the investment climate seemed to be thawing. “People had begun to forget about them,” says Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory, a Moscow-based consultancy. But in late July America’s Congress voted to expand the sanctions. Vladimir Putin responded by demanding that America reduce its diplomatic staff in Russia by some 750 people. (Most of those affected are likely to be Russian employees.) He also shut down the American diplomatic dacha in Moscow’s Serebryany Bor forest—even the barbecues had to go.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure class=\"inline_ad\" role=\"presentation\" itemtype=\"https://schema.org/WPAdBlock\"\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe new offensive has revived arguments over whether sanctions work. Proponents say they helped stall Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. Naysayers reckon they just let politicians look tough. The truth is more complicated. So far they have not changed Mr Putin’s behaviour abroad, and have helped him consolidate power at home. Yet in the long term they may undermine the stability of his rule.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe first sanctions came in response to the takeover of Crimea in March 2014, and targeted individuals with travel bans and asset freezes. In July that year, as Russian-backed separatists rampaged in eastern Ukraine, “sectoral sanctions” followed, restricting credit to a host of Russian energy and defence firms and banks. The measures were calibrated to avoid rocking global markets and to win support from the European Union, which passed sanctions of its own. “The purpose was never to bring down the Russian economy,” says a former American official.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAfter the oil price collapsed in late 2014, Russia’s economy fell into crisis. Sanctions made things worse. A credit crunch led the government to dip into reserves to bail out banks and firms. Uncertainty made foreigners cautious about dealing with anyone in Russia, not just those on the lists. These “silent sanctions” chilled the business climate, says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, Russia’s largest private bank. Foreign direct investment fell from $69bn in 2013 to just $6.8bn in 2015.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn-stage.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20170805_EUC395.png\" width=\"608\" height=\"625\" alt=\"\" data-teg-id=\"n7gmeqp8asrocdl57n6h09noetf38m9o\"/\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp\u003eAmerican officials seized upon this as proof that sanctions work. “Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters,” President Barack Obama declared in January 2015. At the time Western leaders fretted that Russia might push deeper into Ukraine. Supporters of the sanctions argue that they helped prevent this, underpinning the signing of the Minsk peace agreements in February 2015.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNonetheless, the sanctions have not altered Mr Putin’s strategy. Russia continues to support the separatist republics in Ukraine, and Crimea’s annexation has become a fait accompli. “The honest truth is that [sanctions] have yet to change their policies,” says Evelyn Farkas, the former Russia point person at the Pentagon. Russia went on to intervene in Syria and, in 2016, meddle in America’s elections.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAt home, the government used the sanctions to blame the economic downturn on conniving foreigners. By cutting Mr Putin’s cronies off from global markets, sanctions “inadvertently made them more dependent on the Kremlin”, argues Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank. In 2015, according to the Russian version of \u003cem\u003eForbes\u003c/em\u003e, Arkady Rotenberg, Mr Putin’s judo buddy and a sanctioned construction magnate, received 555bn roubles’ worth of government orders. Sanctions became an object of public ridicule. A patriotic T-shirt captured the mood: a drawing of a nuclear missile captioned “The Topol is not afraid of sanctions.”\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWith time, business came to fear them less, too. In 2014 United States Treasury officials warned American companies off attending the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s equivalent of Davos. By 2016 many CEOs had returned. Russia successfully placed a $1.25bn sovereign Eurobond in September 2016, with more than half bought by Americans. The United Nations reckons that 280 greenfield investment projects in Russia in 2016, below the ten-year peak of 596 announced in 2008, but an improvement over the nadir of 194 in 2014. IKEA, Leroy Merlin, Pfizer and Mars Inc all have plans for stores or factories.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe new sanctions may give foreign investors pause. That worries the Kremlin. As Mr Putin looks towards his fourth term (he is expected to win next year’s election), Russians are more concerned with their wallets than with Crimea. Growth this year is projected to be 2% or less. For the elite, the prospect of long-term stagnation and endless standoff with the West raises questions about the country’s direction. “The sense of an historic dead-end evokes panic,” writes Vladimir Frolov, a Russian analyst. Sanctions will not cause Mr Putin to reverse course, but they do make it harder for him to drive his way out.\u003c/p\u003e"},"sort":[1501891200000]}]}} | |
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