Created
March 21, 2014 07:32
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| sales <- # (this is where we need data, but it's easy to find) | |
| cumsales <- cumsum(sales) | |
| time <- seq_along(sales) | |
| tdelt <- (1:100)/length(time) | |
| Bass <- sales ~ m * (((p+q)^2/p)*exp(-(p+q)*time))/(1+(q/p)*exp(-(p+q)*time))^2) | |
| Bass.nls <- nls(formula = Bass, start=c(p=0.03,q=0.04,m=max(S))) | |
| Bcoef <- coef(Bass.nls) | |
| m <- Bcoef[1] | |
| p <- Bcoef[2] | |
| q <- Bcoef[3] | |
| ngete <- exp(-(p+q) * tdelt) | |
| Bpdf <- m*((p+q)^2/p)*ngete/(1+(q/p)*ngete)^2 | |
| plot(tdelt, Bpdf, xlab = "Year from base",ylab = "Sales per year", type='l') | |
| points(time, sales) | |
| Bcdf <- m*(1-ngete)/(1+(q/p)*ngete) | |
| plot(tdelt, Bcdf, xlab = "Year from base",ylab = "Cumulative sales", type='l') | |
| points(t79, cusales) |
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