A random collection of facts and some sketchy math re: zika

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    "outbreak_duration = 6\n",
    "microcephalic_births_brazil = 3500                      #microcephalic births during outbreak period\n",
    "births_during_outbreak = (3.5e6/12)*outbreak_duration   #all births during outbreak period\n",
    "attack_rate = .73                                       #attack rate from Yap Island \n",
    "                                                         #(likely overestimate due to xreactivity)"
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       "0.003"
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   "source": [
    "risk = microcephalic_births_brazil / (births_during_outbreak * attack_rate)\n",
    "round(risk, 3)"
   ]
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   "source": [
    "def six_month_incidence(annual_births):\n",
    "    births_in_study_period = annual_births/outbreak_duration\n",
    "    births_to_infected_mothers = births_in_study_period * attack_rate\n",
    "    \n",
    "    expected_cases = births_to_infected_mothers * risk\n",
    "    \n",
    "    return int(round(expected_cases, 0))"
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   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
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   "source": [
    "hawaii = six_month_incidence(18987)"
   ]
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       "6"
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    "hawaii"
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   "execution_count": 39,
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   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "puerto_rico = six_month_incidence(36486)"
   ]
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   "source": [
    "puerto_rico"
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   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "http://www.who.int/csr/don/8-january-2016-brazil-microcephaly/en/\n",
    "http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V19N09/art20720.pdf\n",
    "http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_01.pdf"
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