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agent: determine big money whale accumulation by looking at etf volume inflows and dark pool index vpoc
To gauge whale accumulation—that is, large-scale investors quietly building Bitcoin positions—you’re spot on to look at ETF inflows and dark pool activity, especially the Volume Point of Control (VPOC).
In the week leading up to June 18, 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw eight straight days of net inflows, totaling $388 million on June 18 alone. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge with $279 million, followed by Fidelity and Bitwise. This kind of sustained institutional buying is a classic signal of whale interest—especially when paired with price stability around the $104K–$105K range.
While dark pool data is less transparent, platforms like WhaleStream and Tradytics show that dark pool trades surged in late June, particularly in large-cap ETFs and crypto-linked equities. The VPOC, which marks the price level with the highest traded volume, helps identify where whales are most active. If Bitcoin’s VPOC aligns with ETF inflow levels or price consolidation zones, it suggests whales are accumulating at those levels.
- Rising ETF inflows + high dark pool volume near VPOC = whales quietly loading up.
- Retail outflows and low on-chain activity further support the idea that big players are dominating the market right now.
Want to dig into specific VPOC levels or track wallet cohorts next? I can help you chart it out.
onchain activity sopr sth indicates distribution or accumulation
Great question—STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio for Short-Term Holders) is a powerful on-chain metric that helps distinguish between accumulation and distribution phases in Bitcoin markets.
- STH-SOPR > 1: Short-term holders are selling at a profit. If this persists, it often signals distribution, especially when paired with declining price momentum.
- STH-SOPR < 1: They're selling at a loss. This typically reflects capitulation or accumulation, as weaker hands exit and stronger hands step in.
According to Glassnode, STH-SOPR has recently dipped well below 1, indicating that many recent buyers are realizing losses. This aligns with a broader distribution phase that began in January 2025, following Bitcoin’s drop from $108K to $93K. The Accumulation Trend Score also remains near 0.1, reinforcing the idea that sell-side pressure is dominating.
So in short: low STH-SOPR = fear and loss realization, often a precursor to accumulation by long-term holders or whales.
Want to pair this with wallet cohort behavior or cost-basis heatmaps next?
what were conditions of whale distribution or accumulation from november 2024 to december 2024
Between November and December 2024, whale behavior in the crypto market showed a mix of accumulation and distribution, depending on the asset and broader market sentiment.
- XRP whales were notably active. Over 590 million XRP (worth approximately $1.29 billion) was accumulated by large holders during this period, despite the price consolidating between $2.20 and $2.62.
- Wallets holding 10,000+ XRP grew from 281,000 to 300,000, signaling a steady rise in whale interest.
- Other altcoins like Maker (MKR) and Fantom (FTM) also saw increased whale inflows. MKR had over $7 million in whale purchases, while FTM whales added 6 million tokens in anticipation of the Sonic upgrade.
- For some assets like Chainlink (LINK), whales began profit-taking in December. Wallets holding 10K–1M LINK started selling between $22–$29, followed by larger whales (>1M LINK) in January 2025. This marked a clear distribution phase near local price peaks.
The Whale Accumulation Heat Map from ChainExposed showed warm colors (accumulation) in early November, transitioning to cooler tones (distribution) by late December—especially for assets that had rallied earlier in the year.
So, in summary: November 2024 leaned bullish with accumulation, while December showed mixed behavior, with some whales rotating out of positions after strong rallies. Want to zoom in on a specific token or wallet cohort?
what were conditions of whale distribution or accumulation from november 2024 to december 2024 to january 2025 to march 2025
From November 2024 through March 2025, whale behavior in the crypto market followed a fascinating arc—from aggressive accumulation to selective distribution, and then back to record-breaking accumulation.
- Whales accumulated heavily across assets like XRP, MKR, and FTM.
- Wallets holding 10,000+ XRP grew significantly, and the Whale Accumulation Heat Map showed warm tones, signaling strong buying pressure.
- Some whales began rotating out of positions, especially in Chainlink (LINK), where profit-taking occurred near local highs.
- Yet, XRP whales added 1 billion tokens in just 48 hours around December 29–30, showing that not all whales were exiting.
- Whales resumed accumulation, focusing on undervalued assets:
- Cardano (ADA) whales added 20 million ADA.
- XRP whales increased holdings by another 380 million tokens.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) saw large whale buys after a 15% dip.
- Bitcoin whales accumulated 129,000 BTC (≈$11.2 billion) starting March 11—the highest accumulation rate since August 2024.
- Addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC surged to their highest since December 2024.
- Another report noted whales added 62,000 BTC in March, reversing a year-long downtrend.
- This accumulation coincided with strong ETF inflows, suggesting institutional confidence despite market volatility.
In short: whales loaded up in November, trimmed in December, re-entered in January, and doubled down in March. Want to explore how this behavior impacted Bitcoin’s volatility or ETF flows during that time?