davidmanheim

#We define some function f(x,y) which is the baseline truth. Neither agents nor the regulator have access to this.

Build_True_fx = function(degrees){
  #we need a polynomial function where the coefficients are random.
  
  num_terms = ((degrees+2)^2-degrees-2) / 2 #I need this many; sum(1..[degrees+1]). See below.
  # deg=0: 1 - c, deg=1: 3 - x, y  + terms from deg=0, etc. 
  coeffs = rnorm(num_terms)
  print(coeffs)

davidmanheim

make/models:13: target 'examples\bernoulli\bernoulli' doesn't match the target pattern

--- Linking C++ model ---
g++ -Wall -I . -isystem stan/lib/stan_math/lib/eigen_3.3.3 -isystem stan/lib/stan_math/lib/boost_1.66.0 -isystem stan/lib/stan_math/lib/sundials_3.1.0/include -std=c++1y -DBOOST_RESULT_OF_USE_TR1 -DBOOST_NO_DECLTYPE -DBOOST_DISABLE_ASSERTS -DBOOST_PHOENIX_NO_VARIADIC_EXPRESSION -Wno-unused-function -Wno-uninitialized -I src -isystem stan/src -isystem stan/lib/stan_math/ -DFUSION_MAX_VECTOR_SIZE=12 -Wno-unused-local-typedefs -DEIGEN_NO_DEBUG -m64 -Wno-unused-but-set-variable -DNO_FPRINTF_OUTPUT -pipe   src/cmdstan/main.cpp  -O3 -o examples\bernoulli\bernoulli -include  stan/lib/stan_math/lib/sundials_3.1.0/lib/libsundials_nvecserial.a stan/lib/stan_math/lib/sundials_3.1.0/lib/libsundials_cvodes.a stan/lib/stan_math/lib/sundials_3.1.0/lib/libsundials_idas.a 
In file included from <command-line>:0:0:
./stan/lib/stan_math/lib/sundials_3.1.0/lib/libsundials_nvecserial.a:2:59: error: stray '`' in progra

davidmanheim

• Correlation is not causation (???)
• No causation without manipulation. (Holland)
• All models are wrong, some are useful. (Box)
• Statistics is the science of uncertainty. (arguably Tukey)
• Statistics is the science of learning from experience, especially experience that arrives a little bit at a time. (Efron)
• Empirically observed covariation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for causality. (Tufte)
• Correlation is not causation but it sure is a hint. (Tufte)
• In a causal model, correlation implies causation (somewhere). (Paul F Christiano)
• Reality is the ultimate judge of any theory (???)
• The Folk Theorem of Statistical Computing: When you have computational problems, often there’s a problem with your model. (Gelman)