Check efficiency of a bogosort

MainClass.java

package me.dean;

import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Collections;
import java.util.List;

public class MainClass {
    private static List<Byte> deck = new ArrayList<>();

    public static void main(String[] args) {
        for (byte i = 0; i < 14; i++) deck.add(i);
        long start = System.currentTimeMillis();

        int tries = 0;

        do {
            Collections.shuffle(deck);
            tries++;
        } while (deckShuffled());

        System.out.println("Done shuffling!");
        System.out.println("Time: " + (System.currentTimeMillis() - start) + " ms");
        System.out.println("Tries: " + tries);
        System.out.println("Should take " + factorial(deck.size()) + " tries");
    }

    private static boolean deckShuffled() {
        byte first = -1;

        for (byte next : deck) {
            if(first == -1) {
                first = next;
                continue;
            }

            if(first > next) return true;

            first = next;
        }

        return false;
    }

    private static long factorial(long value) {
        for(long factor = value-1; factor > 1; factor--) {
            value *= factor;
        }

        return value;
    }
}