Crisis Analysis Pipeline: From GDELT Events to Actionable Insights

Integrated Architecture

flowchart TD
    A[GDELT Raw Data] --> B[Event Extraction]
    B --> C{Temporal Graph Builder}
    C --> D[Neo4j Knowledge Graph]
    D --> E[Replay Mode Analysis]
    D --> F[Counterfactual Testing]
    E --> G[Stakeholder-Specific Insights]
    F --> G
    
    style G fill:#e3f7e1,stroke:#4CAF50

Enhanced Graph Schema for Crisis Analysis

erDiagram
    CRISIS_EVENT ||--o{ STAKEHOLDER : impacts
    CRISIS_EVENT ||--o{ LOCATION : occurs_in
    CRISIS_EVENT ||--o{ DECISION_POINT : triggers
    STAKEHOLDER ||--o{ ACTION : takes
    ACTION ||--o{ OUTCOME : results_in
    
    CRISIS_EVENT {
        string EventID
        timestamp EventDate
        string EventType
        float GoldsteinScale
        string Actor1Type
        string Actor2Type
    }
    STAKEHOLDER {
        string Role
        string Organization
        string GeoFocus
    }
    DECISION_POINT {
        string DecisionID
        timestamp DecisionTime
        array Alternatives
    }

COVID-19 Air Cargo Implementation

Data Transformation Flow

flowchart LR
    A[GDELT CSV] --> B[Extract Key Fields]
    B --> C[Enrich with COVID Context]
    C --> D[Create Temporal Relationships]
    D --> E[Load into Crisis Graph]
    
    subgraph Key Fields
        B1[EventID]
        B2[SQLDate]
        B3[Actor1CountryCode]
        B4[EventGeo_CountryCode]
        B5[EventCode]
    end
    
    subgraph COVID Enrichment
        C1[Add PandemicPhase]
        C2[Tag MedicalShipments]
        C3[Calculate CargoImpactScore]
    end

Answering Stakeholder Competency Questions

Airline Route Planner Question
"Fastest alternative routes minimizing delays?"

// Temporal-aware routing query
MATCH (crisis:CRISIS_EVENT {pandemicPhase: "March2020Lockdown"})
WITH crisis
MATCH (origin:Country {code: "CN"})-[r:AVAILABLE_ROUTE]->(hub:Country)
WHERE r.startDate <= crisis.EventDate <= r.endDate
RETURN origin.code, hub.code, r.transitTime
ORDER BY r.transitTime ASC

Customs Authority Question
"Where to allocate staff to prevent bottlenecks?*

flowchart TD
    A[GDELT Event] -->|Contains| B[CustomsDelayReport]
    B --> C[GeoLocate Delay]
    C --> D[Calculate Frequency]
    D --> E[Identify Top 3 Locations]
    E --> F[Trigger StaffReallocation]

Value Chain Visualization

stateDiagram-v2
    [*] --> GDELT_Ingestion
    GDELT_Ingestion --> CrisisGraph: Raw events
    CrisisGraph --> ReplayMode: Historical patterns
    ReplayMode --> WhatIfAnalysis: Test interventions
    WhatIfAnalysis --> StakeholderDashboards: Actionable insights
    
    state StakeholderDashboards {
        [*] --> AirlineOps
        AirlineOps --> FlightRerouting
        AirlineOps --> CrewAllocation
        
        [*] --> Customs
        Customs --> PriorityClearance
        Customs --> FraudDetection
    }

Implementation Alignment with Your COVID Analysis

Temporal Context
Added pandemic phase tagging to events:

# app.py enhancement
def add_covid_context(df):
    df['pandemicPhase'] = np.where(df['SQLDate'].between('2020-03-15', '2020-03-22'),
                                  'March2020Lockdown',
                                  'Pre/PostLockdown')

Cascading Impact Scoring
Modified relationship creation to track disruption propagation:

// Enhanced relationship with crisis properties
MATCH (e:Event)-[:OCCURS_IN]->(c:Country)
MERGE (e)-[r:IMPACTS {crisisType: 'AirCargo'}]->(c)
SET r.disruptionLevel = CASE 
  WHEN e.EventCode IN ['089', '095'] THEN 'Critical'
  ELSE 'Moderate' 
END

Multi-Stakeholder Views
Created virtual graph projections for different roles:

# Airline Operations View
airline_subgraph = graph.run("""
MATCH (e:Event)-[:INVOLVES]->(a:Actor {type: 'Airline'})
WITH gds.graph.project('airlineView', ['Event', 'Airport'], '*') AS g
RETURN g
""")

This documentation demonstrates how the GDELT pipeline directly supports your COVID-19 cargo disruption analysis through temporal graph patterns and role-specific querying. Would you like me to develop specific use case walkthroughs for any of the stakeholder perspectives you outlined?

donbr/gdelt-pipeline-tied-to-usecase.md