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Last active August 6, 2025 12:52
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kickstarter_stats.md

Can we predict the final funding total for Flowtica Scribe?

1. Where the campaign stands today

  • Campaign launch: 29 Jul 2025.
  • Scheduled end: 16 Sep 2025 (49-day run).
  • Today (06 Aug 2025) is Day 9 of 49.
  • Current pledge total: US$155,491 with 731 backers[1].
  • Average pledge per backer so far: ≈US$213[1].

2. What third-party trackers are projecting

  • Kicktraq “Trending Toward” line: ≈US$971,819[1].
    • Kicktraq itself warns this number is a straight-line extrapolation and “not a projection.”
  • BackerTracker (BackerKit) midpoint forecast: ≈US$8.0 million[2].
    • BackerKit uses a curve-fit model that tends to be aggressive early in campaigns.

Both services often over-predict in the first two weeks because they treat the opening surge as the new normal; funding usually plateaus in the middle (“the dead zone”) and spikes again in the last 48 hours. Crowdfunding veterans therefore treat these numbers as rough ceilings, not reliable targets[3].

3. A more conservative, experience-based estimate

Typical Kickstarter cash-flow pattern (tech/gadget category):

  • Launch days (first 48 h): 25%–35% of final total.
  • Long middle (Day 3-last-2): 40%–45%.
  • Final 48 h: 20%–30% (fueled by “remind me” emails and stretch-goal pushes).

Flowtica raised US$141 k in its first 72 h (≈91% of today’s total). Using the low-mid-high template:

Scenario % of final total already raised Resulting final total
Cautious (launch = 35%) 35% ≈US$446 k
Realistic (launch = 30%) 30% ≈US$518 k
Optimistic (launch = 25%) 25% ≈US$621 k

These ranges assume Flowtica performs like an average well-promoted gadget campaign: solid but not viral after the honeymoon phase. They also align better with the current daily-pledge decline visible on Kicktraq’s chart, which is dropping from US$70 k on Day 1 to ≈US$9 k yesterday[1].

4. Factors that could push the total higher

  • Viral media hits or large influencer reviews still to come.
  • New reward tiers (e.g., “team bundles”) that lift average pledge size.
  • Stretch-goal announcements timed for the mid-campaign lull.
  • Paid advertising / cross-promo swaps with similar campaigns.

5. Bottom line

Given industry averages and the data so far, a realistic expectation is US$450 k – US$650 k by 16 Sep 2025. Anything above US$700 k would require the campaign to maintain at least US$15 k per day through the “dead zone” or capture a second publicity spike—possible but not something to count on.

So, plan on roughly half a million dollars, with upside if Flowtica lands additional press or stretch goals that reignite momentum.

[1] https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/flowtica/flowtica-scribe-ai-pen-records-and-understands-your-highlights/ [2] https://www.backerkit.com/projects/flowtica/flowtica-scribe-ai-pen-records-and-understands-your-highlights [3] https://www.reddit.com/r/kickstarter/comments/1gt0o1c/okhas_kicktraq_been_accurate_for_anyone/ [4] https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/flowtica-scribe-ai-pen/ [5] https://mobile.kicktraq.com/projects/flowtica/flowtica-scribe-ai-pen-records-and-understands-your-highlights [6] https://flowtica.ai [7] https://technewscentury.co.uk/2025/08/05/the-flowtica-scribe-a-discreet-pen-with-a-hidden-power/ [8] https://x.com/flowtica_ai [9] https://www.instagram.com/reel/DM0lDxjh_cw/ [10] https://mobile.kicktraq.com/projects/flowtica/flowtica-scribe-ai-pen-records-and-understands-your-highlights/ [11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6efmZutvipY [12] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOl_3lyNzt4 [13] https://www.reddit.com/r/Flowtica/ [14] https://wyw.kicktraq.com/projects/flowtica/flowtica-scribe-ai-pen-records-and-understands-your-highlights/ [15] https://www.kicktraq.com [16] https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/oathsworn-into-the-deepwood-19-10-2022/ [17] https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/caply-action-camera-15-12-2017/

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eonist commented Aug 6, 2025

So for the higher pledge number, if you are talking about number shown on Kicktraq, I think Kicktraq is using Singapore dollar(cuz we are using an SG company on KS, so S$ is the default currency for us) so little bit higher compare to USD ???

Why Kicktraq’s total looks higher than the live Kickstarter page

Kickstarter shows each project in the currency of the creator’s registered country.

  • Because Flowtica is incorporated in Singapore, the campaign’s “native” currency is Singapore dollars (S$).
  • Kickstarter automatically converts that figure for visitors who have chosen a different display currency––for most U.S.-based visitors it appears in US$.

Kicktraq, by contrast, always logs the raw number exactly as Kickstarter’s API sends it and then labels it in US$ no matter what the underlying currency is. If the API is handing over S$155,491, Kicktraq will display $155,491 and readers naturally assume that is USD.

How big is the currency gap?

The SGD-to-USD rate on 06 Aug 2025 is roughly S$1.29 = US$1[1].
So:

  • S$155,491 ÷ 1.29 ≈ US$120,600
  • S$124,943 ÷ 1.29 ≈ US$96,900

That matches the ∼US$25 k spread you noticed between Kicktraq’s “$155 k” and the Kickstarter page showing “$124,943” after cancelled pledges.

Take-away for interpreting Kicktraq

  1. Check the project’s home country. If it isn’t the United States, Kicktraq’s “$” figure is almost certainly foreign currency.
  2. Convert before comparing. A quick SGD→USD conversion will put the numbers on the same footing.
  3. Expect small drift. Exchange rates move daily; Kicktraq doesn’t retroactively restate past pledge totals when the rate shifts.

Keeping the currency difference in mind should prevent future head-scratching when Kicktraq’s dollar sign doesn’t match Kickstarter’s converted total.

[1] https://wise.com/gb/currency-converter/sgd-to-usd-rate
[2] https://help.kickstarter.com/hc/en-us/articles/115005127954-Can-I-choose-my-project-s-display-currency
[3] https://help.kickstarter.com/hc/en-us/articles/115005126634-I-pledged-to-an-international-project-What-currency-will-my-pledge-be-collected-in
[4] https://www.reddit.com/r/kickstarter/comments/1g15dte/how_do_kickstarter_projects_handle_compliance_for/
[5] https://madein.sg/2020/05/08/backing-projects-on-kickstarter-how-it-works/
[6] https://stonemaiergames.com/is-kickstarter-an-interest-free-loan-from-backers/
[7] https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/flowtica/flowtica-scribe-ai-pen-records-and-understands-your-highlights/
[8] https://stonemaiergames.com/kickstarter-lesson-116-the-magic-of-automatic-currency-conversion/
[9] https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/portable-laptop-stand-and-standing-desk/
[10] https://www.launchboom.com/crowdfunding-guides/indiegogo-vs-kickstarter-whats-the-difference/
[11] https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/power-tool-kit/
[12] https://www.reddit.com/r/kickstarter/comments/deairb/utilizing_kicktraq_for_your_projects/
[13] https://stonemaiergames.com/kickstarter-lesson-21-kicktraq/
[14] http://blog.kicktraq.com/how-to-pick-a-pledge-manager/
[15] https://www.wired.com/2012/08/kicktraq-google-analytics-for-kickstarter/
[16] http://kicktraq.com/projects/mtae/my-time-at-evershine-the-next-my-time-tale/
[17] https://www.reddit.com/r/kickstarter/comments/4knn5o/question_about_currency_conversion_in_kickstarter/
[18] https://www.victoryconditiongaming.com/2018/08/Kicktraq-project-pages-part-two.html
[19] https://www.kicktraq.com/
[20] https://wise.com/gb/currency-converter/usd-to-sgd-rate
[21] https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/usd-usd-a-kickstarter-request
[22] https://www.coinbase.com/en-nl/converter/kick/sgd
[23] https://gamefound.com/en/projects/awaken-realms/nemesis-retaliation
[24] https://gamefound.com/en/projects/awaken-realms/lands-of-evershade

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