First-time paid subscribers only (n=2,099). Endpoint: subscription still active. Since July 2025.
Question: Which window best separates retainers from churners?
| Window | 0 inquiries → retention | ≥1 inquiry → retention | Lift (0 → ≥1) | Lift (0 → 2-3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 7d | 27.2% (n=1,629) | 38.2% (n=470) | +11.0 pts | +10.2 pts |
| First 14d | 25.8% (n=1,421) | 38.0% (n=678) | +12.2 pts | +13.5 pts |
| First 21d | 24.3% (n=1,282) | 37.9% (n=817) | +13.6 pts | +17.0 pts |
| First 28d | 22.1% (n=1,158) | 39.0% (n=941) | +16.9 pts | +16.4 pts |
Finding: The lift INCREASES with longer windows. 28d has the strongest separation (22.1% vs 39.0% = +16.9 pts). But 7d already captures most of the signal (+11.0 pts). The diminishing returns inflection is between 14d and 21d.
Recommendation: Use 14-day window as the standard metric. It captures 72% of the 28-day lift while being actionable within a billing cycle for monthly subs.
| Inquiries (total) | n | Retention | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 707 | 8.5% | The dead zone — 91.5% churn |
| 1 | 240 | 27.9% | The step function — 3.3x improvement from ONE inquiry |
| 2 | 145 | 27.6% | Flat — second inquiry doesn't help |
| 3 | 131 | 37.4% | Starts climbing again |
| 4 | 116 | 35.3% | |
| 5 | 85 | 40.0% | |
| 6-10 | 263 | 44.9% | Steady improvement |
| 11-20 | 241 | 52.7% | Inflection — majority retention |
| 21+ | 171 | 51.5% | Plateau — more inquiries don't help past ~11 |
Finding: Two step functions:
- 0 → 1 inquiry: 8.5% → 27.9% (3.3x lift). Getting any inquiry is transformative.
- 1-5 → 6-10 inquiries: ~30% → 45% (1.5x lift). Sustained inquiry flow matters.
- Past 11: plateau at ~52%. More inquiries don't help — other factors dominate.
The critical threshold is 1. But for sustained retention, the target should be 6+ inquiries over the listing's life.
| Period | No inquiry → retention | Any inquiry → retention | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 7 days | 10.3% (n=918) | 19.3% (n=296) | +9.0 pts |
| Days 7-14 | 9.9% (n=937) | 21.3% (n=277) | +11.4 pts |
| Days 14-21 | 10.2% (n=977) | 21.9% (n=237) | +11.7 pts |
| Last 7 days | 9.3% (n=962) | 25.0% (n=252) | +15.7 pts |
Finding: Recency wins. An inquiry in the last 7 days before renewal has the strongest retention signal (+15.7 pts vs +9.0 pts for first 7 days). This makes intuitive sense: a lister who got an inquiry yesterday feels value; one who got an inquiry 25 days ago has forgotten.
Implication for the metric: "Listing liquidity in the last 14 days" is better than "listing liquidity in the first 14 days" for predicting renewal. The rolling-window metric we proposed (% with inquiry in last 14d) is correct.
Implication for the product: If we could nudge demand toward listers approaching their renewal date, the retention impact would be maximal.
| Tier + Cycle | No inquiry | Any inquiry | Lift | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Monthly | 5.8% | 17.9% | +12.1 pts | 976 |
| Standard Quarterly | 31.0% | 41.4% | +10.4 pts | 241 |
| Standard Annual | 50.8% | 72.5% | +21.7 pts | 507 |
| Premium Monthly | 24.3% | 29.1% | +4.8 pts | 197 |
| Premium Quarterly | 57.9% | 75.0% | +17.1 pts | 31 |
| Premium Annual | 53.5% | 70.5% | +17.0 pts | 147 |
Finding:
- Standard Monthly has the lowest base retention (5.8%) and a strong lift (+12.1 pts). This is the segment where inquiries matter most — and where most churn happens.
- Standard Annual has the highest lift (+21.7 pts). Annual listers who get inquiries retain at 72.5% — they're committed AND getting value.
- Premium Monthly has the weakest lift (+4.8 pts). Premium listers may be less sensitive to inquiries — they're paying for features (boost, verification), not just demand. Or: the sample is small (n=197).
- The inquiry effect is universal — every segment retains better with inquiries. But the magnitude varies 5x (from +4.8 pts to +21.7 pts).
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Best window? | 14 days (captures 72% of 28d lift, actionable within a billing cycle) |
| First N days or last N days? | Last N days (rolling window). Recency matters more: +15.7 pt lift in last 7d vs +9.0 in first 7d |
| Threshold? | ≥1 inquiry is the critical step function (8.5% → 27.9%). Secondary threshold at ≥6 total (30% → 45%) |
| Endpoint? | Still active subscription (survived past first billing cycle) |
| First-time only? | Yes — apples to apples. Repeat subscribers have different retention patterns |
| Segment differences? | Standard Monthly: biggest population, strongest need (+12.1 pts). Standard Annual: highest absolute lift (+21.7 pts). Premium Monthly: weakest effect (+4.8 pts) |
The original metric was "% of paid listings with ≥1 inquiry in 14 days" measured at 55.7%.
Validated configuration:
- Window: 14 days (rolling, not from listing creation)
- Threshold: ≥1 inquiry
- Endpoint: Active subscription retention
- Population: First-time paid subscribers (for validation), all paid subscribers (for the dashboard)
- Current value: 55.7% (already measured)
- Implication: 44.3% of paid listers got zero inquiries in the last 14 days. Those listers retain at 25.8% vs 38.0% for those with inquiries. Closing this gap is the highest-ROI intervention.
Potential new metric: "% of monthly standard listers with ≥1 inquiry in last 7 days" — this is the highest-risk segment (5.8% base retention) with the strongest inquiry signal (+12.1 pts). Could be a targeted alert: "142 monthly standard listers approaching renewal with 0 inquiries this week."
All analyses: first-time paid subscribers, July 2025 – March 2026. Endpoint: stripe_status = 'active'. n=2,099 eligible.
Overall- I agree with this.
Some other things to consider
All this to say messages alone aren’t the only metric- but the value of the message.