Before picking metrics, we ran the analyses to validate which proxies actually predict the outcomes we care about.
Getting just 1 inquiry in 14 days nearly doubles lister retention (19.9% → 33.7%). Everything else we build — messaging strategy, ChurnKey, email lifecycle, pricing optimization — is secondary to this one insight. 60% of paid listers got zero inquiries this week.
| Inquiries in first 14d | Retention |
|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9% |
| 1 | 33.7% (+70%) |
| 2-3 | 36.0% |
| 4+ | ~35% |
Insight: The step function is at 1. Not 3, not 5. Get a lister one inquiry and retention nearly doubles. Beyond that, marginal returns.
| Lister responds in... | Thread completes |
|---|---|
| No reply | 0% |
| < 1 hour | 40.4% |
| 1-4 hours | 37.2% |
| 4-24 hours | 32.7% |
| 24-48 hours | 26.3% |
| > 48 hours | 18.2% |
Insight: Getting ANY reply is the biggest jump. After that, <4 hours is meaningfully better than >24 hours.
| Searcher... | Messages another listing (30d) |
|---|---|
| Got ghosted | 37.9% |
| Got a reply | 59.3% |
Insight: Searchers who get replies are 56% more likely to keep using the platform. Reply rate is a two-sided metric — it predicts both lister retention (via thread completion) and searcher retention.
| Tier | Avg inquiries/30d | % with any inquiry |
|---|---|---|
| Free | 3.17 | 55.1% |
| Standard | 4.48 | 72.0% |
| Premium | 5.63 | 70.6% |
Insight: Premium gets 26% more inquiry volume but NOT more reach (70.6% vs 72.0%). The boost is per-listing, not per-probability. Important for Pro Plan — if we promise "more visibility," the data supports "more inquiries" but not "higher chance of at least 1."
| Cycle | Retention |
|---|---|
| Annual | 50.7% |
| Quarterly | 34.8% |
| Monthly | 12.3% |
| Free | 17.0% |
Insight: Annual retention is 4.1x monthly. The annual tilt is already working (53.7% of paid subs are annual). Protect and expand this.
| Last 30 days | Value |
|---|---|
| Searchers who contacted a fraudster | 37 |
| Messages to fraudsters | 47 |
| Conversations with fraudsters | 41 |
Insight: Low numbers — the fraud system is working. Measure in people harmed (37), not events (47).
| Plan | % of paid |
|---|---|
| Standard Annual | 44.2% |
| Standard Monthly | 15.6% |
| Standard Quarterly | 13.9% |
| Premium Annual | 9.5% |
| Free | 8.4% |
| Premium Monthly | 6.6% |
| Premium Quarterly | 1.8% |
| # | Metric | Current | What it predicts | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Listing liquidity (% paid w/ ≥1 inquiry in 14d) | ~55% | Lister retention: 19.9% → 33.7% at threshold | Analysis 1 |
| 2 | Reply rate (% messages getting a reply) | 51.3% | Thread completion: 0% → 40.4% | Analysis 2 |
| 3 | Median response time | 34.1h | Completion: 40% at <1h vs 18% at >48h | Analysis 2 |
| 4 | MRR (Stripe, with discounts) | $36,085 | Revenue health (direct) | — |
| 5 | Monthly churn rate (Stripe) | ~25% | Business sustainability (direct) | — |
| 6 | Annual plan % | 53.7% | Revenue durability: 50.7% vs 12.3% retention | Analysis 5 |
| 7 | Searchers who contacted fraudsters | 37/mo | Trust / searcher harm (direct) | Analysis 6 |
| 8 | Organic → signup → message funnel | ~61.6% s→m | SEO investment ROI | Needs organic-specific data |
Messaging Strategy: The #1 lever is getting zero-inquiry listers to ≥1 inquiry. That's 1,727 listers with 19.9% retention vs 33.7% if they get just one message. This is worth more than ChurnKey, email lifecycle, and pricing optimization combined.
Pro Plan: Premium gets 26% more inquiries per listing but the same reach percentage. If Pro promises "more visibility," we need to show it delivers more reach (% with ≥1 inquiry), not just more volume per listing.
Fraud: 37 searchers affected per month is low. The system is working. Don't over-invest here — the ROI of fraud reduction is diminishing.
SEO: We need the full funnel (impressions → visits → signups → messages) to know if content investment is paying off. Without it, 135K blog impressions could be vanity.
Churn: Decompose by inquiry status. Listers with 0 inquiries need demand (marketing/matching problem). Listers with inquiries who still churn need product improvements (pricing/UX problem). Different interventions for each.
Generated 2026-04-11. All analyses run against production read-only replica.