Created
April 27, 2011 18:28
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Birthday Paradox ("Surprise") in K (Kona)
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/ This is a simulation of the "Birthday paradox" | |
/ (what I call "Birthday surprise") | |
/ See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem | |
/ Take 20 samples of 0..364 with replacement | |
/ This represents the birthday of 20 persons. | |
20 ? 365 | |
/ sample result | |
/ 195 361 24 274 145 108 157 259 51 228 330 88 180 228 86 197 121 182 336 133 | |
/ count how many unique values there are | |
/ ? here means the unique values of a vector | |
/ # here means the size | |
#?20?365 | |
/ sample result: 19 | |
/ check how many non unique values there are | |
{20-(#?20 ? 365)} | |
/ sample result: 1 | |
/ Now run this 10 times. | |
/ The phrase | |
/ {...}' !10 | |
/ means that we run the function in {} | |
/ 10 times (for 0..9) | |
{20-(#?20 ? 365)}' !10 | |
/ sample result: | |
/ 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 | |
/ Here we check how many times | |
/ there is at least one double (triple, etc), | |
/ and run for 10000 simulations. | |
/ 20 person | |
{+/x % #x}({(20-(#?20 ? 365))>0}' !10000) | |
/ sample result: 0.4147 | |
/ 23 persons | |
{+/x % #x}({(23-(#?23 ? 365))>0}' !10000) | |
/ sample result: 0.5093 | |
/ Later comment: | |
/ Scott Vokes (silentbicycle) suggested this more | |
/ direct approach (at twitter) | |
/ """ | |
/ About your birthday surprise K pg., you can also say | |
/ 10 f/init | |
/ for "run f 10x, starting w/ init" | |
/ or | |
/ 10 f\init | |
/ to save intermed. vals | |
/ """ | |
/ Here's a simulation for 20 people and 1000 trials | |
bsup:{~x=#?x?365} | |
par:{(+/x {bsup[20]}\1)%x} | |
par[1000] | |
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