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hughdbrown/swing.py

Created November 4, 2020 04:13
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2020 presidential election
Raw
gistfile1.txt
AZ: (0.3804329085751007, 0.6195670914248993, 332493.15068493155, 541493.1506849315, -209000.00000000003)
FL: (0.6779600278494492, 0.3220399721505508, 727637.3626373624, 345637.36263736244, 381999.99999999994)
GA: (0.5798898071625344, 0.42011019283746565, 1219448.2758620693, 883448.2758620695, 335999.99999999977)
IA: (0.43084455324357407, 0.5691554467564259, 352000.0, 465000.0, -112999.99999999997)
MI: (0.5424654351109562, 0.45753456488904376, 1628720.9302325586, 1373720.9302325582, 255000.0000000003)
NC: (0.6079855936413314, 0.3920144063586686, 208319.14893617015, 134319.14893617015, 74000.00000000003)
OH: (0.6330845907837039, 0.36691540921629606, 711172.8395061726, 412172.8395061726, 299000.0)
PA: (0.5496743418035043, 0.4503256581964957, 1997333.333333333, 1636333.333333333, 361000.0)
TX: (0.5517922189231381, 0.4482077810768619, 2002944.444444445, 1626944.444444445, 375999.99999999994)
WI: (0.5267461143892939, 0.47325388561070614, 718842.105263158, 645842.105263158, 73000.00000000007)
This shows Biden carrying Arizona and Iowa and losing Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
Florida, for example, shows Biden needing to get 67.7% of the remaining votes to catch up the 382k votes he would ned to get to tie.
Raw
swing.py
#!/usr/bin/env python3
def swing(a, b, p):
total = (a + b) / p
remaining = total - (a + b)
x = (remaining + b - a) / (2 * remaining)
return (x, 1 - x, x * remaining, (1 - x) * remaining, (2 * x - 1) * remaining)
print(f'AZ: {swing(1.286e6, 1.077e6, 0.73)}')
print(f'FL: {swing(5.235e6, 5.617e6, 0.91)}')
print(f'GA: {swing(1.284e6, 1.620e6, 0.58)}')
print(f'IA: {swing(0.465e6, 0.352e6, 0.50)}')
print(f'MI: {swing(1.005e6, 1.260e6, 0.43)}')
print(f'NC: {swing(2.647e6, 2.721e6, 0.94)}')
print(f'OH: {swing(2.245e6, 2.544e6, 0.81)}')
print(f'PA: {swing(1.306e6, 1.667e6, 0.45)}')
print(f'TX: {swing(4.479e6, 4.855e6, 0.72)}')
print(f'WI: {swing(0.868e6, 0.941e6, 0.57)}')
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AZ: (0.38817840554813265, 0.6118215944518673, 329783.7837837839, 519783.7837837839, -189999.99999999994)
FL: (1.3567691601652156, -0.35676916016521565, 301673.4693877548, -79326.53061224519, 380999.99999999994)
GA: (0.6311843711843712, 0.3688156288156288, 654354.430379747, 382354.4303797469, 272000.0000000001)
IA: (0.19262295081967185, 0.8073770491803282, 31333.333333333256, 131333.33333333326, -100000.0)
MI: (0.564635137830002, 0.43536486216999803, 1388981.132075471, 1070981.1320754716, 317999.99999999977)
NC: (0.6090993500464252, 0.39090064995357476, 209361.70212765972, 134361.70212765966, 75000.00000000004)
OH: (1.1605742550367952, -0.16057425503679523, 409361.7021276597, -56638.29787234028, 465999.99999999994)
PA: (0.6102255017931242, 0.3897744982068758, 1652542.3728813562, 1055542.3728813562, 597000.0000000002)
TX: (0.6056011997913406, 0.39439880020865936, 1645886.0759493671, 1071886.0759493671, 574000.0)
WI: (0.570223534373682, 0.429776465626318, 450666.66666666674, 339666.66666666674, 111000.00000000004)

Biden is behind by more votes in Ohio than there are left to be cast. Ohio has been called for Trump.
Biden is behind by more votes in Florida than are left uncounted. But no one has called Florida yet.

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