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ikashnitsky/odds-qatar.R

Last active December 3, 2022 12:50
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Were there too many sensations in Qatar? What if I bet the same amount against the odds in all the group-stage games?
Raw
odds-qatar.R
#===============================================================================
# 2022-12-03 -- misc
# World Cup games odds
# Ilya Kashnitsky, [email protected], @ikashnitsky
#===============================================================================
library(tidyverse)
library(magrittr)
library(rvest)
library(ggrepel)
library(sysfonts)
library(showtext)
library(prismatic)
sysfonts::font_add_google("Atkinson Hyperlegible", "ah")
showtext_auto()
# Data come from:
# https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/world/world-cup-2022/results/
odds <- read_delim("https://gist.githubusercontent.com/ikashnitsky/aa56f8d30046c44d3f59c0047033e820/raw/fce43c649ec7c76357c7082577148551b9ef8574/raw-data.txt") %>%
set_names(letters[1:5]) %>%
filter(! seq_along(a) %in% c(seq(5, 55, 5), 59)) %>%
separate(b, into = c("team_1", "team_2"), sep = " - ") %>%
separate(c, into = c("goals_1", "goals_2")) %>%
separate(e, into = c("odds_draw", "odds_2", "waste"), sep = "\t") %>%
transmute(
team_1, team_2,
goals_1 = goals_1 %>% as.numeric,
goals_2 = goals_2 %>% as.numeric,
odds_1 = d,
odds_draw = odds_draw %>% as.numeric,
odds_2 = odds_2 %>% as.numeric
)
pred <- odds %>%
mutate(
outcome = case_when(
goals_1 > goals_2 ~ "team_1",
goals_1 < goals_2 ~ "team_2",
TRUE ~ "draw"
)
) %>%
group_by(id = 49 - seq_along(team_1)) %>%
mutate(my_bet = max(odds_1, odds_draw, odds_2)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
mutate(
winning_bet = case_when(
goals_1 > goals_2 ~ odds_1,
goals_1 < goals_2 ~ odds_2,
TRUE ~ odds_draw
),
# THE LOGIC: whenever I lose the bet, I just lose 1 coin
# whenever my unlikely bet works, I receive the odds amount
# minus my initially risked coin
win = case_when(
my_bet == winning_bet ~ my_bet - 1,
TRUE ~ -1
)
) %>%
arrange(id) %>%
mutate(
cum = win %>% cumsum()
)
pred %>%
filter(my_bet == winning_bet) %>%
view()
set.seed(126)
pred %>%
ggplot(aes(id, cum))+
geom_hline(yintercept = c(0), size = .5, color = 2)+
# geom_step(aes(id, id), size = 1, color = 7, alpha = .75)+
geom_step(color = "#444444", alpha = .5)+
geom_point(data = . %>% filter(my_bet == winning_bet))+
geom_text_repel(
data = . %>% filter(my_bet == winning_bet),
aes(label = paste(team_1, goals_1, ":", goals_2, team_2)),
size = 2.7, color = "#444444", hjust = 1, fontface = 2
)+
scale_x_continuous(breaks = c(seq(0, 40, 10),48), position = "top")+
scale_y_continuous(position = "right")+
labs(
x = "All the group-stage games of FIFA World Cup 2022, ordered chronologically",
y = "Net balance",
title = "Were there too many sensations in Qatar?",
caption = "\nData: oddsportal.com/soccer/world/world-cup-2022/results // Design: @[email protected]"
)+
theme_minimal(base_family = "ah")+
theme(
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
plot.background = element_rect(fill = "#dadada", color = NA),
plot.title = element_text(size = 22, face = 2, color = "#444444")
)+
annotate(
"text", label = "Imagine, I put 1 coin per game betting against the odds" %>% str_wrap(32),
size = 6.7, color = 2 %>% clr_darken(), alpha = .85,
x = 1, y = 59, hjust = 0, vjust = 1,
family = "ah", lineheight = .9, fontface = 2
)+
annotate(
"text", label = "I start with a 0 net balance, and every game it reduces by one coin... unless a sensation happens and my balance increases as I win the unlikely bet" %>% str_wrap(42),
size = 4, color = 2 %>% clr_darken(), alpha = .85,
x = 1, y = 45, hjust = 0, vjust = 1,
family = "ah", lineheight = .9
)+
annotate(
"text", label = "If I'm above the zero line that means I'm in a net profit, benefiting from betting at the sensations" %>% str_wrap(35),
size = 4.4, color = 2 %>% clr_darken(), alpha = .75,
x = 47, y = 14, hjust = 1, vjust = 1,
family = "ah", lineheight = .9
)
Raw
raw-data.txt
Today, 02 Dec 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Cameroon - Brazil 01.00 8.93 5.32 1.36 18
19.00 Serbia - Switzerland 02.03 2.58 3.36 2.85 18
15.00 Ghana - Uruguay 00.02 4.49 3.82 1.79 18
15.00 South Korea - Portugal 02.01 4.26 3.84 1.85 18
Yesterday, 01 Dec 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Costa Rica - Germany 02.04 23.79 11.17 1.1 18
19.00 Japan - Spain 02.01 7.04 4.49 1.49 18
15.00 Canada - Morocco 01.02 4.78 3.49 1.84 18
15.00 Croatia - Belgium 00.00 3.02 3.41 2.44 18
30/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Poland - Argentina 00.02 8.2 4.57 1.44 18
19.00 Saudi Arabia - Mexico 01.02 5.35 4.28 1.62 18
15.00 Australia - Denmark 01.00 7.38 4.89 1.43 18
15.00 Tunisia - France 01.00 6.01 3.92 1.62 18
29/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Iran - USA 00.01 4.18 3.49 1.95 18
19.00 Wales - England 00.03 8.81 4.45 1.43 18
15.00 Ecuador - Senegal 01.02 2.48 3.08 3.23 18
15.00 Netherlands - Qatar 02.00 1.21 7 14.51 18
28/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Portugal - Uruguay 02.00 1.93 3.35 4.49 18
16.00 Brazil - Switzerland 01.00 1.5 4.28 7.6 18
13.00 South Korea - Ghana 02.03 2.76 3.13 2.8 18
10.00 Cameroon - Serbia 03.03 5.3 3.77 1.71 18
27/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Spain - Germany 01.01 2.54 3.42 2.84 18
16.00 Croatia - Canada 04.01 2.23 3.27 3.55 18
13.00 Belgium - Morocco 00.02 1.9 3.45 4.52 18
10.00 Japan - Costa Rica 00.01 1.49 4.32 7.47 18
26/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Argentina - Mexico 02.00 1.55 3.95 7.12 18
16.00 France - Denmark 02.01 1.82 3.6 4.84 18
13.00 Poland - Saudi Arabia 02.00 1.73 3.64 5.43 18
10.00 Tunisia - Australia 00.01 2.21 3.32 3.52 18
25/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 England - USA 00.00 1.48 4.26 7.96 18
16.00 Netherlands - Ecuador 01.01 1.83 3.44 4.99 18
13.00 Qatar - Senegal 01.03 5.5 3.6 1.73 18
10.00 Wales - Iran 00.02 2.14 3.18 3.87 18
24/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Brazil - Serbia 02.00 1.47 4.57 7.23 18
16.00 Portugal - Ghana 03.02 1.32 5.49 10.21 18
13.00 Uruguay - South Korea 00.00 1.78 3.55 5.1 18
10.00 Switzerland - Cameroon 01.00 1.81 3.45 5.02 18
23/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 Belgium - Canada 01.00 1.58 4.21 5.92 18
16.00 Spain - Costa Rica 07.00 1.16 8.42 17.43 18
13.00 Germany - Japan 01.02 1.45 4.85 7.28 18
10.00 Morocco - Croatia 00.00 3.57 3.28 2.21 18
22/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 France - Australia 04.01 1.22 6.8 13.86 17
16.00 Mexico - Poland 00.00 2.51 3.13 3.14 17
13.00 Denmark - Tunisia 00.00 1.58 3.92 6.57 17
10.00 Argentina - Saudi Arabia 01.02 1.12 9.21 25.52 17
21/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
19.00 USA - Wales 01.01 2.47 3.09 3.22 17
16.00 Senegal - Netherlands 00.02 6.1 3.67 1.66 17
13.00 England - Iran 06.02 1.38 4.65 10.2 17
20/Nov/22 1 X 2 B's
16.00 Qatar - Ecuador 00.02 3.71 3.14 2.24 17
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