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Elon Musk Startship presentation 2019 youtube transcript. This is the text from youtube auto-caption and it needs to be fixed in many places but thats a good place to start from
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it's quite windy here its side down well | |
though I good it's it's this is oh | |
actually wasn't expected to be this | |
windy hopefully you can actually hear | |
what I'm saying okay great great | |
so this is this is I think the most | |
inspiring thing that I have ever seen | |
and I just like to thank the SpaceX team | |
and the the suppliers and the the people | |
of Brook chic and Brownsville thank you | |
for your support and just like wow what | |
an incredible job by such a great team | |
to build this incredible vehicle so it's | |
like first of all want to stop that I'm | |
just so so so so proud to work with such | |
a great team and it's really ripping | |
here by the way if you're watching this | |
online it is like it was really windy so | |
the the point of this this presentation | |
and this is this event it is really | |
there are two elements to it one is to | |
inspire the public and get people | |
excited about our future in space and | |
and get people fired up about the future | |
the you know what what there are so many | |
things to worry about so many things to | |
be concerned about there's there are | |
many troubles in the world of course and | |
we are important and we need to solve | |
them but we also need things that make | |
us excited to be alive that make us glad | |
to wake up in the morning and be fired | |
up about the future and think yeah the | |
future is gonna be great | |
you know and and this space exploration | |
is one of those things and becoming a | |
spacefaring civilization being out there | |
among the stars this is one of the | |
things that I know makes it makes me | |
glad to be alive I think it makes many | |
people glad to be alive it's one of the | |
best things and this really weird face with a | |
choice which future do you want do you | |
want the future where we become a | |
spacefaring civilization and are in many | |
worlds and now out there among the stars | |
or one where we are forever confined to | |
earth and I say it is the first and I | |
hope you agree with me yeah so so what | |
what the critical breakthrough that's | |
needed for us to become a spacefaring | |
civilization is to make space travel | |
like air travel so with with air travel | |
you could be when you fly a plane you | |
fly that plane many times I mean the | |
risk of stating the obvious it really | |
almost any motor transport whether it's | |
a plane a car a horse the bicycle is | |
reusable you use that motor transport | |
many times and if you had to get a new | |
plane every time you flew somewhere and | |
even get have two planes for a return | |
journey very few people could afford to | |
fly or if you could use a car only once | |
very few people could afford to drive a | |
car so the critical breakthrough that's | |
necessary is a rapidly reusable orbital | |
rocket this is what this is basically | |
the holy grail of space and the | |
fundamental thing that's required and it | |
is a very hard thing to do it's only | |
barely possible with with the physics of | |
of Earth I mean if gravity first gravity | |
was a little heavier it would be it | |
would be impossible and if the Earth's | |
gravity was a little lighter it would be | |
quite easy so we're really right on the | |
cusp of what is physically possible so | |
you know in order to create a rapidly | |
reusable rocket and fully reusable over | |
a rocket you have to have engines that | |
are have incredibly high specific | |
impulse that have that essentially are | |
extremely efficient you have a structure | |
that is also incredibly mass efficient | |
and and then that all needs to come back | |
to the launchpad and be able to be | |
refilled with propellants and flown | |
again very quickly just like an aircraft | |
so it's just it's just because of the | |
physics of of earth being having being | |
quite a deep gravity well and having | |
quite a thick atmosphere this is this is | |
a a vert as this is a tough but not | |
impossible thing but it is the most | |
fundamental thing so with SpaceX we we | |
started out 17 years ago and the first | |
rocket we designed was the the Falcon | |
one which was that guy right there | |
dragged off | |
state separation your separation | |
confirmed so so Falcon one we thought I | |
mean we started off we were very naive | |
and in fact the reason I should say the | |
reason it's September 28th was of terror | |
this is the 11th anniversary of the | |
first time SpaceX reached orbit so 11 | |
years ago today SpaceX made overt for the first time and | |
it it was actually out it was our fourth | |
launch and if we if that launch had not | |
succeeded a SpaceX that would have been | |
the end of SpaceX that was all I'd run | |
out of money they would know there are | |
no more investors and and that would | |
have been it so if that fourth launch | |
had not succeeded that would have been curtains but | |
fortunately fate smiled on us that day | |
and we made it to of it I've great | |
respect for anyone who makes it to orbit | |
that's a hard thing and then we were | |
very naive obviously very much money | |
about naive on on many levels back back | |
then because we did actually try to | |
recover the first stage so the first | |
stage had a parachute on it and and we | |
okay we'll just pop the parachute when | |
it comes back into the atmosphere and | |
then it'll land somewhere in the ocean | |
we'll go fish it out of the ocean with a | |
boat this is not this does not work so | |
and I actually remember getting mad at | |
the parachute supplier like yeah your | |
parachute didn't work like now wasn't | |
their fault when the rocket comes in | |
from from space it's coming in the first | |
stage is coming in like you know Mach 10 | |
to 12 and it hits the atmosphere like | |
it's a concrete wall and boom so you | |
actually have to orient the rocket | |
carefully you have to have aerodynamic | |
surfaces you have to do | |
an entry burn to slow it down you got | |
then you've got a guided through the | |
atmosphere and then your propulsive | |
landing this took us many many attempts | |
and we actually did like a video of a | |
blooper reel of all the times we failed | |
which was a line I think it might have | |
taken us like 14 attempts or something | |
before we finally successfully landed | |
the rocket so so we're gone to the next | |
slide you can take a look at this is | |
grasshopper this is the that's actually | |
Falcon 9 it's hard to tell the scale but | |
that's that's a falcon 9 size booster | |
with one engine and and big legs with | |
giant shock absorbers we don't know what | |
the heck we're doing now amazingly | |
grasshopper | |
haha the cows are confused | |
yeah so the that was a so that they have | |
Falcon one what you saw there was a | |
Falcon 9 size vehicle and and then | |
what's really kind of hard to grasp at a | |
visceral level is that this giant ship | |
will do the same thing that grasshopper | |
did so this is this thing is going to | |
take off fly to 65,000 feet about 20 | |
kilometers and come back and land in | |
about one to two months so that giant | |
thing it's really going to be pretty | |
epic to see that thing take off and come | |
back and then hopefully yeah | |
yeah as well so now I there's this is a | |
quite radical I'll talk about it later | |
their presentation is this is a quite | |
quite a new approach to controlling | |
controlling a rocket much work into a | |
skydiver than a plane but I'll talk | |
about that later so going from from | |
Falcon Falcon 9 to talk and heavy which | |
we launched actually the first vulture | |
punkin heavy was only February of last | |
year so it's only been about a year and | |
a half since the first Bell can have you | |
launched when we did two side-by-side | |
booster landings and I was like this | |
video that was done by my friend Jonah | |
it's a god-awful smaller bear | |
to the goal of the massiere but tamami | |
is yelling no | |
and the daddy is chosen to go but a | |
friend is nowhere to be seen now she | |
walks through the Sun country | |
to the seat with the clearest view | |
and she's look to the silver screen but | |
the bill is a sad thing for but she's | |
missed it 10 times oh my | |
she could speak to me I suppose but they | |
No | |
mr. live on my | |
I never thought that would happen | |
actually that that it did yeah | |
that's my like the the you know some | |
people were like why why why do we have | |
the roadster with the astronauts you | |
know storm and and I was actually just | |
came from discussion of my friend Jonas | |
I where's the kitchen and I was like you | |
know normally when they do a rocket | |
launch they launch a rocket concrete but | |
that sounds doesn't sound very inspiring | |
so what do you think the most is if what | |
you doing the most sort of fun thing is | |
that we could launch and he was like | |
what are you sir Tesla and that's a | |
great idea yeah and they're not friends | |
she said why don't you put a tiny Tesla | |
on the dashboard so we put a tiny | |
treasure on the dashboard with a tiny | |
storm and in the tiny chairs well this | |
is just to confuse the aliens in the | |
future so yeah you know just weren't | |
something I capture the imagination get | |
people excited about space so let's see | |
you starship so this is what you can | |
really see it right there obviously | |
there's a picture or a rendering it's | |
about 150 about 550 meters so you know | |
but sort of 165 feet or so and yeah so | |
this trip I think actually I noticed we | |
have an error in our ship dry mass here | |
my apologies I wish it was 85 tonnes the | |
ship prime has to be approximately 120 | |
tonnes but this the the initial Mach 1 | |
prototype is closer to 200 tons and the | |
in series production I think it'll | |
probably be about 120 tons if we get | |
really lucky it might get down to | |
110 99 would be super epic so but in | |
terms of its usefulness it'll be able to | |
do about 150 tons with full reusability | |
to orbit and back so this is this is a | |
very you know big number for full | |
reusability the the the very initial | |
versions we're confident we'll do over | |
100 tons but I think we've basically a | |
path to 150 tons and the the cost of a | |
fully reusable system is basically the | |
cost of the propellant which is mostly | |
oxygen this is through three and a half | |
tons of oxygen oxygen for every one ton | |
of fuel so one of the advantages of the | |
of this architecture over the Falcon | |
architecture is that we actually use | |
more oxygen per unit of fuel rather than | |
less so Merlin or the the the Falcon | |
architecture is about two and a half | |
tons oxygen for every one ton of fuel | |
this is three and a half tons of oxygen | |
for every one ton of fuel so when this | |
ascends it's really mostly liquid oxygen | |
because when you get to vacuum there's | |
no air basically so yeah the next line | |
um earlier I was talking about how | |
starship enters and how its controlled | |
it's it's really it's quite different | |
from anything else it's really falling | |
and so we're doing a controlled fall so | |
with a rocket you're actually trying to | |
break as opposed to you're trying to | |
create drag instead of lift it's really | |
the opposite of an aircraft you want the | |
most amount of drag that you can produce | |
and you want some lift especially when | |
you're in the upper atmosphere most | |
leases that you don't you can control | |
the maximum heating rate you want enough | |
lift to keep yourself high in the the | |
low density portion of the atmosphere so | |
you can you can you can burn off | |
velocity | |
and and then you say you won't and and | |
but but then you know basically it goes | |
like if this is the this is the earth it | |
goes it goes at about a 60 degree my | |
hand is rugged it's going at about sixty | |
degrees or so when twin in orbit you're | |
actually going at around 25 times the | |
speed of sound horizontal to the ground | |
so this is a very important concept that | |
is counterintuitive to our normal daily | |
life being in orbit being in zero-g is | |
not about altitude it's about velocity | |
how fast are you going | |
horizontally so when something's in | |
orbit it's zooming around the earth so | |
fast that the outward acceleration | |
outward radial acceleration is equal to | |
the inward acceleration of gravity and | |
then you have zero gravity this is why | |
you actually have zero gravity the space | |
station people often think the space | |
station is stationary but it's actually | |
going around the world at 25 times the | |
speed of sound or about 17,000 miles an | |
hour | |
they look it always looks stationary in | |
the pictures and since there's no error | |
you don't have to have a an aerodynamic | |
structure so you can be a totally crazy | |
structure that doesn't look like you | |
should be able to go 25 times the speed | |
of sound but it does and you can only | |
feel acceleration you can't feel | |
velocity so people sometimes like to | |
wonder what does it feel like to go 25 | |
times speed of sound actually it feels | |
like nothing only accelerating to there | |
feels like something so so that so the | |
starship is coming in this is the this | |
platform is the earth it's coming in at | |
hypersonic velocity like this sort of | |
around a 60 degree angle so it comes | |
like this and then starts falling and | |
then just falls like a skydiver and it's | |
just controlling itself and then it | |
turns and Lance like that | |
incredibly elaborate explanation and | |
then you can get a sense for you this is | |
much better | |
there you go but it'll look totally nuts | |
to see that thing laughs yeah crazy Wow | |
cool so let's see - Matt the Raptor | |
engine so there's the ship we'll have a | |
total of six engines three of the | |
c-level variety of Raptor and those are | |
actually on the rocket right now so we | |
have the three EC level in fact that's a | |
picture of just inside that skirt that's | |
what it looks like so we've got the | |
three sea level Raptor engines and they | |
take gimbal which is which means that | |
the whole engine moves so the weight of | |
rocket steers is by moving the entire | |
engine so whereas an aircraft engine is | |
static and you move by moving like the | |
control surfaces like the airlock | |
ailerons and rudder and elevator and | |
flaps this in this the rocket ship when | |
the engines are powered you move the | |
entire engine to steer it but so the | |
starship will have three c-level engines | |
that move up to about 15 degrees angle | |
and three vacuum engines that are | |
optimized for efficiency that will be | |
that will not move so there will be just | |
fixed in place and that allows us to | |
have the biggest Bell nozzle for the for | |
the Raptor before the for the vacuum | |
Raptor engines and aspirationally the | |
the target is a 380 second ISP for the | |
vacuum engine this is a very sort of | |
space geek terms this is like a really a | |
great number and and even for the estilo | |
engines to get over 350 second ISP is | |
also really great so | |
actually sorry I'm looking at the slide | |
you're not so that's what I meant by it | |
books like that on the inside and try to | |
get back on assignment that's the that's | |
the inside of the starship right now so | |
that's what it looks like in the base | |
all right and then heat shield so it | |
we've gone through various iterations of | |
heat shield there's a lot of ways to | |
skin the cat here the ultimately recited | |
to have heat shield hexagonal tiles | |
ceramic tiles that are basically like a | |
tiny glass vermicelli about a micro | |
structure level it's a very very light | |
but but but very crack resistant | |
essentially a glass tiles and they are | |
you we could because the starship is a | |
steel construction like at first it | |
feels like oats deal is that mean it's | |
heavy no actually it's the lightest | |
construction this is steel is the best | |
thing is the I think the best thing | |
about best design decision on this whole | |
thing is a 301 stainless steel because | |
at cryogenic temperatures a 301 | |
stainless actually has about the same | |
effective strength as an advanced | |
composite or aluminum lithium | |
unlike most Steel's which get brittle at | |
low temperature a 301 stainless gets | |
much stronger and if it's in the in the | |
in the in the extra hot condition | |
meaning it's cold roll to extra heart | |
condition it also gets way stronger so | |
it gets its actually gets its it | |
strength to weight ratio at cryogenic | |
temperatures is equivalent or even have | |
slightly better then then advanced | |
composites or aluminum lithium this is | |
this is not well appreciated because if | |
you just look at the materials manual | |
and say like what what is the strength | |
of stainless steel its it looks much | |
weaker than is you say what is the | |
strength at cryogenic temperature Oh | |
much much stronger | |
you know at very low temperature almost | |
twice as strong that's when it becomes | |
better than then carbon fiber or school | |
or alumina lithium and this is another | |
benefit it also has a high melting | |
temperature so for a reusable ship | |
you're coming in like a meteor you want | |
something that does not melt at a low | |
temperature you want something else at a | |
high temperature and this is where steel | |
is extremely good as well so it's you | |
know steel has a melting temperature | |
around sort of 1500 degrees centigrade | |
whereas aluminum you you know maybe 300 | |
or 400 degrees and same thing for carbon | |
fiber and that's really pushing it | |
you know you so this is how having that | |
much high melting temperature means that | |
you don't need any shielding on the the | |
leeward side of there of the ship when | |
it comes in for entry and and the | |
fielding you need on the windward side | |
the hot side is massively reduced | |
because the the thickness of the tile is | |
actually for a reusable system is | |
dependent on what backshell temperature | |
like how hot does the back of the tile | |
that interfaces with the airframe gets | |
and because the steel can take a much | |
higher temperature your your heat shield | |
even on the windward side as much it is | |
much lighter but the net effect is that | |
a 301 stainless steel rocket is actually | |
the lightest possible reusable | |
architecture then then it comes to come | |
to cost the their carbon fiber we were | |
using was a hundred and thirty dollars a | |
time the steel is $2,500 a time it's 32 | |
- yeah 25 say the $130,000 a time versus | |
$2,500 town every source person so if | |
it's one hundred and thirty thousand | |
dollars a ton for the carbon fiber and | |
$2,500 a ton for the steel so this deal | |
is about two percent of the costs of the | |
carbon fiber | |
so this is a good thing we changed from | |
corn fiber steel by far and and very | |
easy to weld stainless steel the | |
evidence being that we welded it | |
outdoors without a factory so great | |
skills by the team but with with carbon | |
fiber this is impossible | |
with aluminum lithium also impossible | |
but steel is very easy to weld and it is | |
resilient to the elements and also | |
actually as Torsten earlier say like on | |
mars you can like cut that up you can | |
weld it you can modify it no problem | |
yeah that's a good point | |
you're out there on the moon or mars you | |
you want something that you can modify | |
that you can cut up and use for other | |
things that's like for sure great thing | |
so anyway steel obviously I'm in love to | |
steal you know it's time I had to say it | |
you know so great so let's see going | |
onto the booster | |
so the the booster is designed to take | |
up to 37 rafter engines I'm not sure if | |
we go that high but you can really you | |
know have a 31 I think like the minimum | |
number you'd want is you know maybe | |
around 24 | |
but the booster is designed to be able | |
to take multiple engines out so you can | |
actually add or subtract engines as | |
you'd like you just need a lot of force | |
pushing up over time I think the product | |
you probably want around a 7500 ton | |
force rocket which is about twice the | |
thrust of a Saturn 5 a little more than | |
twice as thrust and and on a roughly | |
5000 ton lift lift off gross little mass | |
so for roughly one-and-a-half | |
thrust-to-weight for a reusable rocket | |
you actually want a high | |
thrust-to-weight rather than it with an | |
expendable rocket where you want a low | |
thrust to weight because any thrust away | |
below 1 is not useful like if you if you | |
if you have a less thrust than your | |
weight you don't move so you actually | |
want to high thrust-to-weight for a | |
reusable rocket this is a very important | |
design optimization change so that's why | |
I think you know more engine is probably | |
good and getting up to around 7,500 tons | |
over time and why don't have two one one | |
and a half thrust to weight ratio that | |
one more so and we think we're probably | |
going to adjust the griffin design to be | |
kind of like a work like a diamond shape | |
it looks cooler and it works better too | |
and then the the rear fins are actually | |
just legs so they're not they don't need | |
needed for stabilization or guidance | |
they're they're essentially there for | |
four legs alright so some let's go into | |
some of the development testing | |
this is a raptor firing | |
all right and then obviously we had a | |
raptor a fire on the star hopper yeah | |
it's kind of hard to see skin to | |
appreciate scale but it's the same | |
diameter as starship and obviously it's | |
just right over there | |
so it's kind of hard to tell if it's the | |
size of a trash can or you know how big | |
it is but it's it's a it's about the | |
body diameter is about 39 meters or 30 | |
feet not including the leg span | |
this gives you a sense of size so the | |
little pixels there and that's a little | |
little pixels or a human and then this | |
the hopper next to it the Millennium | |
Falcon for comparison then starship | |
which is what you see before you and | |
then that's what it's look will look | |
like with the full stack which is almost | |
two and a half times as tall as this | |
vehicle this simulation will give you a | |
sense of the scale of things | |
slightly reminds me of the scene from | |
spaceball | |
bottle refilling is extremely important | |
for getting some awesome getting food | |
it's supposed to happen she gets it e27 | |
establish video on the moon Eliza misses | |
final step | |
to Mars | |
so yeah so they're a rapidly reusable | |
over the launcher a rocket is a rapidly | |
reusable rocket is required for | |
liberation before achieved if we're | |
getting a breakthrough in cost of access | |
to space that you don't throw the | |
Rockets away every every flight but an | |
another key step is refilling on-orbit | |
so that the starship can get to orbit | |
with let's say a hundred and fifty tons | |
of payload for the Moon or Mars or | |
beyond and then it can get tankard to | |
fill up its propellant tanks and so they | |
could it can depart from low-earth orbit | |
with 1200 tons of propellant this is a | |
very big thing so that you're your Delta | |
velocity is enough to transport 150 350 | |
tons to the surface of the Moon or Mars | |
with with full reusability and orbital | |
refilling which is essentially the | |
overall refilling is actually a | |
simplified version of what SpaceX does | |
in or in docking with the space station | |
so it's actually harder to dock with the | |
space station than it is to do orbital | |
refilling but in practicing in talking | |
with the space station the SpaceX has | |
also learned how to rendezvous and dock | |
in orbit in a complex environment so | |
this is one of the other critical pieces | |
of the puzzle needed needed to establish | |
a base on the moon Mars city ultimately | |
and yeah those are the critical | |
ingredients so we think would be very | |
exciting to have a base on the moon even | |
if it's just a science base that you | |
know we have to accrue at for example we | |
have a base at and Antarctica many many | |
countries have bases in Antartica for | |
science research and this would be an | |
incredible area of research so whether | |
or not people want to live on the moon | |
there's definitely a lot of science to | |
be done and I think this is close as | |
well so that's that would be quite | |
exciting to do and then of course we can | |
go other to other places in the solar | |
system like Saturn and but the critical | |
thing that we need to focus on I think | |
is the fastest path to a self-sustaining | |
City on Mars this is the this is the | |
fundamental thing | |
as far as we know as far as we know we | |
are the only consciousness or the only | |
life that's out there there might be | |
other life but we've seen no signs of it | |
if people often ask me if you what are | |
you what do you know about the aliens on | |
that you know I'm like man I tell you if | |
I'm pretty sure I know you know if | |
aliens I have not seen any sign of | |
aliens and so is the military hiding | |
aliens in area 51 or something you know | |
that's a popular meme yeah well let me | |
tell you the biggest the fastest way to | |
increase defense funding would be to | |
bring out like hey we found an alien | |
you're like more money for defense | |
definitely guaranteed they're out that | |
would be like on display in two seconds | |
so yeah so there the reality is as far | |
as we know this is the only place at | |
least in this part of the galaxy or in | |
the Milky Way where there is | |
consciousness and it's taken a long time | |
for us to get to this point you know | |
according to the the geological records | |
that's been around for about | |
four-and-a-half billion years well there | |
was mostly molten magma for about half a | |
billion years so but still several | |
billion years with at least bacterial | |
life and multicellular life for several | |
hundred million years but here's the | |
interesting part like the the Sun is | |
gradually getting hotter and bigger and | |
over time even in the absence of global | |
warming man-made stuff the the Sun will | |
expand and will it will overheat the | |
earth my guess is probably this is on | |
human timescales this is a long time but | |
it's that there's only you know several | |
hundred million years left that's all | |
that's all we got okay several hundred | |
million years | |
but it sort of in if from an | |
evolutionary standpoint basically if it | |
took an extra 10% longer for conscious | |
life to evolve on earth | |
it wouldn't evolve at all because it | |
would have been incinerated by the Sun | |
so so what I'm saying is that it appears | |
that consciousness is a very rare and | |
precious thing and we should take | |
whatever steps we can to preserve the | |
light of consciousness and the window | |
the window has been open only now after | |
four and a half billion years is that | |
window open as there's a long time to | |
wait and it might not stay open for long | |
I'm pretty optimistic by Nature but | |
there's some chance there's some chance | |
that window will not be open for long | |
and I think we should become a multi | |
planet civilization while that window is | |
open and if we do I think the probable | |
outcome for Earth is even better if | |
because then you know Mars could help | |
earth one day you know and so I think we | |
should really do our very best to become | |
a multi-planet species and to extend | |
consciousness beyond Earth and we should | |
do it now thank you | |
ladies and gentlemen we'll be commencing | |
a QA session in just five minutes so | |
please hang hang out and hang tight | |
once again ladies and gentlemen please | |
sit tight we're going to be doing a Q&A | |
session with Elon in just five minutes | |
please stick around | |
oh yeah any questions yeah hi hi Neal on | |
Irene Klotz with aviation we can you | |
hear any yep um thank you for the | |
overview can you tell us a little bit | |
more details about the flight test | |
program for this and the mark - | |
absolutely | |
just turn the music off I can't quite | |
hear because of this music playing oh no | |
I'm sorry | |
trouble you say it again yes thank you | |
um can you talk a little bit more | |
details about the flight test program | |
for both this mark 1 and the mark 2 | |
vehicle in Florida and what the | |
progression is to get to orbital flight | |
and then a test flight or a commercial | |
mission with the full vehicle sure so | |
with any development into uncharted | |
territory it is difficult to predict | |
these things with precision but I do | |
think things are going to move very fast | |
so our plan is in basically one to two | |
months to do the the 20 kilometer or 65 | |
foot flight with starship Mach 1 | |
our next flight after that might | |
actually just be all the way to orbit | |
with a booster and the ship most this is | |
I'm giving you just literally stream of | |
consciousness here most likely most | |
likely we would not fly to over it with | |
Mach 1 but we would fight over it with | |
Mach 3 which we built after Mach one | |
right here in fact we'll start building | |
it in about a month so yeah and actually | |
so sorry to say this mid question but I | |
did want to make sure to thank you suck | |
umezawa for his great support yeah he's | |
awesome | |
you start 2020 that's his handle that's | |
great handle anyway he's a super cool | |
dude and he's like you know we're | |
putting a lot of serious resources to | |
helping out starship so I want to thank | |
him very much for that the okay so yeah | |
just to frame things we are going to be | |
building ships and boosters at both Boca | |
and the Cape as fast as we can and and | |
and each successive yet absolutely I | |
mean it's gonna be really nutty to see a | |
bunch of these things I mean not just | |
one but a whole stack of them and we're | |
improving both the design and the | |
manufacturing method exponentially so | |
for example with the current way that we | |
build this or the way that walk 1 and | |
mach 2 cylindrical sections were built | |
was in with basically plates so a series | |
of plates to create each some of the | |
section with Mach 3 and beyond we will | |
literally take the coil of steel from | |
the middle unspool it change the | |
curvature to a nine meter diameter and | |
do a single seam weld and it'll also be | |
thinner which makes it lighter and | |
cheaper | |
so the rate at which we will be building | |
ships is going to be quite quite crazy | |
by space standards I think we'll | |
probably have Mach 2 built within a | |
couple of months or or less and Mach 3 | |
maybe three months that type of thing | |
Mach 4 four months maybe five months and | |
we would seek to go to orbit with | |
probably mark four or Mach five so we | |
would I mean this is gonna sound totally | |
nuts but I think we want to try to reach | |
over in less than six months | |
I mean provide provided at the rates the | |
rate of technical design improvement and | |
manufacturing improvement continues to | |
be exponential I think that is a you | |
know accurate to within a few months hi | |
Elon my name is Steve Clark I'm with the | |
Brownsville Herald back in September | |
2014 of the groundbreaking he said that | |
the first crewed interplanetary mission | |
could possibly leave yes can you hear me | |
could possibly leave from Boca Chica do | |
you think that's still the case yes is I | |
think definitely possible that the first | |
crewed mission on starship could leave | |
from Boca the we actually are internally | |
competing the Cape the Cape and and Boca | |
so I think I think both will both places | |
will to the best of my knowledge both | |
places will launch crewed missions so I | |
think it is extremely likely that we | |
will launch crewed missions from Boca | |
and there is a at least a 50% chance | |
that it is the first mission yeah thank | |
you very much | |
Halon Tim Dodd the everyday astronaut | |
how are you I was good good yeah they | |
have great questions online thanks you | |
have great answers so uh that belly flop | |
to tail down maneuver I know that's | |
something to see is that first one this | |
one right here you know 20 kilometers is | |
it going to come in that hot and do that | |
that flip that fast | |
yeah right here or is it gonna be out on | |
the drone ship like that's gonna it's | |
basically right where hopper took off | |
yeah that's basically where it's gonna | |
take off you know within yeah very close | |
to where it's just right over there you | |
know so yeah that maneuver that you see | |
you so it will execute now with no when | |
we get to I think maybe Mach 3 certainly | |
Mach 4 I think probably that will be a | |
good time to transition to hot hot gas | |
thrusters and from cold gas thrusters so | |
using essentially compressed nitrogen of | |
gas as the coal gas thruster is a pretty | |
low ISP you know sort of 67 if you're | |
very lucky but very close to the 60 with | |
with math ox thruster you can get | |
without really even trying hard a 300 | |
ISP even if you just boom cool the walls | |
without even regen cooling if you if you | |
regen cool it 350 no problem 360 even so | |
you're talking about something that's | |
that then five or six times the mass | |
efficiency of the nitrogen thrusters | |
that are Mach 1 and if you have | |
thrusters of that efficiency then we | |
don't need to use use the Raptors to | |
correct the horizontal velocity because | |
right now it's actually winner doing the | |
Raptors fire | |
the Raptors kick it up kick it over but | |
but they're they're actually accelerate | |
the vehicle in the wrong direction then | |
they have to cook over correct and they | |
come back whereas if you have strong | |
enough thrust row so you could just | |
using the onboard maneuvering thrusters | |
without lighting the main engines you | |
just go kick it hard light the | |
land that be you know that's better yeah | |
and then are those pressure fed then | |
those yeah yeah yeah those we just | |
pressure fit a high-pressure gas a myth | |
ox and so you have a high pressure you | |
know ch4 what a high pressure o2 bottle | |
and then the great thing is like those | |
those they don't care what attitude | |
you're at you be at any attitude any you | |
know any G's any attitude it'll still | |
fire yeah yeah yeah hi Yvonne I'm Tim | |
Fernholz from quartz thanks so much for | |
taking the time okay two questions if I | |
may one just technical following up on | |
the presentation do useful stuff in | |
orbit you're gonna need the booster as | |
well as the starship right yes you would | |
get this Sasha okay it cannot get to | |
Earth orbit without the booster but | |
anywhere except Earth pretty much well | |
not counting Venus but like the Mars or | |
the moon the ship provided you have a | |
propellant plant on Mars or moon the | |
ship can easily get a single-stage from | |
the surface of the Moon all the way to | |
to surface of Earth without a booster so | |
it shows you how to eat like Earth has a | |
deep gravity well in a thick atmosphere | |
so but but definitely cannot I mean well | |
I mean if we if we really went crazy | |
lights you could probably do | |
single-stage-to-orbit non-reusable with | |
the ship but that would be pointless | |
Ilana I just wanted to ask NASA | |
Administrator Jim bridenstine had a | |
tweet last night about this presentation | |
concerned obf sigh about enthusiasm for | |
SpaceX as various programs I'm just | |
curious if you have any comment of | |
response to that yeah I mean we have for | |
sure that from a SpaceX resource | |
standpoint our resources are | |
overwhelmingly on Falcon and dragon that | |
is very clear but it was really quite a | |
small percentage of SpaceX that did this | |
starship you know less than 5% of the | |
company basically | |
the like the really hard part that | |
requires a lot of resources is | |
optimizing something past the initial | |
prototype phase and bringing it into | |
volume production so yeah to be clear | |
like the best majority of our resources | |
are on dragon or Falcon especially crew | |
dragon thank you | |
hey Ilana Chris Gephardt with NASA Space | |
Flight how do you guys envision keeping | |
the methane and oxygen inside the tanks | |
from boiling off in any significant | |
quantity during a multi-month | |
interplanetary trip to Mars and on a | |
more earth grounded question what's your | |
contamination mitigation strategy since | |
these things are being built outside and | |
the elements is not not in a factory | |
well these are pretty far in the | |
distance questions these questions are | |
relevant but in the end of future years | |
the keeping the the landing propellants | |
cold on the way to Mars is a lot easier | |
than it may seem because you can | |
essentially vacuum just like you'd keep | |
cryogenic propellants stored on earth | |
for long periods of time you vacuum | |
jacketed we would essentially have | |
header tanks that are bigger than these | |
header tanks and and invent them to to | |
vacuum so you just basically have a tank | |
inside a tank with multi-layer | |
insulation and and this way you can keep | |
things cryogenic for months no problem | |
it requires very little energy to you | |
don't even really need to worry about | |
boil off you could you could apply some | |
energy to cryo cool it but you don't | |
really need too tight you to have a tiny | |
amount of boil off you know in it in in | |
vacuum things are things are kind of | |
weird they're not like on earth because | |
you have no convective cooling really in | |
surgery so you you actually have the Sun | |
side of your rocket is very hot and then | |
the not Sun side of your rocket is at 3 | |
degrees Kelvin so it's super cold so | |
you're just like keep your cold stuff on | |
the cold side and the hot stuff on the | |
hot side and it's pretty this is not a | |
problem to manage | |
you know the for the long-term stuff for | |
sort of what's called contamination Mars | |
you know they I think this this concern | |
first of all we will do everything we | |
can to mitigate it obviously and but at | |
the end of the day if you're going to | |
send people to Mars that's a pretty big | |
contaminant I know but I really don't | |
think that some earth-based bacterium is | |
gonna be able to migrate much through | |
Mars | |
the thing that makes Mars very difficult | |
is that it is both cold and has high | |
ultraviolet so if it was either cold or | |
ultraviolet you could evolve to deal | |
with it but the the cold slows down | |
metabolic processes and the and then | |
ultraviolet ray to the stretch of the | |
DNA so you colder shredded this is very | |
difficult for things to exist on the | |
surface of Mars and that's why we have | |
not found any traces of life on the | |
surface of Mars to date if there is any | |
life it'll be very deep underground and | |
I think very resilient yeah cool thank | |
you | |
it's also worth noting that over time | |
there have been meteors that they've | |
been chunks of Earth that have been | |
chipped off by meteors and chunks of | |
Mars have been chipped off from Mars and | |
Earth and Mars have actually exchanged | |
material many times over the last | |
several hundred million years | |
hey long it's Chris Davenport from the | |
Washington Post but I'm curious about | |
your vision for this area I mean when | |
you drive by and you see this it's | |
surreal | |
it's real yeah and but I know your | |
vision isn't maybe like a government | |
launch site like a Cape Canaveral but | |
what does this look like a private | |
operational commercial space board | |
yeah I mean it's it's you know I mean it | |
will definitely get fancier than it | |
currently is you know because the the | |
the reason it's not fancier is it's just | |
because it would have taken too long to | |
build the buildings so since it was | |
gonna take so long to build the | |
buildings we just built it outside yeah | |
this is like my new thing is a | |
management by rhyming if the schedules | |
long it's wrong and if it's tightest | |
right yeah it works I mean sr-71 | |
you know fastest plane in history ever | |
you know it's also coolest plane ever | |
you know it had no anti-missile defenses | |
except one accelerates yeah zero they | |
try to shoot it down many times zero | |
successes what you think this area will | |
look like it's a ten years when you are | |
flying cruise oh my think will be like a | |
lot left more buildings and a lot more | |
stuff like way way more stuff than is | |
currently here as you can tell the wind | |
is really quite vigorous the like one of | |
the things that I think would be quite | |
important to have locally is propellant | |
production so trucking massive you know | |
thousands of tons of liquid oxygen to | |
the site it doesn't make a ton of sense | |
we should really produce the ox that the | |
liquid oxygen here and by the way that | |
it's we have gaseous oxygen in the | |
atmosphere so basically just need | |
electricity and oh I've word to mention | |
one of the things our time is the | |
propellant production on Mars will be | |
completely renewable because we will use | |
solar panels pull the co2 out of the | |
atmosphere Mars is a primarily co2 | |
atmosphere get the h2o the water from | |
the ice Mars has a | |
the amount of ice you combine h2o and | |
co2 and you get ch4 and O 2 this is a | |
very long understood process of running | |
over ruthenium catalysts this is a | |
Sabatier process to create a ch4 no.2 | |
out of co2 and h2o and that same system | |
that we developed for Mars will | |
long-term be used on earth so long-term | |
this is like a long term we will produce | |
the propellants for the rockets using | |
solar power and pull the co2 from | |
Earth's atmosphere use water combine | |
that into it to create ch4 and o2 on | |
earth and so the long-term outcome will | |
be quite sustainable and renewable for | |
Earth and Mars Geoff vows of space news | |
you spent a lot of time this summer | |
working with the FAA getting approval to | |
do a single star hopper fly at 150 | |
metres now you're talking about flying a | |
much bigger vehicle to much higher | |
altitudes and ultimately flying to orbit | |
where are you within the FAA in terms of | |
getting approval for that and will those | |
flight Opportunities be able to coexist | |
with say the local residents around here | |
yeah I mean I've seen the FAA | |
administrator for space has been | |
excellent to work with very | |
forward-leaning really I would just like | |
to say thanks to the FAA for their | |
support | |
actually I mean really this you know | |
minimal delay is related to regulatory | |
activity and they've been really very | |
reasonable and so you know the sports | |
very much appreciated so I think the FAA | |
asks you know good questions and what | |
you want to make sure things are safe as | |
do we | |
and so we're gonna make sure that this | |
the risk to the public is extremely you | |
know vanishingly small | |
there was nothing basically so yeah it's | |
the same sort of thing that we've had to | |
deal with on Falcon 9 | |
dragon and has gone very well you know | |
for the 17 years that SpaceX has been | |
around so so you know I think I feel | |
pretty optimistic about things I don't I | |
don't see any fundamental obstacles we | |
are working with the the residents of | |
Boca Chica Village because we think over | |
time it's going to be quite disruptive | |
to their tune to living in Boca Chica | |
Village because it | |
needing to get cleared for safety a lot | |
of times so I'd say probably not very | |
you know there would be just not very | |
comforting to the book chica village I | |
mean I think the actual but dangerous to | |
folks here villages is low but it's not | |
it's not tiny | |
so therefore when we want super tiny | |
risk so yeah probably have a time rather | |
to buy out the villages and we've made | |
an offer to that effect | |
yeah thank you via LAN it's a Tariq | |
Malik from space calm and I was curious | |
with the design update here if a hundred | |
person crew signs for base flights is | |
still kind of the target now and how | |
will the life support could you talk | |
about that is the wind is like howling | |
in my ear unfortunately sure yes with | |
the design update here I'm curious if | |
the 100 person crew size target is still | |
the main target for base crew flights | |
and how the life support system for that | |
is being developed for both the initial | |
test flights and then maybe for mr. | |
Mia's hours flight 2 and upcoming years | |
thank you | |
yeah I think you it's really I think you | |
could still do a hundred people like the | |
the the pressurized volume on the | |
starship is around a thousand cubic | |
meters so if you had a hundred people | |
you'd have ten cubic meters per person | |
which is you know and especially in like | |
a zero-g situation that's actually quite | |
a lot of room unlike a 1g situation you | |
you only get to use one surface really | |
live on one surface in a 1g situation | |
but in this you know zero | |
situation you can live on six surfaces | |
you know you can like all six sides of a | |
cube so it things away roomier then they | |
may seem and by the way a thousand cubic | |
meters I think is close to what the | |
Space Station pressurized volume is so | |
it's you know starship is like basically | |
like the launching space station | |
pressurized volume on every flight this | |
is quite a lot we can make it bigger if | |
it as neat as you yeah high-heeled on | |
Stephen Clark from a spaceflight now | |
thanks for taking our questions we see | |
the starship prototype here mark one you | |
talked a little bit about how you're | |
gonna build the super-heavy vehicle can | |
you update us a little bit more detail | |
about how that development is going | |
where exactly it'll be built and when we | |
might see it on the on a test stand or | |
on a pad sure yeah a good question so | |
the priority is to build at least two | |
starships at each site at Boka at the | |
ganda cape and then start building the | |
booster so we'll complete you know Mach | |
one through four before doing Mach one | |
of the booster and then we'll do you | |
know Mach one and walk two of the | |
boosters at the cape and and voco look | |
their main constraints on on launching | |
the booster is is its engines because | |
obviously booster has a lot of engines | |
so spooling up the raptor production | |
rate is extremely important to vital | |
obviously essential to completing the | |
booster doing the the tanks and the legs | |
and say the grid fins | |
bettors not a constraint like that we | |
can get done fast but we need i think we | |
would want to have at least probably | |
twenty four engines but i think really | |
at least thirty one engines | |
to launch so you add that up you've got | |
a lot of engines there you know we need | |
to put four four four four starships | |
need to well these these have just have | |
three Brock wanted to just have three | |
three Raptor engines Mach three and four | |
will have six so yeah this looks like a | |
lot of engines basically including | |
development engines from now through | |
through orbit we're probably done | |
hundreds rapture engines and our | |
production race right now is maybe one | |
every sort of eight to ten days | |
and but it should be one every couple of | |
days in a few months and then out to our | |
target is to get to a rapture engine | |
every day by q1 next year or sooner and | |
if I may when will we see people flying | |
on this vehicle into space well I think | |
we could potentially see people flying | |
next year you know if we if we get to | |
orbit in about six months then and we | |
have a remember this is designed to be a | |
reusable rocket so a reasonable booster | |
reusable ship so we can do many flights | |
to prove out the reliability very | |
quickly so whereas with an expendable | |
vehicle you have to build if you want to | |
do ten flights let's say to prove out | |
the viability of an expendable vehicle | |
your need to build and destroy ten | |
vehicles whereas we can do ten flights | |
you know it within basically a ten days | |
so when I say rapid reusability I mean | |
you know what you you can fly it's like | |
you can fly the boosts or | |
20 times a day you fly the ship three or | |
four times a day that's what I mean by | |
reusability and the only reason to ship | |
it takes more time than that is more | |
time than the booster is that you need a | |
couple of you need you know three or | |
four orbits to synchronize for the ship | |
so that it is over you know like don't | |
getting those complicated thing of | |
orbital dynamics and the rotation of the | |
earth relative to satellite but as | |
anyone who's like knows the space you | |
know the track of a satellite unless | |
it's an equatorial satellite is it's a | |
sinusoidal track on the earth unless | |
it's equatorial or sun-synchronous so so | |
it you know launching sort of due east | |
you have to kind of wait for the orbits | |
just the the ground paths to sync up | |
with the launch light and that's the | |
only reason it really takes like you | |
know maybe six hours or something like | |
that to sync up and land back at Boca or | |
the Cape you know one of the really | |
interesting interesting things to | |
contemplate is the total mass to orbit | |
capability of a large reusable system | |
where you have a significant fleet in | |
operation the if you've got something | |
like Sasha where you've got maybe 150 | |
tons capable to orbit and the ship can | |
fly' is capable of say theoretically | |
flying four times a day but you know | |
they quote it like 75 percent uptime so | |
theoretical three times a day three or | |
sixty-five days a year so that's like | |
about a thousand flights a year for the | |
ship the booster can do a lot more than | |
that this is obviously max theoretical | |
and you but you know 150 tons that | |
service 150 thousand tons to open per | |
year per ship and if you've got say ten | |
ships you would have a hundred and your | |
one and a half million tons to orbit per | |
year 20 ships you've got three million | |
tons over two year I think the total | |
rest of world capacity if you take all | |
rockets on earth including Falcon the | |
total capacity to orbit I think is | |
around two to three hundred tons | |
currently total Earth capacity to orbit | |
is about two to three hundred tons if | |
all rockets launched at max rate so | |
we're talking about something that is | |
with with the fleet of starships a | |
thousand times more than all earth | |
capacity combined all all other rockets | |
combined would be 0.1% including ours | |
but you kind of need that if you're | |
gonna build a city on Mars so it's got | |
to be done | |
Elon highest bill Harwood with CBS News | |
I just wanted to follow up on a an | |
earlier question about life support | |
systems because that's not trivial and | |
obviously you're you're building a very | |
sophisticated piece of hardware are you | |
thinking about closed-loop regenerative | |
systems are you thinking about | |
developing these in-house or you looking | |
at designs that already exist on Space | |
Station for example and what are you | |
shooting for initially I know you're not | |
going to be launching a hundred people | |
on your first flight but what sort of a | |
crew complement can we expect on those | |
initial test flights and what how | |
sophisticated does that life-support | |
system need to be Thanks | |
yeah I think for sure you'd want to have | |
a regenerative life support system so | |
that just means you're recycling | |
everything you know that's for sure | |
important if you're on a several months | |
journey to Mars and then you you know on | |
the surface for 18 months | |
regenerative is a kind of a necessity so | |
III don't think it's actually super hard | |
to do that relative to the spacecraft | |
itself the life-support system is pretty | |
straightforward | |
yeah you're going to take - you know - | |
yeah it's pretty straightforward you | |
take out the water vapor and the co2 you | |
can read that back - OH - it's not not | |
super hard the the early flights of | |
starship would not have any people on | |
board it would just be in automatic mode | |
it would only be later flights that | |
would have people on board so I think | |
like the foot even the first place | |
tomorrow's we were to attend at least a | |
couple of ships have them just land | |
automatically before sending people yeah | |
take about two more questions | |
hyeyeon Erik burger with ARS technica I | |
would just argue the x-15 was the | |
coolest plane of all time and my | |
question I guess is you know we're not | |
really used to seeing Hardware build in | |
less than a year can you talk about the | |
timeline for this vehicle like when you | |
started fabricating it and how you went | |
so quickly on it thank you | |
yeah actually I'm not sure I think I cap | |
until October last year we were pursuing | |
a completely different design so it was | |
really I switched the design to steel I | |
think yeah proxy up maybe October last | |
year and there's like okay so what's the | |
fastest we can build a steel you know | |
ship in Texas | |
and there we got I think your bulletin | |
built it in about four months or | |
something maybe five months and then | |
this the ship I think we I'm not sure | |
exactly when we started loading it | |
perfect yeah but maybe about four months | |
ago that we started building the ship | |
maybe five so it's been four or five | |
months since we started building this | |
ship from nothing I think yeah something | |
like that and how did you go so fast | |
well I guess I have this mantra you | |
called if the schedules long it's wrong | |
if it's tight it's right yeah and just | |
basically just go recursive improvement | |
on schedule and say with feedback loop | |
did this make it go faster okay if it | |
didn't we need to fix it if the design | |
if the design is takes a long time to | |
build it to the wrong design this is the | |
fundamental thing over and over it's | |
like the tendency is to complicate | |
things and I have another thing which is | |
like the best part is no part the best | |
process is no process it weighs nothing | |
costs nothing can't go wrong so as | |
obvious as that sounds the best the best | |
part is no part like the my the the | |
thing I'm most impressed with in when I | |
have the design meetings at SpaceX is | |
what did you undesigned undesigning is | |
the best thing just delete it that's the | |
best thing yeah | |
hey Ilan Robin here from supercluster | |
calm my question is about potential fun | |
synergy between spacex and your other | |
projects one is there a concept for a | |
tesla Mars rover - are you gonna be | |
launching yeah is there a concept | |
already uh well actually yeah the | |
Tesla's will work on Mars you know the | |
if you can either there's a little you | |
can just drive them pretty much because | |
electric cars don't need oxygen they | |
don't need air so you can just drive | |
them around no problem | |
are you gonna bring a boring machine to | |
the Moon or Mars I think that would be a | |
good good idea me too | |
yeah because you could just like make | |
like as much room as you want | |
underground and and you protect it from | |
radiation and everything and I could | |
probably use the materials for building | |
and you need to find ice and dirt anyway | |
so why not yeah totally | |
Thanks Elon in it oh I don't believe you | |
about the aliens | |
I hope I hope I'm wrong I mean I hope | |
they're like well if they are how you | |
here I'm hope they're nice you know they | |
haven't killed us yet so it must be not | |
that bad all right any other questions | |
hi Ellen Martin Avenue from the SpaceX | |
subreddit we crowd sourced a few | |
questions it sounds like I only have | |
time for one but oh well I was wondering | |
could you elaborate on the number of | |
engines that will be used for the booze | |
back and entry burns on starship and | |
what the dry landing weight of the | |
super-heavy will be oh yeah so starship | |
wouldn't really if we're poor | |
there's the 20-kilometer thing which you | |
know it's mostly just gonna have three | |
engines you know but you only really | |
needs like these two of them to work at | |
any given point in time but but the ship | |
when it's an orbital operation will will | |
only need a tiny bit of impulse to | |
deorbit like you only is to read like a | |
very tight like less than 5% of the mass | |
of the vehicles needed to do but so you | |
just like really puff one of the engines | |
and the main thing is like trying to get | |
the control like how do you shut off the | |
thrust precisely it really precisely so | |
that you don't over or undershoot | |
your target and and then so yeah for the | |
booster the booster has seven engines | |
that gimbal and then the rest whether | |
it's a total of 31 or 37 are fixed the | |
the fixed engines would not be used for | |
boost back so the only the center 7 | |
would be used for for boost back and | |
then I really want to try to avoid an | |
entry burn if at all possible that would | |
because I acted that that would now you | |
have to have a high the system has to be | |
capable of a very high Q entry in order | |
to avoid an entry burn but I think we | |
might be able to make the booster buff | |
enough that it you know it doesn't need | |
an entry burn hopefully so then it just | |
needs a landing burner yeah | |
all right great thanks everyone thanks | |
for coming after you tried it |
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