gistfile1.txt

![](http://i.minus.com/iksxZVrsUwA1I.jpeg)

[Me](http://pentangle.net): 

> About one star is born each year in our galaxy. The number of stars in the galaxy is approximately constant. So about one star dies each year in the Milky Way.

> There are about 10 billion stars in the galaxy. Therefore a random star has a 1 in 10 billion chance of dying each year.

> You can't see individual stars outside or galaxy with the naked eye. The galaxy is about 100 000 light years across. So let's say the most distant star you can observe with the naked eye is 100 000 light years away. It's probably more like 1000 ly though.

> So putting it all together: the chance a random star has died since the light you are now observing left it is, at most, 1 in 100 000, probably more like 1 in 10 million.

Someone who is not an idiot:

> You don't wish on stars. You wish on shooting stars. The probability a shooting star is now dead is 1 in 1.