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Fit a univariate GEV distribution in stan
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/* | |
Fit a GEV distribution in stan | |
Code is largely based on previous code by | |
Cameron Bracken: http://bechtel.colorado.edu/~bracken/tutorials/stan/ | |
and Yenan Wu: http://discourse.mc-stan.org/t/troubles-in-rejecting-initial-value/1827 | |
*/ | |
functions{ | |
real gev_lpdf(vector y, real mu, real sigma, real xi) { | |
vector[rows(y)] z; | |
vector[rows(y)] lp; | |
int N; | |
N = rows(y); | |
for(n in 1:N){ | |
z[n] = 1 + (y[n] - mu) * xi / sigma; | |
lp[n] = (1 + (1 / xi)) * log(z[n]) + pow(z[n], -1/xi); | |
} | |
return -sum(lp) - N * log(sigma); | |
} | |
} | |
data { | |
int<lower=0> N; | |
vector[N] y; | |
} | |
transformed data { | |
real min_y; | |
real max_y; | |
real sd_y; | |
min_y = min(y); | |
max_y = max(y); | |
sd_y = sd(y); | |
} | |
parameters { | |
real<lower=-0.5,upper=0.5> xi; | |
real<lower=0> sigma; | |
// location has upper/lower bounds depending on the value of xi | |
real<lower=if_else( xi > 0, min_y, negative_infinity()), | |
upper=if_else( xi > 0, positive_infinity(), max_y )> mu; | |
} | |
model { | |
// Priors -- these can be modified depending on your context | |
real xi_plus_half; | |
xi_plus_half = xi + 0.5; | |
xi_plus_half ~ beta(1, 1); | |
sigma ~ normal(sd_y, 10); | |
mu ~ normal(0, 25); | |
// Data Model | |
y ~ gev(mu, sigma, xi); | |
} |
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