Ocean Heating 2023 to 2023

ocean_heat_2023_2024.fsx

//open FSharp.Data.UnitSystems.SI

[<Measure>]
type g

[<Measure>]
type kg

[<Measure>]
type m

[<Measure>]
type km

[<Measure>]
type cm

[<Measure>]
type Celsius

[<Measure>]
type Fahrenheit

// Volume, liters.
[<Measure>]
type L

// Energy, Joules.
[<Measure>]
type J

[<Measure>]
type MJ

[<Measure>]
type kgCO2e // CO2 equivalent (kilograms)




module Conv =
    // Conversion factor from cubic kilometers to liters:
    let km3_to_liter = 1.0e15<L / km^3>

    // Define a function to convert meters to kilometers
    let meters_to_km = 0.001<km / m>

    // On average, a mature tree is estimated to absorb around 22 kg of CO2 per year.
    let toTreeEquiv = 1. / 22.<kgCO2e>



// Define constants
let ocean_thermal_capacity = 4.18<J / (g * Celsius)> // Specific heat capacity of water
let heat_of_an_atomic_bomb = 4.18e15<J> // Energy released by one kiloton atomic bomb
let ocean_volume_estimate = 1.386e9<km^3> // Volume of the oceans in cubic kilometers

let ocean_volume_liters = ocean_volume_estimate * Conv.km3_to_liter

// let C2F (temp: float<Celsius>) =
//     9.0<Fahrenheit> / 5.0<Celsius> * temp + 32.0<Fahrenheit>

// let F2C (temp: float<Fahrenheit>) =
//     5.0<Celsius> / 9.0<Fahrenheit> * (temp - 32.0<Fahrenheit>)

let dtC2F (dtC: float<Celsius>) : float<Fahrenheit> = dtC * 9.0<Fahrenheit> / 5.0<Celsius> // Multiply by 9/5 and convert units

let dtF2C (dtF: float<Fahrenheit>) : float<Celsius> = dtF * 5.0<Celsius> / 9.0<Fahrenheit>

// Ocean temperature in Celsius in 2024
// let ocean_temperature_F = 69.9<Fahrenheit>
// let ocean_temperature_C = F2C ocean_temperature_F

// Estimate ocean mass
let ocean_density = 1.025<kg / L> // Average density of seawater
let ocean_mass_estimate: float<kg> = ocean_volume_liters * ocean_density


// Calculate radius of the Earth (assuming spherical approximation)
let earth_radius = 6371.0<km> // Average radius of Earth

// Calculate radius of the ocean sphere (assuming same average radius)
let ocean_sphere_radius = earth_radius

// Calculate volume of the entire ocean sphere
let ocean_sphere_volume: float<km^3> =
    4.0 / 3.0
    * System.Math.PI
    * ocean_sphere_radius
    * ocean_sphere_radius
    * ocean_sphere_radius

// Calculate volume of a concentric sphere with radius reduced by 2 meters
let smaller_sphere_radius = ocean_sphere_radius - 2.0<m> * Conv.meters_to_km // Convert depth to meters

let smaller_sphere_volume: float<km^3> =
    4.0 / 3.0
    * System.Math.PI
    * smaller_sphere_radius
    * smaller_sphere_radius
    * smaller_sphere_radius

// Calculate the volume of the 2-meter
// surface layer (difference of spheres)
let top_2m_volume: float<km^3> = ocean_sphere_volume - smaller_sphere_volume

// Convert volume to liters for density calculation
let top_2m_volume_liters: float<L> = top_2m_volume * Conv.km3_to_liter

// Calculate density * volume in kg/km^3
let top_2m_density_volume: float<kg / km^3> =
    ocean_density * top_2m_volume_liters / top_2m_volume // Cancel out km^3

// Calculate mass of top 2 meters in kg
let ocean_2m_surface_mass_estimate: float<kg> =
    top_2m_density_volume * top_2m_volume


// Delta temperature of the top 2 meters of
//ocean surface due to human-induced climate change
let delta_t_ocean_2m_surface_temperature_F = 1.0<Fahrenheit>

let delta_t_ocean_2m_surface_temperature_C =
    delta_t_ocean_2m_surface_temperature_F |> dtF2C


// Compute the heat equivalent to raise the temperature
// of the top 2 meters of ocean surface by 1 degree Farenheit
// https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/climate/2024-hottest-january-data.html
let heat_equivalent_2m_dt: float<J> =
    ocean_2m_surface_mass_estimate // kg
    * 1000.0<g / kg> // Conversion factor (grams per kilogram)
    * ocean_thermal_capacity // J / (g * Celsius)
    * delta_t_ocean_2m_surface_temperature_C // Celsius

// Compute the number of atomic bombs needed to produce the same amount of heat
let heat_in_atomic_bombs = heat_equivalent_2m_dt / heat_of_an_atomic_bomb

let jtoCo2 (joules: float<J>) : float<kgCO2e> =
    // Average emission factor for all fossil fuels (kg CO2e / MJ)
    let avg_emission_factor: float<kgCO2e / MJ> = 0.225<kgCO2e / MJ>

    // Convert joules to megajoules
    let mj = joules / 1.0e6<J / MJ>

    // Calculate CO2 equivalent
    mj * avg_emission_factor

let heatInCo2e = heat_equivalent_2m_dt |> jtoCo2

let trees = heatInCo2e * Conv.toTreeEquiv

let canadianWildFire2023TreesBurned = 460000000.

let nrOfCanadian2023Wildfires = trees / canadianWildFire2023TreesBurned

let million = 1000000000.


$"""
The number of atomic bombs 
needed to heat the ocean global 2m surface temperature
by %.4f{delta_t_ocean_2m_surface_temperature_C} Celsius
is {(int64) (heatInCo2e / million)} million kg CO2 equivalent 
or {(int64) (trees / million)} million trees (CO2 absorbed in 1 year)
or {(int) nrOfCanadian2023Wildfires} canadian 2023 wildfires equivalent
or {(int) heat_in_atomic_bombs} atomic bombs from 2023 to 2024!!!
"""
|> printfn "%s"