Fed Balance Sheet QT

gistfile1.txt

fed_assets_on_bs <- 
"WALCL" %>% 
  tq_get(get = "economic.data") %>% 
  summarise_by_time(
    .date_var = date,
    .by = "months",
    monthly_assets = mean(price)
  )


fed_assets_on_bs %>% 
  future_frame(
    .date_var = date,
    .length_out = 31,
    .bind_data = T
  ) %>% 
  mutate(monthly_assets = monthly_assets * 1000000) %>% 
  fill(monthly_assets, .direction = "down") %>% 
  mutate(
    months_taper = (interval(date, today()) %/% months(1) * -1) + 1,
    future_monthly_assets = 
           case_when(
             date >= "2022-06-01" & date <= "2022-08-01" ~ 
               monthly_assets - (47500000000 * months_taper),
             date > "2022-08-01" ~ monthly_assets - (95000000000 * months_taper),
             T ~ monthly_assets),
    taper = date > "2022-06-01"
  ) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = date, y = future_monthly_assets, color = taper, linetype = taper)) +
  geom_line(show.legend = F) +
  geom_text_repel(aes(label = dollar(future_monthly_assets,
                               scale = 1/1000000000000,
                                            suffix = "T")), 
            data = . %>% filter(future_monthly_assets == max(future_monthly_assets)),
            show.legend = F,
            direction = "y",
            nudge_y = 500000000) +
   geom_text_repel(aes(label = dollar(future_monthly_assets,
                               scale = 1/1000000000000,
                                            suffix = "T")), 
            data = . %>% filter(date == max(date)),
            show.legend = F,
            direction = "y",
            nudge_y = -500000000) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = dollar_format(scale = 1/1000000000000,
                                            suffix = "T"),
                     breaks = pretty_breaks(10),
                     limits = c(2000000000000, 10000000000000)) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "1 year", 
               date_labels = "%Y") +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = .5)) +
  labs(x = "", y = "", title = "Fed Balance Sheet According to Planned QT",
       caption = "Source: Fred Data and Author Calcs based on FOMC guidance")