gpt-oss-120b.md

Realistic GPU Requirements: 1K, 5K, 10K Active Users

Step 1: H100 Concurrent Request Capacity

Single H100 Physical Limits:

• Memory constraint: 80GB VRAM total
• Model footprint: ~62GB (MXFP4 quantized GPT-OSS-120B)
• System overhead: ~3GB
• Available for KV cache: ~15GB

KV Cache Requirements (with GQA optimization):

• 4K context: ~1.2GB per request → 12 concurrent requests
• 8K context: ~2.4GB per request → 6 concurrent requests
• 16K context: ~4.8GB per request → 3 concurrent requests
• 32K context: ~9.6GB per request → 1-2 concurrent requests

Step 2: Enterprise User Behavior Analysis

Realistic Interaction Cycle:

Query → Generation → Reading → Thinking → Next Query
  ↓         ↓           ↓          ↓         ↓
Send     5-12 sec    15-45 sec  60-180 sec  Repeat

Detailed Timing Breakdown:

• Request processing: 5-12 seconds (GPU utilization time)
• User reading: 15-45 seconds (response consumption)
• User thinking: 60-180 seconds (formulating next query)
• Total cycle time: 80-237 seconds (average: ~150 seconds)

GPU Utilization Rate:

• Active GPU time: 8 seconds average
• Total cycle time: 150 seconds average
• Utilization per user: 8/150 = 5.3% per user

Step 3: Peak Usage Pattern Analysis

Enterprise Usage Distribution (Starting from Active Users):

• Active user base: 100% (baseline)
• Peak 4-hour window: 45-60% of active users online
• Peak simultaneous usage: 20-30% of peak window users
• Concurrent query rate: 12-18% of simultaneous users

Simultaneous Peak Calculations:

Active Users	Peak Window Online	Peak Simultaneous	Concurrent Queries
1,000	450-600	90-180	11-32 queries
5,000	2,250-3,000	450-900	54-162 queries
10,000	4,500-6,000	900-1,800	108-324 queries

Step 4: Base GPU Requirements

Standard Context (8K) Scenario:

Active Users	Concurrent Queries	H100 Capacity	Base GPUs Needed
1,000	11-32	6 requests	2-6 GPUs
5,000	54-162	6 requests	9-27 GPUs
10,000	108-324	6 requests	18-54 GPUs

Extended Context (32K) Scenario:

Active Users	Concurrent Queries	H100 Capacity	Base GPUs Needed
1,000	11-32	1.5 requests	7-21 GPUs
5,000	54-162	1.5 requests	36-108 GPUs
10,000	108-324	1.5 requests	72-216 GPUs

Step 5: Enterprise Reliability Multipliers

Production Environment Requirements:

• Failover redundancy: 1.5x (50% backup capacity)
• Geographic distribution: 1.3x (multi-region latency optimization)
• Traffic burst handling: 1.4x (unexpected load spikes)
• Maintenance windows: 1.1x (rolling updates)
• Performance buffer: 1.2x (load balancing inefficiencies)

Total Enterprise Multiplier: 1.5 × 1.3 × 1.4 × 1.1 × 1.2 = 3.4x

Step 6: Production Deployment Requirements

Standard Enterprise Deployment (8K Context)

Active Users	Base GPUs	Production GPUs	Monthly Cost*
1,000	2-6	7-20	$38K-$108K
5,000	9-27	31-92	$167K-$497K
10,000	18-54	61-184	$330K-$993K

Knowledge-Intensive Deployment (32K Context)

Active Users	Base GPUs	Production GPUs	Monthly Cost*
1,000	7-21	24-71	$130K-$383K
5,000	36-108	122-367	$659K-$1.98M
10,000	72-216	245-735	$1.32M-$3.97M

*Based on $5.40/hour per H100 (enterprise cloud pricing)

Step 7: Workload-Specific Scenarios

Light Usage Pattern (Customer Support)

• Query frequency: 3-5 queries/user/day
• Concurrent rate: 8-12% of active users
• Context needs: 4K-8K tokens

Medium Usage Pattern (Knowledge Work)

• Query frequency: 8-15 queries/user/day
• Concurrent rate: 15-20% of active users
• Context needs: 8K-16K tokens

Heavy Usage Pattern (Development/Research)

• Query frequency: 20-40 queries/user/day
• Concurrent rate: 25-35% of active users
• Context needs: 16K-32K tokens

Step 8: Realistic Deployment Scenarios

Conservative Enterprise (1K Active Users)

Use Case: Internal productivity tool, light-medium usage

• Context: 8K tokens
• Usage pattern: Medium (15% concurrent rate)
• Deployment: 7-20 H100 GPUs
• Annual Cost: $456K-$1.30M

Growth Enterprise (5K Active Users)

Use Case: Customer-facing application, medium usage

• Context: 8K-16K tokens
• Usage pattern: Medium-Heavy (20% concurrent rate)
• Deployment: 31-180 H100 GPUs
• Architecture: Multi-region deployment
• Annual Cost: $2.00M-$11.6M

Large Enterprise (10K Active Users)

Use Case: Mission-critical platform, heavy usage

• Context: 16K-32K tokens
• Usage pattern: Heavy (25-30% concurrent rate)
• Deployment: 184-735 H100 GPUs
• Architecture: Global deployment, maximum reliability
• Annual Cost: $11.9M-$47.6M

Step 9: Optimization Impact Analysis

Memory Optimization Stack Effects:

• Grouped Query Attention (GQA): Reduces GPU requirements by 60-75%
• PagedAttention: Increases effective capacity by 40-60%
• Dynamic batching: Improves throughput by 150-250%
• INT8 quantization: Additional 30-40% memory savings

Optimized Requirements (with full optimization stack):

Active Users	Context	Optimized GPUs	Cost Reduction
1,000	8K	3-8 GPUs	70-80%
5,000	8K	12-37 GPUs	65-75%
10,000	8K	24-74 GPUs	60-70%
10,000	32K	98-294 GPUs	60-70%

Final Recommendation Matrix

Deployment Type	1K Active	5K Active	10K Active
Minimal Viable (4K-8K)	3-8 GPUs	12-37 GPUs	24-74 GPUs
Standard Enterprise (8K-16K)	7-35 GPUs	31-180 GPUs	61-350 GPUs
Premium/Global (16K-32K)	24-71 GPUs	122-550 GPUs	245-735 GPUs

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Realistic Infrastructure Planning: 1K, 5K, 10K Peak Concurrent Users

Step 1: Peak Concurrent User Infrastructure Requirements

Target Peak Concurrent Loads:

• 1,000 peak concurrent users
• 5,000 peak concurrent users
• 10,000 peak concurrent users

H100 Capacity per Context Length:

• 4K context: 12 concurrent requests per H100
• 8K context: 6 concurrent requests per H100
• 16K context: 3 concurrent requests per H100
• 32K context: 1.5 concurrent requests per H100

Step 2: Base GPU Requirements for Peak Load

Infrastructure Needed for Peak Concurrent Users:

Peak Concurrent	8K Context	16K Context	32K Context
1,000 users	167 H100s	334 H100s	667 H100s
5,000 users	834 H100s	1,667 H100s	3,334 H100s
10,000 users	1,667 H100s	3,334 H100s	6,667 H100s

Step 3: Enterprise Production Multipliers

Production Environment Requirements:

• Failover redundancy: 1.5x (geographic backup)
• Traffic burst handling: 1.4x (demand spikes beyond peak)
• Maintenance windows: 1.2x (rolling updates)
• Performance buffer: 1.3x (load balancing overhead)

Total Enterprise Multiplier: 1.5 × 1.4 × 1.2 × 1.3 = 3.3x

Step 4: Production Deployment Infrastructure

Enterprise-Ready Infrastructure Requirements:

Peak Concurrent	8K Context	16K Context	32K Context
1,000 users	551 H100s	1,102 H100s	2,201 H100s
5,000 users	2,752 H100s	5,501 H100s	11,002 H100s
10,000 users	5,501 H100s	11,002 H100s	22,001 H100s

Step 5: Reverse Calculation - Total Active User Capacity

Enterprise Usage Patterns (Reverse Analysis):

• Peak concurrent rate: 12-18% of simultaneous users
• Peak simultaneous rate: 20-30% of peak window users
• Peak window rate: 45-60% of active users online

Calculation Formula:

Active Users = Peak Concurrent ÷ (0.18 × 0.30 × 0.60)
Active Users = Peak Concurrent ÷ 0.032
Active Users = Peak Concurrent × 31.25

Conservative Calculation (Lower Multiplier):

Active Users = Peak Concurrent ÷ (0.12 × 0.20 × 0.45)
Active Users = Peak Concurrent ÷ 0.011
Active Users = Peak Concurrent × 91

Step 6: Active User Capacity Analysis

Total Active Users Supported by Infrastructure:

Peak Concurrent	Conservative Estimate	Aggressive Estimate	Realistic Range
1,000 users	91,000 active users	31,250 active users	30K-90K active
5,000 users	455,000 active users	156,250 active users	150K-450K active
10,000 users	910,000 active users	312,500 active users	300K-900K active

Step 7: Infrastructure Investment Scenarios

Scenario A: Support 1K Peak Concurrent Users

Standard Deployment (8K Context):

• Production GPUs: 551 H100s
• Monthly Cost: $2.98M
• Active User Capacity: 30,000-90,000 users
• Cost per Active User: $33-$99/month

Knowledge-Intensive (32K Context):

• Production GPUs: 2,201 H100s
• Monthly Cost: $11.9M
• Active User Capacity: 30,000-90,000 users
• Cost per Active User: $132-$396/month

Scenario B: Support 5K Peak Concurrent Users

Standard Deployment (8K Context):

• Production GPUs: 2,752 H100s
• Monthly Cost: $14.9M
• Active User Capacity: 150,000-450,000 users
• Cost per Active User: $33-$99/month

Knowledge-Intensive (32K Context):

• Production GPUs: 11,002 H100s
• Monthly Cost: $59.4M
• Active User Capacity: 150,000-450,000 users
• Cost per Active User: $132-$396/month

Scenario C: Support 10K Peak Concurrent Users

Standard Deployment (8K Context):

• Production GPUs: 5,501 H100s
• Monthly Cost: $29.7M
• Active User Capacity: 300,000-900,000 users
• Cost per Active User: $33-$99/month

Knowledge-Intensive (32K Context):

• Production GPUs: 22,001 H100s
• Monthly Cost: $119M
• Active User Capacity: 300,000-900,000 users
• Cost per Active User: $132-$396/month

Step 8: Business Model Implications

Revenue Requirements for Viability:

Peak Concurrent	Context	Monthly Cost	Break-even per User*	Users Needed**
1K	8K	$2.98M	$99	30,000+
1K	32K	$11.9M	$396	30,000+
5K	8K	$14.9M	$99	150,000+
5K	32K	$59.4M	$396	150,000+
10K	8K	$29.7M	$99	300,000+
10K	32K	$119M	$396	300,000+

*Conservative pricing for break-even **Minimum active users for economic viability

Step 9: Optimization Impact on Capacity

Memory Optimization Stack Benefits:

• Grouped Query Attention (GQA): 4x capacity increase
• PagedAttention: 60% efficiency improvement
• Dynamic batching: 2.5x throughput improvement
• Combined optimization: 6-8x capacity increase

Optimized Active User Capacity:

Peak Concurrent	Standard Capacity	Optimized Capacity	Improvement
1K	30K-90K users	180K-720K users	6-8x
5K	150K-450K users	900K-3.6M users	6-8x
10K	300K-900K users	1.8M-7.2M users	6-8x

Step 10: Practical Deployment Recommendations

Conservative Enterprise Approach

Target: 1K peak concurrent, 8K context

• Infrastructure: 551 H100s ($2.98M/month)
• User capacity: 30,000-90,000 active users
• Business model: $50-100/user/month subscription

Growth-Oriented Approach

Target: 5K peak concurrent, 8K context

• Infrastructure: 2,752 H100s ($14.9M/month)
• User capacity: 150,000-450,000 active users
• Business model: $35-99/user/month subscription

Scale Platform Approach

Target: 10K peak concurrent, optimized deployment

• Infrastructure: 1,375 H100s with optimization ($7.4M/month)
• User capacity: 1.8M-7.2M active users
• Business model: $5-25/user/month freemium model

Final Infrastructure Planning Matrix

Target Peak	Recommended Context	Production GPUs	Monthly Cost	Active User Capacity
1K Concurrent	8K-16K	550-1,100	$3.0M-$5.9M	30K-90K active
5K Concurrent	8K-16K	2,750-5,500	$14.9M-$29.7M	150K-450K active
10K Concurrent	8K-16K	5,500-11,000	$29.7M-$59.4M	300K-900K active